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GA-Gov: Barnes Narrowly Leads All Republicans

by: Crisitunity

Wed Mar 03, 2010 at 1:58 PM EST


PPP (2/26-28, registered voters):

Roy Barnes (D): 40
John Oxendine (R): 39
Undecided: 21

Roy Barnes (D): 41
Karen Handel (R): 36
Undecided: 23

Roy Barnes (D): 43
Nathan Deal (R): 38
Undecided: 19

Thurbert Baker (D): 33
John Oxendine (R): 42
Undecided: 25

Thurbert Baker (D): 33
Karen Handel (R): 40
Undecided: 27

Thurbert Baker (D): 30
Nathan Deal (R): 40
Undecided: 30
(MoE: ±4%)

Looks like it's a good year to be running as whatever party isn't in control. That's good for the GOP at the federal level, but in a lot of statehouses, that may be good for the Dems. Georgia may be one state where that's the case -- incumbent GOP Gov. Sonny Perdue, who's term-limited and not running, has 29/52 approvals. And the various Republicans running to replace him all trail their likely Democratic opponent, ex-Gov. Roy Barnes, according to PPP's first poll of the race.

PPP has one important caveat, though: Republicans are more undecided than Democrats in each of the three matchups, with the probable reason that Barnes has high name rec from his previous term as Governor, while the three leading GOPers (Insurance Comm. John Oxendine, former SoS Karen Handel, and Rep. (for a few more days) Nathan Deal). The numbers may move more in a Republican direction as the candidates become better-known. Still, Barnes is starting out in a good place, and it looks like he may have picked the right year to try and get his foot back in the door.

RaceTracker Wiki: GA-Gov

Crisitunity :: GA-Gov: Barnes Narrowly Leads All Republicans
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The Nets Telleth All
Another House retirement: frosh Eric Massa.

Dammit
Thanks for nothing.

[ Parent ]
Apologies in advance
If health related.

[ Parent ]
GA
Why doesn't Baker jump over to the Senate race?

29/D/Male/NY-01

The major caveat
Given that Barnes is already well-known statewide (he's a former Governor, after all), I don't see how he would have all that much room to improve on these numbers.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

I do.
He has shitloads of money while the Republicans are in the middle of a free-for-all primary and will go to runoff.  Plus, Oxendine and Deal especially have had scandals.  Barnes' money + Republican scandals = lots of damaging ads against the Republicans.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Right
Still, though, we'd be sounding the alarms around here if an incumbent Democrat were hovering in the low 40s and Barnes is, essentially, an incumbent.  Though as you pointed out, the Republicans being unknowns right now may actually end up working in our favor.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

[ Parent ]
Exactly
A better question is why would Barnes ever be lower in the polls? Considering he already has been defined in the past as evidenced by his 2002 defeat and that he is well known among voters I don't see his negatives going higher. Looking back it will be obvious to voters that 2002 was a much better time for GA than what's going on now and with the 2010 budget cuts which are proposing eliminating funding for higher education I think a message of change from the terrible governance seen by Republicans will sell well statewide. Plus once people find out about the sketchy ethical records of Oxendine or Deal or the inexperience of Handel that'll hurt them even more than what they could throw at Barnes.  

[ Parent ]
Can someone educate me as to what Oxendine's scandal is?


[ Parent ]
Scandals. Plural.
He's currently the state insurance commissioner, an elected position here in Georgia.  It was found an insurance executive funnelled money to Oxendine way over the state limit.  See here.

This executive is later appointed by Oxendine. to the state board that has power to review and delegate to other companies the policies of failed insurance companies. See here.  I didn't even know about this one until just now.

Oxendine's father is fired from a board for directing money to a consultant with ties to Oxendine.  See here.

Several months later, Oxendine's son shoots someone accidentally while hunting with the same executive on said executive's land.  See here.

And it turns out, he accepted trips to the Academy Awards, meals, limos, hotel rooms from a donor.  At the time, Oxendine was handling a dispute between the donor, a doctor, and Blue Cross Blue Shield. See here.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]
Wish someone would do head-to-heads in the Senate race.
Hadley, our only announced candidate right now versus Isakson.

Thurbert Baker vs. Isakson

Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond vs. Isakson

State Democratic Party Chairwoman Jane Kidd vs. Isakson

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


PPP released some yesterday
Not so encouraging for Baker. Unless he wants to change his name to Generic D.

[ Parent ]
Thanks.
That is rough.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
As with all Georga Gov threads,
I must post this AMAZING video

Just make sure you aren't drinking anything when you watch it.



20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


I still can't believe that was an actual campaign ad.
It looks like something someone would do for an undergraduate campaigns and elections class.  Hell, I've seen BETTER ads from a campaigns and elections class.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I would hope
That anyone producing a WORSE ad in a campaigns and elections class would be flunked immediately.  ...or go to work for Carly Fiorina.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I honestly think Fiorina's ad was better.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Undecided curiously high
Honestly, Barnes was swept out in a title wave in 2002. 8 years later, he starts out at 40%.  

This would make more sense if undecideds were lower.  If you don't like Barnes, wouldn't you pick one of the Repub choices when polled?  Seems odd undecided's are so high, if Barnes was in low 40's I'd expect the Repubs to be at high 40's at least.

I think this might be a good sign for Barnes.  I dont see how the Repubs could be favored to have much upside.  Barnes name rec gets him 40% but his name also got Perdue way more than 50% when they went toe-to-toe in 2002.  Wasn't Perdue fairly unknown before that election.

Very weird poll.


Not really.
Well, agree with you that this is good for Barnes, but say "not really" to the rest of your post.

I think there may be some sellers' remorse happening here, something I hope Barnes taps into.  For example, many teachers were angered over some changes he made.  Now, teachers are getting furloughed, pay raises for teachers getting advanced degrees have been eliminated, talks of raising college tuition by 77% has emerged.  

The expectations that he was going to win by double digits aside, Barnes only lost by five points.  He didn't get blown out.  By comparison, Cleland lost by seven in the Senatorial race that year.

Sonny Perdue was not an unknown.  He had served in the state senate for a decade.  Georgia's state senate, at least now, has a pretty big turnover rate.  So, ten years is a lot.  He was the Democratic leader in the Senate for a few of those years, as well as President pro tempore.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


[ Parent ]

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