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NM-Gov: Denish Leads Domenici (Jr.) by 5

by: James L.

Thu Feb 25, 2010 at 1:23 AM EST


Our first poll of the race from Public Policy Polling (2/18-20, registered voters):

Diane Denish (D): 45
Pete Domenici, Jr. (R): 40
Undecided: 15

Diane Denish (D): 44
Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 33
Undecided: 19

Diane Denish (D): 46
Susana Martinez (R): 32
Undecided: 21

Diane Denish (D): 46
Doug Turner (R): 32
Undecided: 22

Diane Denish (D): 48
Allen Weh (R): 30
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4%)

Pretty decent, though not overwhelming, numbers for Lt. Gov. Diane Denish here, particularly given outgoing Gov. Bill Richardson's disastrous 28-63 job approval. Domenici leads the Republican pack thanks to his superior name recognition (thanks, dad!), a fact corroborated by a recent poll conducted by a crew of forced laborers college students giving Domenici the inside track for the GOP nomination. But does Domenici, an "environmental" attorney who has never been elected to anything in his life, have the chops to turn a five point deficit into a win?

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James L. :: NM-Gov: Denish Leads Domenici (Jr.) by 5
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NM-Gov: Denish Leads Domenici (Jr.) by 5 | 16 comments
Answer
But does Domenici, an "environmental" attorney who has never been elected to anything in his life, have the chops to turn a five point deficit into a win?

No.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

"environmental" attorney?
That's just asking for the Tea Party to **** with him.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
By "environmental" attorney
it's a nice way of saying he protects the rights of corporations to pollute in New Mexico.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Ask Congresswomen Kryzan how that "environmental attorney" thing is working out for her...

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Not the good type of environmental attorney though


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
can he even get the nomination
in an anti-incumbent year when the son of the former speaker of the house can't get the nomination in his dad's old district?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
One
big difference though. Pete Domenici Sr. was actually fairly popular, while Dennis Hastert wasn't  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I'm not panicking quite yet.
Even though Denish should stomp just about everybody, Domenici Jr. still has some things to prove. I don't think he has the political skills to campaign in a state like ours. Denish has been doing this for years and has quite the support group around the state, not to mention the cash.

Another problem, is that some of the hard-core Allen Weh/Doug Turner voters may call it quits after Jr. gets the nod. He's not going to be clear enough in his conservative ideals to appease people who actually care about political issues and are not just in it cuz their dad is famous. Domenici Sr's endorsement didn't do shit for Heather Wilson and bringing those conservative voters.

Finally, Denish is from sourthern NM and that means she plays well in the most conservative part of the state. Jr. would have to win NM-2 and NM-1. He's going to have a tough time beating her because I suspect that NM-1, NM-3 and even NM-2 will break for her in the end. Same thing with Udall. NM statewide is a hard nut for Republicans to crack.

Majority minority
New Mexico, according to the Census Bureau, is a majority minority  state with only 41.7% of its population non-Hispanic whites vs. 44.9% Hispanic and 9.7% native Americans. NM Republicans have a recent, active history in suppressing and/or not counting native American votes and to a lesser degree Hispanic votes.  Given the anti-immigrant tenor, Domenici or any Republican will be running up hill.

Funny thing, a lot of the Hispanics have been in New Mexico longer than most of the Anglos.

Absolutely spot on.
Domenici Sr. got along because Hispanics could sympathize with his immigrant Italian roots and pseudo-moderate Republicanism. Now that the NM GOP's gone nativist, I don't think Domenici Jr. can pander to Hispanics/Native Americans and still hold on to the conservative vote.
[ Parent ]
So,
What has caused Bill Richardson's approval to crater?  I remember a time when his name was gold in that state.  If it's  something besides the whole "anti-everyone" mood, I'd really like some kind of insight.
There's a lot of things
One of the big things is what killed Richardson's shot at Commerce (plus the fact that there has been a shit-storm of corruption controversies which have plagued the Democratic party in New Mexico).

Denish had done well to maintain her popularity in spite of all this.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Terrible economy + corruption
New Mexico is a poor state, but their economy has absolutely nose-dived. Further, although he avoided indictment, he had been under investigation for steering state bond sale contracts to a major campaign donor. (There have been numerous corruption charges filed in the last 18 months; I think that's the one that most directly involved Richardson. New Mexico isn't Louisiana or New Jersey or Rhode Island, but it's clearly a welterweight contender in political corruption.)
[ Parent ]
Actually, compared to the rest of the country
New Mexico isn't doing all that bad (it helps when a huge chunk of our employment is thanks to the federal government).

It's nothing to write home about, but the unemployment rate in New Mexico is consistently below the unemployment rate for the rest of the country.

On the corruption stuff, yeah, definitely right, Richardson's numbers are almost completely caused by that fact alone.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Really?
I got the impression from reading Joe Monahan that things were a lot worse in NM. So, okay: just corruption.
[ Parent ]
Reading anything about the economy of New Mexico from a local perspective will do that
And we are a poor state, so where it's worse, it is really hurting the poor here, but we're doing much better than any number of states, mostly because the housing collapse that happened everywhere else was caused by a bubble in housing prices. We never really experienced the bubble, so we got no collapse of the housing market.

As of December of 2009, New Mexico had an unemployment rate of 8.7% (the same as Maine and Texas), which puts us at 19 of 51 (if you include DC).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
NM-Gov: Denish Leads Domenici (Jr.) by 5 | 16 comments

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