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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 4:41 PM EST


James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 127 comments
Downing Street
British General Election is likely May 6th. I see 538.com has begun a regular series to cover proceedings. Hope mods don't mind me mentioning it.
Likewise
I've been obsessively refreshing UK Polling Report for the last few weeks to monitor the Incredible Shrinking Tory Lead (as the Financial Times called it).

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
absolutely
you really think that Brown can pull it out? i tend to think with the economy in the tank, cameron will still pull it out, he needs to squeeze the libdem vote big time in south londoon
[ Parent ]
Reasoning behind it
I've seen lots of explanations but it is interesting that it really began tightening after he cried in an interview when he was talking about the death of his baby daughter. Eerily Hillary-NH like. It humanized him. All of a sudden he seems almost teflon. Which is an astounding reversal in fortunes. I have no idea what will happen but it is fascinating. I'm hopefull the Liberal Democrats will at the very least be able to hold their numbers in the next Parliament.
[ Parent ]
GAWD
Looking at the Wikipedia page for the 2010 UK General Election has me baffled with conservatives being blue and such.

Then again, I never really did take notice of elections outside US elections and know that us Americans are backwards in many ways.  Why is it that the Liberal party in the US is blue, while its usually red everywhere else?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
By chance
The networks used to alternate but because 2000 was so close the colors hit the common vernacular and stuck.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but I like blue better for us.
Blue is the color of clean oceans and clear skies.  Red is the color of blood and rage.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
And
Communism!

:)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
And the Sith!



Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
You just got 5 points in my book
Man I've become a giant Star Wars nerd lately.
[ Parent ]
That's fine
We've occasionally touched on foreign elections here. Just as long as you don't get into, I dunno, flamewars about the merits of the fox-hunting ban. :)
[ Parent ]
Party pooper.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Really?
The foxing hunting ban is a fascist assualt on civil liberties and the rights of the people to hunt down the dangerous verimin. This is why I could never support the British Labor Party and I thank God that in America we have the 2nd Amendemnet right to protect ourselves from attacks from ravenous foxes!

(And in case anyone didnt get it I am being sarcastic and just joking around. I could careless about foxing hunting or the electoral merits of banning it)

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[ Parent ]
Scotty
has some sucky MN numbers. Too many candidates for me to list all results, but every dem is within the margin of error or leading slightly. I was hoping for higher than that. Now that we are on the subject can some MN natives  tell me who they like in the primary. I've not made my mind up yet.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

pretty interesting numbers
I find these numbers to be somewhat remarkable considering the candidates, and I think that they must be seen as very favorable for the Repubs. On the DFL side I'd say Rybak or Dayton simply because of the name id, but MAK could win the convention nomination. If they pick Dayton, I think that hands the race to the GOP. He will hemorrage votes to the independence party. I think Seifert is stronger for the GOP, better regional matchup, Emmer is portraying himself as pretty rightwing, he'll need to pivot back to the middle to have a chance.
[ Parent ]
I know this doesn't have much to do with elections per say
But I found this Gallup Poll Widget very interesting, the compare presidents tab amused me for quite a while.

I found it interesting Obama is having similar approvals as Clinton had at this point in his presidency, but has had better approvals than Clinton in general up to this point.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

I've been playing with that
Though I think so far there is a pretty close Reagan correlation too.
[ Parent ]
I
believe that Obama will be regarded in history as liberal's Reagan. Conservatives will continue to hate the President no matter how successful he may or may not be and liberals will approve of his administration no matter what. Unfortunately I believe that our nation has become too partisan for great Presidents to become universally popular such as Lincoln, FDR, and Washington. No matter how successful a President may be I think that that person will be adored by his/her base and hated by the opposing. This is disturbing but unfortunately I believe it's the truth.        

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
To be fair
Lincoln wasn't universally popular in his day, hell the entire south seceded over Lincoln's elections (now that was polarization).

Not to say that Lincoln wasn't a great president (he was among the greatest, if not the greatest) I'm just saying he was pretty damn polarizing himself.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Yes
Lincoln was immensely polarizing among North and South but this was more of a regional and slavery driven divide and less than personal policy one. The South would have hated any Northern Republican and even Northern Democrat who would be President and the North would have done the same for any Southern Democrat.

In today's world the last President liked by both political parties is generally considered to be Truman and that's only because he was an adamant anti-communist and a domestic liberal with his Fair Deal. I have trouble seeing how current Presidents and future ones will be approved of by both parties.        

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
Truman left office with approval ratings in the 20s
And the entire basis of the Civil War (outside of slavery) was also a fundamental question of the relationship between states and the national government (think about this, prior to the passage of the 14th Amendment, the states were not actually bound by the Bill of Rights).

How you answered the question of whether or not we were simply a bunch of states or an actual country that the states were bound by would be a pretty good indicator of how one felt about slavery, about the role of the federal government, and about plenty of economic and social issues (believe me, political divides have always been with us).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
The
whole political argument for "states rights" was and has always been bulls^it. State's Rights in US history has almost always been code name for either slavery or racial segregation. The real issue was slavery and it not only affected politicians of the opposing party but everyone, which was why both parties had to keep nominating idiots not even capable of serving as Mayor to run for President because they had no record on slavery. And during the pri-Civil War era the federal governments biggest job would have to have been the post office. It was a joke back then.      

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Well, yeah
Most government action was at the state and local levels back in the day, which basically meant that partisanship and ideology at the federal level was pretty much limited to slavery and whether states could leave the union if they wanted to.

And yes, I agree, "states rights" is basically code for racism, slavery, and segregation (and, more recently, gay-bashing).

Anyways, I don't want to go off on a tangent here, so I'll just leave it at that.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
haha
I guess I'll leave it here too  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Not true!
The debate of "states rights" goes back to the founding of the US. Its a lot more important than code words for slavery or racial segregation. It's really a debate about the role of the Federal Government in our system.

The rise of political parties and the divide between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson was all based on what should be the role of the Federal Government vs the role of the states. That debate between those that wanted a strong interventionist Federal Government vs a weak non interventionist Federal Government is still going on today.
(Just look at the health care debate).

To say those people that advocate for a weaker federal government and devolution of power to the states are really racist is completely unfair and really a complete misunderstanding of a central theme in US history.

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[ Parent ]
Note:
I won't respond in substance because we're off SSP's topic, but there's a lot to object to in this comment.  
[ Parent ]
eh
you are putting too much of a disconnect between people's personal policy preferences (racism)  and how that affects their desired way off governance (state's rights).  One can be motivated for another.
[ Parent ]
First of all
Many liberals are upset at Obama for not fighting more stridently or pushing more strongly liberal/leftist programs more strongly.

But secondly, if you really think FDR has ever been universally popular, I think it's because you haven't learned enough of the really important American history. FDR was anathema to the conservative elite and still is. Reagan attempted to co-opt the legacy of FDR to some degree, but if you scratch the surface, the hard right hates every program he instituted.

As a matter of fact, none of the three presidents you mentioned was universally popular in their lifetimes, and the only one who doesn't remain at least somewhat controversial - though, given his treatment of his slaves, maybe he should - is Washington.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
I've
noticed the left against Obama thing is kind of dying down a bit. I routinely frequent liberal blogs (Huff Po, daily kos, FDL, ect.) and watch MSNBC. I used to be called a troll for still sticking with Obama. However I have now noticed that many have begun to come back to Obama's side. I here much less bashing from him from on the left. I'm really not sure why, perhaps the tea party movement has actually united us a bit. Yeah there will always be the Jane Hamshers of the world who will never be happy, but I think most are satisfied enough.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Netroots are not the base
http://www.pollster.com/polls/...

At most he has lost five points since the inauguration.

[ Parent ]
Of
course the core right wing GOP still hates FDR, no one is disagreeing with, and the fact that Washington makes the top 10 best Presidents list still baffles me since the only major thing he was able to do was keep us from going into war again with Britain and being humble enough to step down after 2 terms and realizing he wasn't really a smart person, thus causing him to appoint both Jefferson and Hamilton to his cabinet.

And honestly a lot of progressives may be furious with the President but the one way you can see if the nation is progressing is to look at the reactionary movement occurring, and right now the tea bagger movement is reminding me of the rise of the KKK after the Civil War and the second rise during the 1920s.      

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
The Teabaggers are nuts.
However, to compare them to the KKK is a little extreme.
[ Parent ]
I'm
just comparing them both as reactionary movements due to major changes in governmental policies. It happens all the time in US politics and history. I'm by no means comparing their ideologies just that they both were reactionary to progress.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
They're more analogous to Father Coughlin, I think
He was an a pro-Nazi anti-Semite red-baiter before the U.S. entered WWII.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Really Pan?
Now that is really unfair! Father Coughlin was a fascist. If anything the Tea Party Movement is a Libertarian anti-government one. They want a roll back of taxes and government off their back. While it is easier for the Left to dismiss them as racist rednecks I think that totally inaccurate discription and completely miss the mark.

The Tea Partiers are anti-tax revolt. If anything they are more akind to the Prop 13 tax revolt in California in the late 1970s.

This is why I think their message is a dangerous one for the Dems. A lot of independent voters like parts of the GOPs economic agenda (less taxes, less spending) but abhor their social agenda (the anti gay rights, the pro-life stuff, Terri Scalvo fight, and all the Christian Nation Coalition religious agenda). I think the movement of Independents away from Dems to the GOP is a result of the Tea Party reducing the role of social conservatives in the GOP and replacing the focus on a low tax economic conservative agenda.

That's how a Scott Brown could win in a place like MA. They were not voting for a Father Coughlin (or Pat Buchanan) type. They were voting against higher taxes.

That's the lesson Dems need to take for the Tea Party and they need to present an effective response by addressing the issues they raise. If they ignore them and dismiss them as ignorant rascist we will see a lot more Scott Browns elected in 2010.

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[ Parent ]
I
would agree that the majority of tea party people are just anti government, however there are many out there that are not. My town had a tea party and about 1200 people went around the town square to listen to all of these conservative activists. I drove by and I saw signs saying were is the birth certificate and I kid you not another one saying send Osama back to the cotton field or finally my personal favorite one is this eighty year old woman holding a sign that said send him to a death panel (the sign had a gun and Obama's head with a Hitler mustache on it). To say that racism, fear and hatred don't make up some of the tea party crowd is simply not true.      

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
A clearer analogy is
Glenn Beck is like Father Coughlin and the Teabaggers are his followers.

Libertarian? Come on! These same people were fine with indiscriminate spying while a white Republican was President, and they're fine with torturing people. They also had no objection to grossly unbalanced budgets when GW was in office. It's just that they don't want Democrats - especially a Democrat of color with a Muslim name - spending money that will benefit those n-----s, they don't trust HIM to spy on them, and the people they want to torture look like or/and have names like Barack Hussein. Instead, they want to get all those "Socialists" out - by force, if necessary - so that they can put their guys back in and have them use their trusty hammers against everyone else.

I'll admit I've made a bunch of generalizations in the previous paragraph, but if you think about the absence of a strident or even evident movement against creeping big government by red-state white people under GW and note the contrast, it really speaks for itself.

Finally, Scott Brown is NOT, N-O-T a Teabagger! If anything, he's shown evidence of wanting to lessen partisan obstruction and automatic rejection of Democratic proposals for the sake of opposing.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
I loved
watching Teabagger heads explode when they heard Brown voted for the jobs bill.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
You're underrating Washington tremendously
He was offered the position of King of America. Think what might have happened if he had accepted. He also deserves some credit for keeping the revolting colonists united and, ultimately, victorious doesn't he?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Yes
Washington crushing the Whiskey rebellion was very important but as I understand it it was done under the strong advice of Hamilton and not Washington.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Damn you for giving me something else to distract myself with!
Compared to the three of the first four two-termers (meaning elected to a second term, not necessarily serving it), Obama ranks below all three.  He ranks below Eisenhower, Johnson, and Nixon but ahead of Truman.

Compared to the three most recent two-termers (Reagan, Clinton, and Dubya) Obama ranks ahead of Reagan, pretty much tied with Clinton, and below Bush (but Bush was still at his 9/11 approval peak).

Compared to the three one-termers (Ford, Carter, and HW Bush), Obama is above Ford, tied with Carter, and well below Bush.  I didn't use JFK due to the fact that he didn't get a chance to compete for a second term.

Of the six Democratic presidents, Obama's approvals among Democrats were below those of only Kennedy and Johnson at this stage.  Obama has higher numbers among members of his own party than Nixon (very slightly) and Ford (significantly) had with members of their party and is pretty much tied with Reagan.  Both Bushes beat him, though.  

Obama has the lowest opposite party approval of all of the presidents with available data (They evidentally didn't due partisan breakdowns for Truman until further into his Presidency.  However, judging from the starting points and slope, it would appear his opposite party approvals were higher than Obama's as well.)  This includes Kennedy.

Finally, his independent approvals are below every president available (Again, Truman's data isn't available for this point of his presidency, but in this case, the slope and starting point indicate a lower approval than Obama).  However, Obama is statistically tied with Reagan and Clinton.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
What I found really interesting
Was that 55%+ of Republicans still stuck with Bush even after the economy collapsed.  I cannot believe that at all. Wow, just wow.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
they probably blamed
Democrats in congress.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
My
business teacher from last year who happened to be a Glenn Beck Republican adamantly blamed the Dems for the collapse of the economy which makes no sense whatsoever. If the bills were so fiscally awful to cause the collapse of the economy then Bush should have vetoed them. The argument is insane and totally partisan based.      

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Remember the "It takes 8 years before changes are felt" argument?
They said that when the economy started to go to shit at the beginning of the Bush error so they could blame Clinton.  Now minus eight years puts us right around the Bush taxcuts.

That also means the recession of the early nineties was Reagan's fault, the recession of the early eighties was Nixon/Ford's fault, the Carter recession was likewise Nixon's fault, and the Great Depression would still be the Republicans' fault.

Conversely, the Roaring Twenties were due to Wilson.  The post-war boom would be due to FDR and Truman, and the 1980s boom would be due to Carter.

Suck on that, Republicans.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I
agree 100%. Republicans needed some liberal to blame for the economic mess so they decided "hey everyone hates Nancy Pelosi why not blame her". Now they're blaming Obama for the mess. Well that argument may work for not getting unemployment down but if they try to blame the start of it on Obama they may as well try to blame Pearl Harbor on him too while they're at it.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
American people
Still don't blame Obama. Even Rasmussen constantly shows Bush way ahead on that question. See also the recent DSCC Ohio internal.
[ Parent ]
Which
is why their argument of big government liberals ruining the economy didn't work. Now their attacking Obama for not fixing the economy fast enough and are hoping that no one remembers which political party caused the recession in the first place.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Much love for Neko Case
What a fantastic singer. (I saw her once at a club called "Iota" in Arlington, VA, which deserved the name, and it was one of the best shows I've seen.) Is there a new New Pornographers album coming out sometime soon?
I hope you will also appreciate
My tweet from the other day:

On FOX, Transgressor Slings the Mud http://ssp.bz/cz6GFB

[ Parent ]
Ouch
Magnificently terrible.
[ Parent ]
NY-Sen, Why is Bloomberg campaigning against Gillibrand?
Nice diary here: http://www.thealbanyproject.co... based on a NY Times story today: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03... .

He gripes about her in private conversations with his aides and her colleagues on Capitol Hill. He has yet to take up her invitation to sit down for dinner. And his political team is constantly shopping for potential candidates to oust her.
... Why does Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg so dislike Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand?

Seems to me Bloomberg is starting to border on nuts with his apparent irrational hatred of her. He won't even have a dinner with her.
He's up to his umpteen anti-Gillibrand surrogate candidate.
If he hadn't just put in a great deal of effort to get himself re-elected mayor, I'd bet he'd jump into this race race and spend his millions to crush her.
There's no definitive answer here, except maybe this:
there is nothing she can do or say to change Bloomberg's conceit that that Senate seat should be held by someone who is personally beholden to him.

He was one of the prime movers behind the Caroline Kennedy appointment campaign
He's probably still bitter that it got torpedoed.
[ Parent ]
Wow
I think the takeaway on this one is that Bloomberg is an irrational, egomaniacal, hypocritical jerk.

So STFU and focus on running the city, Bloomie.

I will say this: Kirsten Gillibrand really knows how to pick her enemies. Every single person who's opposed her (even if unofficially) has made her look good.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
That's what he was elected to do:
STFU and focus on running the city, Bloomie.

God knows, the city needs a lot of help!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
new Wisconsin poll
WisPolitics.com is reporting a new poll commissioned by the Wisconsin Policy Research Institute (a conservative-leaning organization) of likely voters (March 7-9, 600 voters surveyed).  Here are some of the points:

http://wispolitics.com/index.i...

Senate race:

-- Former Gov. Tommy Thompson leads Sen. Russ Feingold 51-39%, with 9% undecided
-- Independent likely voters support Thompson over Feingold 53-35%
-- Feingold leads Terrence Wall (the current lead GOP candidate) 47-32%

Governor's race:

-- Milwaukee County Exec. Scott Walker (R) leads Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) 36-32%
-- Barrett is tied with former GOP U.S. Rep. Mark Neumann at 34%

Other data:

-- Pres. Obama's job approval/disapproval is 49-49%
-- 37% support Obama's health care plan, 55% do not
-- Gov. Doyle's job approval is 48%
-- 34% believe Wisconsin is on the right track, 57% believe the state is on the wrong track
-- 62% believe the U.S. is on the wrong track
-- 4 in 10 believe Wisconsin's economy will improve in the next year, and 14% believe it will worsen

Doyle's approval is surpisingly high
SurveyUSA has put it consistently in the 30s.
[ Parent ]
I'd throw the poll out right there
Doyle at 48%... but only 34% think the state is on the right track???

No way.

[ Parent ]
Feingold
Skeptical. Even Rasmussen has more favorable numbers. But don't get me wrong, if Thompson runs it'll be a real race. And wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him jump in.
[ Parent ]
Ed Potosnak NJ 7
Ed Potosnak www.EdforNj.com locked up the dem nom in NJ 7 this week.

He seems like a really strong candidate with a great bio.  

Eh
Lance is probably going to be around for a while.

(Although let me just say, with those looks he will easily win the shallow vote :))

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
I thought you were
I thought you were talking about Lance at first, sapelcovits, and I was going to think about your comments from then on in a whole new way. But yeah, Potosnak...schwing! He should definitely focus his ads on the Desperate Housewives demographic.

Oh man, was just looking up his recent press and he's openly gay! http://edpotosnak.com/index.ph...

He just entered my list of "candidates I may be donating to" this cycle.

But I have to say sapelcovits, it still looks like RI's Cicilline represents the GLBT's best shot to add to the (3-member) GLBT caucus.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Heh, funny
was just thinking that he looked like a guy I once asked out.
[ Parent ]
I
intend on volunteering for him once election season kicks off so hopefully he can run a great campaign even if he doesn't win.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Woah seriously?!
oh how I wish I were 30-something and living in New Jersey. ;)

But in all seriousness, it would be great for RI to have some gay representation. Cicilline hasn't been the best mayor in the world but I guess it's always refreshing to not have a mayor who's in federal prison. If the election were today I would probably vote for him, and I am fairly sure that if it's just him vs. Lynch he can win. but we shall see!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
FL-Sen
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Helpful for Crist but not worth 32 points. However if Charlie Crist is really lucky then more stuff like this will come out before September...only then might he have a chance.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

From the people who brought you Demon Sheep...
...Boxer Blimp!

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Oh my. The crazy continues!

...I would say wtf, but I think a more appropriate response would be
WTF?!?!?!?! what just HAPPENED? like seriously...even once you get past the big WTFs you're faced with tons of little ones, like the nails on the wall and how petting a cat apparently somehow connects to being a fiscal conservative.

Never a dull moment with Carly.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Fiorina is nine, count 'em, nine points behind Campbell
in the R primary according to that decent R2K poll last Thursday.
If Carly doesn't win her primary, Boxer isn't going to be her problem.

This is just one darn incompetent candidate. I hope she doesn't crater too soon.

[ Parent ]
The base loves the crazy!
Check out some of the Politico comments. And remember the CA GOP do not have a history of nominating moderates. Campbell is certainly at a financial disadvantage.
[ Parent ]
What the frak?!
If there was ever a think such as "shock and awe" in politics, I think Fiorina has just subjected the world to it. Thank god if she ever makes it to November, Boxer would of destroyed her.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Not shock and awe
Shock and awe is a deadly serious attack ad morphing triple-amputee war hero Max Cleland into Osama bin Laden.

This is just shockingly awful.

I'm serious, how could you not just be monumentally embarrassed by this? Btw, has anyone seen Sacha Baron Cohen lately? I'm starting to think her candidacy is all some kind of elaborate ruse.

And did anyone catch the "leaned profits" line about her tenure at HP? WTF does that even mean? Apparently even Carly can't spin her disastrous reign there very successfully (in fairness, her failings were so epic, I doubt anyone could). While I've said from the beginning that she'd be a massive FAILorina of a candidate, even I didn't expect she would get this ridiculous.

In fairness, this ad is slightly more effective than Demon Sheep....in the way that leeches are more effective than blood-letting in treating a cold.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
From Dictionary.com
And did anyone catch the "leaned profits" line about her tenure at HP? WTF does that even mean?

lean: to incline or bend from a vertical position: She leaned out the window.

At least the corporate crook is honest about something, she took HP's profits and bent them downward into the ground. Ironically my computer and printer are made by HP. But I'm sure they were made after Fiorina was unceremoniously kicked out.

I wonder, is she a proponent of wiretapping? Because she did a lot of that at HP before they kicked her out.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Hrm...
A reason I've been skeptical about Tom Campbell's odds of winning the Senate nod is that, after all, this is the same GOP electorate which picked Bill Simon over Richard Riordan. In the '08 Presidential primary, exit polls projected that the GOP electorate by ideology was...

Conservative - 61%
Moderate - 27%
Liberal - 12%

Assuming the electorate is about the same, I suspect the three candidates would garner around...

Campbell - 30/55/70 = 41%
DeVore - 25/10/5 = 19%
Fiorina - 45/35/25 = 40%

Perhaps DeVore siphons enough conservatives from Fiorina for Campbell to prevail? I get the sense rank-and-file Republicans are getting behind Fiorina.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Might DeVore
Call it quits if it becomes clear he can't win to stop the moderate? I'd guess probably not.
[ Parent ]
I think it's actually possible
Keep in mind, DeVore headed into this race, running to the right of Fiorina. Little did he know she'd run a traditionally right-wing campaign, appear on Glenn Beck, and relentlessly rail against Boxer liberalism. Also, I don't think DeVore's fired up the tea party crowd to the extent he expected; they'll never vote Campbell, but Fiorina's trying to play into their populist, "we want an outsider" sentiment.

I could see DeVore drop out and endorse Fiorina. If that's the case, I think she can beat Campbell by 20%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
We can only hope
I still think Boxer would beat Campbell but he would clearly be much tougher than Fiorina.
[ Parent ]
No
His head is too big. Trust me. I've talked to him. He is an asshole. He would rather Campbell than Fiorina because Fiorina was the NRSC candidate. He's bitter that the NRSC told the story about his reluctance to meet with him. He never thought they would tell that they tried to meet with him, but he ignored him. I also like how DeVore rails against politicians and says he is an outsider when he launched his senate campaign days after being re-elected and he served in House Leadership. And his supporters are totally blind to these facts! If you say any of those things they get pissed. I can not stand Chuck DeVore.
[ Parent ]
DeVore
is hoping he's the next Marco Rubio. Sorry man. Besides I want Fiorina to win the primary. Not only will Boxer knock her out once November comes around, but Fiorina's going to keep producing those crazy web ads up until November. I can already see the next one...President Obama as Dr. Frankenstein, and Barbara Boxer as Igor. Get on it Fiorina! Maybe you can win next year's Oscar for best comedic short (if there is a category like that).

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
He's not
Fiorina and Campbell are waay better than Crist. There are no pics of them nearly making out with Obama. If DeVore wins the primary, this race is safe D. Fiorina and Campbell have the ability to raise money to make it competitive and have more appeal to independents and moderate Dems than Boxer or DeVore. Plus, its not like the base is not gonna turn out against Boxer when she faces a real opponent.  
[ Parent ]
The reason I've been skeptical about Campbell
is almost solely because of Fiorina's mega-wealth. However she really hasn't been spending like she could.
(As opposed to Whittman who is spending her personal fortune like there's no tomorrow. And I just read somewhere Meg is on track to spend $150 million (!!!) in her goal to be Gov.)

My guess is that in the Repub Senate primary, no one has yet won the hearts of rank-and-file Repubs.
IF Fiorina continues to run an amateur hour campaign, with vast potential to screw up with beginner mistakes, AND turns out to be miserly with her spending, then they may well shift to a more competent candidate.

[ Parent ]
Whitman
has her attacks ads against Steve Poizner on maximum saturation. I live near San Francisco, and I've seen her anti-Poizner ads like 5 times an hour during the local news.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
So when does Poizner
Start to use his own wealth in response? I wonder if there is a chance they do their own version of Angelides/Westly here.
[ Parent ]
He went
on the air like last week. But I have a feeling Poizner is airing his ads where it really matters (Orange County). Unlike Whitman, Poizner doesn't have the money to blanket every media market in the state from now until June. He's also moving rightward, even slamming his hometown of Palo Alto as too liberal. Which hasn't earned him any praises from the local newspapers down there. Poizner's hoping that the conservative elements of the GOP rally around him and help him beat Whitman who's running to the center.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I'll definitely be saving that for a ganj break later tonight
Thanks for giving me something to look forward to!
[ Parent ]
Maryland 8th: new Republican candidate
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Murray Hill is running for this office

Joe Cooper

I wish
there were special election results to follow from somewhere.  There must be an election in Louisiana for county commissioner or something.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
New Mexico
I guess there was a state convention in NM today.

http://www.nmpolitics.net/inde...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
No
We never have those considering we don't have counties.
In October, we have 2 special election. One for Lt. Gov and Jefferson Parish President. On March 27, there is also elections for Kenner mayor and city-council.  
[ Parent ]
point taken
I meant Parish.  Be sure to live blog that Kenner election.  

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
File this comment under
"Ways to know if you're a true SSP geek"   :)

Looks like the next one scheduled on the Big Board is the Texas run-offs on April 13th.

The next primaries are not until May 4, but they are some pretty good ones: Ohio (D's Fisher vs. Brunner showdown), North Carolina (D's Marshall vs. Cunningham vs. others?), Indiana (R's Hostettler vs. Coats).

Btw, this does make me feel better about our Ohio & NC chances since it gives our nominee plenty of time to unite the party, become better known, and raise cash.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Agreed on that last point
Part of the reason I think the Ohio Dem Senate primary is this idea that Fisher and Brunner are going to beat each other to death and bankrupt each other and allow Portman to simply cruise on by with his bankroll to an eventual win.  But the early primary in May doesn't really jive with such a scenario playing out.  Really there hasn't been a whole lot of spending going on in the primary thus far either, seeing as Brunner doesn't have the money to spend, and Fisher's campaign hasn't felt the need to really saturate the airwaves as of yet.  Now that will probably change at some point given the fact that the race is very close, but it bears watching.  

Portman is going to have a very tough sell to make, despite the good environment for the GOP.  His views just don't connect with mainstream Ohio voters outside of the rural west and perhaps greater Cincinnati.  Geographically speaking, Brunner has an advantage being based in Columbus.  Fisher's based in the Cleveland area, but we all know that Cleveland is going to vote hard left anyway.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but according to Drew Carrey
Cleveland rocks! ;)

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
According to Drew Carrey
According to Drew Carrey Cleveland needs the folks from the Reason Foundation to save the city. Here is the promo for the "Reason Saves Cleveland with Drew Carey: which is coming to ReasonTV on March 15:

ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBI02nn6X0s

Regardless of what we all think of Libertarians and their ideas I think the series will be interesting to watch. Also makes me wonder if Drew Carrey ever wants to run for office.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

[ Parent ]
Drew Carey v. Dennis Kucinich?
I fear that Carey could be the next Joe Cao, except with star power.

Any thoughts that Carey could challenge Kucinich is just idle speculation.

I know he's supported Rs, and when I googled

Drew Carey Congress

The first link was to dailypaul.com (Ron, that is, suggesting that Carey is a natural Ron Paul ally.)

[ Parent ]
Carey is for drug legalization....
Carey is a real libertarian. He is for leaglization of Marijana, very liberal on social issues like marriage equality and choice and right to die. He is also pretty much agrees with Reason Foundation on economic issues. Anti tax & government intervention in peoples lives.

That's why I think it will be real interesting to watch is views on fixing Cleveland.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

[ Parent ]
Carey does sound like a perfect Paulette
As for Cleveland's finances, I wonder whether he'd go for an "orderly bankruptcy".
[ Parent ]
another election on 4/13/10 CA-AD-43 special primary
 There is a vacancy in the California Assembly right now because Assm. Paul Krekorian was elected to the L.A. City Council in December. The 43rd District includes parts of Glendale, Burbank and L.A.  The main Democratic candidates are Nayiri Nahabedian, who is a member of the Glendale School Board, and Mike Gatto, who is a staffer for Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks). There is also a "Some Dude" candidate (who is actually "Some Armenian Dude" which might split off some support from Ms. Nahabedian).  Both candidates will have credible campaigns and whichever one can get out their vote in a low turnout election will prevail.  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Hey thanks!
I'm pretty sure--yup, definitely looks like it on the map--that this is my new assembly district.  I had no idea this was happening, so thank you Zack.

Guess I need to double-check and make sure they got my new voter registration, eh?

Based on the websites, bios and endorsements (Jackie Goldberg, FTW) and the fact she actually puts some specific positions on her site instead of just generic "I'll fix this but won't tell you how" type of stuff, I'm leaning toward Nahabedian. Zack, any further insight for a new Valley resident?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I am supporting Nayiri Nahabedian
   I agree with you that she has been more detailed and substantive in her statements than her opponent, Mike Gatto. I have seen both candidates at Democratic club meetings this week. Mike is capable and may be a fine legislator but Nayiri seems more committed to a progressive vision. She is from the movement of Armenian-Americans toward voting Democratic rather than Republican. Back in the days of Gov. Deukmejian Armenians were a GOP leaning community but now are much more Democratic. There are organizations that can get out their vote, and have helped turn areas that were red districts until the '90s (like AD-43 and CA-29) into solid blue ones.

  I tend to support women for office anyway as I want to see our government reflect the population better. My mother is Armenian-American so voting for Nayiri is like supporting Mom, pizza and apple pie (or more likely Mom, lahmejune, and baklava...)

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
The winner needs to get a majority
to avoid a June 8 runoff. Think that will happen?
[ Parent ]
No
  Then the June election will be interesting as there will be a runoff for the remaining part of this term while there is a primary for the new term. The winner in April won't get a majority because all parties (3 Dems and a GOP) will be on the same ballot.  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
IN primaries
IN-09 primary between Sodrel and what's-his-face should also be pretty interesting I suppose.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Meh
My prediction is
Sodrel- 74%
Random rich guy- 19%
Random teabaggers- 7%
I actually think that the republicans would be better to nominate a fresh face rather than Sodrel.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
kucinich least valuable dem says nate silver
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

I know we're not supposed to actively root against democrats, unless we're republicans (who aren't acting like douches, although that goes both ways)but at this point I hope kucinich loses to a republican so badly it shuts him up for good.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Huh?
There's always something called a primary, you know.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
No primary opponent
According to The Green Papers, Kucinich is not facing a primary opponent.  

But yeah, rooting for a Republican because Kucinich is being a liberal purist?  

[ Parent ]
he got primaried in 2008
and he won.

A lot of people hurt our cause more than Kucinich.

[ Parent ]
That Kucinich is making it harder for us to pass the health care bill
Is enough for me. And in the case of Kucinich, this is coming from a district that should elect a member who is a solid Yes vote on this measure (that means that Kucinich's opposition in a D+8 district is actually worse than the opposition of a given Democrat from an R+8 district).

I'm not willing to give Kucinich the benefit of the doubt, especially given that it's going to be an extremely close vote in the end.

Primary the bastard, or let his district get the ax in 2012, either way just get rid of him.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Some of his votes
Are indistinguishable from those people. Whatever his reasons there is no excuse for votes against the budget, financial regulation, SCHIP, Cap-and-Trade, HCR and hate crimes.
[ Parent ]
Kucinich
"A lot of people hurt our cause more than Kucinich."

Not many IMO. He needs to join the reality based community.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Kucinich
is a purity troll. I was ticked off when he said on Countdown he wasn't voting for HCR because it wasn't single payer. Single payer would be nice, but it would never get through the senate alive. Just see what happened when Bernie Sanders introduced a single payer amendment, Tom Coburn forced the clerks to read the bill in order to kill the amendment and slow down Health Care Reform. And he voted against the Matthew Sheppard Hate crimes act? Would love to hear his explanation on that vote.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
He
panders to the far left. He is not even that progressive, he used to be pro-life before he ran for President. Yet go to Fire Dog Lake right now and you will see that they LOVE him. Gosh I hate Jane Hamsher.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Kucinich has overstayed his welcome for me too.
Primary time!
[ Parent ]
Kucinich's last primary
Was against Joe Cimperman in 2008, which was a great hope of mine, but it didn't come to pass.  

Personally, I think Tom Ganley is making a HUGE mistake running in OH-13 instead of OH-10.  He lives in Middleburg Heights, which is in OH-10, and Kucinich is a generally unloved incumbent that he could probably beat, unlike Betty Sutton who's massively popular in OH-13 and even with a huge money advantage it would take a miracle for Ganley to beat her.  I'm just shocked that is carpetbagging over to OH-13 when he's got a better shot in his own district.  

OH-10 voted 59-41 for Obama in 2008, compared with 57-42 Obama in OH-13, so there's not a huge partisan difference between the two either.  OH-10 is D+8 PVI, and OH-13 is D+5.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Oh and one other thing
Betty Sutton was the primary individual responsible for the Cash for Clunkers program.  Who was a major beneficiary of this program?  Tom Ganley.  Inevitably, Sutton is going to bring this up in a debate and what is Ganley's response going to be?  "No, we shouldn't have had cash for clunkers because it's wasteful government spending and intrusion on the free market even though it benefitted me personally by giving my dealerships millions of dollars in sales."

Really, just a horrible matchup for Ganley against Sutton.  He would get my vote against Kucinich for sure, but against Sutton, no, just no.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Yes that will be his response
he will say, "I am a rich car dealer and I didn't need the money from cash for clunkers, it could have gone to paying down the deficit or creating jobs." Really that isn't such a horrible response IMO.  
[ Parent ]
I
am not going to go as far as rooting for the seat to go republican but I do wish we could primary him. I am willing to bet that he primaries Obama or run as a green. They routinely talk about it on FDL all of the time, they think Obama is a traitor and would like nothing more than to see Kucinich run. I wouldn't put it past him either, so I would really like to see him lose the nomination. I have nothing against a member who opposes legislation because they have to (people in R+5 plus districts) but Kucinich is in a safe D+8 and is a real pain in the ass about it. So let's put it this way, I am not rooting for him to lose the general, but I won't be too upset if he does. Or we could just shop up his district in redistricting. I know we tried to primary him last time, does anyone know of some top tier candidates who would be up for the challenge now?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Could argue
He is more likely to jump into the presidential race if a primary was successful. Since I think it would help Obama by providing a contrast between the extremes I will add it to my list of reasons for supporting such action.
[ Parent ]
True
but if he was the green party nominee then he could drain precious Obama votes in Ohio, and that could hurt.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
You mean like Bob Barr did in Georgia for McCain?
Kucinich is a joke, and everyone with any brains understands that (which is exactly why the FDL group loves him). I doubt he could get enough votes to play spoiler in a Democratic primary in Ohio, much less a general election.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Difference in a tight race maybe
But I cannot see it being tight in 2012. He either loses or wins in a landslide.
[ Parent ]
Dave's Redistricting App Texas Data
I was doing something with the new political data for Texas in Dave's Redistricting App and I noticed that the demographic information seems incredibly similar to the 2000 census data. While population numbers have changed, the racial data is almost identical to the 2000 numbers. Can anyone else take a look at this and see if they think the same thing? Notwithstanding, this is a great tool and thanks Dave and Jeff for all the hard work you put into it.
Yes, by definition they are that way.
Population/racial estimates don't go down to the census block level, which is what we need to tabulate data by precinct.

Therefore, I assume 2000 racial composition by census block.

We can use 2008 population data, because we have more information available - the number of votes cast in a given precinct serves as a rough proxy for population, and uniform distribution of total remaining population growth is a somewhat supportable assumption.

We can't distribute racial population growth the same way, since that'd lead to assumptions like a precinct in South San Antonio and North San Antonio adding Hispanic population at the same rate. We probably could model that, but I'm too lazy to, haha.

[ Parent ]
CO-Sen: Ed Perlmutter endorses Michael Bennet
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
New Numbers
from Louisville Kentucky. It has some primary numbers for the mayoral and meh general numbers for John Yarmuth.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Considering
that they didn't put any actual person and put as a option "see who else is on the ballot first" I'm not sure that there is any value to that poll.

20, male, independent, WI-07.
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 127 comments

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