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IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Nice Leads for Giannoulias, Quinn

by: Crisitunity

Thu Feb 25, 2010 at 2:23 PM EST


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/22-24, likely voters, 1/26-28/2009 in parentheses):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 43 (38)
Mark Kirk (R): 36 (30)
Undecided: 19 (32)

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 47
Bill Brady (R): 32
Undecided: 20

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 46
Kirk Dillard (R): 35
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4%)

Here are surprisingly good numbers all around for the Democrats who prevailed in this month's primary election: incumbent Governor Pat Quinn, and state Treasurer and Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias. Giannoulias holds a 7-point lead over Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, while Quinn has is in the double digits against both his potential opponents. State Sen. Bill Brady has a lead of several hundred votes in the primary count, but it'll be at least a week before we know anything official -- and we should be glad about Brady, as the socially conservative, downstate Brady fares significantly worse than the moderate, suburban state Sen. Kirk Dillard.

Taking all the post-primary Senate polls together, you get a picture of a closer race (GQR gave Alexi a 4-point lead, Rasmussen gives Kirk a 6-point lead, and a Kirk internal puts him up by a not-too-plausible 12), but given that pundits were preparing the fork to stick in Giannoulias after he weathered pre-primary attacks on his relationship with his family's bank, he looks to be in decent shape. The only other post-primary poll of IL-Gov, from Victory Research, also gave Quinn leads (with a 9-point edge over Brady), so Quinn may also have survived the worst of it, in terms of his nasty primary with Dan Hynes. (Although current fighting over tax increases, as well as possible further deterioration in the local economy, could take its toll on him.)

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IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Nice Leads for Giannoulias, Quinn | 42 comments
44% D Sample
Seems a bit high.
On the contrary
The sample is 44/29/27 (D/R/I). The 2008 exit polls had it at 47/28/26.

That number is perfectly reasonable for Illinois.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Even though its Illinois
Are we to really believe there's been no shift in the political environment in the last two years?
[ Parent ]
47 to 44 isn't a shift?

[ Parent ]
It went from D+19 to D+15 (relative to the Republicans)
What should we expect, an even electorate?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Everyone calm down, I was just making an observation
At the very least, it explains why these numbers are better for Democrats than the other polls. I just expected to see more Indies, is all.
[ Parent ]
That's what I first though, too
That there should be more Indies, as that is the one group people are flocking to right now.

And also, I think that sample could be a little generous when it comes to what most would think for what Democratic turn-out will be.  But, I highly doubt Obama is going to let the usual voters who slip-off in mid-terms (lower income minorities) slip-off again without doing some major campaigning in his home town.

[ Parent ]
Moreover...
In Chicago, low-turnout elections favor the Dems. The Machine, weakened though it is, is still better than anything the Republicans have in the state.

So, given IL's demographics, and assuming a low turnout, this is probably a fair guess.

[ Parent ]
What's not encouraging
is the fact that Dems are getting plastered in the collar counties.

But it is important to hold on to these seats, so the toplines are pretty good news.  

PVI sounds right
It may be skewed up a bit in Illinois because of the obvious reasons, however that may be because Illinois did move to the left a bit in addition to the home-town vote for Obama.  Even though Ds outnumber Rs in Illionis the excitement factor needs to move in favor of the D so it can level out.
So Kos comes out w/ a poll
showing a rosier picture than Giannoulias' own internals. Colour me skeptical.  
It's funny how...
you guys beat Markos to the punch in revealing these poll results.  :-)

And yes, given the shift in the electorate, I think the 44% Dem sample may still be too high, especially when you look at other polls about voter intensity, where about 50% of Democrats are threatening to simply not show up to vote.

DKos is always hours, if not a day or two at times
behind on horse race politics.  This place is the best for it  :)
[ Parent ]
General polling, sure.
But when it comes to DailyKos-commissioned polling, I just find that funny, cuz Markos is supposed to get all the results first.  :-)
[ Parent ]
Well that is Research 2000 too
So they are contradicting themselves. Still, making the sample a bit more Republican and/or indie will not change the candidates out in front.
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily a contradiction.
The voter intensity was a national poll.  It may vary by quite a bit state by state.  Still, given that as a national baseline, how much better would the numbers be in a blue state like Illinois?

And yes, small changes to the subgroup numbers won't affect the toplines all that much, but I think it would narrow Alexi's lead a bit, and come closer to his own internals.

[ Parent ]
I have a hard time believing
Barely over 50% of Dems plan to vote nationwide yet in IL the drop-off from 2008 is just 3% of the total electorate with the GOP and indie share up a point apiece. Particularly as tietack shows below that is in fact very similar to the 1992-94 change in the state. I imagine with the usual Dem house effect the margin is actually closer though.
[ Parent ]
Where is it that there is a 50% drop-off
(and what's the GOP and Indie drop-off)? This is a base election so I'd expect the Indie drop-off to be quite severe as well.  
[ Parent ]
The tracking poll they do for Kos
Consistently says barely 50% of Dems actually plan to vote in November.
[ Parent ]
I think there's...
..a little bit of apples to oranges here. Simply put, a huge chunk of IL Dems COULD be planning to stay home, but Dems could still be the biggest chunk of the IL electorate- all it takes is a bunch of Indies and Rs to stay home, too.

And in IL, that's very possible. The rank-and-file Rs have never been happy with their party leadership, and Kirk and Brady, while probably the best of the lot by far, don't really inspire much. Indies could well be simply disgusted by the entire state political system. Wouldn't blame them.

OTOH, IL has a lot of flashpoint issues right now. IL Dems could just be more willing than most other Dems to still turn out.

[ Parent ]
Possibly
Anyway, I don't buy the 50% numbers at all. I think there was at least a Gallup poll that had it over 70. And even if true, once campaigns fully engage it will go up.
[ Parent ]
IL voters changed just a little between '92 and '94
Based on a somewhat apples to oranges comparison of CNN exit polls

'92 senate

D-R-I: 39-34-27

'94 gov

D-R-I: 36-36-28

Which seems to validate the R2K voter composition numbers.

Markos
will soon release Indiana numbers. He said they are competitive. Suck it Rasmussen  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Rasmussen has done a better job predicting results this cycle
than R2K.  
[ Parent ]
BS
Give me one example. Rasmussen has consistently showed worse numbers for democrats than any credible pollster. R2K is a non partisan pollster, and just because a liberal website sponsors the poll doesn't mean it is liberal results. I never trust Rasmussen, and I want you to tell me how you can trust them.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
What cycle?
There have been two major elections this year.  Ras hasn't been better in any sense, and is a near outlier when multiple polls exist in upcoming races.
[ Parent ]
Please clarify
We have no way of knowing who is better at predicting the 2010 cycle. Once the votes are in, we can look back and discuss the results. Until then, we can only speculate and theorize.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I think the reference is to the Virginia gov race
Research 2000 was off by I think 9 in that race (in favor of the Dem), whereas Rasmussen was closer.  
[ Parent ]
In R2K's defense
They got MA-Sen within the margin of error, whereas Rasmussen didn't weigh in (not counting their Coakley +2 result which was put out too far in advance of the election to be a fair reflection on Rasmussen).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Their final Jersey poll
Also had Christie winning when others had Corzine. They aren't bad pollsters. I think they have a Dem lean (I'm sure it isn't an intentional bias) but not a huge one.
[ Parent ]
I agree...
I think their bias comes from assuming a higher Dem turnout, just like Rasmussen's bias comes form assuming a higher Repub turnout. It's hard to say who is right at this stage.

Btw: I didn't mean my last comment to be a putdown of R2K. I think they're a good pollster. As was pointed out, they were on target on the Mass race and just a few points off on Christie's win.

[ Parent ]
That is what I don't understand
Them assuming higher Dem turnout (and not just in Illinois) when their own national poll shows such dire intensity. Very odd.
[ Parent ]
Scott, you have till Tuesday!
We need a poll showing Mark Kirk leading Giannoulias by 4-6 points, and Quinn within the margin of error with both his possible challengers to rebut any indication that things could be getting better for Democrats.  
Good news
I'm very happy with the Alexi G/Mark Kirk numbers.  I think Kirk will come just short at the end of this race.  Kirk may be perceived as a moderate, but the Democratic edge in this state will push Alexi G over the top.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
Looks to me like IL-Sen is Toss-up, IL-Gov is Lean Dem


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Don't let the R2K numbers fool you
Both of these races are tossups. Quinn barely won his own primary and both of the major Dem candidates have some baggage. The state is highly Democratic but given the cycle and the nature of the candidates, I think tossup is a more accurate rating.  
[ Parent ]
If Dillard
somehow gets the nomination then its a tossup. If Brady survives then it is lean D. I greatly fear Dillard, he is a faux moderate and people love moderates. As for Brady, I find it very difficult to see him winning statewide. He is VERY conservative; he even opposes abortion when the mother's life is at risk. Also who knows how long it will be until the republicans have a candidate? This is a bright spot for us. I admit we would have been better off with Hynes, but we still have the upper hand.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Dillard and Kirk At the Top of the Ticket...
...will lead directly to a dispirited Republican base. And since energy is their big advantage right now, i wouldn't be too comfortable nominating those two, were I the IL Republican Chairman.
[ Parent ]
"Barely Won His Primary"
That's going to be a hell of an argument coming from Brady or Dillard, whenever they figure out which one of them won THEIR primary...
[ Parent ]
Even if Brady and Dillard settle the matter amicably
You still have to deal with the fact that whoever indeed wins, wins with 20% of the vote. The only other person I can remember who won his primary with a comparable number was Bill Sali, who got 26% in 2006.  
[ Parent ]
yeah
I think the race would be toss-upish if not for the fact that Quinn gets a big head start. At this point it's Leans D if not Likely.

And baggage doesn't mean that much here in Illinois, remember blago won by double digits in 06 over a good opponent.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Agree
But the gubernatorial race is closer to leans than the senate race.
[ Parent ]
IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Nice Leads for Giannoulias, Quinn | 42 comments

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