Is Chet Culver going to pull a Ritter?

I don't see how you can pull yourself back from such abysmal poll numbers. Culver consistently polls over twelve points behind Branstad. Maybe Bruce Braley would have better luck.

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by: InRepublican @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 07:31:00 AM UTC

I wish

Although I think Bruce Braley would get smashed against Branstad too. Iowans just love Terry too much, I think. I guess I will root for Branstad in the primary because I certainly do not want Bob Vander Plaats as governor!  

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by: IowaCityDem @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 10:36:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

we need Braley in the House

His House seat is safe, he's a rising star, and someday we'll need him to run for Senate when Harkin or Grassley retires.

Branstad has the edge now, but I still think his numbers will drop as Vander Plaats and Culver start making the case against him. His record as governor was mediocre, and he has flip-flopped on many issues.

The filing deadline in Iowa is in March. We don't have anyone waiting in the wings who would stand a much better chance against Branstad in my opinion.  

It's unfortunate that Vander Plaats doesn't have the resources to run an aggressive paid media campaign against Branstad, but Huckabee is in Iowa this week to raise money for him. Maybe out of state conservatives will start to take more of an interest in this race.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 12:08:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

One thing you have to admit though...

Culver is a weak candidate as well. Certainly Vilsack was stronger. Culver does not have a good reputation among most Iowa Dems I know.

Like you, I don't see much hope Branstad will lose to Vader Plaats (although it would be nice to see some polling). If that happens, the only hope is that Branstad pulls a Coakley and gets overconfident, and starts fumbling. Even then, I don't give Culver much of a shot. He just doesn't inspire enthusiasm, and conversely, Brandstad doesn't inspire the hatred you would need to get Dems to turnout (Vander Plaats likely would)

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by: markhanna @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 16:14:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I partly agree

Certainly BVP would help us turn out our voters, whereas Branstad isn't as frightening to people, because he was in the job before and was pretty ineffective.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 18:45:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

still annoyed by lack of GOP primary polling

We have still not seen a public poll of the Republican race for governor. Branstad's campaign release a few numbers from an internal poll that supposedly showed him leading Vander Plaats 63 percent to 18 percent, which many people found hard to believe. I expect Branstad to win the primary easily, but some people think Vander Plaats will have a superior organization with help from local party activists and churches.

The Iowa Republican blog and Concordia Group commissioned a poll of the governor's race last month but did not ask about the GOP primary, even though their July 2009 poll did ask about the GOP primary. I suspect that because they are supporting Branstad and didn't want to poll the race and possibly come up with numbers less favorable than Branstad's internals.

I can't understand why Selzer's poll for the DM Register did not ask about the GOP primary. Branstad has been a candidate for a while now.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 12:14:03 PM UTC

I think this was all expected

Let's not forget that Culver actually held onto the Iowa governorship in 2006 when Tom Vilsack opted to retire, whom had already been governor for 7 years before that. So the Democrats have been in charge of the governorship for 12 years. Maybe this is just that time for change.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 13:41:55 PM UTC

Well

To be fair, the Republicans controlled the governorship for 30 years (!) before that, so I am not sure that Iowans really care about having a back and forth change between party control like a state like VA, etc. But yeah, I agree with you that Culver probably is a victim of frustration with the economy, etc.  

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by: IowaCityDem @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 13:49:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

lousy economy

Culver's numbers were above 60 percent for a long time. I think it's primarily the economy/state budget situation. Iowa's fiscal problems are not nearly as bad as most states', but Republicans have effectively convinced people that we are running HUGE deficits and it's all because of "Democrat overspending."

I thought the governor's race would be a tough hold for us in 2005, but Culver turned out to be a better campaigner than I expected (I think the tough primary helped), Nussle wasn't a good campaigner, and of course 2006 was a Democratic wave.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 18:47:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Shame

Chet Culver has been pretty even handed in governing and hasn't really sold out to big business or organized labor.  What people expect?  Terry Branstad to raise sales tax, property tax and cut government services again.  I am tired of all these public sector workers complaining about Culver's budget wait till Terry gets in there again.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

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by: ModerateIADem @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 16:12:44 PM UTC

so true

Branstad supposedly already promised the road-builders that he will raise the gas tax, and I wouldn't be surprised to see sales tax increases as well.

Plus, Branstad will cut some of the program expansions that Culver got through, like pre-school for four-year-olds.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 18:48:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wow, IA-Sen

Roxanne Conlin pulled Grassly from a 28% lead to a 17%?!  That is pretty impressive against someone who has easily won almost every statewide election.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 17:39:25 PM UTC

that was my thought as well

I did not expect to see Grassley with less than a 20 percent lead at this point, certainly not in a Rasmussen poll.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 18:49:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wonder how much of Grassley being an asshole

Particularly on health care reform and the economy has played into this.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 18:57:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I suspect that's the biggest factor

in his slide over the past year. I lost count of the number of Dems and independents who have told me they used to think Grassley wasn't "that bad" before his double-dealing and false claims about the health care bill.

Honestly, I'm a little surprised he is still sliding during the winter, which has been so rough for Democrats. The Des Moines Register poll found Grassley at 54 percent approval, an all-time low and just three points above Harkin's approval (usually there is a much bigger spread between Grassley and Harkin).

I heard he was running positive ads in some Iowa markets in October or November and thought he would have been able to stop the bleeding by now.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 20:07:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think he correctly saw the biggest threat to him was from the right..

....and he adjusted accordingly.  The most consistent thing about Grassley he isn't all that consistent.  If you look at his ACU ratings they are just all over the map.  And he's the guy who voted against the first Gulf War but voted for the second.

In this environment he was popular enough to survive a move to the right.  But vulnerable to a primary challenge from the right.  Particularly after having had a few scuffles with the Christian right.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

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by: Taget @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 20:27:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Boy did he get his Iraq votes back to front!

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 20:47:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]