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Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 11

by: DavidNYC

Sun Mar 21, 2010 at 6:58 PM EDT


Here he goes again on his own - goin' down the only road he's ever known.

AZ-Sen (R) (3/16, likely voters, 1/20 in parens):

John McCain (R-inc): 48 (53)
J.D. Hayworth (R): 41 (31)
Other: 3 (3)
Undecided: 8 (8)
(MoE: ±4%)

AZ-Gov (R) (3/17, likely voters, 1/20 in parens):

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 20 (29)
Dean Martin (R): 21 (31)
Buz Mills (R): 19 (n/a)
John Munger (R): 10 (7)
Other: 7 (8)
Undecided: 23 (20)
(MoE: ±4%)

CA-Gov (3/15, likely voters, 2/15 in parens):

Jerry Brown (D): 40 (43)
Meg Whitman (R): 40 (43)
Other: 6 (6)
Undecided: 14 (8)

Jerry Brown (D): 42 (46)
Steve Poizner (R): 27 (34)
Other: 13 (7)
Undecided: 18 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

CA-Sen (3/15, likely voters, 2/15 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (46)
Carly Fiorina (R): 40 (42)
Other: 4 (7)
Undecided: 10 (5)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (45)
Tom Campbell (R): 41 (41)
Other: 6 (4)
Undecided: 10 (10)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (47)
Chuck DeVore (R): 40 (42)
Other: 4 (6)
Undecided: 9 (5)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Gov (3/17, likely voters, 2/17 in parens):

Roy Barnes (D): 41 (37)
John Oxendine (R): 41 (45)
Other: 6 (7)
Undecided: 11 (10)

Roy Barnes (D): 40 (37)
Nathan Deal (R): 43 (43)
Other: 5 (7)
Undecided: 13 (14)

Roy Barnes (D): 39 (36)
Karen Handel (R): 42 (45)
Other: 5 (5)
Undecided: 14 (14)

Roy Barnes (D): 40 (37)
Eric Johnson (R): 38 (37)
Other: 6 (8)
Undecided: 16 (18)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Sen (3/17, likely voters, 2/17 in parens):

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 52 (49)
Generic Dem: 31 (36)
Other: 5 (4)
Undecided: 12 (12)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Gov (3/16, likely voters, 2/8 in parens):

Jack Wagner (D): 33 (28)
Tom Corbett (R): 46 (49)
Other: 6 (5)
Undecided: 16 (17)

Joe Hoeffel (D): 28 (29)
Tom Corbett (R): 49 (51)
Other: 5 (5)
Undecided: 18 (15)

Dan Onorato (D): 29 (26)
Tom Corbett (R): 46 (52)
Other: 7 (5)
Undecided: 17 (17)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Sen (D) (3/15, likely voters, 2/8 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 48 (51)
Joe Sestak (D): 37 (36)
Other: 5 (4)
Undecided: 9 (9)
(MoE: ±5%)

WI-Gov (3/16, likely voters, 2/17 in parens):

Tom Barrett (D): 42 (42)
Mark Neumann (R): 46 (44)
Other: 4 (4)
Undecided: 8 (10)

Tom Barrett (D): 42 (40)
Scott Walker (R): 48 (49)
Other: 2 (1)
Undecided: 8 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

WI-Sen (3/16, likely voters, 2/17 in parens):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 45 (43)
Tommy Thompson (R): 47 (48)
Other: 3 (6)
Undecided: 4 (4)

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 51 (47)
Dave Westlake (R): 35 (37)
Other: 5 (6)
Undecided: 10 (10)

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 49 (47)
Terrence Wall (R): 40 (39)
Other: 3 (6)
Undecided: 9 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

DavidNYC :: Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 11
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Given the specifics of each
and Scotty Outlier in general, these are all pretty good numbers for Team Blue... except PA Gov, big issues there.

Scotty polling Generic Dem in Georgia is pretty weasly on his part, since in other cases he grabs the best Rep name available.

And as for the Arizona poll, great news for John McCain!


The PA-Sen #'s are perhaps most interesting
Despite aggressively cozying up to the left, Specter's hardly nailed down his (new) party's nomination. I have to wonder if Sestak's now trumping him among moderate/conservative Dems.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

They say rust never sleeps- nor apparently does Ras. polling
AZ-Sen. McCain went from 22 to only 7 points ahead??
Wish we had a tier 1 strong candidate on deck here to take advantage of this  potential upcoming Repub bloody primary.
It must be all anti-Washington mania.

How big a slap in the face is this?
When you have been a senator for a state for 20+ years, your party's nominee for president and then you're booted when running for re-election in your own state.

I hope that Hayworth wins just becuase I don't think there has ever been a fall from being a presidential candidate to unemployed by will of the voters in such a short time span.  It's kinda hilarious.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
Running for President can have a negative effect on one's popularity back home
I recall Kerry's approval ratings in Massachusetts plummeted after 2004.  

[ Parent ]
I really don't buy Ras at all on AZ-Sen (R)......
That's a joke.  Nothing has happened to sour Arizonans on McCain over just the past couple months.  On the contrary, he's become a solid right-winger, across-the-board, for the entire Obama Administration.

Chuck Todd has made the very smart point that what Rasmussen measures best far out from an election is voter intensity.  I think that's right, I think the most committed voters are far more likely to walk through an entire Rasmussen robocall.  And that's what Ras is picking up in AZ-Sen.  It's just not a representative sample so far out.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
but that would also mean they're more likely to vote in a primary
A low interest affair.  plus hayworth has until august to pound mccain over nonexistant slights the teabaggers think are real.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Buz Mills?!
  Is Some Dude going to win the Republican gubernatorial primary?
  His website hits all the usual right-wing points, and nothing more.  

24, Male, GA-05

Come on, Jan, don't fail us now!!!


[ Parent ]
WI-Sen
Has anyone other than Scotty polled this?

The only pollster
Is someone even worse - WPRI, a conservative think tank (we wrote about them on the FP a week or so ago).

The good news is that R2K will be polling here soon... I think this week or next.


[ Parent ]
I agree...
...with the thought that these are greta numbers for Dems pretty much across the board.

As for Pennsylvania, 2 of the 3 candidates are from Wetsern PA, and only Hoeffel has ever been heard of really in Philadelphia, which is where most Dem votes come from.  After the Dem primary, the Philadelphia votes will come home to roost with the Dem nominee.  Not guaranteeing a win, but certainly the nominee will break 40% and 45% is almost a guarantee.

The whole east part of state vs west part of state concept won't play out if both parties nominess are from West PA, but that just means the Dem nominee will just focus his entire campaign on Philly.


Where's PA-Sen for the general?
I can't think of a good reason not to ask a Specter vs. Toomey question. Why isn't Scotty releasing it?


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