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9-5 Non-VRA map of Georgia

by: fitchfan28

Thu Mar 11, 2010 at 2:30 AM EST


An 9-5 Democratic map probably. I will quickly give a rundown of the districts followed by a few maps of the districts.

District 1 (blue): 46% black and 45% white, probably John Lewis territory more than anyone else but man would the folks in Paulding and Bartow counties be pissed to be in a district with the west side of ATL. Probably the most ridiculous district.

District 2 (green): 45 percent white and 44 percent black, amazing considering how all the black population is concentrated in a chunk of Fulton and a sliver of Clayton. David Scott would probably run here.

District 3 (purple): 48% white and 42% black, Clayton and east Dekalb make this a Democratic district probably. I have no idea what Democrat would run though.

District 4 (red): 49 percent white, 39 percent black. Probably my favorite district. White percentage doesn't necessarily represent GOP percentage because of Clarke county which is 60% white yet 60% Democratic. I think Hank Johnson would want this one or...

District 5 (yellow): Very diverse district, 40 percent white, 34 percent black, 17 percent Hispanic, 8 percent Asian. Similar to the 4th, white percentage includes liberal whites in east Fulton/ west central Dekalb. Another possibility for Hank Johnson?

District 6 (teal): 49% white, 25 percent black, 19% Hispanic, 6% Asian. Getting desperate here but this would no doubt be a Democratic district due to once again liberal whites in ATL plus the majority-minority status of the district. Have no idea who would represent this but definitely not Tom Price.

District 7 (gray): Finally a GOP seat in Metro ATL (6-1 delegation for Dems so far)! Tom Price and Phil Gingrey battle it out here for a 76 percent white, safe GOP district.

District 8 (periwinkle): I'm pretty sure I helped Jim Marshall out with this one stretching across Middle GA. 56% white, 39% black probably pretty close to 50-50 for Obama/McCain (7-1 Dems).

District 9 (light blue): Screwed up a little here but Barrow should be safe. 54% white, 40% black so less black than now. I was attempting to get a Democratic south east GA district by diluting Barrow's district but you'll see that's not happening... (but we have a 8-1 Dem advantage).

District 10 (neon pink): 65% white and 28% black. Not quite good enough to elect a Democrat considering the hostility of SE GA whites towards Democrats (8-2 Democrats).

District 11 (yellow-green): pretty much the same as Sanford Bishop's pre 2006 district. 52 percent white and 41 percent black I think a Democrat would be fine here (9-2 Democrats).

Districts 12-14: well the Republicans had to go somewhere... All these districts are between 75 to 82% white. I think the 12th would be Westmoreland's, the 13th is similar to the open 9th and the 14th get's rid of Paul Broun so hurray for that!

With the three additional GOP seats that brings me to a 9-5 Democratic advantage. Pretty unrealistic but entirely possible if not for the VRA guidelines. Honestly though I think this might expand black representation because of the additional metro ATL seats but I worry in a bad cycle the 11th and the 9th could be in danger for Democrats. Still even if those fell we'd be tied 7-7, gaining a seat.

North GA:

NGA

South GA:

SGA

Middle GA:

CentralGA

Metro ATL:

MetroATLzoom

fitchfan28 :: 9-5 Non-VRA map of Georgia
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As a Bartow Countian....
...I would love to have John Lewis as my representative.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Haha indeed
Well I bet you'd be in the minority there. The first district was kind of my experiment to see how many really hard core GOP counties could reside in a Democratic district.

[ Parent ]
Well, this map raises a simple question
is VRA good or bad for Democrats from pure electoral politics perspective? For me the answer is obvious.

Depends where it is
In some deep red states like Mississippi it helps Democrats. In states like Illinois it's a hindrance. It all depends how Republican the white population is.

VRA in the south hastened the fall of Democrats there, but I'm not inclined to mourn that, as propping up conservative white Democrats with progressive black votes just serves to depress black turnout.


[ Parent ]
Probably,
but in my opinion it's better to have in Congress a lot of "centrist" Democrats (there are no more "really" conservative Democrats in Congress now like 30-40 years ago) then few liberal (usually - Black) Democrats and a lot of ultraconservative Republicans.

[ Parent ]
I think in metro ATL the VRA should be reexamined
Right now that's the only part of GA that has majority black districts and I think there are plenty of white voters in Dekalb and Fulton (less so in Cobb and Gwinnett) that would vote Democratic.

NC has the VRA on a county by county basis and I think it may be fair to restrict the VRA to the rural portions of GA or at least eliminate Fulton and Dekalb at the very least (perhaps even Clarke due to the fact there are blacks elected county wide in a 27 percent black county there and two majority black commission district will be tough to draw).  


[ Parent ]
Speaking as a European
Your centrist Democrats would be on the conservative side in plenty of right-of-centre parties over here.

Sure, John Barrow isn't a segregationist. But if that's progress enough, then I'm for more aggressive enforcement of the VRA. Segregation of vote is not a good thing, but if the only way you can avoid aristocratic conservatism is by appealing to blacks and whites to vote their economic interests separately, it has to beat the alternative.

I tend to think the seats Democrats lose because of racist whites produce very few policy benefits - their current incumbents might vote for Obama's healthcare bill, but only because it's not the transformative change the system needs. And if blacks are treated as an ignored base, conservative Dems have no reason to try to grow their base beyond blacks and conservative whites. Only when Democrats can appeal to poor southern whites on an economic basis are we going to see America move away from its decade-long rightwing tilt.

But that's policy. You're free to disagree. I'm just glad I don't live in a country where John Barrow is a centrist.


[ Parent ]
How do you think this would shake out
on the basis of the 2004 or 2008 runoff votes?

Could be as bad as 8-6 GOP
But again that put Democrats back were they are now except it would redistribute them from rural middle and south GA to the Metro Atlanta area. I think even for run-offs you would be hard pressed to see a Republican hold a 40 percent or so black district. I have always heard that 41 percent is the magic number for black percentage necessary to elect a Democrat in the South. So using that guideline Bishop's seat would be safe and Marshall and Barrow would only be in jeopardy but only in a worst case scenario would they even sweat here.  

[ Parent ]
Fine With Me
Using your map, Marshall would be my Congressman again.

Thank you :)


I made a somewhat similar map a while ago
http://swingstateproject.com/d...

28, Unenrolled, MA-08


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