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Texas Primaries Prediction Thread

by: Crisitunity

Tue Mar 02, 2010 at 6:27 PM EST


While we're sitting around waiting for the main event to start, let's hear your predictions on tonight's primaries in the Lone Star State. Can one-time sure-thing Kay Bailey Hutchison somehow pull off the upset and beat Rick Perry? OK, OK, you can stop the laughing now... can KBH somehow keep Rick Perry from clearing 50% and avoiding a runoff? Will enough teabaggers show up at the polls for an impressive showing for Debra Medina (and for primary challenges to Ralph Hall and Pete Sessions), or are their 15 minutes of fame/2 minutes of hate coming to a close? Will the long-anticipated matchup of Ciro Rodriguez and Quico Canseco finally come to pass, or will Canseco's run of primary bad luck continue? And can Bill White clear 50% himself, or will hair care guru Farouk Shami force him into a resource-draining runoff? To prep yourself for answering all these questions, check out DavidNYC's preview from last night.

Polls close at 7 pm CT in most parts of the state and will start reporting then, although El Paso (on Mountain Time) closes an hour later. And in the meantime, don't forget there are state House special elections on tap in Virginia and Connecticut.

Crisitunity :: Texas Primaries Prediction Thread
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My guesses (knowing almost nothing about Texas politics)
Perry 49
Hutchison 30
Medina 21

White 65

TX-23 goes to a runoff.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08


Yee-haw
I have no idea, but it's always fun to guess....

Perry 55%
Hutchinson 35%
Medina 10%

White takes it in walk 70%+

And the Republican base opts for the CIA agent instead of known Latino Canseco. Just cuz they're crazy like that.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


Gotcha
Perry 50.7% (sucks to be us dems)
Hutch 32.6%
Tinfoil Hat 16.7%

No incumbent US congresmen loose.

State Rep Hopson (-D- NO R!) gets goes to a runoff, at least 2 other incumbent statehouse members lose or go into losing runoffs (Not including HD 100 where Terri Hodge (D) resigned and is headin' to jail).

White gets well over 55%, comes close to 60%.  I'll say 58.6% (man, I'm optimistic).

And I will predict people are lazy and I find myself elected as a delegate to the county convention easily enough due to lack of competition. :P

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


I'm going to add one more
I will not put down any numbers, but I PREDICT KINKY FRIENDMAN WILL BE THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER.

It's bold and not who I voted for, but low information voters do like their name ID, positive or negative.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
We dislike him so much here
that we don't even bother to spell his name correctly.

[ Parent ]
I know where you live. . . . Roughly
I know where your parents live.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Predictions
Gov-R
Perry 47%
Hutchinson 36%
Medina 16%

Gov-D
White 65%
Shami 17%
all others -- 18%

Board of Education
-Creationists will secure a majority on the board.  And my opinion of Texas will fall even further

TX-04
-- Hall will get 45% or so, and be forced into a runoff

TX-14
-- Paul 60%

TX-18
Jackson stays above 50%... but not higher  than 60%


Mine
Perry 48 KBH 34 Medina 18
White 64 ShamWOW 36

LCT 45 Earle 40 Katz 15

Gilbert 55 Kinky 45

You can also enter the more detailed BOR contest and win... something.

http://spreadsheets.google.com...


I think Perry does much better than the polls predict
Perry- 57%
KBH-35%
Medina- 8%

Basically predicting a Medina meltdown helping Perry.  

White- 75%
Shami- 25%

Further prediction: the crazies get their majority on the school board.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



I lived in El Paso for 2 years
But El Paso is so isolated from the rest of Texas, I don't know if it counts.  It is more like southern New Mexico's major city.
Anyhoo
Perry 56%
Hutchinson 37%
Medina 7%

White wins in a walk, say 77%
Rodriguez gets by with 59% and avoids a runoff.  

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic


So bad at these
Perry 48%
Hutchison 42%
Medina 20%

White 55%
Shami 20%

Congress critters all win re-election.
In my district (23rd), based on signage I'd say Lowry, followed by Hurd, then Canseco.

Lite Gov
Chavez-Thompson 45%
Earle 40%
Katz 15%

Ag Comm
Gilbert 60
Friedman 40

Land
Uribe 60
Burton 40

SBOE
I think the vehement creationists win 2 (Districts 5 & 9) out of 3 (District 10).


It might be that
That you're using Fox News math with the governor's race there.  :)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
My Predictions
Tx Gov Republicans

Perry 51.5%
Hutchinson 34.2%
Medina 13.8%

Tx Gov Democrats
Bill White 67.8%
Other 32.2%

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


53-32-15
White 70-30.

KBH really blew it by not following her
original inclinations. She should have: 1) resigned last summer from the Senate, 2) moved back to TX, 3) literally moved out of DC (selling her house), and 4) campaigned 24/7 in TX for the Gov job and against Perry.

predictions:
Perry 51
KBH 39
other 10

White 60
Shami 25
others 15


Also, does anyone really think now that KBH
will resign from the Senate after she loses this?
She's pushed back her alleged resignation time frame many times. She might even go for reelection in '12, she's still only in her 60's.

[ Parent ]
Run-Off Predicted
Rick Perry 46%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson 30%
Debra Medina 24%

I think a lot of the far right wing conservative vote may be there for Medina knowing that even if she loses they can still vote for their number two choice in a run-off.  


Perry misses an outright victory, but not by much...
Perry - 48%
Hutchison - 36%
Medina - 16%

Hutchison will be pressured to bow out with these numbers. I have no clue if she will, but I tend to doubt that she will.  

White 62% versus the field.

If White doesn't win at least 60% today, he has no chance in November. None.  


Not too bright in Virginia
Kerry D. Bolognese 544 55.90% Precincts Reporting: R
   1 of 15 (6.666%)

Eileen Filler-Corn 428 43.98% D

Write In 1 0.10%

Only one precinct is in so there is still a great chance for Filler-Corn.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


Those were absentees
Republicans woke up on the absentee front after getting a drubbing in the Marsden win.

Three actual precincts are in, and Filler-Corn is slightly outperforming Marsden's 2009 performance. I think she's going to win.


[ Parent ]
Correction
It looks like Bolognese is holding down the same margins he got in 2009 in the Springfield precincts, but Filler-Corn is doing better in the Burke area.

[ Parent ]
My prediction
Perry- 52%
KBH- 40%
Medina- 8%

Perry deserves credit for recognizing the potential of the tea party movement before almost any other politician.  


Didn't
John Kaish once say that he was into tea parties before it was cool?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
My Guess
Perry - 52
KBH - 38
Medina 10

It's a Perry/KBH Runoff (but just barely)
Perry 45%
KBH 30%
Medina 25%

My prediction
Perry-53%
KBH-38%
Right wing loon- 9%

White-66%
Left wing loon-30%
Other- 4%

Also I think Kinky will pull it off, although I don't think he's qualified.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  



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