With redistricting looming, one of the most important parts of the 2010 elections (at least for most states) is the race for the state legislatures. Democrats won big in 2006 and 2008, but with the national climate souring, local Democrats may find themselves dragged down by their Washington counterparts. So I thought I’d take a look at the state legislative elections going on this year; first, I’ll be looking at the chambers controlled by the Democrats, and second, I’ll take a look at Republican-held chambers. Some of this is still pretty tentative, as filing deadlines for most states have yet to pass, so candidate recruitment is still a question.
A few notes first: there are a few legislatures not up this year: Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia will have their elections in 2011, while the Kansas and New Mexico Senates are both elected in Presidential years. Finally, the Nebraska unicameral is, of course, nonpartisan.
Also, for the current composition, Democrats are listed first, Republicans second, and independents/others listed third. Vacancies are not noted, and the numbers were pulled from Wikipedia, so they’re not perfect. Also, I am using the generic term “House” for the lower house of each legislature. I know some are called Assembly, it’s just simpler to do it this way.
Finally, I obviously don’t have my ear to the ground in all 40-odd states that I’m covering, so a local perspective is always welcome.
Democrats are going to be mostly playing defense this year, defending legislatures they won in 2006 and 2008, states where their popularity is lagging, like North Carolina, and states where the Republicans at the top of the ticket are expected to have a good year, like Pennsylvania and Ohio. I’ve ranked them based on the likelihood of flipping, and comments follow all except the safe legislatures.
Lean Republican takeover
Indiana House (Currently 52/48) – Democrats were expected to lose this chamber in 2008, but thanks to the strong Obama campaign, they were able to actually increase their caucus by 1 seat. It seems much less likely that, in the negative national climate for the Democrats, they will manage to pull off that feat again. Compounding problems is the fact that Democrats are only contesting 18 Republican seats, while Republicans are running against 41 of the 52 House Democrats.
Pennsylvania House (Currently 104/99) – Democrats have managed to cling to a slim majority through the last two cycles, thanks to Democratic landslides at the top of the ticket. With Corbett on track to clean up in 2010, the trend will likely reverse itself.
Tossup
Alabama Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 60/45) – One of the remnants of the Old South, the Alabama legislature has remained in the hands of the Democrats since the end of Reconstruction. The Republicans have had several special election victories lately, shaving away at the Democrats’ majorities in each chamber. The Democrats here have weathered plenty of bad election cycles, but it is unclear whether they will be able to do so again in 2010.
Iowa House (Currently 56/44) – Before 2006, the Iowa legislature remained split almost evenly, with voters selecting narrow Republican majorities. The Democrats, of course, had two great election cycles, winning a majority in 2006 and narrowly expanding the majority in 2008. Unfortunately for them, Terry Brandstad looks likely to decimate Chet Culver in the gubernatorial election, which may spell doom for the House majority.
Montana House (Currently 50/50) – The Montana House is split right down the middle, with only Brian Schweitzer giving the Dems control. The Republicans will only need to net one seat to win it back.
New York Senate (Currently 32/30) – Possibly the most dysfunctional state house in the country, the New York Senate’s pro-Republican gerrymander has almost entirely survived three successive Democratic landslides, with the Republicans needing only one seat to tie and two to take back control. Democrats will have to guard all their seats in order to prevent another decade in the weeds.
North Carolina Senate (Currently 30/20) and House (Currently 68/52) – North Carolina’s government is extremely unpopular, from Governor Bev Perdue down to the state legislature. The Republicans are hoping to finally take control of the legislature, which I believe they have failed to do since Reconstruction. They are contesting every Democratic seat in the Senate and nearly 60 of the 68 Democratic House seats, while the Democrats have left a majority of the Republican seats uncontested.
Ohio House (Currently 53/46) – Another Republican gerrymander which finally broke in 2008, Democrats are defending a narrow majority. Term limits will give Republicans a shot at ten open Democratic seats, and a number of freshmen are up also. Compounding matters for the Democrats is Gov. Ted Strickland’s fall in popularity; they don’t have a 60-38 margin to back them up this time.
Wisconsin Senate (Currently 18/15) and House (Currently 52/46/1) – The Wisconsin Assembly was another house where Democrats gained a narrow majority in 2008, while they picked up the Senate in 2006. In the Senate, they will be defending four freshman who scored narrow wins in 2006, while in the House the Republicans will need to pick up four seats to regain control (there is an independent who is retiring in 2010, but I’m not sure which party he caucuses with, if any).
Lean Democratic
Colorado Senate (Currently 21/14) and House (Currently 37/27/1) – Democrats were riding high in Colorado earlier this decade, winning two Senate seats, three House seats, the Governor’s mansion and the state legislature. Bill Ritter’s retirement is probably a blessing to them, as John Hickenlooper is looking to be a much better candidate under which the legislature can run. I won’t be surprised to see the margins narrow in the 2010 election, but Republicans still have an uphill climb to win back the legislature, especially since they have Dick Wadhams running the show.
Delaware House (Currently 24/17) – It took Democrats a long time to scrape together a majority here; the previous Speaker of the House, Republican Terry Spence, served in that capacity for over two decades, just to give you an idea of how solid the Republican majority had been. But, times change, and the Delaware Republican Party is on the ropes, given that Mike Castle is their only candidate able to win a major statewide election these days. Good news for Democrats is a couple of Republicans in vulnerable districts have opted to retire, giving them offensive opportunities as they defend their current 24 seats.
Maine Senate (Currently 20/15) – Although solidly Democratic on the Presidential level, Maine remains more competitive on the local level. Republicans controlled the House up to 2006, while the Senate has remained closely-divided in recent years, with the Democrats only hitting 20 seats in the 2008 elections. Democrats should be favored to hold the Senate, but with the race for Governor still nebulous, it’s hard to say what party will have coattails.
New Hampshire Senate (Currently 14/10) and House (Currently 223/176) – It was an historic win for New Hampshire Democrats in 2006; the state legislature hadn’t been controlled by the Democrats since the 19th century. Of course, a big swing one way can swing right back in a bad year. Luckily for Democrats, John Lynch will be leading the ticket again, likely winning an overwhelming majority of the vote.
Likely Democratic
Iowa Senate (Currently 32/18) – While Democrats have a large majority in the Senate, 19 of the 25 seats up this year were won by Democrats in 2006, giving the Republicans ample targets. Boosting the Republicans’ chances is Terry Branstad’s likely landslide in November. However, it still requires a 7-seat swing to tie, which is a tall order regardless of the number of potential targets.
Michigan House (Currently 66/43) – With John Cherry out of the picture, Michigan Democrats actually have a fighting chance at the governor’s mansion, which is good for Dems downticket; there will be no double-digit victory pulling them over the finish line this time, but neither will they be facing a tsunami in the other direction.
Nevada Senate (Currently 12/9) – With only 11 of the 21 seats up, and only five of the 11 held by Democrats, Republicans would need to pick up two of the five while not losing any of their own seats to take control of the Senate. Not an impossible task, but very difficult, given that the Democrats have at least one or two seats targeted as well. The unpopularity of the Reid boys would be the only thing that could drag the Senate’s Democrats down.
Oregon Senate (Currently 18/12) and House (Currently 36/24) – Democrats don’t hold an overwhelming majority in the Oregon legislature, but it looks like Democrats in Oregon have managed to escape the poor national climate. With John Kitzhaber and Ron Wyden leading the ticket, they shouldn’t have too much problem retaining their majorities.
Safe Democratic
Arkansas Senate (Currently 27/8) and House (Currently 72/28)
California Senate (Currently 25/14) and House (Currently 49/29/1)
Connecticut Senate (Currently 24/12) and House (Currently 114/37)
Delaware Senate (Currently 15/6)
Hawaii Senate (Currently 23/2) and House (Currently 45/6)
Illinois Senate (Currently 37/22) and House (Currently 70/48)
Kentucky House (Currently 65/35)
Maine House (Currently 95/55/1)
Maryland Senate (Currently 33/14) and House (Currently 104/36/1)
Massachusetts Senate (Currently 34/4) and House (Currently 144/16)
Minnesota Senate (Currently 46/21) and House (Currently 87/47)
Nevada House (Currently 28/14)
New Mexico House (Currently 45/25)
New York House (Currently 106/42/2)
Rhode Island Senate (Currently 33/4/1) and House (Currently 69/6)
Vermont Senate (Currently 22/7/1) and House (Currently 94/48/8)
Washington Senate (Currently 31/18) and House (Currently 61/37)
West Virginia Senate (Currently 26/8) and House (Currently 69/31)
Democrats hold significant majorities in all of these legislatures, and even in states where Republicans are experiencing unprecedented chances at Congressional seats, they are hampered by poor candidate recruitment downticket.
Unbelievable that a state that has been democratic for president 6 straight times could be looking at a 2nd straight republican redistricting gerrymander. That just boggles my mind.
Of course, the last time the Rs had a shot at Pennsylvania they blew it pretty badly, so I’m not exactly shaking in my boots.
Jeff Wood is the independent representative from Wisconsin. He was a Republican from 2002-2008, and had multiple conflicts with party leadership. The Dems cut a deal with him that they wouldn’t run a Dem against him if he became an independent and caucused with the Dems, so that’s what he did. He really didn’t change his Ron Paulish views at all–he voted with Democrats many times while he was a Republican, and voted with Republicans many times while caucusing with the Dems.
Incidentally, he’s retiring because of multiple drunk driving and drug charges. He already had a couple DUI’s before running for re-election in 2008, and after being re-elected, had a couple more DUI’s and was also charged with marijuana possession. Although I believe marijuana should be legalized, I also believe lawmakers should not be running around with it until they legalize it, so I am glad he is not running for re-election.
I don’t think the Republicans have enough pickup opportunities in the Iowa Senate to get it back this year. Their best case scenario is a three or four seat net gain, setting themselves up for 2012 (when redistricting scrambles everything).
I am hopeful that Staci Appel will be able to defeat challenger Kent Sorenson in Senate district 37. Sorenson recently shot himself in the foot by saying he’d never vote for Terry Branstad for governor.
Democrats are going to seriously challenge one Republican senator: first termer Dave Hartsuch already has two declared Democratic opponents, plus a GOP primary challenger.
On the down side, Republicans landed a couple of good recruits: Bill Dix in Senate district 9 and Sandy Greiner in Senate district 45. First-term Democratic Senators Bill Heckroth and Becky Schmitz will have to fight hard in these districts. I think there may be some right-wing backlash against Greiner in the SD 45 race.
Although I think Democrats have a better than 50/50 chance of holding the Iowa House, your tossup rating is fair. It’s not hard to look at the map and find seven Democratic-held seats we might lose. We are going to defend two open seats in the Sioux City area, for instance (background here and here). Republicans have decent challengers in some districts in the Waterloo and Davenport area, and in House district 9 in NW Iowa. The first-term Democratic incumbents in House districts 89 and 90 may be the most at risk. Curt Hanson narrowly won district 90 in a special election last summer. A conservative Democrat narrowly won House district 89 in 2008.
If we can pick up one or two Republican-held House seats, though, taking back the chamber becomes much more of an uphill battle for the GOP. I like our chances in the open House district 74 and think we have a chance at defeating a Republican incumbent in House district 37. If we can recruit a good candidate, we should have a shot in the open House district 51, which State Representative Rod Roberts is vacating in order to run for governor.
is that Republicans have been winning on election day but losing when all the early votes are counted. The Iowa GOP still does not know how to run an absentee ballot drive. That saved several of our incumbents in 2008. Republicans know this is a problem for them, but they still got outhustled on early voting in the House district 90 special election last summer.
That is why I am hopeful Democrats will hold the Iowa House. I think the Republican GOTV machine is weak and won’t allow them to maximize their gains.
there will be Democratic gains in a few other places. Picking up majority in the Michigan state Senate seems within reach. Perhaps we’ll have net gains in Florida state House seats, in one or both chambers of the Arizona legislature (Obama choosing not challenging McCain in Arizona, which I thought a major mistake, led to serious and undue Republican overshoot in seats there I believe). And possibly we’ll get to 2/3 majorities in the California legislature.