Public Policy Polling (3/5-8, registered voters, 8/14-16/2009 in parens):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 43
Jane Norton (R): 43
Undecided: 14Michael Bennet (D-inc): 45
Tom Wiens (R): 37
Undecided: 18Michael Bennet (D-inc): 46 (39)
Ken Buck (R): 36 (35)
Undecided: 14 (26)Andrew Romanoff (D): 44
Jane Norton (R): 39
Undecided: 17Andrew Romanoff (D): 44
Tom Wiens (R): 36
Undecided: 20Andrew Romanoff (D): 45
Ken Buck (R): 34
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4.1%)
The one saving grace for Bennet here is that, while he holds an unsurprisingly poor 32-46 approval rating, the GOP front-runner, Jane Norton, isn’t looking too great herself. Her favorable rating is 25-35, which is not something you usually see for relatively undefined challengers so early in the game.
These numbers also confirm what we’ve been seeing in other polls suggesting that Andrew Romanoff is in better shape for the general election than Bennet. Jensen has some good words of caution about reading too much into that, though:
I would be cautious about declaring Romanoff to be the more electable candidate based on these early numbers though. Bennet has had all the negatives of incumbency- being associated with an unpopular majority party during a recession- without the positives- defining himself positively to the voters on the airwaves in the context of a statewide campaign. If Romanoff is still doing better than Bennet four or five months from now once the voters have started really paying attention the electability argument might carry more heft.
Particularly as there is a chance it could be Buck. Though I guess with her fumbles Norton may be just as beatable. I hope they polled the primary. Don’t recall seeing any previous numbers at all.
Bennet will do better against Norton if he can improve with hispanics.
Plain and simple. He has the political experience Bennet doesn’t.
we’re bouncing back. could be a natural tightening based on the place in the cycle, could be a change in the environment
Independent – 35%
Republican – 35%
Democrat – 30%
Bennett – 45/5/95 = 47%
Norton – 55/95/5 = 53%
I think Romanoff might perform slightly better among Indies, but I’d give Norton the edge either way.
It’s refreshing to get poll numbers from other pollsters. I wouldn’t want this site to stop reporting on Rassmussen, but people should always keep in mind he’s just one view of what the electorate could look like in November (and he really does get some insane results at times).