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SSP Daily Digest: 3/12 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Fri Mar 12, 2010 at 2:00 PM EST


NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The filing period in Nevada is now open, and there was one more surprise credible entrant in the Republican field for the Senate race, attracted by the stink lines coming off of Harry Reid. Assemblyman Chad Christensen of suburban Las Vegas, who at one point was minority whip, decided to take the plunge. That takes the number of Republicans jostling to face Reid up to a whopping 10. In other filings news, New York investment banker John Chachas decided to follow through on his planned expensive run despite usually polling with 0%, and on the gubernatorial side, Jim Gibbons put to rest any retirement rumors by filing for re-election.

NY-Sen-B: It looks like the GOP has managed to find another warm body to take on Kirsten Gillibrand. Ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi, ousted by voters from Congress over 20 years ago and now a darling of the local teabaggers, says that he'll enter the race. (JL) (Port Authority commissioner Bruce Blakeman is already in the race, and has gotten a lot of county-level endorsements, while the Beltway media is treating former Bush aide Dan Senor as their flavor of the day, seeing as how he's a guy they're all familiar with.)

UT-Sen: The start of the Utah Republican caucus process is in just two weeks, and Utah's GOP chair is busy telling outside groups to butt out, warning them that they risk a backlash for their negative campaigning. He's referring to Club for Growth, who've been advertising and robocalling to attack incumbent Bob Bennett (although they aren't endorsing a particular opponent).

MI-Gov: Much has been made of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andy Dillon's poor relations with organized labor, with the assumption that labor is now getting behind Lansing mayor Virg Bernero instead. However, Dillon managed to nail down at least one union endorsement, from the Michigan Building and Construction Trades Council.

CO-07: He'd gotten Tom Tancredo's endorsement, but that wasn't enough to keep music promoter Jimmy Lakey in the race. Not having gotten much traction against Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier in the primary, he bailed out.

IN-03: I'm not sure if that rumored teabagger challenge to Republican Rep. Mark Souder - near-legendary for his lackluster campaigning - from attorney and former Dick Lugar staffer Phil Troyer ever came to pass, but now it sounds like Souder is facing another challenge from the right (or at least from the land of the awake). Auto dealer Bob Thomas (a former head of the national Ford dealers association) is planning a run and expected to advance himself $500K to get things rolling. If he has two insurgent opponents, look for Souder to survive the split... but one well-financed one could give him fits.

MA-10: I'm not sure that "top aide to Deval Patrick" is the thing you want on your resume right now, but Ted Carr is now considering a run for the open seat in the 10th in the Democratic primary (where he'd join state Sen. Robert O'Leary and Norfolk Co. DA William Keating). Carr is currently the director of the Massachusetts Office of International Trade and Investment and is also a selectman in Cohasset.

NJ-07: Looks like Dems finally have a candidate nailed down in the 7th, although probably not one who's going to put the contest against freshman Rep. Leonard Lance squarely on the map. The Union Co. Dems endorsed educator and former Hill aide Ed Potosnak for the race, and his principal rival, Zenon Christodoulou, vice-chair of the Somerset Co. Democrats, dropped out and endorsed Potosnak.

NY-29: Here's a big break for Corning mayor Tom Reed, and, in terms of avoiding a toxic split of the kind that's sabotaged many a House special election for them, possibly for Republicans in general. Monroe Co. Executive Maggie Brooks has decided not to run in the special election to replace Eric Massa, whenever that might be held, which leaves Reed (who was running before Massa's resignation) as the consensus choice. On the other hand, Brooks is probably better known than Reed and may also have better fundraising connections (on which front Reed has been lackluster so far), so she might have turned out to be a better bet for the GOP. The Dems still have nobody lined up, although several Assembly members have floated their names.

PA-06: The Manan Trivedi Express keeps gaining steam, scoring a big endorsement last night from the Montgomery County Democratic Committee. Trivedi can place this endorsement in his back pocket -- right alongside his endorsement from the Chester County Democrats last month. (The MontCo Dems also endorsed local fave Joe Hoeffel for Governor, and declined to endorse for Senate.) Meanwhile, The Hill notes that Trivedi's primary opponent, the moneyed Doug Pike, is taking a "silence is best" approach on the topic of healthcare reform, refusing to respond to multiple requests for comment on the bill. (JL)

DCCC: Barack Obama's wading into the Congressional electoral fray on May 13, hosting a big-dollar fundraiser in New York hosted by the DCCC.

CA-LG: State Sen. Dean Florez decided to jump out of the way of the Gavin Newsom juggernaut, ending his own Lt. Governor bid. It looks like the LG race will come down to Newsom vs. Los Angeles city councilor Janice Hahn.

NY-St. Sen.: Here's one of those polls that helps restore your faith in humanity. Ex-state Sen. Hiram Monserrate does not appear to be on track to win back the Senate seat he got expelled from after being convicted of assault, according to a new Siena poll of the SD-13 special election. Democratic Assemblyman Jose Peralta is polling at 60%, followed by Monserrate (now an independent) at 15, with Republican Robert Beltrani at 9. The election is scheduled for next Tuesday.

Georgia: I can't think of how to connect this story to national politics, but it's certainly interesting just from the perspective of geographical geekery. Ever wonder about the strange shape of Fulton County, Georgia (which is kind of arrow-shaped, where the pointy part is a cluster of right-leaning mostly-white exurbs far to the north of Atlanta)? It turns out that Fulton County is a conglomerate of three former counties (Milton and Campbell), and now the Republicans in the state House are pushing legislation that would allow historic merged counties to reconstitute themselves. The racial undertone, of course, is that the wealthy exurbs of former Milton County (like Roswell and Alpharetta) would like to split off from mostly-black Fulton County... which would be a big hit on Fulton County's property tax base, so Democrats are opposed. The plan may not succeed though, as it would require two-thirds of the legislature because it requires amending the state constitution.

Humor: If you missed Scott Rasmussen's appearance on the Colbert Report last night, check it out. The actual interview itself wasn't revelatory, but the self-feeding sausage machine bit that precedes it is amazing.  

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/12 (Afternoon Edition)
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DioGuardi's beloved by hardcore conservatives, but will scare the pants off everyone else
I feel like I'm a broken record on these hypothetical cross-tabs, but I almost can't help myself...

Democrat - 45%
Republican - 30%
Independent - 25%

DioGuardi - 5/85/47 = 39%
Gillibrand - 95/15/53 = 61%

Contrast that with Blakeman, who I could see netting 10% Dems, 95% Republicans, and 55% Independents; in other words, Gillibrand by single-digits.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Joe DioGuardi
who turns 70 in September, is probably best known today as the father of American Idol judge Kara DioGuardi.

[ Parent ]
I wonder if she will be a great asset
He already said she will serve as his finance chair if he runs. I wonder if she will really be able to bring in a lot of money and star power to his campaign? Are Hollywood and NYC liberals willing to donate to a friends conservative dad with her constantly calling him, or will they just refuse to donate? could be interesting to see how she benefits him.  

[ Parent ]
NY GOP would be better off if Kara was the candidate!
NYS GOP would be better off if Kara DioGuardi was the candidate rather than her father.

They would also be better off if Dan Senor's wife Cambell Brown ran instead of her husband.

And They would be way better of if Bruce Blakeman's ex-wife's new husband ran instead. But I am not sure Sir Paul McCartney is a US citizen let a lone a resident of New York.


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[ Parent ]
Ugh
Kara is my favorite to. If she does go all political I suppose I'll either agree with Randy or Ellen.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
It doesn't really matter
DioGuardi has no chance of winning. Absolutely no chance. He is way too extreme for New York.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
And even for New York suburbs
(Westchester) when they were more conservative then now..

[ Parent ]
Hollywood liberals
I'd guess I'm probably the most "Hollywood" person on this site, so I'll take a totally anecdotal-information-driven stab at an answer, so bear that in mind:
Are Hollywood and NYC liberals willing to donate to a friend's conservative dad with her constantly calling him, or will they just refuse to donate?

I've heard Kara DioGuardi is less annoying in person than she is on the TV, but even if that's true, I could see some liberals donating to Gillibrand, actually, if a few high-profile folks donate to DioGuardi. The folks who donate to political campaigns most easily are also those who are the best-informed and likeliest to know Gillibrand fits their positions pretty well and DioGuardi doesn't.

It would depend on a few positions of his, too, to an extent: GLBT rights, libertarian issues, the environment, etc.

I'd guess the most liberal branches of the artsy industries, in order, are: theatre, music (not country), film, literature (oh ye precious few), TV, videogames, and then country music.

The videogamers have a big libertarian streak (but are apathetic, donation-wise) and the country music folk (along with assorted old Pat Boone types) could maybe be brought along...

But all in all, I'd guess the celebrity will help get calls returned, but remember, a lot of people have assistants, so it's easy to screen calls, too, if she keeps calling. Ha, actually, now that I think about it, it may all hang on whether Kara DioGuardi's assistant is any good.

Bottom line: She can probably raise enough to make him credible, but he'd need HUGE bucks to defeat Gillibrand, and I very, very seriously doubt she could do that.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Nah
DioGuardi would probably head down the same path as John Spencer. Again, I think a moderate Republican can win 45% against Gillibrand. A conservative tea-bagger is lucky to get 35% in New York.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
she'll be the good Italian daughter, I'm sure

All out for Dad on the public stage- and telling people to humor but the hell not elect the crackpot in back rooms.


[ Parent ]
NASMs
Now that Democrats don't control Georgia state government, many white, Republican areas in the Metro Atlanta area have tried to split off from counties or cities controlled by (mostly) black Democrats.  In Fulton County, the cities of Milton, Johns Creek, Sandy Springs, and Chattahoochee Hills have been created.  In DeKalb County, Dunwoody was created.  All are white, Republican areas (although Sandy Springs looks promising to us).  And all but Chattahoochee Hills are north of Atlanta.

At a meeting of the Georgia Political Science Association I attended, a grad student (in American Studies) presented a paper on this.  She called the movement the Northern Atlanta Segregationist Movement.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


Very interesting
It is sad to see that whites in the northern parts of Dekalb and Fulton so unwilling to try and cooperate with their black counterparts in the central/south parts of the county. There is also sometimes a really disgusting coalition of liberal rich whites in the more urban areas of Fulton with the rich conservative suburbanites against black candidates. This is how Karen Handel got her start as county commission chairwoman by duping liberals into supporting her against a black challenger by misleading them about her social stances.


[ Parent ]
Great Colbert Report clip
The Scott Rasmussen interview will one day be a classic.

I just saw that Vitter is up 57-34% over Melancon in the LA Senate race.  It's about time for Melancon to start chipping away on Vitter if he has any chance of winning in November.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


Why?
The only poll that matters is the last one.  You need to chip away (a) when voters are paying attention and (b) when you can afford to do so without being overwhelmed by the other guy's spending.

[ Parent ]
Fundraising
I understand what you are saying, but healthy polls can help you fundraise.  Having a poll showing you down 23% isn't going to open the floodgates for Melancon.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Melancon has $2M CoH
It's enough to be credible, but not enough to start spending eight months pre-EDay.

[ Parent ]
Yep
I still believe that if he started spending now, he will close the Vitter gap which will lead to more money.  $2M won't close this large of a gap, especially when Vitter has deep pockets himself.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Melcanon sounds good on paper, but in this cycle, I think LA-Sen is Likely GOP
Hell, the only reason it isn't Solid is Vitter's middling approval, which, in comparison to a lot of other incumbents, isn't really that bad. The electorate's gonna be around 40/40/20 Dem/GOP/Indie, and while I think both candidates can shore up their party's base, Vitter probably carries Indies by double-digits.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
He does sound good on paper
Melancon in a lot of ways reminds me of John Breaux.  I believe that Melancon should appeal to the electorate, but, as you alluded to, this cycle will be a hard one to overcome.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Echoing what some others have said on this site..
I don't see what conservadem Melancon stands for that's all that different from Vitter besides "I didn't use prostitutes." I find it hard to believe the base would get all that excited about him.  

[ Parent ]
Melancon
Melancon did vote for the 2009 Stimulus Package, which is something Vitter would never support.  Melancon has quite a bit of economic populism that should be attractive to this state, along with conservative social views.

That being said, there's nothing sexy about Melancon that's going to excite the base.  Democrats will have harder and harder times in Louisiana as the years go by.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
The base
In LA, there isn't much of a liberal base. Even in New Orleans, many of the Dems are moderate. LA isn't like many states. There are many, many Democrats who can't remember the last time they voted for a Democrat.  

[ Parent ]
That's pretty much true in all of the Deep South
There will be pockets of areas that tend to be liberal, but you are right, there isn't much of a liberal base.  At the same time, economic populists can do wonders within these states.  

I wasn't referring to Melancon as attracting the liberal voters.  I couldn't imagine liberals being excited about Melancon at all, but instead as the lesser of two evils.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
Not even exciting the base
Exciting anyone!  He's run such a nondescript campaign against a man who not only has very, very serious ethical issues but is also one of the worst economic nutjobs out there, and a corporate shill at that.  He doesn't have to run to the left on social issues, and he doesn't have to present himself as a "liberal" on economics; he just has to differentiate himself from the guy who is willing to stick his neck out for chemical companies that are causing leukemia.

It's not like Louisiana doesn't have a history of turning to anti-corporate candidates...


[ Parent ]
What you stated is right on the money
Melancon's campaign hasn't done a good job of painting vitter for the whackjob that he is.  That's a shame, because Vitter's voting record is probably a better fit in LA than Vitters.  Melancon is a social conservative (a plus in LA), an economic populist (another plus), and he's been fairly clean on an ethical perspective (probably doesn't matter in a state that had Edwin Edwards as governor for 16 years).  I think his campaign needs to develop some style, or no one will care.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Ethical problems
Not an issue at all in a state that, as you said, elected Edwin Edwards 4 times and would readily elect him again if he ran.  

[ Parent ]
Oh how true
I think Louisiana is attracted to candidates that have some sort of baggage.  Edwards, Long, Vitter, etc have had significant success.  This may be one reason why Bill Clinton was able to carry LA in both 1992 and 1996.  Clinton's personal issues probably didn't hurt him at all here.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
It is only March
This when you gotta raise the money for the ads, not air them.

[ Parent ]
It's a Pandora's box
You do have to "raise money" now, but you also have to be somewhat close to bring in the cash.  Melancon isn't there yet, so it's time to attack so he can make a bump in the polls.  Not many people are willing to throw money away to a candidate that's 20+% behind.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
NY-St. Sen.
Hilarity! Protesters showed up the Monserrate/Peralta debate with lipstick slash marks all over their faces and heckled the crap out of ole Hiram.

http://www.nydailynews.com/new...

First, Harold Ford, now Monserrate...truly, it couldn't have happened to nicer people. I Heart New York.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


I think this editorial from Queens Tribune says it all!
I think this editorial from Queens Tribune says it all:

http://www.queenstribune.com/n...

"Special Election
One campaigner for Jose Peralta's effort to replace Hiram Monserrate in the Senate wrote: "Let's bring honor and integrity back to the 13th State Senate district."

Sadly, electing Jose Peralta does not do that. Jose is involved in a campaign account scam hiding thousands of dollars of illegal money by filing false instruments. He refuses to discuss the matter with this newspaper. He has failed to return calls to schedule an interview as a candidate. He is an apparent crook who is about to capitalize on the disgraceful behavior of Hiram Monserrate who made no friends in insider circles as he fought for his community and also himself personally.

Hiram sat in my office last week and asked: "Would the paper possibly endorse me?"

I replied to Hiram, "If I were writing the endorsement today, I would say 'the 13th Senatorial District pits a thug against a crook, welcome to New York.'"

While we expect Peralta to win, we would not consider casting a vote for him. It is clear to us he continues to cover up his wrongdoing, shows no contrition and is unprepared to allow an up-close review of his financial wrongdoing. We have enough of such people in State government.

While supporting Hiram Monserrate would be difficult enough in light of his clearly abusive incident, he has compounded our reason to keep him out of the State Senate by voting against the Marriage Equality Bill.

It seems to us that in the likely event that Peralta wins next Tuesday, we will see Monserrate run and win Peralta's former Assembly seat where his Marriage equality stance will have no meaning in a house overwhelmingly committed.

And at the end of the day, the people of Jackson Heights will have gotten themselves both the crook and the thug.

Welcome to New York."

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[ Parent ]
Didn't know that about Peralta.
But I'd rather the crook than the thug.

But yeah, welcome to New York.


[ Parent ]
"Vote for the Crook. It's Important."
.

[ Parent ]
Actually they are both crooks!
Actually they are both crooks. Only one is a crook and the other is a crook and a thug!

Really sad that this is what NY politics have come down to. Us being happy to elect a guy who is clearly corrupt because he will throw us a bone & vote our way on a wedge issue like marriage equality (that and he has not beaten his girlfriend like the other guy does).

No wonder NY is going to hell.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
at least the crook is pro-marriage equality
n/t

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
PA-06
isn't Montgomery County Pike's base? Pretty good news for Trivedi either way. I really want to see a poll of the primary there. (and I guess general election #s against gerlach would be nice too)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


my guess
Pike has polled it and refuses to release the numbers.

[ Parent ]

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