Rasmussen Reports (2/22, likely voters, 1/26 in parentheses):
Roxanne Conlin (D): 36 (31)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 53 (59)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 6 (5)Bob Krause (D): 33 (26)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 55 (59)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 8 (8)Tom Fiegen (D): 28 (25)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 56 (61)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 11 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Rasmussen Reports (2/18, likely voters, 9/22 in parentheses):
Chet Culver (D-inc): 37 (34)
Terry Branstad (R): 53 (54)
Some other: 6 (8)
Not sure: 4 (4)Chet Culver (D-inc): 40 (39)
Bob van der Plaats (R): 46 (43)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Research 2000 for KCCI-TV (2/15-17, likely voters, 10/12-14 in parentheses):
Roxanne Conlin (D): 35 (39)
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 56 (51)
Undecided: 9 (10)
(MoE: ±4%)
Research 2000 for KCCI-TV (2/15-17, likely voters, 10/12-14 in parentheses):
Chet Culver (D-inc): 38 (43)
Terry Branstad (R): 54 (48)
Undecided: 8 (9)Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (55)
Bob van der Plaats (R): 38 (33)
Undecided: 21 (12)Chet Culver (D-inc): 44 (58)
Chris Rants (R): 33 (28)
Undecided: 23 (14)Chet Culver (D-inc): 48 (NA)
Rod Roberts (R): 26 (NA)
Undecided: 26 (NA)
(MoE: ±4%)
Selzer for Des Moines Register (1/31-2/3, adults, 11/8-11 in parentheses):
Chet Culver (D-inc): 33 (33)
Terry Branstad (R): 53 (57)
Not sure: 9 (8)Chet Culver (D-inc): 40 (37)
Bob van der Plaats (R): 43 (45)
Not sure: 12 (15)Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (42)
Chris Rants (R): 37 (35)
Not sure: 14 (18)Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (NA)
Rod Roberts (R): 36 (NA)
Not sure: 15 (NA)
(MoE: ±4%)
A whole lot of Iowa data has found its way across our desk over the last week, none of it terribly good for incumbent Governor Chet Culver or Senate challenger Roxanne Conlin. Or you can look at the bright side: the news is less bad if you look at the Rasmussen and Selzer trendlines. (Research 2000, not so much, but that trendline goes all the way back to October… and the earlier poll was commissioned for Daily Kos rather than KCCI, although that shouldn’t affect the toplines.)
In case you were hoping that somehow Chet Culver might wind up facing former Republican state legislative leader Chris Rants, though, don’t get your hopes up… Rants dropped out of the race last Friday, probably seeing no path out of the primary that’s dominated by Branstad and van der Plaats. As always, desmoinesdem is on the scene, with discussion already underway in two different diaries.
I don’t see how you can pull yourself back from such abysmal poll numbers. Culver consistently polls over twelve points behind Branstad. Maybe Bruce Braley would have better luck.
We have still not seen a public poll of the Republican race for governor. Branstad’s campaign release a few numbers from an internal poll that supposedly showed him leading Vander Plaats 63 percent to 18 percent, which many people found hard to believe. I expect Branstad to win the primary easily, but some people think Vander Plaats will have a superior organization with help from local party activists and churches.
The Iowa Republican blog and Concordia Group commissioned a poll of the governor’s race last month but did not ask about the GOP primary, even though their July 2009 poll did ask about the GOP primary. I suspect that because they are supporting Branstad and didn’t want to poll the race and possibly come up with numbers less favorable than Branstad’s internals.
I can’t understand why Selzer’s poll for the DM Register did not ask about the GOP primary. Branstad has been a candidate for a while now.
Let’s not forget that Culver actually held onto the Iowa governorship in 2006 when Tom Vilsack opted to retire, whom had already been governor for 7 years before that. So the Democrats have been in charge of the governorship for 12 years. Maybe this is just that time for change.
Chet Culver has been pretty even handed in governing and hasn’t really sold out to big business or organized labor. What people expect? Terry Branstad to raise sales tax, property tax and cut government services again. I am tired of all these public sector workers complaining about Culver’s budget wait till Terry gets in there again.
Roxanne Conlin pulled Grassly from a 28% lead to a 17%?! That is pretty impressive against someone who has easily won almost every statewide election.