I voted "No"

I hope I'm wrong, but I think a state that's capable of electing a crazy secessionist who is leading a pretty hard-right U.S. Senator who's merely sane and is getting primaried by someone even further to the right will not elect a Democrat statewide so soon, regardless of how much he spends.

But knowing that politics often has as much to do with the way particular candidates' personalities strike the voters as anything else, I don't think it's completely impossible that White could catch fire.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Feb 26, 2010 at 03:54:33 AM UTC

What's the difference

between choices 'No' and 'Not in a cycle this favorable for the GOP'?
Sheesh, what a flawed pole...

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by: homerun @ Fri Feb 26, 2010 at 03:59:00 AM UTC

I thought it was obvious

Could Alan Keyes have won the Presidency?  No
Could John McCain have won the Presidency?  Not in a cycle which was so favorable to the Democrats

It's crystal clear really

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by: TXMichael @ Fri Feb 26, 2010 at 11:18:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

YES...although it'll be a close one

I would currently project...

Democrat - 35%
Republican - 35%
Independent - 30%

Perry - 5/85/45 = 46%
White - 95/15/55 - 54%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Fri Feb 26, 2010 at 04:14:37 AM UTC

you think White will do that well with dems?

I don't know too much about texas politics, but I would guess there are a fair number of DINOs in the rural areas, especially East Texas.

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by: fatcathobbes @ Fri Feb 26, 2010 at 06:58:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

54-45 is WAY too optimistic

I think the best case scenario for White is at most a 51% vicotry. I'm worried that Democrats are not started defining Perry in as negative a light as possible b/c I assure you he is going to go hard against White early and often and if he wins the primary outright on Tuesday, he's anti-White ads will be out before the end of the week.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

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by: Shinigami @ Fri Feb 26, 2010 at 16:14:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exit polls from 2008

Democrats (33% of electorate): Obama 89%, McCain 10%
Republicans (34% of electorate): McCain 93%, Obama 6%
Independents (33% of electorate): McCain 62%, Obama 36%

The 10% that McCain got is a pretty fair reflection of the number of DINOs still around in rural Texas.  That's a thing of the past; today, those voters just call themselves Republicans or Independents.  (Even among white Democrats, Obama got 78% of the vote.)

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

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by: TDDVandy @ Fri Feb 26, 2010 at 18:22:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perry should be more concerned

About losing moderate Republicans. In both the Kos and PPP polls he has more trouble holding his base than White does.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Feb 26, 2010 at 18:30:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DINOs

And one would think that the former mayor of Houston could do a bit better with white Texas DINOs that some librul, elitist black guy from Chicago.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Fri Feb 26, 2010 at 18:56:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not to mention the vote ceiling

Some of the counties in west and east Texas may be close to being maxed out on their support for GOP candidates.  I don't know if there is an official phrase for it but I call it the "vote ceiling" once 90%/10% GOP/Dem is reached it seems unlikely that more GOP votes can be pulled from it.  Yeah a few counties hit >90% GOP, but the difficulty to make that happen.  

A few things White needs to do to win

1.  At minimum keep Dallas County near the 2008 margin Obama had and if possible improve on it.  57/42 was the '08 margin.
2.  Shift Harris County, his home, in his favor from the thin 50.5/49.5 to a comfortable 10 point margin.
3.  Turn out in Travis
4.  Improvement in Tarrant County, which is the County I am most excited to watch as the election goes it since it has been close to a bellwether for the state the past few Presidential cycles.  

I don't know how much improvement the Democrats can do in West and East Texas.  Especially given the national mood and the GOP working so hard to tie everything to the "super secret liberal agenda which is bad stuff"

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by: TXMichael @ Fri Feb 26, 2010 at 21:54:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think a few things would need to happen

in addition to what you name. First, a massive citizenship drive, especially in Houston and the valley (with citizenship actually being available), and second a shift in the Dallas and Houston suburbs from 70/20R to 50/50, or better.  

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by: andgarden @ Sat Feb 27, 2010 at 00:10:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ohh yeah

No doubt the Dems are going to have to go in entirely in each county to get a Bill White win.  Bexar County too, El Paso, etc, it's gonna be difficult.

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by: TXMichael @ Sat Feb 27, 2010 at 01:09:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's gonna be difficult.

That said... "Fired Up! Ready to Go!"

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by: TXMichael @ Sat Feb 27, 2010 at 03:05:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Additionally,

Consider all the other counties in the Houston media market who are very familiar with Bill White and what he's done. (Montgomery, Waller, Galveston, etc).  I'm not saying White needs to, or will win any of these counties, but by keeping Perry to about 55-ish in those areas, it gives White some more wiggle room and allows him to focus on other areas of the state more.  Then again, I may be a little too optimistic.

Additionally, don't count out some of the counties in Deep East Texas which on the local level still retains some Democratic tradition.  There's also bound to be at least one dinky little county in the Panhandle/West Texas that'll flip as well for the same reason (not that it'll be a big deal).  

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by: Xochi @ Sat Feb 27, 2010 at 17:09:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is what I have heard before

I've heard a lot about how well known Bill White is in the greater Houston area.  So obviously if he can focus on other areas like the DFW suburbs in Denton and Collin County that would be great!  

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by: TXMichael @ Sat Feb 27, 2010 at 19:02:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good points here.

Montgomery County gave Obama just 23% of the vote, so I doubt 45% is doable, though holding Perry to, say, 65-35 there would help quite a bit.  The more appealing target is Fort Bend County, also in the Houston area and a place where Obama got 48.5% of the vote.  If Bill White is going to win statewide, he absolutely NEEDS to win Fort Bend.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

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by: TDDVandy @ Sat Feb 27, 2010 at 20:14:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Galveston is the obvious flipper

Traditional democratic county, Dems hold nearly every count wide office, took a huge dive for Obama. They're in the Houston media market, they know White, This could be an easy turn around from 40% to 55%+

Fort Bend could also flip. A lot of 2008 was african american voters showing up.

Montgomery is not flipping, but it could get up to 35%-40%.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Sun Feb 28, 2010 at 01:21:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No way

If White wins, he's going to win it 51-49. There would have to be a huge black turnout for Dallas to go 57% for White. I think 54-55% is doable. I do think the older and outer suburbs hold the persuadable and independent voters who will tip this election. The Dems now at least have a good list of activists who can reach these voters in Collin, Denton, Williamson, Montgomery because of the senate/county conventions in 2008. White will have some problems in east texas due to his stance on guns as Mayor of Houston. White's name id in metro Houston will be a big boost in the ring of counties around Houston.

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by: phillytx @ Mon Mar 01, 2010 at 21:18:02 PM UTC