State Senator David Shafer (R) is out. Shafer had shown ambition earlier this cycle with a run for Lieutenant Governor (which was aborted when the incumbent, Casey Cagle, decided to run for re-election instead of running for governor), but says he wants to be closer to his family. Former Atlanta Braves pitcher John Smoltz is likewise out, declining after apparently not even knowing he was considering.
State Representative Clay Cox (R), however, is in. The other announced Republican, State Senator Don "the Hutt" Balfour has gone on record supporting massive tuition increases saying, "We're becoming a socialist society when we say that you shouldn't raise tuition at all...is embarrassingly cheap." See here.
Also considering the race, on the Republican side, are State Representative Jeff May, Gwinnett County Republican Chair Chuck Efstration, Assistant DA and Gwinnett County Commissioner Mike Beaudreau (see link for Cox on these three), hyprocritical Bible beater extraordinaire Ralph Reed, State Representative Bobby Reese (he'd be switching from the race in the 9th to the 7th, where in lives), and State Representative Tom Rice.
For Democrats, speculation centers on 2008 candidate Doug Heckman, who got 41% in the district. Heckman is currently serving in the Army Reserves, so he won't be announcing anything for now. He had also been considering a run for the 47th State Senate seat, left open by the decision of Republican Senator Ralph Hudgens to run for insurance commissioner. SD-47 is far more Republican than GA-07, so Heckman would have it easier in the Congressional district, at least on that criterion.CORRECTION: I was thinking of 10th district nominee Bobby Saxon when I wrote that. Saxon is the one considering a run for the 47th Senate seat.
State Representative David Casas (R) has decided to run for Balfour's open seat. Although both seats have the makings of ticking time bombs for the Republicans, the house seat (the 103rd) is far more promising for us. In 2008, Allan Burns (who ran against Linder in 2006), held Casas to under 55%. Burns told me today on Facebook that he's considering another run.
Our chances at picking up these other seats are much, much slimmer. Brooke Nebel has been running against Rice for several months. Parts of the district (the 51st) are promising while others aren't. Cox's 102nd lies along the DeKalb-Gwinnett border. You'd think that will be a prime location for a pickup. Yet, for some reason, this area is a dead zone for us. Randy Sauder briefly represented the area as a Democrat, but he switched parties (from Republican to Democratic) while in office and never ran for re-election as a Democrat. May's 111th district is in rural, Republican Walton County. Balfour's seat is like Rice's some pockets of strength and a positive outlook someday, but probably not there right now.
