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Possible replacement candidates for Hill and Ellsworth

by: hoosierdem

Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 10:00 PM EST


Most speculation has indicated that both Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill are the current frontrunners to take Evan Bayh's place. I have compiled a list of the bench we have in both districts. I am from the ninth and know much more about it than I do about the eighth. If I left off any potential candidates please let me know.

          8th

Of course the best candidate, Jon Weinzapfel, has already ruled the bid out. That really sucks, because he would sail through the election. However I suppose he wants to be Governor. Like I previously stated I don't know a whole lot about the 8th but I did my best.

*Bob Deig- State senator from Evansville since 2006. He has a strong pro guns and life voting record similar to that of Ellsworth's,

*Lindel Hume- He is a state senator from Princeton. He has served in the state senate since 1982 and was a member of the state house from 1974 until his election to the senate.

* Dale Grubb - He is a state representative that has served since 1988 and is currently Democratic Caucus Chair.

*Dennis Avery- He is a state rep from Evansville who has served since 1974.

*Trent Van Haaften- He is a state rep from Evansville, who is also a well respected lawyer that could possibly self finance.

* Anne Slaughter Andrew, Ambassador to Costa Rica, and wife of former the former DNC chair.

        9th

The 9th is one that will probably be gerrymandered to death after the census, so this is more than likely Hill's last term. So if we lose his district it is not the end of the world. Now as the district stands it is my view that neither Hill or Sodrel have ever been liked by the voters, so having a fresh democrat to take on Sodrel wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

*Doug England- Mayor of New Albany who I think would have the ability to self finance.

*Vi Simpson- She is the current Minority leader of the state senate from Bloomington. She is currently sitting on about $250,000. She is a known liberal, but she could still win.

*Mark Kruzman- He is the current mayor of Bloomington, and former state house majority leader.

*Paul Young- State Senator who was briefly a candidate for Governor last year, although he is up for re-election and might not want to risk it.

*Paul Robertson- The State house majority whip who has served in the house since 1978. He is an old teacher of mine. He is well loved in Harrison County, by both democrats and republicans.

*Theodore "Buck" Mathis- Well this one is me being kinda stupid, but I will put it anyway. Buck is the Harrison county commissioner who is about as good ol' boy democrat as they come. He always wears overalls, has a large beard and drives a 30 year old truck. He is a farmer, and EVERYONE in Harrison, Crawford, and Floyd County knows who he is. The down side to a Buck candidacy is that he would not be able to self finance, and he probably doesn't own a suite, and I am 100% serious on that one.

*Connie Sipes- State Senator from New Albany, who is retiring this year anyways. She is a former high school principal, and she is very popular in Floyd County.

*Gordan Ingle- He is a Corydon Indiana attorney who is loaded and well connected. If you want someone to self finance then he is your guy.

*John Mellencamp- This is just a pipe dream I thought up, but Mellencamp is an Indiana legend who is still living in Indiana. You can see him at IU games all of the time. I believe he owns property both in Seymour and Bloomington. There is NO WAY Mellencamp would lose, although there is also probably no way he would run either.

I will try to add more names if I think of them, and if you want to give me some ideas as well it would be great. I know my list in the eighth is especially weak.

I am not sure which district would be easier to defend, although neither will be a cake walk I promise you. What district do you think we have a better shot at?

hoosierdem :: Possible replacement candidates for Hill and Ellsworth
Update
As GOPVOTER has pointed out, Hill has some non credible primary opposition. If Hill did run then I think someone would be able to run a write in campaign for the nomination.

Poll
Out of the 8th and 9th, what would be the easiest district to defend if it became open?
The 8th, The republican candidate is not tough
The 9th, no way they elect Sodrel
Both are equally difficult

Results

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I was watch Maddow tonight
and during a commercial break I went to see what Hannity was up to. Apparently, he devoted an entire (albeit short) segment to bashing Mellencamp for his endorsement of Edwards. Not that this matters at all, but I thought it was interesting that conservatives are at least wary enough of his candidacy to make a point about it. I doubt he jumps in, but it's still interesting.

Great run-through, by the way. I've learned so much about Indiana politics just over the past few days.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan


John Mellencamp for Senate...
Why limit our pipe-dreams to a mere US House seat when he'd be even more welcome as a Senate candidate. A hell of a lot more progressive than Evan Bayh (to say nothing of better able to carry a tune).

In my dream Senate, we'd see Senator John Mellencamp of Indiana, Senator Bruce Springsteen of New Jersey, Senator Melissa Etheridge of Kansas, Senator George Clooney of Kentucky, Senator Garth Brooks of Oklahoma, Senator Oprah Winfrey of Illinois, and Senator Margaret Cho from California.

They'd all be extremely welcome improvements to the US Senate.  


So, would we give Martin Sheen a Senate seat?
Or should he return to the White House :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Garth Brooks?
He's a liberal?  

[ Parent ]
I've tried googling it
as best I can figure out, he's a registered Republican who splits his tickets according to who he believes is the best candidate.  He seems to respect and wish Obama well, and played at his Inauguration party.  Also his wife Trisha Yearwood is a big Democrat.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Senator Trisha Yearwood (D-Georgia)
That works for me.

You know what's weird? I could see her being a really strong candidate.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Senator Melissa Etheridge
Holy cow, if Kansas elected Melissa Etheridge as its Senator, I would move back instantly, if only for the cool factor.

And does anyone else think that Clooney would outpoll both Mongiardo and Conway in KY?

Sen. Garth Brooks > Sen. Boren, no matter what party labels should make me say.

Wouldn't be being the junior Senator from Illinois be a step down for Oprah?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Garth Brooks is a Dem?
I always thought he was a Repub.  

[ Parent ]
I hate to burst your bubble but...
God I hope Dems pick Hill! He has 3 nobody primary opponents, so they could not pick a replacement to him. The winner of the GOP primary would be the winner of the general election. Plus, Hill is a much weaker candidate than Ellsworth.  

Baron Hill
Baron Hill it is then!   :)

But seriously, don't you think he'd have a solid shot of winning against Coats or the Hos?

Sure, we'd lose his House seat for a cycle to Sodrel, but redistricting will likely eliminate him and/or a House seat in this area anyway...

I think Ellsworth would be as near of a lock as Dems could get, but I do think Hill would be a bit favored, or at the very least straight-up tossup, over the Republicans currently in the race....

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
?
I don't think Indiana is slated to lose a House seat.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Indiana is losing population
In areas that aren't Indy, generally. There's gonna be a shakeup post-2010, methinks. Not that they'll lose a seat, but that the seats they have will have to be significantly rearranged, is what I mean.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Any serious Dem will. Its just that Hill is much easier to beat than Elsworth. Oh, and I don't see it as Coats vs Hos. Its Coats vs Stutzman. Erick Erickson, who does not care how conservative you are and thinks that as long as you are a candidate backed by the big, bad scary "establishment" you MUST die, backs Stutzman. Most of the anti-Coats Republicans dislike Hostettler and know what a big joke he is. Even they know that if you lose an R+8 district by nearly 20 pts you suck. Plus, he is against the Iraq War, which makes him more like a Paulists, whom most Red Staters and Erickson hate, unless that Paulist is Rand Paul who is taking on another evil person from the establishment.


[ Parent ]
So RedState
Ha! So Erick Erickson is your God now?...interesting...

Stutzman, eh? So what I'm hearing is that for Republicans, Coats is the moderate establishment choice, Stutzman is for the teabaggers and conservative purists, while Hostettler is for ...well, idiots. If that's true, I guess Republicans aren't as awesomely illogical in Indiana as Dems were hoping.

Worst case scenario for you, then, has to be if Coats and Stutzman and any also-rans split the vote sufficiently that the Hos somehow gets through.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Not mine
He kinda pisses me off sometimes.

[ Parent ]
I really
want to see some primary numbers. I am 100% serious when I tell you that we have a huge number of tea party folks in Indiana, and from what I have heard they don't like Coats. I think it had to do with him being somewhat for gun control and the whole Washington insider thing is not going on well over for GOP voters either. Stutzman is a nobody state senator who was just elected last cycle, he has pathetic fundraising, and I doubt he would get more than 10% of the vote in the primary.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Ya
speaking of Rand Paul. He's a little more to the mainstream of conservative ideology than his dad. I saw his first ad and his views on national security are to the right of his father. Plus he's gone to great pains to try to distance himself from the more loonier elements of his father's coalition (aka the tin foil hat people). Though I don't think Stulzman will catch on fire, especially on the donation front. There isn't an online fundraising infrastructure on the right yet like us on the left have with ActBlue. Though I'm sure since Scott Brown raised millions on the internet we might see something like ActBlue sprout up on the right soon enough.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Actually
If Hill ran than someone could do a write in candidacy. Vi Simpson or Paul Young would have no problem winning the nomination and would be very credible candidates in the general as well. I will update my diary to include that. Also I agree with you that Ellsworth is a stronger candidate, but you guys have pretty mediocre ones yourself, and I could see Hill winning.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Write in campaign
I think a write in campaign would be harder than some people make it out to be.  I recall the fiasco with Tom DeLay's seat in 2006, where the Republican candidate won the "special" election but the Democrat won the general on the same ballot.

Granted, since it is a primary you would not have the people who just go and vote party line without looking at the ballot.  That would probably make it a little easier, but I still think it would be difficult.


[ Parent ]
I
think we would be fine doing a write in campaign. It is not like the hoosier dems have any important races in the primary, so most of the people who do go to vote will be well informed of the situation.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
This would be a write in campaign for the primary, not the GE
So you wouldn't have the same issues.  Your write in candidate would just need to get more than the no-name dems on the ballot.  By the way my state rep successfully won a write-in campaign against a serious challenger, so it is possible. (Some of his signatures supposedly disappeared from his office so he didn't make the ballot.  In Massachusetts, we call them "sticker campaigns" because candidates give their supporters stickers to paste into the write in slot.)

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Charlie Wilson
won his OH-06 primary as a write-in a couple years back.

[ Parent ]
Schellinger might run for Senate
On the subject of the Senate seat, Jim Schellinger has expressed interest. I can't imagine they would pick him unless Ellsworth, Hill, AND Donnelly all say no.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

On the plus side, he could run as a non-Washington insider. I wouldn't rule out him beating Coats or Hostettler. BUT, I imagine he would be the underdog.  


Are the Repubs in the Eighth serious candidates?



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