The 2010 mid-term elections, part 8: The 33 most vulnerable Democrat seats

Overview

I am predicting that the Democrats will lose 28 seats (net) in the 2010 mid-term elections.  I believe we will win 5 seats held by the Republicans, while losing 33 Democrat-held seats.

I have already listed what I consider the 22 most vulnerable Democratic seats in the 2010 mid-term elections.  Thanks to all who have provided feedback.

33 most vulnerable Democratic-held seats in the 2010 mid-term elections

The first 22 seats were listed in my previous thread.  Without further delay, here is my final list of the 33 most vulnerable House seats:

1.  LA-03

2.  TN-06

3.  AR-01

4.  AR-02

5.  TN-08

6.  ID-01

7.  MD-01

8.  VA-05

9.  KS-03

10. AL-02

11. MS-01

12. WA-03

13. NM-02

14. CO-04

15. IN-08

16. OH-01

17. OH-15

18. PA-07

19. NH-02

20. VA-02

21. IN-09

22. NY-29

23. NV-03

24. NY-23

25. PA-11

26. TX-17

27. NH-01

28. PA-12

29. FL-24

30. NY-24

31. MI-07

32. FL-22

33. AZ-05

I should point out that in my own handicapping of these races, several of the above races are listed as “Tossup-Tilt D”.  I believe we will win several of these races.  However, as most of you know, many of these races will be a nail-biter that could go either way.  If it wasn’t for the current political environment swinging against the Democrats, I would believe we would retain at least half of these seats.  It’s only February, so maybe the Democrats will pick up some momentum and retain many vulnerable seats.

As a side note, this exercise has been a lot of fun, and I really appreciate everyone providing insight on these races.  Feel free to comment on potential substitutes that can replace any of these seats that I have listed.  

19 thoughts on “The 2010 mid-term elections, part 8: The 33 most vulnerable Democrat seats”

  1. Don’t the Democrats at least have a bench in that district that they can draw from? I would rank TN-06 above it if only because the DCCC appears to have given up on holding that one.

  2. I expect us to lose most of those seats and pick up only a small handful of GOP-held seats, but even if the Republicans swept your whole list they wouldn’t take back the House. A small swing in our favor that saved, say, 10 of these seats would make a big difference.

    We desperately need prospects for Dems to improve in NH. Losing those two House seats and failing to pick up Gregg’s Senate seat would be a disaster.

  3. I think we’ll win:

    AR-01, AR-02, TN-08, WA-03, PA-12 – superior Dem benches in open seat races.

    FL-22 and FL-24 – strong incumbent fundraising.

    NY-23 – because Doug Hoffman will fuck things up for the Republicans one way or another.

    Only two not on your list that I think we’ll lose – IA-03 and FL-08.  A lot of folks seem to disagree with me on both of those.  I think there are major problems with the candidates – Boswell just being generally lackluster (kind of Kanjorski-like but not as bad) and Grayson not because of his partisanship but because he shows some signs of mental instability.  I hope I’m wrong.

  4. This really should be on the list.  Adler is tied at the hip with a corrupt machine and is one of the dozen most conservative Democrats in the House.  He needs a big vote from traditional Democrats as his district has a slight Republican lean (52-47 Obama and 50-49 Bush over Kerry).  He’s giving the base no reason to turn out.

    The only thing Adler has going for himself so far is a weal Republican field.

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