PA2010 has some big news out of departed Rep. John Murtha's district:
Former state treasurer and auditor general Barbara Hafer said Monday that she will seek the House seat long held by the late Congressman John Murtha, making her the first Democrat to declare her candidacy in the wake of Murtha's death last week. ...
Almost from the moment Murtha died of complications from gallbladder surgery last week, Hafer was mentioned as a top-tier candidate for a Democratic Party eager to hold the 12th District seat. She will bring to the race a long record in elected office, as well as a possible measure of bipartisan appeal-she was a Republican for years before switching parties in 2003. ...
Hafer served as a commissioner in Allegheny County in the 1980s, auditor general in the 1990s and treasurer from 1997-2005. She sought the GOP nomination for governor in 2002, but after party leaders coalesced behind then-Attorney General Mike Fisher, Hafer endorsed Democrat Ed Rendell, and switched parties the next year. She was also the Republican nominee for governor against Bob Casey in 1990.
Hafer was also talked about as a possible Dem contender against Rick Santorum - and alternative to Bob Casey - back in 2006, in part because of her pro-choice views. That, plus her GOP background, might not be the best of fits for this conservative, blue-collar district. As PA2010 notes, it remains to be seen whether Hafer will line up establishment support. I tend to doubt, though, that she can clear the field, given her pedigree. And there are a ton of potential candidates here (on both sides), which PA2010 covers in two lists. (Shira Toeplitz of CQ/Roll Call also takes a look at some names.)
Importantly, there won't be a primary for the special election - nominees will be chosen by party committees. Dave Wasserman was quick to observe that this process caused serious problems for the GOP in both NY-20 and NY-23 last year. Similarly, an acrimonious nomination battle following Rep. Bud Shuster's 2001 resignation in the very red PA-09, says Wasserman, led to an "unexpectedly close" special election result for Shuster's son Bill (52-44).
Wasserman and Taniel both note that May 18th - the day of the special election - is also primary day, which almost certainly benefits the Dems. That's because there are contested Democratic primaries for both Senate (the hot Specter vs. Sestak battle) and for governor (a multi-way race with no real front-runner), while Pat Toomey and Tom Corbett have those nominations all but sewn up for the GOP. There's also another wrinkle here. Taniel:
Whoever the county chairs place on the general election ballot will not have first established their legitimacy through a primary vote, which means these anointed candidates could face challenges from other members of the party for the right to be the nominee on November's regularly scheduled ballot. ...
This could mean that whoever is nominated in the special election has to fight the opposing party's candidate while at the same time battling opponents from his own party.
And it could mean that the winner of the special election might not be the same as the winner of his or her party's nomination for the November general election. This phenomenon, while not unheard-of, has happened before - Neil Abercrombie, for instance, won a special but lost the November nomination on the same day. If one or more candidates on either side feels jilted by their party committee & vows to wage a serious primary challenge, perhaps we could see that sort of thing here, too. |
