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Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 6

by: Crisitunity

Wed Feb 17, 2010 at 6:18 PM EST


Awww, yeah... Scotty Ras is rollin' West Coast-style. Laiiiiiiid-back...

CA-Sen (2/11, likely voters, 1/14 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (46)
Carly Fiorina (R): 42 (43)
Some other: 7 (3)
Not sure: 5 (8)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 45 (46)
Tom Campbell (R): 41 (42)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 10 (9)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 47 (46)
Chuck DeVore (R): 42 (40)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 5 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

CA-Gov (2/15, likely voters, 1/19 in parens):

Jerry Brown (D): 43 (43)
Meg Whitman (R): 43 (39)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 8 (11)

Jerry Brown (D): 46 (45)
Steve Poizner (R): 34 (35)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 13 (11)

Dianne Feinstein (D): 45 (43)
Meg Whitman (R): 43 (42)
Some other: 2 (6)
Not sure: 9 (9)

Dianne Feinstein (D): 48 (43)
Steve Poizner (R): 36 (39)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 11 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

WA-Sen (2/11, likely voters):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 46
Dino Rossi (R): 48
Some other: 1
Not sure: 5

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50
Don Benton (R): 38
Some other: 3
Not sure: 9

Patty Murray (D-inc): 49
Clint Didier (R): 34
Some other: 4
Not sure: 13

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48
Chris Widener (R): 33
Some other: 5
Not sure: 14
(MoE: ±4.5%)

OR-Sen (2/16, likely voters):

Ron Wyden (D): 49
Jim Huffman (R): 35
Some other: 7
Not sure: 9
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Each of these polls requires a little clarification. First, Dianne Feinstein announced today that, no, she isn't running for Governor. (Maybe seeing her name polled over and over again by Rasmussen compelled her to act.) In Washington, Dino Rossi, who lost the 2004 and 2008 gubernatorial races and still has the fervent support of many tinfoil hat wearers who think he wuz robbed, has taken no steps toward becoming a candidate (although the GOP seems to be eager to hang their hats on the very small hook offered by his "Never say never" comment). The three GOPers in the race are state Senator Don Benton (who seems well-known as far as state Senators go, though kind of old news today -- he lost WA-03 to Brian Baird when it was open in 1998), former NFL player and businessman Clint Didier, and Chris Widener, a Seattle motivational speaker who recently just patched up relations with his ailing dad and found love with Jennifer Aniston. (Oh, wait... that's the movie I just saw on the airplane.)

In Oregon, today is probably the first day anyone has heard anything of Jim Huffman, who's rumored to be interested in taking on Ron Wyden although he hasn't filed yet. He's a former dean (and still professor) at Lewis & Clark Law School; Blue Oregon has some nice background on his connections to the anti-tax and property rights crowds. Bear in mind that both Washington and Oregon are very polarized states, where a ham sandwich -- nay, a pimento loaf sandwich with spoiled mayonnaise -- is guaranteed 40% just for showing up with an "R" next to its name, so the numbers for the miscellaneous cast of characters in WA-Sen and OR-Sen should come as no surprise. (It's the getting to 50%, or even 45% usually, that's the problem for these states' GOPers.)
Crisitunity :: Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 6
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Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 6 | 33 comments
Washington
There is another Republican in the race. He entered a few days before Benton, not sure why Ras did not poll him. He went up with a TV ad Monday. He's Paul Akers, some rich guy.  
Between
Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina, there are tons of rich people running as Republicans especially here in the West Coast.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Only
way they can raise the money to run in a Western State is to run a self-founder  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Steve Poizner
is mega-rich as well, IIRC close to a billionaire.
[ Parent ]
Not sure I entirely buy the OR-Sen numbers.
Wyden has long been the most popular politician in the state, even among Republicans. Case in point, in 2008 and with record turnout for Obama, Merkley won his narrow victory over Gordon Smith carrying 12 counties out of 36, all of them traditionally liberal population centers. In 2004, despite Oregon only narrowly going for Kerry, Wyden won 33/36 counties and only narrowly lost the other three. That's pretty damn impressive for any Democrat in Oregon, but especially one originally from Portland. It's because Wyden goes home on a regular basis and campaigns in the entire state - not just fundraisers for his base. Normally solidly Republican rural eastern Oregon loves him because he actually shows up and connects with people in a way that most politicians and especially most Democrats generally take for granted.

Now, I recognize that the anti-incumbent mood would take a toll on his numbers, and that Ras has an axe to grind, but this is still Ron Wyden we're dealing with, not Generic D, and I don't buy that Some Guy is even within 15, unless that's where he tops out. I worry about Merkley's prospects for re-election when the time comes, but Wyden is safe, even this year.  

SUSA
Put his approval a 53% in December. Is that about normal for Wyden?  
[ Parent ]
SurveyUSA gives also for talk long...

[ Parent ]
I don't really buy it, either
Ras's numbers have appeared way off all cycle.  I think Wyden probably gets at least 60 percent of the vote against a generic R.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
Yeah I'm a Rasmussen apologist and
this just doesn't pass the smell test for me. I'm not saying the firm purposefully published faulty numbers, it just seems like a cruddy survey or bad sample or something. I can't see how Wyden has below 50%, even with over a 10 point lead. Just seems weird.  
[ Parent ]
I trust the results
It's going to be a real hard year for all dem incumbents. Hell I even hear that Douglas may run in Vermont.
[ Parent ]
Thats not gonna happen
Its just been said that would be amazing if the national GOP could get him to run. He said he is retiring from public life and joked that his wife had divorce lawyers on speed dial if he ever tried to run for another office. If he wanted to run for something else, he'd probably have a much better shot at the At-Large house seat.  
[ Parent ]
Feinstein only beating Whitman by 2?
I call shenanigans  

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
I don't know
I live in California and I can't give you an answer here. Both Washington DC and Sacramento are equally hated over here. I remarked to my mom today that we might as well elect clowns to the legislature here because they can't get anything done. The US Senate is close behind though. But Whitman has had the radio and airwaves to herself, that probably explains why she's competitive with Jerry Brown at this point. Her ads are garbage by the way, I don't know why would have Pete Wilson tout your candidacy on the radio since he was responsible for the whole Enron debacle that brought down Gray Davis.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Also Survey USA put DiFi's numbers at 46%-46% in January
For some reason it's not on their site except under tracking: http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Problems
Diane Feinstein always have had problems with the left of the party, and the unions.

She doesn't vote the way they want her to do so. She dips into 60/40 voting record recently, and that really angers them.  

[ Parent ]
What?
Are you saying that DiFi has a party loyalty score of 60%? Because that is definitely not true (even if she leaves a lot to be desired for, as you put it, the left of the party).
[ Parent ]
My AP Gov
teacher said it was a surprise when she heard that Dianne Feinstein came out for the Public Option. Yes my AP Gov teacher is very liberal, it sucks my very conservative best friend has her this semester for regular government because she often goes off on these conversations that drive partisans crazy. Anyway, I don't know why people keep talking up a governor's run for DiFi. She tried that in 1990 and lost to Pete Wilson. She has too much seniority and power in DC now, why would she want to toss that all away to deal with Sacramento, where the state legislature routinely is gridlocked.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Speaking
of California. Gavin Newsom has pulled the trigger and has decided to run for lieutenant governor. I may vote for him in that case since the lieutenant governor's position is pretty much useless here, that's why John Garamendi jumped at the first chance he had to go to congress. Some of you know my beef with Newsom, I'll leave it at that.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

>:(
I really am not a fan of Newsom, I will be voting for someone else in the primary.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen WA poll
Rasmussen WA polls have overestimated Republican candidates by about 3 points ever since WA went to mail ballots. I think their likely voter screen is too tight and doesn't take into account higher urban Democratic turnout with new voting methods.

I don't understand why Moore and Rasmussen both are polling on Rossi. He has stated repeatedly that he isn't running. He gave a very strong statement to that effect to the Seattle Times and an even stronger statement to The News Tribune. In fact, Benton was pushed into the race in part because of Rossi's refusal to enter. Several of former Rossi staffers are part of the Benton campaign. Rossi is still trying to retire his campaign debt from his second failed gubenatorial race.

Ca-Sen
Just while we're on this topic, are Y'all sure Tom Campbell a more formidable candidate for the GOP than Fioina? I really think that boxer would much rather face a run-of-the-mill white male candidate than a volatile passionate non-career politician who in some ways is similar to boxer herself. I just don't think that the GOP has much of a chance running a "safe" candidate even in this enviroment.

I know Fiorina has alot, stress alot of vulnerabilities, none more so than her performance at HP, both her biggest strenght and weakness. Crucially though, she has the money to shape the narrative of this race and get her version if events across. She's an obscure candidate but with establishment support she'll improve.

She's a risky candidate choice for the GOP and maybe that's exactly what they need to beat Boxer in California.

 

That's
like saying we should run Blago for Obama's seat down in Illinois. Fiorina is going down by double digits, especially since Boxer's guys who make the attack ads don't have to fly far to interview HP employees about Failorina's tenure there.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Fly?
Thanks to TSA, I'm sure it takes less time to drive from San Francisco to Silicon Valley than to fly.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent
[ Parent ]
thanks to TSA
Mountain view is only 30ish miles down the pennisula.  45 minute Caltrain ride, 1/2 hour drive.  I think the fly reference was about her D.C. staff though.  Kind of a long drive from D.C. to the South Bay, no?

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
Wait!
You know a lot about Caltrain. Have you lived in the Bay Area at any point during your life?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
the 707 part of my handle is a reference to my native area code
I lived until I was 18 years old in Vallejo, CA (America's first city to go bankrupt).  I grew up on public transit.  Since then I have lived in cities in several different parts of the country while in college, grad school, and various jobs I have held.  I have always used public transit, but its a little harder here in KCMO.

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
HP
actually donated money to Boxer and Florina. I think we know where they stand.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Boxer's
gonna do what Ted Kennedy did to Mitt Romney in 1994, air ads with employees trashing Failorina's tenure at HP.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
If it wasn't Carly Fiorina
The problem with Carly Fiorina is that she sucks at life, generally, and campaigning, specifically. If someone with a Fiorina-like profile (aka-Meg Whitman) was running, I would be a lot more scared for Boxer.

But Carly Fiorina's campaign thus far has proved how badly she sucks. She is just an awful, awful candidate and no amount of money can change that.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Fiorina's strength is her pocketbook, her weakness is her resume
It's the same quandry in Connecticut. The GOP can either coalesce around the poorly-funded candidate with the expansive legislative record (Tom Campbell/Rob Simmons) or the self-funder who has no Congressional experience and may be a trainwreck on the campaign trail (Carly Fiorina/Linda McMahon). The latter saves John Corynyn some financial heartache; the former is probably the better, albeit more expensive, strategy to actually winning the seats.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure
Campbell is liberal. Whitman is very much to the center. Fiorina is atleast conservative by CA standards. She would be better at getting out the base to vote.  
[ Parent ]
Campbell
is moderate on social issues. I believe he's pro choice, he's for gay marriage but won't try to campaign on repealing Prop 8. He's really conservative on fiscal issues though. For example, he wants Amtrak to be privatized to save money.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
If I had to guess...
Boxer probably has a 6-10% lead over her opposition.  Boxer hasn't really campaigned yet, and when she does, her numbers will improve.

Brown is probably running even or slightly ahead of the opposition.  I don't care for Brown:  I find him to be annoying, arrogant, and kooky.  He's also a retread.  

Murray should be ahead by double digits.  Rossi won't run, but if he did, he might be a hard candidate to beat.  Murray will survive.

I'm not that surprised by Wyden's numbers.  I have a college roommate who lives in Oregon, and from talking to him the Wyden's base in Oregon is a bit deflated.  Wyden's base is fairly liberal, and they don't believe that congress has done enough to curb the 8 years of the Bush regime.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 6 | 33 comments

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