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CA-Sen: Field Poll Shows Boxer in a Tough Fight

by: James L.

Thu Mar 18, 2010 at 3:51 PM EDT


Field Poll (pdf) (3/9-15, likely voters, 1/5-17 in parentheses):

Tom Campbell (R): 28 (30)
Carly Fiorina (R): 22 (25)
Chuck DeVore (R): 9 (6)
Undecided: 41 (39)
(MoE: ±5.5%)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (48)
Tom Campbell (R): 44 (38)
Undecided: 13 (14)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45 (50)
Carly Fiorina (R): 44 (35)
Undecided: 11 (15)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45 (51)
Chuck DeVore (R): 41 (34)
Undecided: 14 (15)
(MoE: ±3.7%)

Shit just got real.
James L. :: CA-Sen: Field Poll Shows Boxer in a Tough Fight
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CA-Sen: Field Poll Shows Boxer in a Tough Fight | 34 comments
Result of unbalanced action
All the action is on the R side and thus interest is focused there. Saw this during the 2004 and 2002 cycles but when GE times comes around...fugghadeboouit! Even then, how many CA statewide polls on federal races have we seen where the Dem always overperformed their final results. Conclusion, Boxer need not take anything for granted but she won't lose. Period!

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
I have this odd feeling..
You would have said this about the Mass Senate election as well.

I think Boxer should be a little concerned this time around. Not saying she's going to lose, but your last line about her not taking anything for granted is the most important.  

[ Parent ]
I love this attitude!
I think you should become Boxer's campaign manager. You'd be excellent!
[ Parent ]
Nothing wrong with the attitude
Confidence that when she campaigns she wins.
[ Parent ]
I actually agree
I live in Los Angeles and so far, I have seen about a million Whitman ads and even seen an ad for Steve Poizner. But I have yet to see a single ad talking up Democratic candidates. The Whitman ads have all been the tough on crime, balanced budget blah blah typical republican ads, Poizner's ad was trying to play to the Republican base, anti-illegal immigrants, etc...

In the case of a vacuum from one party, the other party is obviously going to start doing better. Brown and Boxer need to start to get on the air, and soon. I've lived in California all my life, and I can honestly say, I don't see Boxer losing. She has never been as popular as Diane Feinstein, but I can't see voters of California booting her for a Republican, unless the Republican can honestly convince voters that they're not completely bat shit crazy, which honestly doesn't happen very often here in California.  

[ Parent ]
Exactly, they may want to start a bit early this time around
Just make sure they start defining themselves before their opponents.  Start trashing the GOP now, say this is why America is screwed up, because the GOP in Washington wont work with us, point to with a very nice choice quote from McConnel

It was absolutely critical that everybody be together because if the proponents of the bill were able to say it was bipartisan, it tended to convey to the public that this is O.K., they must have figured it out

This is the message the Democrats need to start hammering home immediately.  They are trying, while the GOP has done absolutely nothing and even admits to that being their strategy.  And then blah blah, Tom Campbell wants to go to Washington to continue the GOP's job of being worthless.

And then liberal groups need to get people out to vote and we should be okay.  Because this will be bullshit if we all go down because of a couple of douchebag conservadems who just wanted to posture.  The fat lady aint singing yet, and incumbents like Boxer need to start hauling ass.

[ Parent ]
ugh, that's why I meant to hit preview
but whatever, same link, just more emphasized  ;)
[ Parent ]
If the situation was reversed...
..and there was a contested Democratic primary and the Democrat was ahead you'd say it was good news.  Or that even there was room for growth once the bad feelings of a contests contest subsided.

This cannot be spinned as good news.  It is however early and there is plenty of time for things to change.  And the important thing is that Boxer sees these numbers and knows she has to react and has to fight.  Just as Feinstein in 1994 saw she needed to react to Michael Huffington.  As opposed to say James Sasser who never saw what was coming until it was too late.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
It is not bad news though
The worst of the negative primary isn't through yet, and Boxer cannot afford to be up on the air yet, unless she gets a huge, multi-million dollar fundraiser from Obama.
[ Parent ]
Haha, great video!
Though I'm not sure how appropriate it is.

I'd save it for after several more polls show the same thing.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

When
I first saw this poll; I thought what if she gets scared and retires? However when I actually thought about I didn't see it being the worst thing ever. If she did retire we have a great base, and honestly someone who is not viewed as polarizing as Boxer could do better (Sorry I love you Babs). Loretta Sanchez would be competitive statewide; she would appeal to Latinos and moderates. I'm not saying that I am rooting for Boxer to retire, but it wouldn't be horrible if she did. I am by NO means trying to say she isn't a good Senator, because she's a GREAT one.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Boxer can't retire now.
The filing deadline passed last week.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Never mind then
Wow I feel stupid.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
plus I'm not so sure about
Loretta Sanchez. I think the Democratic base would be very hesitant about replacing Feinstein with a similarly lukewarm Democrat.  
[ Parent ]
Reluctantly
I have to move both this and the gubernatorial race to tossup from leans Dem. But I still think that both Boxer and Brown take it in the end.
In Boxer case a lot will depend on opponents.
She will surely beat DeVore and (more narrowly) Fiorina. Campbell, if he survives a primary, will be tough - he is far from stereotypical Republican candidate from California. But, by California's standards he has very little money...
[ Parent ]
Does Cambell have any Internet Billionaires behind him?
I could see Larry Ellison (Oracle) going whacko on this race.
[ Parent ]
Fixable, but this is going to be a slog
The good news is that Boxer is battle tested.  
Very true

[ Parent ]
A benefit of a competitive California
Is that it costs so much to advertise in the state that the GOP sinks a lot of money in order to "turn california red!" and it could divert funds from states they could be spending in where their chances are better.
But that also applies to the Democrats
I've heard this logic many times and it generally only makes sense if one side has a big monetary advantage over the other, which isn't the case this year.  
[ Parent ]
Boxer as the incumbent
Doesn't Boxer have a decent amount of CoH?  I don't know the fundraising numbers but if Boxer is ahead of her challenger she may not need to draw in much support from the DSCC, whereas the GOP candidate may need more outside assistance.  Haven't seen any fundraising numbers for state officials in awhile.  I probably just missed them.
[ Parent ]
Not too surprised
Remember this state elected Arnold twice. However you'd think after Massachusetts the Dems would go on the air early before their opponents define themselves.  
There aint no way CA goes red
Arney thoroughly wrecked this state.  Believe me, it won't be electing a state level republican in a LONG while.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Agreed.
I have already written diaries and comments that show that our state is about to become an impregnable fortress of Democratic might and will likely stay that way for the foreseeable future barring a MAJOR moderation effort by the GOP. And another work of mine in progress is the political changes in California since the early 20th century so I can show in detail how California is not going to be won by a Republican almost anywhere save a few districts anytime soon.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
This state
Is a lot more expensive than Massachusetts. Boxer would run out of money in a week if she tried to define her opponents now.
[ Parent ]
And it could really end up being any three of them
Now someone in a position like Meek could start running negative ads.  Negative ads painting Rubio as a wing-nut would both hurt him in the GE and help in the primary.

But yeah, Boxer is in a state and in a position where if she wants to run ads, it needs to be about herself and how awesome she is

[ Parent ]
Snore
Campbell is a competitive candidate, but as for the rest, let her campaign for, oh, five freaking minutes in September then get back to me.
I think the Obama fundraising trip for Boxer
was announced yesterday and now today we get this Field poll. Probably Boxer's internal polling was indicating what we just learned with this poll, and the call went out.
Boxer and the DNC will need a lot more dough than typical with all those GOP billionaires running in the top two CA races.
Tom Campbell is a billionaire?
Are you assuming Carly Fiorina will win the primary? She's not that rich either. Anyway, it's a good primary, competitive. Campbell will enter the general almost broke, which brokers good for Boxer later on. I really am not worried. Boxer has fought a lot of tough battles before in California.
[ Parent ]
Not that rich?
For some reason it seems impossible to find an up to date estimate of her net worth, but when she was at HP she had a net worth of 2.2 billion dollars. It may have declined since her screwing everything up, but I'd bet that she's still a billionaire at the very least.
[ Parent ]
Are you serious?
How does someone make that kind of money working for AT&T and then driving Packard into the ground?
[ Parent ]
How does someone make extremely bad business decisions
then get golden parachutes while the U.S. government has to bail out the company?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Good to know this in March as opposed to October
Barbara Boxer is a fighter, so any comparison to Martha Coakley is laughable.  She is seasoned, intelligent, and is a hard worker.  We will see Boxer win this race, probably in the high single digits, when the dust is settled.  I don't see Boxer's campaign being complacent.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
CA-Sen: Field Poll Shows Boxer in a Tough Fight | 34 comments

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