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SSP Daily Digest: 3/15 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Mon Mar 15, 2010 at 2:47 PM EDT


CA-Sen: Wow, it actually looks like conservadem blogger Mickey Kaus is forging ahead with his planned challenge to Barbara Boxer; he submitted papers to run in the Democratic primary. It sounds like he's approaching the race with rather limited expectations, though; in an interview with the New York Times, Kaus said that, in comparison to Al Franken: "I do not expect to win, and that is the difference between Franken and me. This is an issue-raising candidacy."

LA-Sen: The Charlie Melancon camp is offering up another Anzalone-Liszt internal, this one taken in mid-February, to show that things aren't quite as bad off as Rasmussen would have you believe. Melancon's poll shows David Vitter leading him, 48-38.

NV-Sen: Ex-Assemblywoman Sharron Angle is on the air with a 60-second radio spot, her first of the campaign. It's really more of an ad for the teabaggers than for herself, though, as it focuses on critiquing the TARP program and promoting the Tea Party rally planned for Harry Reid's tiny town of Searchlight.

NY-Sen-B: There's been a remarkable churn-and-burn of celebrities showing up, saying they're interested in challenging Kirsten Gillibrand, and then backing away after doing the math. This time, it was former state banking official and Michael Bloomberg girlfriend Diana Taylor. Politico is also abuzz about George Pataki's dodging of questions of running for Senate when at a Rick Lazio rally, since of course his basic polite desire not to step on Lazio's message means that Pataki is secretly planning to run for Senate.

OH-Sen: This guy looks like he's destined to end up with about one or two percent of the vote, but in what could be a super-close race between Lee Fisher and Rob Portman (if recent polling is any indication), that fraction could make all the difference. Surgeon Michael Pryce announced his independent candidacy for the Senate at a Tea Party gathering last week. (Of course, there's still the little matter of his gathering those signatures.)

PA-Sen: Arlen Specter pulled in another union endorsement over the weekend, and it's one with a lot of boots on the ground: the state chapter of the SEIU, with nearly 100,000 members.

MN-Gov: Howard Dean is weighing in with a pay-back endorsement in another Democratic gubernatorial primary. This time, it's in Minnesota, and he's backing Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak. Rybak was chair for Dean's 2004 primary campaign in Minnesota.

OR-Gov: This isn't the kind of news that helps your gubernatorial campaign gain traction. Bill Sizemore, at one point one of the most dominant forces in Oregon's GOP (and still persisting in running for Governor in spite of the odds), is facing three counts of tax evasion. He finally relented and accepted the help of a public defender despite previous plans to go it alone. He hasn't been getting any private donations for his legal defense fund and is working as a landscaper to make ends meet, so he qualifies.

SC-Gov: Rep. Gresham Barrett's having a hard time washing the stench of Washington off his hands while running for the GOP gubernatorial nod in South Carolina. Under attack over his inside-the-Beltway vote in favor of TARP from inside-the-Beltway group Americans for Job Security, Barrett has decided to use his inside-the-Beltway federal campaign funds to run ads in South Carolina to defend himself, which is permissible because he's defending his voting record rather than touting his gubernatorial campaign.

UT-02: Despite the entry several months ago of former state Rep. and state party co-chair Morgan Philpot, the GOP is looking for a better option to go against Rep. Jim Matheson. GOP recruiters have been trying to get four-term state Rep. Greg Hughes to get in the race, who apparently offers more gravitas than the young Philpot.

WA-03: Retiring Rep. Brian Baird took a while to settle on an endorsement for a replacement, but he's going with ex-state Rep. and TVW founder Denny Heck. The Dem establishment (starting with Gov. Chris Gregoire) seems to be coalescing behind Heck, who faces off against liberal state Sen. Craig Pridemore in the primary.

New York: New York's Working Families Party is laying it all on the line: the party's central committee voted to prohibit the endorsement of any member of Congress who votes against the pending healthcare bill. The WFP's line provided the margin of victory for both Scott Murphy and Bill Owens in their special elections last year. It also (sigh) provided Eric Massa's margin in 2008. (D)

Demographics: An interesting University of Southern California study points to an trend that got underway in the 1990s that's really started to show up lately in Census estimates: that immigrants to the U.S. are increasingly skipping the traditional ports of entry (New York, Los Angeles) and instead heading directly for the nation's midsize metropolitan areas. The numbers of recent immigrants had the steepest gain, percentage-wise, in places like Nashville, El Paso, Bakersfield, and Stockton.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/15 (Afternoon Edition)
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I'm one of those WFP votes for Scott Murphy.
Can't say I blame them, though I'll vote for him in November regardless. Hopefully he's smart enough to see that teabaggers are going to be pissed off whether he votes for HCR or not and so he might as well not piss off the base and lose the WFP line.

Are there any moderates left in upstate NY?
I suggest that not everyone in upstate NY is a teabagger or a liberal activist.

The unknown is whether a nuanced position on HCR might win or retain some moderate voters.

And if HCR passes, will liberal voters actually turn out in any greater numbers? If so, will those numbers be greater than the number of moderates who might be attracted by a nuanced position on HCR?


[ Parent ]
People against
Are voting whether is passes or not. The difference can be made by boosting base turnout.

[ Parent ]
By base
I mean Democrats not just liberals.

[ Parent ]
Still doesn't answer my question
What is the political calculus w/r/t moderates?

[ Parent ]
Moderates
Are mostly Democrats.

[ Parent ]
While I concur with that nationally
I'm not sure that's true in upstate NY, the home of the Rockefeller Republican.

[ Parent ]
Which suggests to me
Archetypal moderate voters. I'd hazard a guess that upstate New York is a pretty decent barometer for moderate opinion nationwide.  

[ Parent ]
RE: liberal voters
As someone who spent the special election mostly doing GOTV on liberal voters, my job will be much easier if I can point to his vote in favor of HCR. That is, if I volunteer for him at all this cycle, which I may not if he votes against HCR as there are some very good candidates on the state level that may be more deserving of my time. And then there's the WFP line, which could very well win or cost him the election like last time.

Given that self-described moderates are actually in favor of HCR 48-38, I find it unlikely that voting against HCR would be a net gain for him among that group. Even if it was, it would have to be very substantial to outweigh the lack of enthusiasm among the base and the loss of the WFP line.


[ Parent ]
What you cite is a national poll
not a poll of upstate NY.

[ Parent ]
There will be more liberal moderates
And more conservative moderates in other states that balance it out which would support the national figure.

[ Parent ]
Really?
I wish we had polling on every issue for every region too, but c'mon, extrapolate.  

[ Parent ]
I'm suggesting that congressmen do internal polls on issues too
I hope you're right. I hope the support of moderate voters pulls HCR through.

But the waffling among these upstate NY congressmen suggest otherwise to me.  


[ Parent ]
Murphy certainly has more leeway
To vote no than yes than Arcuri has in voting yes then no.  

[ Parent ]
Murphy no THEN less
Meaning I don't know how Arcuri sells the obviously spineless move of voting no for a less liberal bill for "conservative" reasons. Murphy however can say the changes made it more palatable for him to support it. Like Altmire appears to be doing.

[ Parent ]
LOL
Third time lucky - no then yes.

[ Parent ]
You are assuming that their waffling is rational.
At any rate, I agree with conspiracy that Rockefeller Republicans are very typical moderates. I would be shocked if they opposed HCR, especially by a large margin.

[ Parent ]
PPP also had numbers
Indicating a better performance on the generic ballot if it passes than if it doesn't.

[ Parent ]
Only by 1%.
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

43-40 Republican baseline.
45-41 if Democrats pass HCR.
43-38 if they don't.

I remember seeing that and thinking it's the classic, "Damned if you do, damned if you don't."

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
I'll go with right thing to do then


[ Parent ]
Damn skippy.


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Internals are interesting
4% drop in party unity without passage. Wasn't there another poll from somebody else showin similar numbers?

[ Parent ]
I would have sworn
there was a previous ppp poll, which showed Dems in demonstrably better shape if they passed HCR.  Damn if I can find it, though.

I suspect that is what you were originally thinking of.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Another PPP yes
Also somebody else. Kaiser maybe? Not sure.

[ Parent ]
Good data, thank you, n/t


[ Parent ]
Nate here
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

"The near-term political case for passing health care, again, is not that the bill is magically going to become popular over the next eight months. Rather, it's that the Democrats are already in such bad shape among independents -- partly, no doubt, because of their bungled handling of what has become an unpopular health care bill -- that they may as well go ahead and give their base something to get excited about. Seriously, the Democrats' approval rating among independents in 19 percent. What more do they have to lose?"


[ Parent ]
Non-political prediction
I know we usually do predictions on the outcomes of political races, just wondering if there will be a SSP March Madness prediction/contest.  

Not that I expect to do any better at picking basketball teams than I do at picking winning candidates; just wondering.


I'm on the record
My Richmond Spiders will win the National Championship.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
KY-SEN - Tying politics to March Madness.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...

Really stupid politics from Conway here.  All he had to say was, "I pick Kentucky to go all the way."  If this is any indication of his political savvy, it is no wonder he is down big to Dr. Dan.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
He did
"Conway's campaign declined and said he actually picked Kentucky to win the national championship."

The link reflects badly on Mongiardo IMO.


[ Parent ]
This from Conway rankled me.
"As a long time college basketball fan, it's unfortunate that Daniel Mongiardo's campaign has decided to cheapen America's greatest sporting event by injecting lowbrow political attacks into the NCAA tournament."

Seems like crybaby shit to me.  He just went too far with it.  The right move was to take it in good fun and affirm that he's rooting for the Wildcats.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
As opposed to Mongiardo's "elitist" BS?
Will have to agree to disagree on this one.

[ Parent ]
No we'll agree to agree
I hadn't read Mongiardo's response closely.  A pox on both their houses, upon further review.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
I
think they both sound rather stupid if you ask me.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Still
I think Conway's insticts were correct - it was a trap to paint him as an out of touch liberal elitist and the response to his decline confirms it.

[ Parent ]
Really stupid politics from Conway here??????
Talk about reverse spin.  Conway looks good in the story.

It makes Dr. Dan look like a fool.


[ Parent ]
As I said earlier, I didn't really read Dr. Dan's
response when I said that.  I stopped with Conway's response, which I thought was over the top.  Mongiardo's response to that was totally dickish.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
New Pa Senate poll
Toomey-42
Spector-36

http://www.pa2010.com/2010/03/...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


Mmmm
"Democrat favor Specter 59 percent to 14 percent, with 20 percent still undecided."

"...voters who remain undecided are "historically most favorable" to the Democrats, including voters in Philadelphia, females, younger voters and moderates."

In other words Q and R2K are closer to the truth.


[ Parent ]
I
think it may be a republican pollster, not for sure though. If it is then I find it funny that a republican pollster shows a closer race for the dem then Scotty does.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Susquehanna
is an openly partisan Republican outfit, as opposed to Rasmussen, which is a partisan Republian outfit that tries to act like it is independent.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
PA
So the democratic pollsters have Specter ahead and the Republican ones have Toomey ahead, and both sides are pretty sure of it as they have them ahead outside the MOE.  

Crazy.  

I'm still sticking with the principle that if Toomey couldn't win among republican primary voters six years ago, he ain't winning among all voters this year.  Nope.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
To
be fair he only lost the primary because the Bush administration weighed heavily behind Specter. They knew the race would be much harder with Toomey. I think we will win it because people will get to know Toomey better, and they will turn to Specter.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
LA-Sen -- Looks good, if true
If this poll is an accurate reflection, then it is a hopeful sign.  To be down only 10 points in this environment in LA, shows there is still a reasonable chance for a close race.    

Too many people swallow Scotty Outlier like lemmings
Melancon is essentially right where he should be in a red state against a flawed incumbent.  He just needs to make his case between now and election day, and Vitter becomes the Elizabeth Dole of this cycle.

[ Parent ]
I think Melancon is in a good spot
Wouldn't want him to peak too early.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
LOL
Linda McMahon owns a 47 foot long yacht named sexy bitch. I suppose Joe Lieberman's just says Health care lobbies bitch.  
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Sad News
Keith Olbermann's father passed away. Viewers of Olbermann's show know that he has been ill for a while now (Keith has been missing a lot of shows lately) and I would like to wish him well.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  



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