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Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 10

by: James L.

Sun Mar 14, 2010 at 7:14 PM EDT


More fresh meat from Scott Rasmussen's sausage factory.

LA-Sen (3/10, likely voters, 2/10 in parens):

Charlie Melançon (D): 34 (33)
David Vitter (R-inc): 57 (57)
Undecided: 6 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

MN-Gov (3/10, likely voters):

Mark Dayton (D): 38
Tom Emmer (R): 35
Tom Horner (I): 7
Undecided: 20

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D): 34
Tom Emmer (R): 37
Tom Horner (I): 10
Undecided: 18

R.T. Rybak (D): 38
Tom Emmer (R): 35
Tom Horner (I): 9
Undecided: 18

Tom Bakk (D): 29
Tom Emmer (R): 36
Tom Horner (I): 8
Undecided: 27

Tom Rukavina (D): 29
Tom Emmer (R): 38
Tom Horner (I): 7
Undecided: 25

Matt Entenza (D): 28
Tom Emmer (R): 37
Tom Horner (I): 8
Undecided: 26

Mark Dayton (D): 38
Marty Seifert (R): 39
Tom Horner (I): 7
Undecided: 16

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D): 35
Marty Seifert (R): 39
Tom Horner (I): 8
Undecided: 19

R.T. Rybak (D): 38
Marty Seifert (R): 38
Tom Horner (I): 8
Undecided: 16

Tom Bakk (D): 30
Marty Seifert (R): 37
Tom Horner (I): 9
Undecided: 24

Tom Rukavina (D): 30
Marty Seifert (R): 39
Tom Horner (I): 9
Undecided: 22

Matt Entenza (D): 30
Marty Seifert (R): 38
Tom Horner (I): 9
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±3%)

MO-Sen (3/9, likely voters, 2/10 in parens):

Robin Carnahan (D): 41 (42)
Roy Blunt (R): 47 (49)
Not sure: 8 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

NH-Gov (3/8, likely voters, 1/12 in parens):

John Lynch (D-inc): 51 (51)
Jack Kimball (R): 32 (32)
Undecided: 13 (12)

John Lynch (D-inc): 54 (53)
Karen Testerman (R): 28 (30)
Undecided: 14 (12)

John Lynch (D-inc): 50
John Stephen (R): 35
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±4.5%)

James L. :: Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 10
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In retrospect
Melançon running for Senate was a terrible idea in a lot of ways.

I thought his district was a likely candidate for elimination in 2012
and therefore he had little to lose.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Well
Melancon's district is going to be drawn out into oblivion because his district lost a lot of population since 2000. I think he felt as though it was worth it to take the plunge--I don't necessarily disagree.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

[ Parent ]
Redistricting
Dems control both houses of the state legislature at the moment, so there's a chance they could have protected his seat. Granted, it would have been redrawn due to population shifts, but it's also currently the only Dem-held House seat (although that will change after November).

[ Parent ]
LA Redistricting Question
Because Dems DO control both chambers, what are the odds that they give up on a Cajun district (or give it the best they can, at least) while instead move to create a safely democratic seat out of Baton Rouge? What are the odds of moving to a 2-4 map, likely with the two both being AA, or 1 AA and 1 that could be either AA or elect a Cazayoux type pol?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Baton Rouge will probably have to be partially put into LA-02
With the population loss in New Orleans, the district is going to have to snake up to Baton Rouge in order to remain majority-black.

[ Parent ]
You have
Bobby Jindal who can veto any redistricting plan the legislature comes with. Jindal was also a congressman before he became governor, so he knows the consequences of redistricting personally.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Late
last year it seemed like a good idea when Vitter was hit by scandals but now he seems to be in a lose lose lose situation.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
Well, melancon did increase from 33 to 34
Progress?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Why?
We risk nothing and get a strong candiate for the Senate.

One of the best gets of the cycle.  This negativity is bizarre eight months from the election.

LA is a tough state, but we have a good candidate, and that is a great thing.


[ Parent ]
Robin
Carnahan is taking a hit by the national environment which might explain why she's trailing now as opposed to leading within the margin of error from late last year and early this year. Once she starts running ads and campaigning like crazy she'll close the gap and win in the end IMO.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

Races in Missouri
are always nail biters. Even in an unfavorable environments, races are still nail biters. For example, Claire McCaskill only lost the governor's race in 2004 to Matt Blunt by two points even though Bush won the state by 7 points, Bond by double digits, and Kerry completely pulling out of the state weeks before to mount a last ditch stand in Ohio. Unfortunately, Missouri is definitely trending away from us at the presidential level. Even though Obama only lost the state to McCain by 0.14 percent, McCain was leading by 5-10 points in the polls until the financial crisis hit even though Obama was leaving no stone unturned in Kansas City and St. Louis looking for voters, and outspending McCain there.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Yeah, Missouri is becoming more like the South
Democrats pretty much are confined to the St. Louis, Kansas City, and Columbia areas. There are a few Dem state legislators in the rural areas, but by and large, the state is moving to the right.

[ Parent ]
The only pollster polling MO-Sen
is Rasmussen.  She's probably ahead by 2.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
I think Carnahan is going to beat Blunt by a mid single digit total in the end.  He's a terrible candidate in a cycle like this, and Carnahan has always been very popular as Missouri's SOS.  Really the only people that don't like her are people that won't vote for her anyway, it's always the same with SOS's really.  Jennifer Brunner is kind of in the same situation in Ohio, where the vast majority of her unfavorables are from voters with a R next to their name.  

I'd go so far to say that Missouri is the 4th most likely seat to flip this year, once you get past North Dakota, Delaware, and Arkansas.  I have Nevada and Colorado as the next two most likely flips (to R) before Ohio comes in seventh.  Rob Portman is pretty similar to Blunt, very insider-ish, and that's not good going into 2010.

I'm not sure where to slot New Hampshire, right now I have it ninth, behind Indiana.  Illinois and Pennsylvania bring up the rear in 10th and 11th, with not much else really on the radar screen although Florida is starting to get interesting with that Rass poll showing Meek close against Rubio.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
I agree.
If you remove a few points for this poll being Ras, the race is a lot closer, with maybe a slight edge to Blunt, but like you said, once she gets on the air and really ramps up the campaign, she'll close the gap. It will be close, but I think she'll pull it off. It's hard to imagine a Blunt defeating a Carnahan, even in this environment.

[ Parent ]
I find it hard to believe
that 74% of the Louisiana electorate has a favorable view of or a "no opinion" view of the tea party movement. Then again, according to Scott's likely voter model, only angry tea baggers are going to vote this year. So, like, whatever.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

Minnesota Non Gov numbers
I found the approval/disapproval  numbers for Kloubachar and Franken in the same poll interesting.

Kloubachar 67/30
Franken 50/46

Kloubachar remains the most popular politicion in the state and Franken is up to 50% approval.

As for Pawlenty half those polled said they would not vote for him if he ran for president while 38% said they would. Hardly a home state vote of confidence.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


Are there any more combinations out there?
That's a lot they already have.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
One encouraging thing from our side are the regional advantages of the candidates
The main problem with Emmer and Seifert is that neither is a moderate seeming Republican from the metro area.  That is really the only way to win statewide now in MN as if you come off as a right winger from Greater MN, getting the suburban vote is going to be a lot harder, especially when up against a metro DFLer people can identify with.

Emmer was my hometown state rep not too long ago and the area is tea-bag Republican and no way will his posturing for these constituents over the years play well in the must-win suburbs.  One example is him personally attending, as GOP House leadership, to urge the delegates of a senate district convention to not endorse a GOP house incumbent for voting to override Pawlenty's veto of a giant transportation investment bill.  It was a GIANT deal, and suburbanites would probably rate transportation as a top issue affecting their every day lives, and I totally forgot about the 35W bridge collapse til just now.  Perfect attack ad, just gotta do it classy.

Marty Seifert is a staunch conservative who represents the base of conservative Greater Minnesota, which is not much of a base.

Rybak will do well in the suburbs, MAK very well could do well (kill it with suburban women), Dayton I think would be meh but he can still win overall, obviously the Iron Rangers would be terrible in the suburbs, Paul Thissen could do well and I dunno about Entenza.

This is why I'm not worried about Emmer or Seifert.


Could
some SSP users from Minnesota tell me who they are supporting for Governor? Thanks in advance!    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Ditto
I live in MAK's house distract, but Rybak 100%. I know some people that like MAK, but she comes off as too partisan and angry (ala Hillary Clinton). Rybak has more of an Obama veneer to him, which stylistically I like.


[ Parent ]
Chalk me up as another Minnesotan for Rybak
Mostly because I think he's the most electable, as well as being satisfactorily progressive.

[ Parent ]
For
about a dozen family members who live around Waseca,

Rybak 100%.



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