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SSP Daily Digest: 3/11 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Mar 11, 2010 at 7:58 AM EST


  • FL-Sen: Insider Advantage, polling on behalf of the Florida Times Union, confirms what PPP sees in the GOP primary. They have Marco Rubio eviscerating Charlie Crist, 60-26. Charlie Crist better figure out his exit strategy in a hurry, or else he'll have a lot more time to spend on back waxes come September.
  • KY-Sen: Some Dude Bill Johnson said he's bailing on the GOP primary to succeed Jim Bunning, saying his internal polling looked cruddy. He'd spent a few hundred grand of his own money, but yeah, I never heard of him either. He does have a perfect Some Dude name - according to the SSP tags, there's another Bill Johnson running in Ohio this cycle, and still another running in Alabama!
  • NV-Sen: How is this man still in office? The New York Times reports:"Previously undisclosed e-mail messages turned over to the F.B.I. and Senate ethics investigators provide new evidence about Senator John Ensign's efforts to steer lobbying work to the embittered husband of his former mistress...."
  • CO-Gov: In an apparent bid to out-nut his party-mate Jane Norton when it comes to outlandishly conservative proposals on the "restructuring" of basic governance, Scott McInnis was caught on tape at a recent Tea Party candidate forum suggesting that the state Department of Education be looked at as a possible target for elimination. (JL)
  • GA-Gov: Georgia Dems are pressing the House Ethics Committee to wrap up its investigation of Rep. Nathan Deal, who is slated to resign from the House at the end of the month. If they don't finish by then, there's a good chance they'll just drop the investigation - something, in fact, they just did with regard to Eric Massa.
  • HI-Gov: This is interesting. We noted the International Longshore and Warehouse Union's endorsement of Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hanneman in the Dem primary yesterday, but we didn't look at their rationale. One of their reasons ought to appeal to progressives: Hanneman, like the ILWU and Sens. Dan Akaka and Dan Inouye, has backed Colleen Hanabusa over Ed Case for the HI-01 May special election. Rival Neil Abercrombie has stayed neutral, which looks like a big mistake, given how powerful the ILWU is in Hawaii.
  • NY-Gov: Trying to forestall attempts to find a better candidate (or shove him from the race), Rick Lazio rolled out a bunch of endorsements from a bunch of Republicans who are all retired these days: former Gov. George Pataki and former Reps. Amo Houghton, Sherwood Boehlert, and George Wortley. I had to look up Wortley - he hasn't served since 1989.
  • MI-07: Look out, John Kasich! Tim Walberg says "I was Tea Party before there was a Tea party." He also says he lost in 2008 "because McCain was not a true conservative and people were tired of moderates."
  • NY-14: With Democratic majorities at risk and progressive power in Congress at a troubling ebb, too many powerful New Yorkers seem only too happy to back an unabashed pro-bankster neophyte challenging a liberal female incumbent. I'm talking about Reshma Saujani, who's running on a platform of kissing Wall Street's ass ("If you go to Texas, you'll never hear a Congressional member speak poorly of the oil industry") against Rep. Carolyn Maloney. Oh, but don't worry - Saujani's got all the important things covered. At a recent women's fundraiser, one of her supporters assured the crowd, "But it gets better, look how fashionable she is. She'll definitely be the best dressed person in Congress."
  • NY-29: Former Rep. Randy Kuhl has decided he won't try to win his old seat back. Instead, he's endorsing ex-Corning Mayor Tom Reed. Incidentally, Kuhl must have had the worst oppo team ever when he was actually running for office, no?
  • SC-02: Ugh - Dem Rob Miller, who raked in a couple mil he never otherwise would have seen after Rep. Joe Wilson's "You lie!" outburst, is making some unforced errors. He kicked a TV reporter and camera crew out of a speech to a local Democratic club, and then tried to later claim he had done no such thing. Unfortunately, contemporaneous emails contradicted Miller's claims. I really hope that Miller's elevation to Red to Blue status means he's going to get some professional campaign assistance, and that he's not just being fleeced for his Brewster's millions.
  • Redistricting: I love this diary - possumtracker takes us on a magical mystery tour of some of the most extreme possible majority-minority districts, in places you probably never thought such districts could exist. Let's hope actual map-drawers (or the DoJ) don't take too many cues, though, since these kinds of districts would likely kill many neighboring Democratic seats.
  • Robocalls: The Republican Attorney General of Indiana, Greg Zoeller, chastised the NRCC yesterday for its use of robocalls introduced by a live operator. Zoeller says that, while legal, the NRCC's tactics violate the spirit of a tri-partisan treaty signed between the state's Democratic, Republican and Libertarian parties banning the use of robocalls in the state. Zoeller asked the NRCC to suspend its use of robocalling in the state. Typical for the NRCC, they told Zoeller to go twist. (JL)
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/11 (Morning Edition)
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    Good point on Kuhl
    It's amazing to me how much is coming out on Massa that should have been easy to find out.

    Also, I think Tom Reed wins this seat now


    If the NY-29 election coincides with the General
    I think you're underestimating the pull of three strong D candidates atop the ticket (Cuomo/Schumer/Gillibrand).

    Nevertheless, until a D candidate is known, I would say this district --slightly-- favors Reed in that scenario.

    But with the right D candidate (anyone talk to Corning CEO William Weeks yet?), I think this could change significantly.


    [ Parent ]
    I don't think the coattails will be that pronounced in NY-29
    Despite winning 63-36, Obama still lost the district, and Clinton/Spitzer's wins in 2006 don't look to have resulted in major wins in the district.

    [ Parent ]
    I'd rather just lose the seat
    Rather than trying to create a map to protect that many incumbents (and risk something like Pennsylvania happening in New York).

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Dunno
    It always looks bad losing a seat. In a vacuum I would agree. But could really do without giving them more momentum if at all possible.

    [ Parent ]
    I agree with you
    It would be easier to just combine this district with NY-26 and wipe out a republican rather than either trying something fancy with NY-20/23/24/21 or moving upstate south to try and squeeze out King.

    This works to make NY-29/26 one big GOP sink hole and try and just redistrict King into something harder to win without squeezing him out of existence.

    Shot term loss, long term gain.

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


    [ Parent ]
    Sounds like y'all believe no other NY D will lose in in '10
    While not impossible, I find it unlikely that we won't have other upstate NY losses.

    Specifically, I'm not sure that Owens/Arcuri/Hall/Murphy will all survive the '10 election. While I think all of them are currently modestly favored, they're all relative political neophytes.

    I think it would be amazing if all 4 make it through the '10 campaign without making some significant unforced errors.

    If one of those 4 lose, they all have districts that could be split up.

    In addition, we do have some older upstate Ds who may be about to retire (in '12), e.g. Hinchey and Slaughter come to mind. Both have districts that could also be split up.

    In other words, I think conceding NY-29 would be stupid. If I remember right, NY has had an upstate southern tier district of one sort or another for decades. I think it is a community of interest - of modest sized towns. I'm not sure that the current territory of NY-29 would be split up.


    [ Parent ]
    Yep
    Same deal in PA-12. People are suggesting letting that go too. These seats are too important in the short term to be playing redistricting games with. Cross that bridge when we come to it.

    [ Parent ]
    Why NY-29?
    It's already a somewhat unfriendly district with lots of deep-red territory (Steuben and Allegany have a fair number of precincts where McCain got into the 70s, in a down year for the GOP) not really found much elsewhere upstate. And in many of those other areas the trend lines, especially in the Hudson/Taconic/Albany zone, generally look good.  

    Most people in the January contest who were trying to protect Massa, myself included, drew some ugly-looking districts that connected areas many hours apart with little in common with each other.  Shoring up the other potentially vulnerable Dem seats in upstate NY seemed somewhat easier.  

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03


    [ Parent ]
    It's not so much that I'm conceding NY-29
    More that I'm recognizing the political reality of that particular district (and our complete lack of a bench there). As for the others, the only one of those four you mentioned I'd be worried about losing is Arcuri at the moment (and I wouldn't be particularly sad if he went either, just because of his terrible performance in 2008).

    Either way, the chances are pretty damn good that any redistricting plan will probably involve giving the ax to NY-29, since it is where the population loss is happening and will have the least senior member of congress, regardless of anything else.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Which is exactly why I didnt enter the contest
    I didnt find it fun trying to shore up that many incumbents because I think we'd be a lot better off sacrificing someone in order to give just about everyone else a better district.  

    Although, the problem with it being Massa to go is that his district is already quite barren when it comes to Dem precincts to tease out to use to shore up other incumbents, and it's located poorly as well.  Now, if this were Arcuri, well, there is a lot magic that can be done by him losing.

    Question, is Upstate actually shifting to the Dems or have the voters up there just been pissed off for two election cycles?


    [ Parent ]
    Clarification
    Im not advocating sacrificing someone, just saying we'd probably be better off.

    [ Parent ]
    NRCC = weak
    From the way their conduct their business to their crappy fundraising, they haven't been the strongest of organizations lately.  

    I question how much they are going to be able to help their challengers win seats this cycle.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    VA-01: Rob Wittman getting teabagged?
    Northern Neck nutbag Catherine Crabill, last seen losing a race for the House of Delegates last year, is collecting signatures to challenge Rob Wittman in the Republican primary. Crabill is most notable for the video of her saying, "We have the chance to fight this battle at the ballot box before we have to resort to the bullet box," Crabill said. "That's the beauty of our Second Amendment rights ... Our Second Amendment rights were to guard against tyranny." Not only that, she believes the Oklahoma City bombing was an inside job.

    Despite her general craziness, she only lost to Del. Al Pollard by a 52-48 margin. Most of that can probably be attributed to McDonnell's crushing 69-31 win in the district. As to why she's challenging Wittman, well... I think it may be personal.


    NY-14 Really? Coming down that hard on Saujani?
    Give Saujani a break. She makes a very valid point. NY-14 is the Upper East Side of Manhattan! The HQs of Citi, JP Morgan and tons of other banks are in the district and employ residents of NY-14.

    No one is shocked if a Rep from Washington State defends Boeing or Microsoft so Saujani makes a very valid point about Maloney not not sticking up for her hometown industry.

    I think her critic of Maloney is fair. The silk stocking district makes more in political donations out than any other district in the country.

    Saujani is making a point that maybe the districts Rep should be a leader rather than just another hack politician.

    It's a fair critic and I think it will be interesting to see how it plays out with voters in the district.

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    There are plenty of negative things to say about Maloney, Im sure
    but hack politician doesn't seem like a very legit one.

    [ Parent ]
    From my perspective
    Sitting on the Lower East Side of Manhattan and having grown up on the Upper West Side, the entire New York State Congressional delegation votes as if they represent the Wall Street Company Town. What has Maloney done to diverge from the rest of them? Has she voted to audit the Fed, for example? Has she voted in any way that has ever annoyed the big deals on Wall St. who I would accuse - and I doubt this is controversial (but if it is, let's not debate it here) - of ruining the economy? I ask these questions not to provoke a debate on whether it would be right and in the interest of most of their constituents for members of Congress representing New York to rein in abuses on Wall St., though my opinion should be obvious. I ask these questions merely to cast doubt on the idea that Congresswoman Maloney is in any way an enemy to the Powers That Be on Wall St. in the slightest. And I'll await your response with interest.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Don't get me wrong....
    No one is saying that Maloney is an enemy of Wall Street. I just wanted to point out that Reshma Saujani makes a very fair point about Maloney uniformly toting the party line vs advocating for the issues of the district.

    NY-14 sends way more money in taxes to Washington than it gets back from DC. It is a districts with one of the biggest deficits in taxes collected vs spending recieved from Washington.

    It's one of the the few districts in America where a family of four earning $250,000 a year would not be considered rich. In fact in Manhattan on $250,000 a year you could barely afford a 1,000 sq ft 2 bedroom apartment!

    NY-14 is different. Saujani is arguing that the district should have a Rep that is more than just a party line voter.

    We will see if this is a campaign message that will work.

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    [ Parent ]
    I'm not a fan of primaries where the
    Democratic incumbant is accused of being too Democratic.  If Maloney wasn't good for her district she would have been gone already.

    [ Parent ]
    I am honestly shocked at your attitude
    Wall Street is literally the definition of The Man. It is the definition of powerful and well-represented. Fuck, these guys destroyed the world economy yet got a $700 billion bailout, no questions asked and no strings attached. And you think they deserve even more representation?

    Hell, if Wall Street is unhappy with Maloney, that makes me like her even more! Maloney could be the most strident opponent of Wall Street interests and yet the street would still be wildly over-represented in the halls of power. Far too many members of Congress kowtow to Wall Street at every opportunity. I certainly don't want mine to do so as well. And I don't even think of Maloney as particularly populist! And yes, I live in this district.


    [ Parent ]
    Just saying...
    New York City's tax base is depends on Wall Street. The NYC and NYC are in fiscal crisis because Wall Street is in crisis. Lots of those bank employees and people whose livelyhood depends on those banks live in the district. Just saying that running in NY-14 on a platform of looking out for the hometown industry isn't such a crazy strategy.

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    [ Parent ]
    MI-07
    I really enjoy this Walberg-Rooney dynamic. There were a lot of moderate Republicans who hated Walberg after the 2006 primary-- enough to make Sharon Renier competitive, and many of whom crossed over for Schauer in 2008. As long as Walberg and Rooney try to out-teabag each other, it's just going to alienate those moderates even more.

    And don't forget that Schwarz will likely be on the ballot as an independent for governor. I don't expect him to be a real contender in that race, but his GOTV campaign is bound to target his old base-- moderate Republicans in Calhoun and Jackson counties.

    Schwarz's old stronghold of Battle Creek (Calhoun County), as luck would have it, is also Schauer's hometown and the Democratic base of the district. If Schwarz can drive up moderate GOP turnout there-- and they stay disgusted by whomever the Republican nominee is-- that might be enough to make up for depressed Democratic turnout. Schauer has to win big there to win, and the moderate Republicans might help out. At this point, I think Schwarz is probably going to help Schauer more than whoever the Democratic nominee for governor is.

    But that's all wild speculation at this point.


    Schauer Win
    Schwartz is not going to run for Governor. Besides that, I agree with everything else you said.

    Just to be open and fair, I interned with Congressman Schuaer last year and I'm a big fan of his. He is a loyal progressive and votes with the Dems even though he is in a R+2 district. While a large number of Democrats from toss-up districts wanted the Democrats to become more moderate Schauer said on CNN that Democrats are going to lose if they don't motivate their base. Schauer voted with the Dems on the energy bill and health care and I think has a 100% record on the major bills. I think his only "blemish" is his vote for the auto industry bailout, but being from Michigan he had to.

    Just like Fitzy said, Schauer needs a bloody Republican primary but he'll most likely get it. Walberg won in 2006 with the help of Club for Growth and I don't think in 2010 he's on their radar (with Rubio and Toomey). Ideally Walberg out Tea Parties Rooney and then flops due to his craziness and his horrible fund raising numbers.

    Schauer is one of the Democrats 10 best freshman incumbent fundraisers. He is taking this race seriously and I think if he wins in 2010 he'll be a lock for the next 10 years, especially if Lansing is re-districted into the 7th. I could see Schauer running for Governor or Senator in the next 10 years. He is definitely a true progressive that Michigan progressives should rally around.



    [ Parent ]
    CA - Gavin Newsom running for Lt. Gov.
    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

    Newsom made it clear at Wednesday's media event in the Tenderloin that a run for California lieutenant governor is a foregone conclusion. Just a few hours after the event Newsom pulled the paperwork at the elections office and paid the fee to run. He'll make it official today or Friday.

    And CW Nevius burns him for the choice, calling him the next Gray Davis....


    I give this a big ole meh
    Having lived in SF since late August, I have learned that he isn't particularly as progressive as you think he would be when being mayor of a city like San Francisco.

    I'll have to see if anyone else enters the primary.

    20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


    [ Parent ]
    There were already others in the primary.
    Namely State Senators Dean Florez (majority leader) and Alan Lowenthal. And Republican State Senators Sam Aanestad and Jeff Denham were already in the race before Arnold proposed appointing Maldo after Garamendi was sworn in to Congress.

    My blog
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    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    Alan Lowenthal? How about Janice Hahn...
       I hadn't heard anything about Sen. Lowenthal running for Lt Guv. One of the major candidates is Janice Hahn, who is an L.A. City Councilmember and member of a famous political family. Her father was the legendary Kenny Hahn, longtime L.A. County Supervisor beloved in the Black community (though they are white folks), and her brother is James Hahn, former Los Angeles Mayor and Controller.

     I saw Janice Hahn at a recent meeting of a local Democratic club. She thinks she has a good chance of winning because of her L.A. base, being the only woman in the race, and running as an outsider from Sacramento as opposed to a sitting Senator. Hahn also said that her issues background would be a good match for the office of Lt Guv; she has been involved with infrastructure and transportation issues (she represents the L.A. Harbor area) and her interest in education. She said that as a U.C. Regent (one of the roles of the LG) she would work hard to try to stop fee increases for students at the UC and CSU university systems. So far I am leaning towards supporting her, but am interested in hearing from the other candidates.

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


    [ Parent ]
    These people need to grow up
    "Conyers has been in Congress longer than Barack Obama could spell."

    "Why is an African-American president calling to push an African-American governor out of the race?"

    http://www.politico.com/news/s...


    The CBC are giant hypocrites
    They cant complain about Obama not listening to them and not working on their agenda and then complain when Obama harasses them for not following his, with the Ellison and Conyer's examples.

    Bah, being a liberal Democrat is such a head ache.....  A million different constituent groups on an extremely large scale of left-to-right, we can all agree to vote for the Democrat but when it comes to legislative goals, what a clusterfuck.  Im only 23, should I just give up hope on ever being happy politically as a liberal American because winning just simply isnt enough for the Democrats to get shit done.


    [ Parent ]
    I'm beginning to agree - at least for now.
    This is the first time I can remember a Democratic president and Democratic Congress together, and it is sorely disappointing.

    However, I do have hope that as time passes, this country will generally move toward more liberal goals given the make up of the population and the age/ideological split.  I just don't like waiting.


    [ Parent ]
    Bill johnson
    Well then I'm guessing the internals I saw that had him in 2nd place ahead of Rand Paul were wrong.  

    I thought Rand Paul was in first place these days.
    So yeah, I'd guess so.

    [ Parent ]
    CA-Sen/Gov: Brown and Whitman neck-and-neck, Boxer only slightly ahead
    Good for Brown and Boxer


    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    A
    4 digit lead isn't great, although Boxer will pull through.

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Four digits?
    I'd kill to be leading by over a thousand points. :p

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    This is the one close race I'm not really worried about.
    Boxer will win.

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed!
    And I throw IL into that category at all.  I hope to throw PA into that category once the race shapes up appropriately and Toomey is exposed for being a right wing maniac.

    [ Parent ]
    Kos smoking opium I guess
    "Poizner is the ultra-conservative teabagger candidate in the race"

    Um, no.  Poizner is by any measure left of center within the Republican party.  He sees himself screwed by Meg's TV barrage so he's racing to the right, but the dude has been a lifelong moderate, favoring abortion rights, etc.

    Characterizing him as ultra-conservative is ultra-inaccurate.


    [ Parent ]
    This is why I don't like Daily Kos
    I've rarely seen them credit a Republican as moderate, and they seem to base their entire site on a sort of seething, sometimes misdirected anger. By the way, the same sort of anger provided the foundation for the whole political career of one Eric Massa, whose behavior after getting elected always seemed quite bizarre. These emotions were never really suited to trying to make things work in Washington, and they are a major flaw of much of the netroots community as well.

    [ Parent ]
    Well said
    Well said gv516. Totally agree. And BTW, thats why I like Swingstate so much. Good real insight from people who know there stuff as opposed to sites on both the right and left that see things through seething anger.

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    [ Parent ]
    Seconded.


    My blog
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    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    They pretty much all called Scott Brown a "teabagger"
    before the election, and if anything is conclusively proven based on his voting record since the election, it is that he is not remotely close to being a teabagger.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    I think it's all part of electioneering
    As I understand it, one of the implicit purposes of Daily Kos is to motivate those who work for D candidates.

    To campaign and get the best chance to win over voters, it's pretty standard to suggest that your opponent is extreme to some degree.

    The current word in vogue for "right wing extremist" is "teabagger".

    If Daily Kos is helping put such words in the mouths of people pounding pavement for D candidates, I believe such rhetoric helps the D cause.


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, I get your point on this
    So they engage in propaganda, sacrificing accuracy in order to motivate political action. I can understand that, but it conflicts with the oft-repeated claim of their being a "reality-based" site.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    That
    along with the fact that I am very much a numbers-and-analysis person who has little enthusiasm about debating the issues, was why I stopped visiting sites like Kos. Many on the far left have begun to annoy me as much as many on the far-right with labeling all Republicans as teabaggers like labeling all Democrats as socialists, etc.

    My blog
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    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    While there are a lot of PINOs on Kos
    It's not as bad as other sites. While I focus on numbers too, most of you have seen snippets of my views over the past few months.

    On another unnamed site, I was considered so right wing, a front pager on that site wrote a front page diary to implicitly compare my views to that of a pre-Civil War slaveowner.

    There are a lot of people on Kos who do enjoy numbers as well. It is a sufficiently diverse community - but it's also too crowded for me.


    [ Parent ]
    You mean strident left
    NOT "far left." There is almost no far left in the U.S. political spectrum. The far left used to be represented by the Communist Party - U.S.A., which is essentially - and blessedly - defunct. There is one U.S. senator who is an avowed democratic socialist - Bernie Sanders - and he would be just a bit left of center in almost any European country. Sorry, as a social democrat myself, I strongly object to the idea that people who are merely loud and somewhat irrational people of a progressive/liberal point of view are "far left."

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    MO Senate numbers
    Blunt-47%
    Carnahan-41%

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    We've not seen non Rasmussen Missouri numbers since November.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


    Which is exactly why I still think Carnahan has the edge
    Until someone other than Rasmussen shows me otherwise.

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks David!
    I'm glad you liked my diary, it was fun to make and think about. The best part of this diary though has been the response from everyone, including other people designing and posting their own maps of districts in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Virginia, and Washington (as of 8:30 Thursday). This is why I love the Swing State Project so much, what an awesome community!


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