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SSP Daily Digest: 3/16 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue Mar 16, 2010 at 8:01 AM EDT


Our twice-daily digests are also open threads for any campaign-related news you might have. Interesting/helpful links always appreciated!

  • AR-Sen: State Sen. Gilbert Baker is jumping all over GOP primary opponent Rep. John Boozman for his extensive travels abroad on the taxpayer dime. In a statement, Baker promised that, as senator, he will be sure to visit Paris, London, and England - all towns in Arkansas.
  • CA-Sen: NOM, NOM, NOM. The haters at the National Organization for (Heterosexual-Only) Marriage have launched an ad campaign attacking Republican ex-Rep. Tom Campbell for supporting gay marriage. CQ describes it as a statewide ad buy, but at only $275,000, that doesn't get you very much in California. Meanwhile, Carlyfornia has drunk the winger kool-aid - while she supported cap-and-trade when stumping for John McCain two years ago, now she's against it. Of course.
  • FL-Sen: Heh - PPP asked Floridians who their favorite governors are out of the last five to hold office. Only 4% of Republicans answered Charlie Crist - fewer than the number who named either Dem Bob Graham or Dem Lawton Chiles.
  • PA-Sen: Republican pollster Susquehanna has GOPer Pat Toomey up over Arlen Specter by 42-36, in contrast to recent polls by Quinnipiac and Research 2000 showing Specter leading by that margin. Susquehanna didn't poll the Dem primary, though, and more weirdly, they didn't even test Joe Sestak against Toomey. Huh?
  • FL-22: Toward the bottom of an interesting, in-depth look at Base Connect (the sketchy GOP consultants formerly known as BMW Direct), Dave Weigel has a good catch. It turns out that the much-hyped vet Allen West is also a BMW client. He's raised $1.2 million this cycle, an extraordinary sum for a challenger, but check out that burn rate - he's spent over $500,000 so far. His opponent, Rep. Ron Klein, has only spent $95K. West still has a lot of cash on hand, but this revelation changes the picture somewhat.
  • NY-13: SEIU chief Andy Stern says that his organization will back independent candidacies against House Dems who vote against healthcare. It seems that Stern would prefer to challenge wayward Dems in primaries, but many filing deadlines have already passed. However, the one actual "nay" vote Stern cites, Rep. Mike McMahon, serves in New York, where the filing deadline does not close for quite some time. (And as per yesterday's bullet, the Working Families Party said they won't give their line to McMahon either.)
  • PA-06: The Pennsylvania SEIU, which just endorsed Arlen Specter, also gave their backing to Dem Doug Pike in his primary against Manan Trivedi.
  • Census: I received my 2010 Census form last night. Have you gotten yours yet?
  • Congress: Congress.org takes a look at former staffers who now occupy seats of their own on the Hill and notes that their ranks have been increasing since World War II. At least six staffers are running for office this year.
  • Lulz: Hard to believe, but disgraced and discredited "pollster" Strategic Vision claims to have undertaken a survey of the Georgia governor's race. Even sadder, a flack for outgoing Gov. Sonny Perdue actually emailed around the "results" to reporters. Still waiting for that lawsuit against Nate Silver.
  • Teabagging: Virginia Thomas, the wife of none other than Sup. Ct. Justice Clarence Thomas, has formed a new lobbying company to exploit capitalize on teabagger sentiment. The LAT notes:
  • As a 501(c)(4) nonprofit, Liberty Central can raise unlimited amounts of corporate money and largely avoid disclosing its donors.

    Because of a recent Supreme Court decision, Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission, the group may also spend corporate money freely to advocate for or against candidates for office.

    Justice Thomas was part of the 5-4 majority in that case.

  • SSP: We have 287 fans on le Facebook so far. Pretty please take us to 300? I ain't too proud to beg.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/16 (Morning Edition)
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    NY-13
    Because of the weird way politics works on Staten Island, McMahon is in no danger of losing anytime soon, regardless of the WFP endorsement/lack of same/challenger from the left. His moderate voting record has earned him the support of local Conservative Party kingpin/Borough President James Molinari.

    Depends...
    Grimm has raised a lot of money. A liberal challenge from someone like newly elected Councilwoman Debi Rose could be a real problem for McMahon. Especially if they make a lot of noise in the Democratic Primary and carry that support with them into the genral.


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    [ Parent ]
    Laptop acted up so guess I'll retype this
    Michael McMahon has pretty poor relations with the Democratic Party not only because of his vote on health care but because of his endorsement of non-Democrats James Molinaro (not Guy Molinari.. easy top get confused... easy enough that it has allowed Molinaro to serve three terms as Borough President) and Michael Bloomberg in the last round of elections.  This is not only among progressives but people of all ideological stripes who are active.  While not seen as a team player he is respected for taking the seat which is why there is little to no talk of anyone challenging him.

    However this means that unions including folks such as the WFP are that much more important in providing the necessary manpower to get the vote out.  I'm assuming most unions will back McMahon.  But he may need to pay a little more for it.  And organization will be key.  Without Obama at the top of the ticket he'll need all the help he can get in turning out out North Shore and in particular minority voters.

    James Molinaro will back McMahon just as McMahon backed him.  McMahon would've given him the Democratic nomination if he could.  But he couldn't.  Just as James Molinaro would give McMahon the Conservative Party nomination if he could.  But Mike Long in Brooklyn controls the state party and the party in theory was formed to help purge the Republican Party of "liberals" even if in practice they enjoy patronage almost as much as the old Liberal Party.  Both Molinaro and McMahon would be quite pleased if the Conservatives simply nominated a straw man rather than a Republican like they did last time.

    Guy Molinari is both the best and worst thing to happen to the Republican Party.  Molinari on the one hand built the machine which kept useless tools like Vito Fossella in office.  On the other hand he is petty and vindictive and more than happy to undermine his own party if he doesn't get his way.  Like he did in 2008.  Which is why hopefully Michael Allegretti will beat Molinari's hand picked lieutenant Michael Grimm to face off against Michael McMahon.

    NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


    [ Parent ]
    My census form was in and out yesterday
    It's pretty easy to complete, but a little quirky. It seems like they intentionally introduce confusion by using "stay" and "live" interchangeably.  

    ME--Gov: no Green candidate on the ballot
    Lynne Williams failed to get enough signatures and dropped out of the race.

    This is a huge boost for whoever ends up being the Dem candidate.  In 2006, the Green candidate got nearly 10% of the vote in Maine.  Baldacci survived only because another center-right Independent took 22% from the Republican candidate.  Having no Green candidate on the ballot this year should help the Dems hold this seat.

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...


    Merrill wasn't center right
    she was elected as a democrat before becoming an independent, and her ideas were an ecletic mishmash of right, left and center.  Baldacci won despite being unpopular b/c the maine repubs nominated a poor candidate who was too conservative for the state.  like the 2006 texas gubernatorial election, but for the opposite party (perry winning despite 1 center right independent and one crank).

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    This is odd
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Not much different from Reseach 2000 but what kind of Republican turnout is he looking at when "Voters not affiliated with either major party give a slight edge to Boxer in two of the contests but break even when Fiorina is the GOP candidate in the race."? Boxer leads Campbell with indies yet leads Campbell by just two points in total? Impossible.


    Unless of course.....
    The only way Campbell would have that kind of showing while breaking even with DTS (Decline to State) voters is if he was winning over far more Democrats than Boxer was winning over Republicans.  In the end, Boxer won't win more than 5-10% of Republican voters.
    That being said, all Boxer would have to do is win 80-85% of Democrats (most of whom in my home state of Cali are progressive).  In the end, Boxer has a virtual lock on this.  Far-out polls always show her under-performing, but Dems will definitely come home for her.  

    26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

    [ Parent ]
    What of Silicon Valley Ds?
    If I remember right, Campbell was popular in the South (SF) Bay area when he was in Congress.

    [ Parent ]
    Campbell was never popular among Santa Clara Co Dems
    Santa Clara was A LOT more republican when he was a congressman.  A lot of people have moved into and left the area since then and it has become quite a bit more hispanic and asian.  In addition, hispanics and asians have been voting much more dem in the bay area than they were in the 80s and 90s.

    26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

    [ Parent ]
    It would need a hell of a split
    Anyway, I'll wait for the next Field poll.

    [ Parent ]
    Boxer a "lock"? Doubtful.
    Let's give Boxer that 83% of Dems, 7% of Republicans, and I'll be nice and give her 50% of Independents. And, we'll give her an optimistic voter model of 40/30/30 Democrat/Republican/Independent (I happen to think it'll be more like 38/35/27). That brings her to EXACTLY 50% of the overall vote. Hardly a shoo-in.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    38-35-27 seems too pessimistic
    What are you basing that on?

    [ Parent ]
    The California electorate over the past three cycles...
    '08 - 42-30-28
    '06 - 41-35-25
    '04 - 39-33-27

    I don't think my projection, especially in a GOP-leaning cycle, is all that far-fetched.  

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    I don't think third parties will be that high
    And I think Democrats will GOTV because of the gubernatorial race.

    [ Parent ]
    Interesting you say high Dem GOTV will stem from the Gov race
    I suspect a lot of Dems won't head to the polls all that enthused to vote, for the umpteenth time, for Jerry Brown. Especially if the GOP nominee is a moderate like Meg Whitman. On the flip-side, I suspect progressives will be pumped as can be should Barbara Boxer wind up competing toe-to-toe with Carly Fiorina.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Jerry Brown
    Moonbeam definitely does not have a base problem.  Boxer doesn't either, but the governors race will coordinate their GOTV with Boxer.  The base definitely isn't going to be dispirited about Whitman's supposed moderation (or Campbell's).  Turnout won't be a problem.
    You have to trust my homestate Dems (maybe the most liberal Dems in the country).  If we lose Boxer we'll have lost them all.  

    26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

    [ Parent ]
    Don't forget third parties
    Boxer will pull more than 83% of Dems, but even if she doesn't third parties can easily get 3-5% in Cali elections.

    http://vote2004.sos.ca.gov/Ret...
    http://www.sos.ca.gov/election...

    26, D, MO-05, Hispanic


    [ Parent ]
    menendez recall allowed in NJ
    a rather ominous precedent

    http://www.politico.com/news/s...  

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.


    although maybe we could do the same with lieberman
    n/t

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    To be fair, apparently they held off on the
    constitutional issues, waiting to see if the ballots would be collected.  There's still a strong chance this won't go anywhere - and if that changes, we're in a lot of trouble.

    [ Parent ]
    Yet it is the Dems that are to blame
    For hyper-partisanship. Hadn't you heard?

    [ Parent ]

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