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SSP Daily Digest: 3/19 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 2:25 PM EDT


CO-Sen: 50% is a totally arbitrary mark in the Colorado caucus straw poll, and doesn't mean anything from a legal perspective, but Andrew Romanoff's total has fallen below the magic mark as ballots keep getting counted. Romanoff's at 49.9% to Michael Bennet's 41.9% with 20 precincts left to be counted, which, in the battle of perceptions, takes a tiny bit of shiny luster off his victory.

IA-Gov: Actually, maybe the departure of Jonathan Narcisse from the Democratic gubernatorial primary isn't the good news for Chet Culver that it originally seemed. The gadflyish Narcisse has decided to run as an independent instead, and if he a) gets on the ballot and b) gets any votes, it seems likelier they might come from Culver's column than that of the GOP nominee (although he does talk a lot of shrinking government, so who knows).

MD-Gov: Prince George's Co. Exec Wayne Curry has occasionally flirted publicly with the idea of a challenge to Martin O'Malley in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, and he's popping up with the idea again today. (O'Malley already faces a challenge from the right in the primary from former state Del. George Owings). Meanwhile, Dems are launching some pre-emptive salvos at possible GOP candidate Bob Ehrlich, accusing him of using employees at his law firm to do campaign work for him.

NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B: Apparently there's been some behind-the-scenes pressure on ex-Rep. Rick Lazio to get out of the GOP governor's primary, where he's aroused little enthusiasm despite having the field to himself for months, and into the Senate race instead -- to clear the way for ostensibly prized recruit Steve Levy, the Suffolk Co. Exec who appears set to change parties and run as a Republican. Lazio says no way is he switching, though, assailing Levy as a liberal Democrat who called the stimulus package "manna from heaven."

AZ-03: The John McCain/J.D. Hayworth primary fight is turning into one of the main fracture lines in the primary further down the ballot to replace retiring GOP Rep. John Shadegg. Ex-state Sen. Jim Waring and Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker have both endorsed McCain, while former state Rep. Sam Crump backs Hayworth. Former state Sen. Pamela Gorman says she isn't getting involved.

GA-07: Looks like GOP state Rep. Clay Cox is sitting in the catbird's seat, as far as replacing retiring Rep. John Linder. Not only did his main rival, state Sen. Don Balfour, drop out of the race (and out of politics altogether) yesterday, leaving Cox alone in the field, but now state Sen. David Shafer (who many initially expected to run to succeed Linder) gave Cox his endorsement.

ID-01: This is terribly disappointing... ex-Rep. Bill Sali called a big press conference today, just before Idaho's filing deadline, to announce something, hopefully another kamikaze run to get his House seat back. (Or why stop there? Why not a primary run against Mike Crapo?) Unfortunately, it was just to endorse state Rep. Raul Labrador in the primary.

MA-09: Is Stephen Lynch opening himself up to a primary challenge? Despite meeting personally with President Obama, he says that he is "firmly a 'no' vote" on healthcare reform. Lynch has always received strong support from labor, but with unions whipping this vote with unusual fervor, perhaps things might change on that front. (D) Here's one possible explanation for Lynch mugging for the cameras today... Lynch may be thinking about a challenge to Scott Brown in 2012; he sorta-deflected questions on that front.

NC-08: Tim d'Annunzio, the self-funding Republican who gets treated as the frontrunner in the GOP field to challenge freshman Rep. Larry Kissell, just keeps on pulling hot-headed stunts that threaten his status as a credible candidate. D'Annunzio got into a physical confrontation with Republican state Rep. Justin Burr (no punching, just lots of poking) and then issued a press release attacking the state party chair, Tom Fetzer, for "coordinated personal attacks" in the wake of the incident.

NY-24: Speaking of strategically-challenged "no" votes, it looks like the Working Families Party isn't bluffing on its threats to cut loose Rep. Mike Arcuri. They're actively recruiting a challenger to run against him on their own ballot line, and the SEIU is supportive of the effort.

Fundraising: Here's a really interesting chart, which plots the DW/Nominate scores (i.e. ideological position) of Congress members against what sectors of the economy their contributions come from. The results aren't too surprising: motion pictures, professors, printing and publishing, public schools, and lawyers lean the most left (darned cultural elite!) and oil and gas, auto dealers, construction, energy production, and agriculture lean most right. Health care and real estate seem to be smack in the middle.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/19 (Afternoon Edition)
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ID 1
I'm really hoping to keep this seat.  Mimick may be worthless in the house but as a senator he could help us with a lot of rules and parlimentary votes.

Until we've seen polling
I wouldn't count him out. It could end up being like Bobby Bright where everyone assumes he's a goner, and then all of we see polling of him at 50+%

22, Male, IN-02/09

[ Parent ]
Oh no
I fully expect him and Bright to pull it out.  I think where dems are going to get hurt is in places like PA/OH retiring members seats and more swingish areas.  Places where we have a good candidate that fits the district's lean I'm not overly concerned about.

[ Parent ]
OH?
We don't have any members of the House retiring or leaving their seat in Ohio.  In fact as far as I know nobody was thinking about retirement this cycle either.  

Where we might get hurt is that 3 of our democratic reps are freshmen, and only one of them (John Boccieri) is in good shape for re-election.  The other two, Steve Dreihaus and Mary Kilroy, are really in a tight spot.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
Sorry
The , is my friend.  I meant in the midwest where we had big gains on Obama coattails, retiring member's seats, and in places where our member never did or doesn't represent his/her district as well.

[ Parent ]
As unlikely as it was for him to win a House seat
I give him almost no chance to become a Senator. He'd have to be running against someone as extremist and unlikeable as Sali. As I said, almost no chance.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Most would have probablyh said tha tabout
Scott Brown
Mike Castle (a long time ago)
Michael Bennet
just to name a few.  Either way if he gets well liked in his district and pulls in say 70 percent then it is possible he could win statewide.  Of course that me be a couple of years down the line.

[ Parent ]
There's always the exception that proves the rule, but I don't think you've found it
I'm not sure Castle was such a huge surprise, was he? I think Delaware may have been more conservative then. And I don't understand the inclusion of Bennet. He was appointed, and Colorado is a purple state. So that leaves us with Brown. Perfect case in point of a good candidate running against an incompetent one.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
What changed in Idaho?
They used to elect excellent Ds statewide (Church, Andrus), but are now considered to be the reddest of states.

I know Richard Stallings tried to use the old Frank Church formula in his attempt to get from the House to the Senate sometime back in the '90s, and that didn't work.

It's not like the South where the Ds were the conservative party 50 years ago.

So what changed in Idaho? Why isn't it trending back like Montana? How is it that Freudenthal could have such success in Wyoming? Could his model work in Idaho?


[ Parent ]
Guns and Mormons
The Mormon population has been growing very quickly in Idaho while other populations are not growing very fast at all.  (Metro Boise is taking in some progressive Californians but it isn't enough to cancel out the large Mormon population)
Also Idaho is the only state with a large Mormon population and a large population that self-identifies as born again.
Wyoming and Montana are much more libertarian.  In the era of Frank Church, evangelicals weren't as politically polarized (in fact, Dems often won a majority of their vote).  

We can't stop here; this is bat country. -HST

[ Parent ]
I don't know what's changed
but it has gotten significantly redder over the long term, although the short term trend is slowly towards team blue.  I went through and looked at the differences between the national presidential vote and the Idaho presidential vote:

1988 - 19% more Republican
1992 - 20% more Republican
1996 - 27% more Republican
2000 - 39% more Republican
2004 - 35% more Republican
2006 - 33% more Republican

Clearly a huge trend towards the Republicans during the Clinton years.  Waco, the militia movement, Monica Lewinsky.  Ruby Ridge happened in Idaho, although it was under the Bush administration.  Any and all of that may have pushed Idahoans towards the Republicans.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Population Growth
Lots of ex-Californians moving in, who thought Orange County was becoming too liberal--and too Mexican.

[ Parent ]
Was already thinking Arcuri was a goner
A union/WFP backed challenge from the left in the general election would just ensure that.  

And give seat to Republican Richard Hanna)))
Not the worst type of candidate, BTW - a libertarian-minded fiscal conservative and social moderate. But isn't he too conservative fiscally for unions and WFP?

[ Parent ]
Arcuri's not worth the trouble
If the guy is so politically inept that he can't figure out that flip-flopping like this will piss off his base while not helping make up the loss, then it's better he loses now so that we can have an easier time protecting our other incumbents.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01


[ Parent ]
Agreed
I don't know how Arcuri thinks he is going to see any improvement in his situation by voting no.  

I have NY-24 at toss up, but it's possible that it could be in the lean R column by next month if the fallout from the HCR vote is strong.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
In most cases, I think a congressman knows his district better
than most of us.

Perhaps this is one rare case otherwise, but I guess the test comes in November.


[ Parent ]
Sure
But so is Arcuri.

Plus eliminating or drastically gerrymandering Arcuri's district for 2012 is quite doable, especially since there's no longer the need to protect Massa.

It'll hurt slightly in the short term, but in the longer term we're better off without the moron.


[ Parent ]
Arcuri's potential challenger from the left is thinking of running in the Democratic primary as well
http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

He's epidemiologist Les Roberts.  Hopefully if he runs it will be on the Democratic line, giving us a shot at primarying Arcuri and holding the seat.  

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


[ Parent ]
Eh
if he makes it to the general (which I doubt happens if he votes no on hcr) he would have lost anyways. He's a piss poor campaigner who nearly lost in our best year, he was going to be a goner anyways, better to have the narrative be he lost beacause he pissed off the left.  

[ Parent ]
Narcisse
Narcisse supports the tea party candidate Dave Funk who is challenging Leonard Boswell for Congress.  If Dems are voting for him they need to do their research.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


there's a rumor going around
That the Iowa Family Policy Center might endorse Narcisse in the general. They are backing Bob Vander Plaats in the primary and have already said they won't support Branstad against Culver.

If the IFPC throws its weight behind Narcisse, I would almost guarantee that he gets a negligible number of Democratic votes.


[ Parent ]
NY-24, good!
Stupak might be a jackass and a schmuck, but at least I can kinda figure out where he's coming from (even if the underlying reason doesn't make much sense).

Arcuri is just being stupid, and his stupidity is going to cost him his seat. At least we won't have to try to prop up his ass come redistricting...

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01


MD-Gov
That's FORMER PG County Executive Wayne Curry.

Male, 22, DC-At Large

Any future Curry may have had in MD politics
died when he endorsed Michael Steele over Ben Cardin in '06.

[ Parent ]
Because I grew up in suburban DC
...I find the white/black and DC/Baltimore jockeying in Maryland state politics really fascinating. (I find it really unlikely that Curry would actually primary O'Malley, but I haven't lived in-state for a while and don't have a sense of whether whether there's any personal animus going on). I continue to think that Anthony Brown is the next occupant of Mikulski's seat, just because he short-circuits things on that front.

I don't think its O'Malley personally
I remember Curry rattling the saber with Glendening back when he was in office.

Male, 22, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Glendening's a special case
Everyone hated Glendening. But yeah, agreed, there's a strong sense that P.G. County officials should get more of a voice in statewide office; that said, I think Curry is only going to get one shot at this and is likely to lose any race against O'Malley, so if the two men got along, I think he'd hold off.

[ Parent ]
I always voted for Glendening--and would again
But, jeez, he's a fucking asshole.

[ Parent ]
WTF
After narrowly outraising its GOP counterpart in January, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee lost ground during the month of February, according to reports set to be filed with the Federal Election Commission.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $4.6 million in February to the DSCC's $4 million. The DSCC also banked about a million dollars less than the NRSC last month after spending $2.7 million. The Republican committee spent $2.2 million.

Those totals helped the NRSC cut into the DSCC's cash on hand advantage. The Republican committee ended the month with $12.9 million in the bank while the Democratic committee had $14.3 million in cash on hand.

That's a much closer margin than just five months ago when the DSCC reported a $5.1 million cash on hand lead over the NRSC at the end of September.

The DSCC continues to carry $417,000 in debt while the NRSC is debt free.

Why the hell can't we do better than this?????


because we can't govern
I'm not giving another dollar to the DSCC for the forseeable future. I am sure I'm not alone.

[ Parent ]
Wisconsin Governor Numbers
Walker-48%
Barret-42%

Neumann-46%
Barret-42%
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...      

36, Dem, IN-09


Improvement from the last one
IIRC.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Lynch, you're not helping yourself.
Arcuri, you neither.

Haha, I typed "Lunch" by accident at first.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


Profiles in cowardice.
Arcuri's for the public option when he doesn't have a significant challenger, but against the compromise bill when he does.  Go figure...

Lynch apparently has statewide ambitions and thinks he'll be on the right side of history by being a Joe Lieberman-like ass.  What he'll end up with is getting crunched by both sides of the political debate like Lieberman, and find himself with approvals in the 30's like Lieberman.

The worst thing is that for every jackass like Lynch, leadership has to whip some vulnerable freshman to make an unpopular vote in a tough district.  What a jackass!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Amen!
Does he really think voting against something for the left is going to be portrayed that way?  All the attack ads are going to say is, Lynch voted against health care reform, not he voted for healthcare reform because it wasn't liberal enough!

And what type of constituent is going to like someone for 'not voting for something because it's not liberal enough'?  That positions speaks nothing to moderation, to compromise, to pragmatism and solely towards being a wing nut.  It's a winning position (maybe) in a Dem primary but a GE, not a chance.


[ Parent ]
I
would probably support Martha Coakley over Lynch. Has he said if abortion is playing into his decision? I know he's anti choice, and despite what he may claim I really doubt he is voting against it because it's not liberal enough.

36, Dem, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Nothing on abortion
All he's saying is not liberal enough. Wants the excise tax instead of the cadillac one.

25, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
There's a lot of scuttlebutt
that Lynch's decision is really based on abortion.  He's not saying that, but this isn't the first I have heard of it on the interwebs today.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Another take on it and a reply to a comment on another thread
(specifically http://www.swingstateproject.c... )

Dear Representative Lynch,

Just because a Republican won Massachusetts does not mean that you are representing an R+10 Georgia district where you need to tack right to win the general election.

Your frienly reminder,
Glenn Magus Harvy

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
haha misspelled name
Harvey.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Boyd's yes vote on HCR
shows the value of primary challenges.  No way he votes yes if Lawson were not all over him in the primary.  I do hope Boyd wins the primary though, as there is little chance that Lawson (or just about any other Dem up there in the panhandle) could carry the seat.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

ID-Sen
The Idaho deadline was today. Did any Democrats file to run against Mike Crapo? His reelection bid obviously isn't likely to be competitive, but surely the Idaho Democrats want somebody to run against him. It's not a good thing for a party to leave races uncontested, since you never know when you'll have a Scott Brown or Kay Hagan type of situation.

Ellsworth looks like he's staking his Senate bid on this vote
He's a yes again.  Got to admit he's showing a lot of political courage for doing this: he's going to be attacked relentlessly until November but he's doing the right thing anyway.  May not be the most politically wise thing to do but right now I'm proud he's our nominee.  

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


Source?
I haven't seen a confirmation by Ellsworth in either direction anywhere. Great (and to me, unexpected) news though.  

[ Parent ]
Sorry, I usually remember to link this stuff!
http://theplumline.whorunsgov....

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


[ Parent ]
I just sent Ellsworth's office an email complaining about this
But it's probably smart politics. It's too late for Ellsworth to flee from this political trainwreck. He'll just look opportunistic and unprincipled if he flips now. More to the point, if this passes, it might enjoy a better reputation by November.

Indiana isn't exactly some dyed-in-the-wool conservative state. Obama won it (unlike Ellsworth's district), and it wasn't based on a flash-in-the-pan turnout of black voters as in other areas. Center-left Democrats can win here if they actually try. Ellsworth has to articulate his reservations about the bill, and he would've been better off if Obama had abandoned it insteaed of ramming it through, but at the end of the day this was the best move for him. Ellsworth has sharp political instincts.


[ Parent ]
Voting yes after voting yes previously is the smart thing to do
You win no one over by flip-flopping here and stand to lose a lot more.

This isn't particularly courageous (though still extremely welcome) so mach as it's smart (unlike Arcuri or Lynch).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01


[ Parent ]
Just let me have my idealistic moment!
But seriously, I think he'd be in less bad shape if he flip-floped.  He'd be moving in the direction of more voters while most people who've flip-flopped or been perceived as flip-flopping such as John Kerry, moved away from more voters.  Nate Silver had a good post about this back in July of 2008:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

I think Ellsworth has more to worry about for being portrayed as a tax-and-spend liberal than as a flip-flopper.  Not that either is a great label but I think he's taking the more dangerous route here.

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


[ Parent ]
Disagree
The base is already wary of him. He already voted it for it once so they would focus on that and attack him for political expediency. This way he can argue his position in a positive rather than a negative defense.

[ Parent ]
But he already voted for it once
He'll be portrayed as a tax-and-spend liberal as it stands, only then he'd be portrayed as a tax-and-spend liberal who doesn't even stand by his own convictions.

This gives him the chance to defend the merits of the bill rather than have to explain why he voted for such a crappy% bill in the first place.

%It's almost an acknowledgment of how crappy a bill is if you refuse to vote for it.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01


[ Parent ]
Actually
he is doing the politically wise thing here. If he did vote no this time it wouldn't make any difference they (North Carolina Dan or Congressman Crazy) would still hammer him for supporting a government takeover of health care. They would also nail him for flip flopping. Also his support will hopefully help drive out the base. His HCR vote may hurt him in the general but voting no now wouldn't help him at all.  

36, Dem, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Authenticity
Losing it is the most devastating thing that can happen to a politician. That and getting caught having gay sex in bathrooms.

[ Parent ]
Okay, you guys have convinced me
What's weird is I've been arguing this kind of thing for months.  Guess my surprise/happiness about Ellsworth took over.  I think he could have squirmed out of his first vote by growling about Nancy Pelosi or something but he isn't as big of a risk taker as I gave him credit for.  Still, proud he's our nominee and proud he took the risk in November even before he thought he'd be running statewide this year.

However, Markley, Boccieri, and now Kosmos are definitely taking a huge risk.  They deserve some kudos (and maybe some cash) for it.  Though of course I wish they'd voted yes in November they are taking one for the team now at least.      

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


[ Parent ]
Ok I'll admit I probably jumped the gun here
Is it too late to get a refund on my "I <3 Ellsworth" tattoo?

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


[ Parent ]
Nope, you're stuck with it
For the record, whether it was smart or brave, the vote still makes me want that same tattoo :)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01


[ Parent ]
Kosmos switches to yes.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com...

Unlike Ellsworth I think this is unquestionably a gutsy decision.  If she voted no she wouldn't have to worry about being labeled a flip-flopper, but she is now opening herself up to more attacks.  

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


I
think this is a case of MMM (not going to attempt spelling that name)jackass's like Lynch and others are forcing more venerable freshman members to make a politically unpopular choice.  

36, Dem, IN-09

[ Parent ]
True, but at least she's not passing the buck to someone else
Besides, one could make the argument (I'm not going to but many will) that it's better for Kosmos if HCR fails and she's on the no side than for it to succeed with her on the yes side.  Of course primary/ third party challenges complicate that thinking.  

And I'm not sure who you mean by MMM.  But I can't wait to primary Lynch.

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


[ Parent ]
MMM= Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky?
Being the mother-in-law to the daughter of the Secretary of State and the former President isn't the worst concession prize in the world...

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


[ Parent ]
Dont joke like that
or some winger will now claim Clinton sold his daughter for a budget vote...

33, living in Germany  

[ Parent ]
You mean they haven't already?
That would be an interesting conversation between MMM and Bill Clinton.  "Marjorie, please sacrifice your career for my agenda!  If you do this twenty years from now your son will be able to marry my daughter."  "Fifteen years.  And make it a Jewish wedding."  "Seventeen years and the Jewish wedding."  "Done!"

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


[ Parent ]
Add
to that the conversation a little about politics. He can run for Chelsea's Senate seat when she gets elected President. Hey, it's the Clintons, you never know :)      

36, Dem, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky
Wikipedia article here.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Who should primary Lynch?
Could anyone give me a list of potential candidates? See comments below for MMM.  

36, Dem, IN-09

[ Parent ]
There must be some Softie state legislator who wants a promotion
But I haven't seen anyone's name come up on any blogs.  Maybe some city councilman or something.

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


[ Parent ]
If you mean Southie...
Billy Bulger.  Just kidding.  Whitey Bulger.  Unfortunately busy atm.

There is of course Raymond Flynn.  But being a high functioning alchoholic came back to bite him when he ran against Capuano.  Not sure he has dried out yet.

But on a more serious note.  Former Boston City Council President and Mayoral candidate Michael Flaherty.

Flynn pal and former Boston police commisioner Mickey Roach.  Not sure how old he is.  And can be conservative and prickly.  But very pro-union.  Then again so was Lynch.

I know nothing about State Rep. Brian Wallace who is retiring this year.  All I know about State Senator Jack Hart is he now hosts the St Patrick's Day roast that Billy Bulger used to host.  http://www.jackhart.org/

But honestly the district is gerrymandered to squeeze South Boston in it.  You'll probably find someone better outside the small conservative insular borders of South Boston.


[ Parent ]
It's funny, softie made so much sense when I wrote it...
But good list.  About how much of the district is South Boston?

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


[ Parent ]
Given how gentrified it has become,
maybe "Softie" was more appropriate than you thought!

[ Parent ]
About 5% eom


20, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)

[ Parent ]
It's no longer the district
that elected Louise Day Hicks in 1970.

[ Parent ]
Disagree
That would only be if she flipped at the buzzer.

She won by a pretty huge margin in her first election, FWIW.


[ Parent ]
It helped she was running against a pretty corrupt guy.
Her opponents haven't been too impressive so far but the district still voted for McCain (if only narrowly): this isn't exactly friendly territory we're talking about.

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


[ Parent ]
True
but that's just an aside.  

[ Parent ]
Interestingly
If we go by Obama performance there are not currently 216 House Dems in districts he won. And some of those are voting no. Worst case Arthur Davis at 58 then Lynch at 127. 216 is actually John Boccieri.

200. VA 2 Nye (D) 51 49
201. TX 23 Rodriguez (D) 51 48
202. NY 24 Arcuri (D) 51 48
203. NY 20 Murphy (D) 51 48
204. NY 19 Hall (D) 51 48
205. MN 1 Walz (D) 51 47
206. KS 3 Moore (D) 51 48
207. MI 1 Stupak (D) 50 48
208. PA 3 Dahlkemper (D) 49 49
209. NY 13 McMahon (D) 49 51
210. NM 2 Teague (D) 49 50
211. IN 9 Hill (D) 49 50
212. FL 24 Kosmas (D) 49 51
213. CO 4 Markey (D) 49 50
214. VA 5 Perriello (D) 48 51
215. PA 17 Holden (D) 48 51
216. OH 16 Boccieri (D) 48 50
217. OH 6 Wilson (D) 48 50
218. NC 11 Shuler (D) 47 52
219. NC 7 McIntyre (D) 47 52
220. MN 7 Peterson (D) 47 50
221. IN 8 Ellsworth (D) 47 51
222. CO 3 Salazar (D) 47 50
223. AZ 5 Mitchell (D) 47 52
224. SC 5 Spratt (D) 46 53
225. AZ 8 Giffords (D) 46 52
226. SD AL Herseth (D) 45 53
227. PA 10 Carney (D) 45 54
228. OH 18 Space (D) 45 52
229. ND AL Pomeroy (D) 45 53
230. FL 2 Boyd (D) 45 54
231. PA 4 Altmire (D) 44 55
232. AZ 1 Kirkpatrick (D) 44 54
233. AR 2 Snyder (D) 44 54
234. TN 8 Tanner (D) 43 56
235. KY 6 Chandler (D) 43 55
236. GA 8 Marshall (D) 43 56
237. WV 3 Rahall (D) 42 56
238. WV 1 Mollohan (D) 42 57
239. VA 9 Boucher (D) 40 59
240. MD 1 Kratovil (D) 40 58
241. UT 2 Matheson (D) 39 57
242. AR 4 Ross (D) 39 58
243. MS 1 Childers (D) 38 62
244. MO 4 Skelton (D) 38 61
245. AR 1 Berry (D) 38 59
246. TN 6 Gordon (D) 37 62
247. LA 3 Melancon (D) 37 61
248. ID 1 Minnick (D) 36 62
249. AL 2 Bright (D) 36 63
250. TN 4 Davis (D) 34 64
251. OK 2 Boren (D) 34 66
252. TX 17 Edwards (D) 32 67
253. MS 4 Taylor (D) 32 68


[ Parent ]
Great find
Guess more people will have to take one for the team than I thought.

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


[ Parent ]
Indeed!
I am going to grad school (parents still working on getting me to go back to law school, booooring) and this is what I plan on doing my thesis on, how congressional redistricting creates a set of districts that does not represent the US.  And this is one area I want to study, how liberals being packed into urban districts makes it harder for us to pass legislation, with the Stupak vote being my initial light bulb and wondering why the hell politicians tell us that they dont have votes to repeal DADT when polling shows massive majorities in the liberals favor.

Obama won by a bigger margin, won more states, and still didnt win more CD's compared to Bush, which will be another thing to go through history and count up.

This all based off of another paper I did for school, which was inspired by everything I read here.  Thanks SSP crew!  Im hoping I can somehow through in some homemade Dave's maps into it.


[ Parent ]
The congressional districts have a bias toward Republican-leaning distrits
and heck, the states themselves do too.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
If you could come up with a rationale
for mixing urban with suburban - or anything that lessens the number of D+infinty districts,

to better represent the US as a whole -

as demographics move in our direction -

that would be quite valuable... I presume there are political consulting groups who'd love to hire someone who can work different paradigms for redistricting.

Hope you're good at statistics!


[ Parent ]
Sounds really interesting
Good luck you on that!  Since this will be the first redistricting under a Democratic Justice Department in 50 years do you think that will make a difference?  

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond


[ Parent ]
vulnerable not venerable


36, Dem, IN-09

[ Parent ]

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