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SSP Daily Digest: 3/8 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon Mar 08, 2010 at 8:09 AM EST


  • FL-Sen: Appointed Republican Sen. George LeMieux apparently has no intention of being a mere seat-warmer. He's carving out a pretty active profile, and the speculation is that he wants to take on Bill Nelson in 2012.

  • SC-Gov: The once-expansive Democratic gubernatorial primary in South Carolina has been whittled down even further with the exit of attorney/lobbyist Dwight Drake on Friday. We're now essentially left with a two-way race between state Superintendent Jim Rex and state Sen. Vincent Sheheen, although underfunded state Sen. Robert Ford is also in the mix. (JL)

  • IN-04: Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies has a pair of surveys out in two adjacent, dark red Hoosier State districts. The first poll, taken for Secretary of State Todd Rokita, has him at 40%, with a 50-6 approval rating. State Sen. Mike Young is in second place at 10%, and two other dudes are in single digits. Everyone tested apart from Rokita has sub-30% name ID. A ton of candidates have filed for this seat, and the primary is just two months away.

  • IN-05: Meanwhile, GOP Rep. Dan Burton is also brandishing a POS poll, this one showing him with 46% of the vote and no one else in double digits. Burton barely survived a challenge from Marion County coroner John McGoff in 2008 (winning 52-45), though I don't think that internal looks all that great. McGoff is running again, but in Burton's favor, so are five other dudes.

  • MA-10: State Sen. Robert O'Leary (D) is officially in the race to succeed Bill Delahunt. Many other Dems are likely to jump in, including Norfolk D.A. William Keating. State House Assistant Majority Leader Ronald Mariano is also weighing a run. Incidentally, we ran the numbers, and MA-10 is the most Irish district in America, at 33%. (The rest of the top ten: PA-07, MA-09, PA-13, PA-08, MA-06, NY-01, MA-07, NY-03, and NJ-01.)

  • NY-29: Politico reports that former Corning Mayor Tom Reed is becoming the consensus choice for the Republican Party. Seven of eight county chairs in the district have backed Reed, and these are the guys who will pick a nominee if there's a special election. Considering that Reed hadn't raised very much, and that other big names are now weighing the race, this is a somewhat surprising development.

  • TX-23: Ex-CIA spook Will Hurd, in a runoff with richie rich Quico Canseco, picked up the endorsement of the third-place finisher, physician Robert Lowery, who scored 22% in the first round of the Republican primary. 2008 nominee Lyle Larson, who himself beat Quico in a primary, also threw his support to Hurd.

  • Consultants: The Hotline has a monster-sized searchable database of consultants - you can see which consultants worked for which campaigns, or vice-versa, in several different specialties (polling, mail, media, etc.). Very cool.

  • Number Crunching: Did you know that Microsoft Excel 2010 Beta is available as a free download? A list of key new features is here.
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    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/8 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 3/8 (Morning Edition) | 66 comments
    Burton would be toast
    .... if he were running against just one other challenger. He not only is facing off against "five other dudes," but several top-shelf candidates.  Luke Messer is former head of the Republican Party in the state, Mike Murphy a well though of (in conservative circles) state Rep, Brose McVey gave Julia Carson her toughest re-election campaign in 2002, and Dr. McGoff, the former Marion County coroner.  Of course, the problem is that the are going to split the anti-Burton vote, and have started to get testy with each other -- heads-up, I think any of them could beat him.
    That,
    and McGoff can't run the kind of campaign he did last cycle because he's a reservist and spent the last several months called up to Afghanistan.

    Burton needs to hope that the challengers all go nuclear on each other without dragging him into the center of the pie-fight. That they'll go nuclear is pretty much inevitable, but that they won't focus entirely on each other isn't. If it becomes a "let's everyone beat up on the incumbent first, THEN on each other" session, people will be reminded of how badly they dislike Burton in the first place and he could very well end up losing anyway in an anti-incumbent year. Personally, I don't think it'll happen, but when it comes to Dan Burton, one really can't underestimate the man's erratic, self-righteous stupidity. He would be the Jim Bunning of the House if the House weren't so anonymous by design.

    Even if Burton wins, I think there's a better than good chance he retires in 2012 anyway, and we'll have the same guys (minus McGoff) clobbering each other all over again two years from now.  

    [ Parent ]
    MD-Gov - Ehrlich apparently getting in.
    http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...
    This has relevance to another Ras poll from the past week or two, which found O'Malley up 49-43 in a rematch.  Not helpful to have another Guv seat in play, but I think we'll hold this one by 5-10.  Maryland is so tough for the Republicans now.  It's very blue and trending bluer, plus sharing the ticket with a shoo-in in Mikulski.  O'Malley seems to have recovered from shaky approvals early in his tenure.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    Correct link on this
    http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Massa allegation revealed; Massa goes conspiracy theory!
    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    So the Democrats are so desperate for a one-vote shift on healthcare that they engineered a story that cost them at least a negative news cycle.  OK Eric.  

    That said, the comment that Massa allegedly made sounds like bad locker room humor.  It does not necessarily suggest to me that he's (a) gay or (b) actually coming on to the male staffer.  I guess I would have had to have been there and know Massa better to divine his intention.


    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    FYI
    When I click on both your links, neither of them direct me to complete URLs.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large
    [ Parent ]
    Here is correct link.
    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    More from Massa
    This guy seems like he wants to be a Reverand Wright style albatross:

    "Rahm Emanuel is son of the devil's spawn... He is an individual who would sell his mother to get a vote. He would strap his children to the front end of a steam locomotive."

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    LOL
    I love Rahm, but by most accounts that sounds like a fairly accurate assessment on Massa's part - maybe minus the "son of the devil's spawn" bit.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    come to think of it, Rahm would probably agree with two-thirds of this quote.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    "son of the devil's spawn"
    Wouldn't that make him the devil's grandson?

    Massa should be careful using Christian language criticize a Jewish politician, but the as the past week or so have shown us, Massa is anything but careful with his language.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    If wish Rahm was as good as Massa claimed.

    Nothing he said makes me like Rahm less.  We could use a few more Democrats who know how to play hardball to get stuff passed.

    NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
    [ Parent ]
    I wish they were as good cleaning up shop
    With regard to ethics more generally. But I guess Rangel's seniority buys him more time.
    [ Parent ]
    I'm hoping Adam Clayton Powell IV somehow beats him.
    Would be beautiful just for the symmetry.  Two powerbrokes taken down by their own hubris and greed.  Both undone by among other things trips to the Carribean.  The son avenging the father.  Course he may have to beat his DWI case in court first.

    That said what has happened to Rangel really saddens me.  I like the guy.  I think he is a great legislator who has done good work and could potentially do a lot more.  But just as Republicans should not be giving passes to the Duke Cunninghams and Tom Delays we shouldn't be doing the same to our own.  The fact that he is a good congressman makes his fall more tragic and not the least bit less necessary.

    NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

    [ Parent ]
    Agree 100%
    Incidentally, I just read this at Kos.

    "By the end of the show, Massa is saying that passing Health Care Reform via reconciliation will tear the country apart and that the only way to stop it from passing is to get his story (presumably the alleged plan to force him out of Congress) on to Fox News to let the public know what the Democrats will do to get the bill passed."

    Nutty as a fruitcake.  

    [ Parent ]
    Oh lord.
    What a disaster.
    [ Parent ]
    Link
    http://www.talkingpointsmemo.c...

    It gets worse. I can seriously see this guy hurting the repeal of DADT.

    [ Parent ]
    DADT is dead as is
    One year study on the effects of changing the policy is code for 'we have no idea how we'll get the votes so we're punting it'

    But that's policy.

    [ Parent ]
    DADT
    As a republican, I can honestly tell you that the repeal of DADT is inevitable. Gay rights are one of those issues that's relentlessly moving into the mainstream.

    Just look at the cpac conference. Not only was GOProud, an openly pro-gay marriage group invited to speak but the sole voice in criticizing them was practically booed off the stage by the far-right of the GOP.

    Unlike other contentious issues like abortion, Gay rights is not an issue that can be logically and passionately opposed. DADT is in it's final days.

    [ Parent ]
    Politicians are giant wusses and too risk adverse
    And its really unfortunate that young people like myself dont participate and dont really make politicians beholden to them.  If we voted like the older crew did, politicians would certainly take our opinion much  more so into consideration.  That's the real problem I think with gay rights, the part of the population most for them are the ones least active in politics.
    [ Parent ]
    Why would this have a bearing on DADT?
    And I don't agree that DADT repeal is dead, by any stretch of the imagination.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Well he comes across as a bit of a fruitcake
    In a mental sense.
    [ Parent ]
    The Blago defense
    Massa, like Blago, was fighting against the system and that's the real reason he's being forced out. It had nothing to do with his sexually harassing a male staffer. He's completely innocent. Just another victim. The Dems really need to start vetting their candidates better. How many headcases are in this party?  
    [ Parent ]
    I was a little defensive of him at first
    But this is getting beyond the pale here. "Mine is now the deciding vote on the health care bill"?

    Alan Grayson may be 'one fry short of a Happy Meal', but I'm pretty sure at this point Massa's got him beat.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

    [ Parent ]
    Oofda
    That is the stupidest reason ever to resign and he really shouldnt put the blame on the Democratic leadership.  Yeah, they are being hard asses (about time!) but come on, it doesnt make them right and doesnt mean you shouldnt stand up to them and not resign  Hell, standing up to your leadership when they tried to get you to resign over policy things, that would most likely only make a constituent want to vote for him more so.

    Unless, there is more dirt to be had on Massa.

    [ Parent ]
    Good point
    Why the hell resign if he feels so strongly? And now he goes on Glenn Beck? Almost like he is having a breakdown. Very sad.
    [ Parent ]
    TX-23
    I love how Repubs keep shooting themselves in the foot here by beating up on Quico.  He is their best shot, and he keeps getting beaten by people who are not electable in this majority-minority district.  On its way to happening again.  Way to go, GOP!

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    I think the vote on Railroad Commissioner tells you all you need to know about the Texas GOP
    "Some Dude" with an Anglo surname can beat an (albeit appointed) incumbent with a Hispanic one by more than 20 points.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Totally
    And another reason to be hopeful for Bill White with his Hispanic running-mate. Even if he comes up short this year it is only a matter of time before Texas goes the way of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada.
    [ Parent ]
    WI-Sen - More Tommy Thompson speculation.
    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

    PPP polling a few months back suggests this would be good news for Feingold, while Rasmussen recently suggested it would not, showing Thompson slightly ahead.

    Republicans are pretty close to putting the majority in play in the Senate.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    After they got Hoeven and Castle
    I've been expecting this. Maybe Pataki will also shock everybody.
    [ Parent ]
    NY-29 special election speculation - will it coincide with the regular election?
    from the Politico story

    Several New York sources speculated that with his administration mired in scandal and the state in financial crisis, Paterson could wait until the fall to schedule an election that coincides with the already scheduled November ballot.

    The story suggests that the special election would take place 30-40 days after the proclamation.

    It's a bit difficult for me to believe that Patterson (or whomever might be Gov in Sept) could wait that long to declare that seat vacant. Though I suppose that depends in part on the actual date of Massa's resignation.

    If the NY Gov could wait that long, it would be helpful to have the D candidate running on the Cuomo/Schumer/Gillibrand coattails.

    Agree with me
    With all the fuss Massa seems intent on kicking up I don't see how state law would allow Paterson to do that.
    [ Parent ]
    Not November but September...
    NY has primaries in September. They could have special during primaries to save money.  

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    [ Parent ]
    From the last para of the Politico story
    "If I'm the chairman of the Democratic Party, I want this special election in November with Andrew Cuomo and Schumer at the top of the ticket," said one senior New York Republican operative.

    So at least that unnamed R operative seems to believe that a Nov special election is possible.

    But it's hard to believe - I'm not sure Patterson (or whomever) can even wait until late July to make his declaration. (late July would support a special election that coincided with the primary)

    But perhaps there is precedent. (But NY-23 doesn't work as a precedent - McHugh didn't resign until Sept 21 '09, which worked with a special in Nov.)

    [ Parent ]
    What's the point of a special in Nov.?
    Do we really need another one of those Representative for a month, like they had in Texas with the infamous Shelley Sekula-Gibbs?  I fail to see how that's helpful.

    Also, the Sept. primary might have to be moved to allow for the millitary to get their ballots on time, no?  So who knows when that will be.

    [ Parent ]
    Isn't the suggestion then
    Just to leave the seat vacant until the general election for a full term? Which also doesn't seem legal to me.
    [ Parent ]
    Personally, I think the special should either be called right way
    or yeah, wait.  Not for politics, but for money reasons.  Specials are expensive.

    As for legality, I'm not sure if someone could sue to force a special.  That would be an interesting wrench.

    [ Parent ]
    The GOP could certainly use it
    Against the Dem. The primary date seems like a decent compromise to save money.
    [ Parent ]
    The only problem with the primary
    date is that I would bet that it must be moved because of the new military ballot laws, so now we're talking about a floating target.
    [ Parent ]
    When is that likely to be decided?

    [ Parent ]
    With the NY state government the way it is...
    I'd say God only knows when (or if) it'll change.
    [ Parent ]
    Exactly
    If the special were held in Nov, the election would presumably also carry on into the next congress.

    I do not know if that is legal, but I think (can't recall specifics) there might be precedent for that.

    Of course, there's the "small" question on whether it would be legal for Patterson to wait that long. However, if Patterson were to resign a few weeks after Massa,

    then there would be a question on who is the legal NY Gov - the court challenges to such (if any) could conceivably delay the declaration of vacancy.

    And politically, it would be most advantageous for Ds if the special in NY-29 coincided with the 2010 general election.

    [ Parent ]
    Argument
    The primary would be better. GOP turnout in November could hurt.
    [ Parent ]
    you raise an important question w/r/t strategy
    No question Rs will be energized nationwide in 2010.

    But D turnout is better in general elections when compared to primaries.

    So the question is whether Rs will also turn out in such increased numbers during a primary.

    I suggest that the "coattail" effect of Cuomo/Schumer/Gillibrand atop the ticket (and Gillibrand's name is helpful upstate) would work better in November, but am not sure.  

    [ Parent ]
    Oh agree
    Was just throwing it out there. I think legally, not to mention morally, November is a hard sell.
    [ Parent ]
    Found this bit - which suggests Patterson can wait 18 months
    http://blog.timesunion.com/loc...

    This article was written after Gillibrand was appointed to replace Hillary Clinton, back in Jan '09

    Paterson noted that state law says he's not absolutely required to act until July 2010. "That seems like an awful long time without representation, I'll tell you."

    Assuming this (and my interpretation) is true, Patterson can set the election date just about any time he pleases (presumably by Nov)

    [ Parent ]
    I wonder what Patterson was basing that
    statement on.  
    [ Parent ]
    Mmmm
    I wouldn't trust much of what Paterson has to say on anything. Though I suppose he is the decider. At least for the moment.
    [ Parent ]
    One bit on NY election law, linked from JamesL's diary
    http://law.justia.com/newyork/...

    If I'm reading this right, since Massa's resignation is happening in a regular election year, Patterson doesn't even have to call a special election

    (although he's allowed to do so assuming Massa's resignation actually happens before July 1).

    [ Parent ]
    I suspect
    that a special election held the same day as the general would only pertain to the lame duck session at the very end of the 111th congress. The question of who fills the seat in the 112th would presumably be a separate question on the ballot.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large
    [ Parent ]
    Exactly.
    It would be impossible not to do it this way.  There's no way they can fill the end of the 111th Congress and the 112th in vote.  There would have to be two.

    Now I assume, unlike in the Texas example above, both parties' candidates would run in both the special and the general, so there probably wouldn't be a lame-duck congressman in place for the end of the 111th Congress.  But it still seems silly.

    [ Parent ]
    Don't know about NY
    But in NJ, the 2006 special election to replace Bob Menendez - who was installed as Senator in January - was scheduled for the same date as the November general election.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large
    [ Parent ]
    Difference
    That seat isn't up for a full term until 2010. It doesn't seem right to leave a seat vacant for more than six months to fill it for just two.  
    [ Parent ]
    Or even 2012

    [ Parent ]
    JFM110 meant the special for the
    Congressional seat that was vacated when Menendez became senator.  So basically, the seat was vacant for a year.
    [ Parent ]
    Doh!
    Sure. Apologies. But is New Jersey law different?
    [ Parent ]
    I'm talking about the House seat
    NJ-13 was vacant for nearly an entire year.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    Sorry about that. Surprised there wasn't a fuss made about that.
    [ Parent ]
    Much more leeway in Jersey
    [ Parent ]
    NY29 Massa Scorned
    Classic
    "Do you know how awkward it is to have a political argument with a naked man?"
    [ Parent ]
    Hogan is out
    SC-Gov
    Anyone here know anything about our field?  I'm not expecting them to be the most progressive Dems in the world, but how are they ideologically?
    What the hell is this?
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    Seriously, other polling shows improving fortunes so he cranks up his crazy likely voter model to take a leak on us? This is getting beyond a joke. Next up Toomey leads by twenty points!

    Yeah, I dont even give a shit what they say anymore
    Save for comparison purposes.  For example "All other pollsters show OH-Gov moving more in our direction except for Rasmussen."
    [ Parent ]
    SSP Daily Digest: 3/8 (Morning Edition) | 66 comments

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