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AL-02: Bright's Big Lead

by: James L.

Sun Feb 28, 2010 at 2:25 PM EST


Anzalone-Liszt for Bobby Bright (2/8-11, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D-inc): 54
Martha Roby (R): 30

Bobby Bright (D-inc): 55
Stephanie Bell (R): 29

Bobby Bright (D-inc): 58
Rick Barber (R): 26
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Very, very good numbers for Bobby Bright -- especially when you consider that Bright sits at the top of SSP's House Vulnerability Index for Democratic-held seats. Bright hasn't made it easy for Republicans, toeing a very conservative line on almost every major vote and touting that style in his outreach. He enjoys a solid 68-25 favorability rating and a 67% job approval rating.

On paper, Bright should be one of the easiest Dems to knock off this year, but so far, it seems that he's beating the odds.

UPDATE: Here's something I glazed over the first time around -- and something that the "But it's an internal poll!" crowd may want to consider. Straight from the mouth of Republican Stephanie Bell:

Bell, who has served on the school board since 1995, said the numbers are similar to other polls she has heard about, but have not been released. She also said she respected polling from Anzalone-Liszt.

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AL-02: Bright's Big Lead | 83 comments
My
jaw just dropped from seeing these numbers. Not only is he leading but hes even in the mid to high 50s against his opponents. Looks like both Bright and Perriello actually have a good chance of holding their seats. Now what I would like to see is Minnick being polled.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
Not mine
He votes his district very well. Not to mention she isn't a great fundraiser. More evidence Blue Dogs are not neccesarily the prime targets for defeat.
[ Parent ]
OK
somewhere JSmith's head just exploded.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
The
same can be said of Anka.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
LOL
I'm sure there is some sort of "rationalizaton" that the trolls could create.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
lol


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
It's a shame...
JSmith got banned before this poll was released, then he have a serious meltdown on here lol. Then after that he would go into a rant on how we should of let the banks fail. TARP would have nothing to do with this poll, but he mention it lol.

22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
[ Parent ]
You are right
n/t

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
This is just amazing!!
We might be able to pull this one off after all

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  
How many incumbents are actually behind?
Maybe or seven or eight? This is second presumed dead Dem not dead at all after Perriello. Coupled with the PPP for Larry Kissell it shows quite a mixed bag.
I had Bright
as "only" the 16th most vulnerable Dem, but I still had him down as a narrow loss.  This along with the poll showing Kissell up big suggests that the South is not as fertile as thought.  Wonder if Childers is looking good too.  This also makes me feel better about TN-08, AR-01, and AR-02, which I have predicted all along we will win.  Starting to think Republican gains will be primarily in the economically ravaged Rust Belt.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
I think is a good new

Republicans are working weak in this district (and they are working worse in others).

Every new about congressional elections make me think they are not signs for think democrats can lose more than 15 house seats.

There is a large disparity
With the generic ballot. Seat by seat things don't look too bad at all. But if history is any guide the GOP are in for a huge year. But maybe polling has just got so good the trends of the past may hold less weight.
[ Parent ]
We don't really have enough data
to judge what the seat-by-seat picture looks like. There are way too many competitive districts with no publicly-released polling to jump to that conclusion.
[ Parent ]
Fair enough
But going on the data we do have it isn't as bad as some are suggesting.
[ Parent ]
I will write a diary with some data what I take

I think an important key is the republican side. If republican challengers are not strong, republicans have so bad data in the polls.
[ Parent ]
Question - how many house elections will be based on national issues
And how many house elections will be based more on local factors?

If Rs can nationalize the House elections, they will gain more. If Ds can keep things local, incumbency will hold sway.

[ Parent ]
The economy
Has to be a locally-felt issue to matter.

And otherwise, what national issues are winners for the Republicans? Not much I can think of; maybe you will enumerate some I'm missing, at the moment. But some of their manufactured issues ("death panels," "socialism," and the like) do play locally in some districts.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
The "national issue" doesn't have to be fact-based
As you're suggesting, some of the "manufactured" issues can hold sway.

However, one reason I hold out hope is that the Rs, at least so far, have nothing like Newt's Contract with (or was it on) America. That contract nationalized more races in '94. It was a positive plan of action for Rs. All they have now is that they're the party of "no".

But that can change. Will Eric Cantor (or Bobby Jindal) come up with something like "The Big Red Plan"? If they do, then we may lose the House.

Or alternatively, can we destroy their manufactured issues? (even if it's difficult to burn through the Fox noise).  

[ Parent ]
Did you say "The Big Red Plan"?
Wouldn't that...not go over well, because it'd make them...reds?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Reminds me of that bumper sticker
"Remember when all the Red states were in the USSR?"

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
good to know that people here understand the irony
But I think my point is still cogent, if they can come up with something other than "no,"

this could be a '94 type election all over again.

Jindal and Cantor are their two leading candidates to come up with something other than 'no'.  

[ Parent ]
It actually makes sense
If you do a google news search of him he has amazingly positive press.

http://news.google.com/news?hl...

I will admit I had originally written him off, but obviously I was very wrong. I mean a 67% job approval that has to be one of the best in Washington.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

I've never heard of Anzalone-Liszt
Keep in mind it's an internal poll, folks.
I guess you weren't paying attention last cycle
They're pretty well-known and have a decent record under their belt.
[ Parent ]
Really?
One of the best Dem pollsters. They were super accurate in 2008. Sure, you can maybe allow a bit for it being an internal but the usual warning sign is 49-40 or so. He is well above 50 here.
[ Parent ]
Anzalone-Liszt
Is very well respected, they were very accurate in 2008.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
From what I remember
They were spot on in the special elections building up to 2008, I don't remember any of their 2008 election polls though.  Granted, it's a D-Polling firm, so they'd only release Dem polls showing Dems ahead and Dems cleaned house in the competitive special elections preceding 2008.  
[ Parent ]
They're a private polling firm whose name
was put on the map by their stellar polling of the MS-01 special a few years back.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
My caution...
Is not with the poll results (which I believe), but the same reason I don't think Republicans should get too giddy about the Delaware Senate polling results: it's early, and this is a difficult district for a Dem to hold. Once the campaigns start in earnest, I will bet you the polls tighten considerably (which is not to say Bright won't win. Honestly, other than voting for Pelosi for speaker, I can't think of a single important vote he's done that's favored the Dems, so why wouldn't they reelect him?).  
I don't think that
we will take this race for granted. I thought we didn't have a chance in this district; in fact I had it as leans R. Even now I am only cautiously optimistic about it. Still it's nice to see some good news for a change.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
2 things
1. I would like to see another poll to confirm these numbers.

2.  If this is true, it would be great it he voted for the HCR bill.  Sure he'll lose some approval points, but his worst margin here is a 24 point lead.  spare a few points for HCR bobby.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

Pelosi
will find the votes. There are several retiring dems that voted against the bill that will now be able to vote in favor of it, so I doubt Bright will be needed. I fully trust this poll and would rather see some numbers for Minnick or some new Indiana Senate numbers.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Betcha
Ras polls it within a week and show Bright down.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Ras
just polls at large districts.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
fortunately

[ Parent ]
Fortunately indeed
Although, maybe they'd find less D incumbents in danger then we all think.  House races generally dont move in as great of a percentage as Senate races do, clean sweeps occur in Senate elections for a party while House races, I doubt there has ever been anything close to a clean sweep of House races.  (I have no desire to go through every house election to check right now, that would take awhile.)

This kind of says maybe incumbents like Spratt, Boucher Skelton will be fine.  And even new comers like Childers, Kissel, Marshall should be do okay.  But every race is different, and some of them vote for Dem stuff.  

[ Parent ]
Boucher made a pretty stupid mistake
By voting for cap and trade, especially in a coal-heavy area like that.  That was one bill that I think Pelosi made a collassal mistake on.  It had no chance whatsoever of passing the Senate and drained needed energy from healthcare.  
[ Parent ]
Mmmmhmmm.

[ Parent ]
He is doing well in that district
precisely BECAUSE he votes against the Democratic Leadership's agenda. If he started voting for it, he would lose the seat.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I have mentioned before, I think, that I was thinking Bright was stronger than most people seemed to believe
But, yeah, these numbers are pretty amazing. They're also almost certain to drop when the campaign is in full swing (though I'll bet the NRCC has to pour in money to help out Roby), but still, wow.

Now we just need a poll on ID-01!

And also MS-01!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

Wonder what Parker Griffith's internal polling looked like
If Bright is above 50%, Griffith couldn't have been doing that poorly.  
Lets just hope
Griffith gets knocked out in the primary. Oh that would be soooo great!

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
No kidding!
That would be great -- come 2011 Bobby Bright (and other conservative Dems like Walt Minnick) are still in Congress, and Griffith is out of a job!
[ Parent ]
Revenge is sweet!!!


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I disagree
Griffith and Bright took two very different views at their time in DC.

Griffith was bash the democrats, tear Obama down, and vote for none of the agenda. Make it impossible to tie him to anything the national, liberal do. At the same time, this mad the local dems upset and none of them wanted to vote for him. (Similar to me from 2007-2008, Nick Lampson was my rep and his lack of doing anything cohesive to the party made me not want to life a finger to help his re-election, and yeah, Olson sucks worse)  Griffith was making nice with independents and ticking off his allies while to those who want someone who "stands up to Washington" he looked like he was standing up to anything at random.

Bright on the other hand has been, vote for none of the agenda, stay quiet on national issues, and when pressed say "the leadership will do what it wants, and I'll do what the people of Alabama need." A phrase that gives him the wiggle room to "make the hard choices" and vote for the dem agenda once in a while. Add to that he seems to do very well with knowing his district and getting to know his voters with regular contact back home (Lampson's missing element). The news feed pointed out earlier with the constant good press is a great example of what he's doing right. Bright looks like he's standing up for Alabama, winning independents, and not giving his political opponents anything.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I can't say I find this credible
Southern Dems are dropping like flies, yet freshman Bright is getting away scot-free? Is it because he has yet to vote with the Democrats on a single piece of substantive legislation?
yes
That and superior name recognition.  I find this extremely credible and have always thought bright would do better than expected.  He's more conservative than 12 republicans.Also who says southern dems are dropping like flies.  The only ones that look like easy takeovers are tn-08 and maybe la-03.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
ugh
Tn-06.  We will win tn-08.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
If Roby or the NRCC
Has a better poll, then let them publish it.
[ Parent ]
And if they have such a poll
then we'll be seeing it tomorrow or Tuesday.  This is a doozy of a poll and one Id want to counter immediately.
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure if they have one
From page three of the Montgo Advertiser article (linked in the main post):

Bell, who has served on the school board since 1995, said the numbers are similar to other polls she has heard about, but have not been released. She also said she respected polling from Anzalone-Liszt.

[ Parent ]
This is why I could see Joseph Cao holding his seat
Perhaps pandering to the opposition works this year.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Cao Was For Health Care Before He Was Against It...
He's just a one hit wonder folks. Enjoy your time in DC Joe
[ Parent ]
Agreed
No way Cao wins, no way no how.
[ Parent ]
In anything close to a normal turnout
Cao would need to win around 30% of the black vote and get every white vote to win.  And this a district even Charlie Melancon will be winning by 40+ points over David Vitter even as he loses statewide by 20 points.  Cao will come nowhere close to bucking that tide.  
[ Parent ]
Just look at Bright's congressional website
There are so many pictures and stories of him interacting with his constituents. I think people really appreciate it when they feel like their congressman is accessible and is trying to reach out to them, and this is something that transcends ideology. A lot of NC Democrats who despised Jesse Helms' voting record still voted for him anyway because of his good constituent service. This may be why part of why Bright is doing so well.

Similarly, remember how Perriello had 17 town halls on healthcare over the course of one month over the summer? He may be experiencing the same effect as reflected in the fact that he is polling even despite his votes for nearly all of the Democratic bills. People like to feel like they can access their representatives and that they aren't being taken for granted.

But
how does he poll when you trim the electorate to not include anybody under 35? questions questions. Ha.
Excellent news (and LOL at head exploding upthread)
Work hard, vote as left as your district can possibly tolerate, and then make Team Red waste millions of dollars trying to win back a district they should easily win.
Team Blue
And Team Blue spending millions of dollars trying to defend a Congressman who doesn't support any part of their agenda.
[ Parent ]
Um, no
First of all, he's got a jillion point lead.

But more important is the fact Republicans spent more than a million dollars more last cycle than Bright did, and they lost.  Them spending $2+ on this district every two years (plus more for losing primary candidates) is as pure a win in politics as you can get.

[ Parent ]
Wow!
He's in the mid-to-high 50s and his opponents are in the mid-to-low 30s!  Definitely a pleasant surprise.
Same here, not surprised at this result...
though the real campaign has yet to begin, I always felt Bright was stronger than many freshmen Dems from swing or GOP leaning districts and is pretty much on his way to being the Gene Taylor of AL (though less a populist rather than a straight down conservative Dem).

I think there are really three categories of Southern white democratic members of Congress:

The George Mahon Pros : Bright, Taylor, Marhsall, Lincoln, Chandler and Melancon (before he retired), and to some extent Boyd, Edwards, Etheridge and McIntyre: these are folks who have not drawn top challengers in part b/c they truly are not liberals, have very good constituent service and even though they are not ideologically in sync with the average Democrat (except maybe Edwards to some extent), they absolutley despise the GOP even more and will do anything to put the fear of God into anyone who runs against them.

The Jim Turner and Butler Derrick wobblies: Perriello, Childers, Nye and Barrow and for other reasons Boucher, Tanner, Gordon, Snyder, Spratt:

The first batch of wobblies are, in part due to their newness to Congress, trying to play it safe (but Bright was a newbie too), but are missing the forest for the trees. Maybe they are somewhat liberal at heart (I doubt Childers is) or confuse cherry picking votes with establishing an image of independence, but I think what they have so far failed to do since coming to Congress was to clearly stake out their image as sufficiently indepedent of the leadership AND affirmatively and regularly make that case loud and clear to voters back home. I think by not doing that they allowed the GOP to tell their story and unfortunately may not hold on come Nov...I will say of this batch, Barrow's is the least Republican leaning but his problem is that he is not a very bright political strategist: he fails to maximise the power of the sizeable black voters in his district but tries to please the folks who won't vote for him or his party.

As per the second batch, these are folks I think have been in DC so long they may have forgotten who their voters were (particularly Bart Gordon, who skated by with no name challenges in a district that turned crimson red fast....even Clinton lost it twice, and then when a true challenger came he bailed like a coward!). While they try to be middle of the roaders, I don't think they know when to anticipate dicey votes or even know when to be populist or conservative when it matters and unfortunately, this gives their GOP opponents unearned ammo. I still think and hope Boucher and Spratt win their races, but I honestly won't be surprised if they lost (it could also be their constituents are just too susceptible to right-wing BS there's no point educating them).

The Dave McCurdy Asshats: Griffith (when he was a Dem), Boren....the heading says it all. They care about no one but themselves and are willing to scew over their own constituents by voting against any piece of good legislation just because it was initiated by the Democratic party. They truly are asshats and not worth the salt they carry.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

Can you really group Perriello with those other guys?
n/t

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I think so.....
and don't get me wrong, I like Periello and I know folks who worked hard on his victorious campaign even though I honestly thought that Goode was unbeatable.

The thing is that VA-5 is really not that deep red a district (VA-9 is more so) and in fact was until recently the best predictor of how VA voted as a whole. Periello has sat on an overwhelming money advantage since last summer and while he's done a lot of constituent visits, even in the face of strong opposition, his message seems all too often process-y and less straight talk populist-y. His district is just about the poorest and least educated in the state and he can't be talking to them like he's talking to his UVA law class.

Goode was certified crazy but he knew how to talk like a real local South-sider so much so even black voters voted regularly for him (even though he barely did anything to help them). Periello is a superb congressman, but he's not representing the sharpest tools in the shed, so to speak.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

[ Parent ]
Great news!
Especially after watching the US-Canada hockey finals...

22, male, VA-10
That was awesome
What a thrilling result. :)
[ Parent ]
I think I just spit out my gatorade
all over the keyboard.  These numbers can't possibly be real.  Bright up by over 20 points on all challengers in an R+16 district?!  

Words cannot even begin to describe how stunned I am to see this.  Unbelievable.  I'm going to need to see some independent polling on this race because prior to seeing this I thought this was a no-doubter for the Republicans.

Here's the big question.  If Team Red can't win this seat, then what seats can they win?  You'd think this (aside from TN-6, LA-3, and a few others) would be the first to go in a bad election cycle.  Along with the polls so far on people like Kissell and Perriello, things aren't looking too bad for congressional democrats right now, at least not as bad as everybody seems to think.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Anzalone-Liszt
Is a well respected polling firm. If I remember correctly they were highly accurate in 2008.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
"...what seats can they win?"
Sad to say but members voting more the way we want. Bright is polling this well precisely because he votes with the Republicans so often. Still, I think on the whole we are likely to see a real scattershot of results without much discernible pattern.
[ Parent ]
Keep in mind that Bright isn't much of a "Generic Dem"
He served as mayor of Montgomery for 10 years, so he's pretty popular down there. I'd like to see how Childers is polling, or any of Melancon's potential replacements are doing.

I still think that Democrats are going to be getting killed in the South over the next few years. We might not see the full extent of this on the national level yet (with people like Bright and Gene Taylor who are very popular on a personal level), but I would be very surprised if we don't suffer heavy losses in state legislatures, for instance.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

I
don't think we have any candidates in Melancons district.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
ravi sangisetty in LA-03
Melancon's district

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Confession Time
I will readily admit that I totally, unequivocally, underestimated Bobby Bright's appeal in District 2.  I thought any poll would have Bright no more than a few points ahead.  I had Bright as the 8th most vulnerable Democrat in this cycle.  Based on this information, I think I totally screwed this one up.  I'd like some additional polling on this race, but just based on this one poll I can tell that Bright has the touch to become entrenched for many years.

I know many SSP posters do not care for Bright, but I can't imagine a better Democrat than Bright for this district without losing the next election.  I'll take Bright.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Exactly
On all the major votes progressives care about, he's been a solid "no" vote, more or less.  At the same time though, he has been pretty much perfect on what I like to call "common decency" bills, such as this one:

http://www.govtrack.us/congres...

Sadly, I think the David Vitters, Tom Coburns and Tom Tancredos of the world would even try to find fault with crap like this.  

[ Parent ]
I disagree
It's very easy to offer sympathy for the victims of shootings, regardless of party.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Don"t be so sure
After all, Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, and 11 others (estimate) voted against federal funding for Katrina victims.  
[ Parent ]
That's despicable
but it's about money. A resolution of sympathy costs nothing.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Well Ill be damned
If the DCCC never has to spend a cent on Bright, I'll never say a bad word about him ever again.
Second that.
At least he'll keep some GOPer busy.
[ Parent ]
Barber's comments
I love how he doesn't provide any specifics, of course.

Barber, who has been active in the Tea Party movement and advocates a fair tax, said he entered the race just a few weeks ago, has never held public office and people consider him an unknown.

Barber, a Marine Corps veteran, said he is telling people the Blue Dog Democrat label is not what it is advertised to be and that Bright does not have the conservative voting record that the district deserves. Bright is a member of the Blue Dog Coalition of conservative Democrats.

Barber said Bright is voting against bills his constituents do not want on the House floor, but the people in the district want "leadership out there fighting the bills."

Um, so point to me where he doesn't have a conservative voting record.  Or is it that because he voted for Pelosi for Speaker, that automatically brands him as not conservative?

It's a contradiction
In the last paragraph, Barber implies that Bright does have a sufficiently conservative voting record, but doesn't fight the bills beyond the use of his voting card.
[ Parent ]
Another Link
Here's a link to the Memo (courtesy of Doc's Political Parlor)

http://www.politicalparlor.net...

I've said it before, Bright's got a coalition that's difficult to beat. He's got roots in the rural Wiregrass portion, but had a popular stint as Mayor of Montgomery. It's basically the best of both worlds.

These numbers are amazing.

Other than Gene Taylor and Jim Marshall, Bobby Bright is my favorite Congressman. It's funny to me, because if I moved an hour or so west, Bright would be my Congressman, but if I move an hour or so east, Marshall would be my Congressman (again).

Bright needs to be looked at as an example of the type of Democrat we need if we want to compete in some of these Georgia seats. Obviously the dynamics would be different, but there are still a ton of Conservative Democrats out there

AL-02: Bright's Big Lead | 83 comments

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