Cincinnati

So exciting to see Hamilton County and my hometown of Cincinnati) blue in 2008, I'm very curious to see in 2012 whether this shift holds up or if we return to our red roots...

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by: aamail6 @ Mon Feb 22, 2010 at 22:05:09 PM UTC

I actually think it's an Obama-only shift

Blacks in Cincinnati never turned out before Obama; I'm not sure they will do so after him.

http://mypolitikal.com/

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by: Inoljt @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 03:39:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wonder about your intentions

I remember your series of diaries about swing states, and this seems to be a rehashing of some of the ideas that you expressed back then, that 2008 was a unique coalition for Barack Obama in the state, not ever to be repeated.  As a resident of Ohio, you could definitely feel the weight shift under your feet in 2008, and I don't have much doubt that many of the same trends will repeat themselves in 2012 with Obama up for re-election.  But what about beyond then?  I wonder about the same things myself.  

I'll throw in my comments by region:

Northeast - Although Obama didn't move the needle much here, I tend to think it was more Kerry overperforming than Obama underperforming.  He still won by 26% in Mahoning County (Youngstown), 17% in Summit County (Akron), 3% in Stark County (Canton), and a whopping 38% in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland).  I'm not sure what more Obama could have done in the Cleveland area, 70-30 is a really strong majority.  I did notice that many areas of NE Ohio that rejected Obama were the same ones that voted for Hillary in the primary.  I'm guessing that if ill feelings were still present for some of these Hillary voters it won't be a factor in '12.  We're fine in the northeast.  

Northwest - Obama did the best here of any part of the state, particularly in the rural country west and south of Toledo.  The democratic ground game was superb here, and McCain made a big strategic blunder when in the debates he said he wouldn't support farm subsidies for corn and ethanol (a HUGE part of this area's economy).  So I'm ambivalent that NW Ohio will be as good in '12.  But if the numbers stay where they are, it's a big jump from before.

Southwest - Obama really did well in Cincinnati, and yes, the minority turnout there was the primary reason.  It's unlikely that a white democrat would get such a surge, so out of all regions of the state, I do worry about SW Ohio and the Cincy area.  Watch out for Dayton too, it seems like the needle barely budged there in 2008 and it's not quite as reliably democratic as it used to be.  

Southeast - This region is trending hard to the right, but relative to the other regions of the state hardly anybody lives here, so I'm not too worried about it.  

Central - Without a doubt, I think that the emergence of Columbus as a major liberal bastion is the biggest development taking place in Ohio.  For so long, Columbus was a center of independence, and it was a swing city.  Now, it's on a course that could someday take it into the same stratosphere as Cleveland.  Look at Franklin County, 3% win for Gore, 9% win for Kerry, 20% win for Obama.  And the transition, unlike in Cincinnati, wasn't totally on the shoulders of minorities.  White voters in the Columbus area, especially the well-educated, are really turning hard in the democratic direction.  If this continues, this nullifies the southeast's turn to the right and protects against any conservative gains in the northwest, northeast, and southwest.  Columbus is here to stay.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 04:19:46 AM UTC

I like your analysis, and

I think its very sound. But I wasn't specifically thinking of Obama when I wrote this post; the part about him was just, as you say, a rehashing of my swing state analysis. I just saw the NYT produce these beautiful maps, and felt like commentating on them.

As for my opinion on Obama - I do think that Obama underperformed in Ohio, as I state in the post, and I think the state is moving away from Democrats (versus, say, a place like Virginia or Nevada). But who knows, I may be completely wrong (I hope I am).

http://mypolitikal.com/

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by: Inoljt @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 08:56:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Turning away from the Democrats is putting it too strongly

Ohio was never a Democratic bastion to begin with.  No Republican has ever won the White House without also winning Ohio.  It's historically a Republican State that has some Democratic inroads.  I think the reason why Obama's gains were smaller here than in some of the other States is that McCain seriously contested Ohio.  His more limited resources forced him to give up on some states (eg. Michigan) and falsely assume that others were in the bag (eg. Indiana and N. Carolina).

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 14:56:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's also worth mentioning

Obama's relative underperformance in Ohio was actually closer to the historical level of support that Democrats usually get (granting in a somewhat different way), as was noted in the diary, Kerry's overperformance (relative to his national popular vote) was the anomaly.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 19:48:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ohio isn't turning away from the Dems

Both parties have strong bases in the state, which is why it will also be a battleground. Dems have a base in Cleveland/Franklin County/Toledo/Dayton/Youngstown. GOP has a base in Cincy suburbs, exurban Columbus, Western Ohio, and much of North Central and south central Ohio.

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by: phillytx @ Tue Feb 23, 2010 at 21:09:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You are right, BUT...

I think what is considered the Democratic base in Ohio is changing, and this election is surely indicative of that.  Back when the AFL-CIO practically owned the industrial corridors of the state, a typical Dem victory  would be the Northeastern part of the state plus Toledo and a few additional Appalachian counties.  Carter's victory in '76 is a perfect example of this, and Clinton's wins both times basically milks the formula for everything it's worth.  Since a lot of the industry is closing up shop and moving out, it's changing to something more like what Obama did: large cities and areas with large college populations.

The Senate primary this year, at least in my eyes, is  indicative of the trends.  Fisher is an old school labor/machine politics Democrat, while Brunner is the progressive (Note: I refuse to get into any flamewars on this topic, so I will say that I remain neutral in this primary).

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by: Xochi @ Wed Feb 24, 2010 at 04:19:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]