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SSP Daily Digest: 2/15

by: Crisitunity

Mon Feb 15, 2010 at 4:11 PM EST


AZ-Sen: This is good news! For J.D. Hayworth! The right-wing anti-immigrant vote in the GOP primary isn't going to be split. Minutemen co-founder Chris Simcox ended his bid and endorsed Hayworth, not having gotten much traction on the polling front even before Hayworth's entry. In a close race, though, Simcox's few percentage points could make all the difference for Hayworth. Bad news, for the GOP, though, is that Hayworth and John McCain are planning to go all Mutually Assured Destruction on each other in the primary, with Hayworth threatening that if McCain brings up Abramoff, he'll bring up the Keating 5. Dems really need a marquee candidate here to be poised to seize the smoldering ruins.

CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff is rolling out more endorsements, as he seems to be finally getting his primary challenge to Michael Bennet into gear in the wake of recent polling showing him outperforming Bennet in the general election. He's claiming the endorsement of more than two-thirds of the Democrats in the state House, including current majority leader Paul Weissman, as well as state Senate majority leader John Morse and former House speaker Ruben Valdez. Romanoff, of course, is a former House speaker himself, so he's got an 'in' with the legislative types.

NV-Sen: I wonder if this is the break that'll save Harry Reid's butt in November? (Especially if Sue Lowden winds up winning the GOP nomination, as she's public enemy number 1 to the state's Paulists.) The "Tea Party" has filed a "Certificate of Existence" (where can I get one of those, for whenever people doubt that I exist?) in Nevada, and will have its own candidate on the ballot in November. Jon Ashjian will reportedly be their candidate; the question still remains just how big a bite he takes out of the Republican column, though. In addition, there will also be a Reform Party candidate on the ballot and as many as five independents.

NY-Sen-B: Mort Zuckerman? Really? Maybe he's taking a page from friend Michael Bloomberg and realizing that, with enough money, any political office is within reach for a restless billionaire. The 72-year-old Daily News publisher and real estate baron is considering a race against Kirsten Gillibrand, although there's no indication of which party label he'd use. He's known as a Democrat, but it seems likely he'd pursue either an independent or Republican bid to avoid the Democratic primary (where Harold Ford Jr. already seems to be occupying the turf Zuckerman would need in order to win).

CT-Gov: Here's the top facepalm news of the day: Ned Lamont has hired a campaign manager as he officially kicks off his gubernatorial campaign, and he hired Joe Abbey, last seen... wait for it... helming Creigh Deeds' campaign.

FL-Gov: This doesn't sound very promising either, as the St. Petersburg Times looks at the growing sense of torpor surrounding the Alex Sink campaign. Sink has had little trouble fundraising and a so-so GOP opponent, but operatives are starting to worry she's walking a Martha Coakley-ish line on focusing on insider connections and with a lack of interest in mixing it up with voters or even developing a resonant message.

PA-Gov: The GOP state party endorsements came with a lot less drama than the Democrats', seeing as how they've had their candidates locked down for most of a year. AG Tom Corbett easily got the endorsement for governor over state Rep. Sam Rohrer, which was widely expected although it still piqued Rohrer's handful of right-wing supporters. The most drama was actually for the #2 slot; Bucks County Commissioner Jim Cawley managed to win the Lt. Governor endorsement on the second ballot out of a crowded field. On the Democratic side, Philadelphia-based state Sen. Anthony Williams is still expressing some interest in the race, although he's set a very high bar for entry for himself. He's sitting $1 million already, and he says if he can get that figure up to $4 million in the next few weeks, he'll jump in.

TX-Gov (pdf): There's yet another poll out of the Texas gubernatorial primaries, from a coalition of newspapers, most prominently the Austin American-Statesman. It's right in line with the other polls out recently, with Rick Perry at 45, Kay Bailey Hutchison at 29, and Debra Medina at 7. (They don't poll runoff matchups, or the Dem primary.) Houston mayor Bill White continues to make this a competitive race for the Dems in the general: he trails Perry 43-37, and Hutchison 42-34. Meanwhile, Debra Medina (who recently seemed to blunt any late momentum by revealing her truly kooky side) may have some good company, in the form of Democratic candidate Farouk Shami: he came out with some statements putting him in truther-curious territory as well. Shami is also about to announce the invention of a blow dryer that actually grows hair. (Why aim low, for merely Governor, if that's true? If it's really true, he's about to become a trillionaire.)

AZ-03: I'm not sure if this is the family name you really want, when running for office, but a new candidate is in the GOP field in the open seat race in the 3rd: Ben Quayle. The 33-year-old attorney, who hasn't run for office before, is the son of former VP and frequent punchline Dan Quayle.

FL-24: With the former CEO of the Ruth's Chris Steakhouse chain, Craig Miller, planning to run in the 24th, Democrats are spotlighting his opposition to tougher laws on drunk driving. (As a restauranteur, he would have a financial interest in getting that extra drink into his guests.) "Once 0.08 becomes law, why not 0.05 or 0.02?" he asked in a 2000 interview.

MA-10: The William Delahunt retirement rumors aren't going away, and now Glenn Thrush points to a Delahunt-out/Joe Kennedy III-in/Delahunt-endorses-Kennedy master-plan in the works. Kennedy, a Barnstable County prosecuting attorney, isn't the only Kennedy of his generation who's a possible House candidate; Politico helpfully provides a scorecard of various other Kennedys who might run for higher office in the future. At any rate, even if Joe III doesn't wind up in the next Congress, it's likely Congress won't stay Kennedy-free for very long.

OK-05: There's one less Oklahoma Republican in the primary for the open seat in dark-red OK-05. Corporation Commissioner Jeff Cloud cited non-life-threatening health concerns in dropping out of the race, although he plans to keep serving in his current job. Six different GOPers are in the field (perhaps most notably, former state Rep. Kevin Calvey), but no Dem has gotten in yet.

PA-03: One other dropout from a crowded GOP field, this time for the right to take on Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper in the 3rd. Tom Trevorrow, an ophthalmologist who made a splashy entrance recently with a big serving of self-funding and some expensive consultant hires, ended his bid just as quickly, citing his father's illness.

RI-01: A couple big names have already gotten into the race to replace retiring Rep. Patrick Kennedy, the biggest possibly being Providence's mayor David Cicilline (who surprised many by turning down a gubernatorial run this year). Cicilline would be the fourth openly-gay member of Congress, if elected. He'll have to get past William Lynch in the primary, though; Lynch, the brother of AG and gubernatorial candidate Patrick Lynch, just resigned as the state's Democratic party chair in order to run. Pretty much every prominent Democrat around is also listed as a possible candidate: Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts (who also decided against a gubernatorial run), ex-Rep. Bob Weygand (of RI-02, who lost the 2000 Senate race to Lincoln Chafee), ex-LG Charles Fogarty, and even state Rep. Betsy Dennigan, who's currently running a primary against Rep. James Langevin over in RI-02. (Rhode Island seems like Hawaii, where the boundaries between the two districts seem like they're of little practical importance.) On the GOP side, state Rep. John Loughlin is already in, while former Cranston mayor and Senate candidate Steven Laffey and state party chair Giovanni Cicione are also mentioned.

TN-08: Everyone has pretty well coalesced around state Sen. (and until recently, gubernatorial candidate) Roy Herron to try to hold retiring Rep. John Tanner's seat. Democratic state Rep. Craig Fitzhugh just announced that he wouldn't run, and in a somewhat encouraging sign, said that his own polling showed that he wouldn't have trouble getting past the various Republicans seeking the seat in the R+3 (but historically Democratic) district. Instead, he didn't see a way past Herron in the primary.

VA-05: PPP has some follow-up on its previous general election poll of VA-05, looking at the GOP primary, which has the potential to be one of the biggest flashpoints in the establishment/teabagger schism. For now, chalk this one up to the establishment: state Sen. Robert Hurt leads at 22 (leading among both moderates and conservatives), with Albemarle Co. Commissioner Ken Boyd at 12. The various members of the teabagging rabble all poll in the low single digits. With 51% still undecided, though, this is still anyone's game once the ad wars begin.

CA-LG: So, Arnold Schwarzenegger dialed down his banana-republic dictator act from last week, deciding to resubmit Republican state Sen. Abel Maldonado for appointment as Lt. Governor, rather than deciding to swear him in despite not getting enough votes in the Assembly to confirm him. The legislature has another 90 days to decide what to do with him.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 2/15
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Another Dem sen to retire?
http://insidecharmcity.com/201...
Atleast this one will give ya'll some time to pick a new candidate and would be a safe seat anyway.
Sad for us though :(  

You guys could run Michael Steele again.
Everybody wins!

[ Parent ]
We'd lose the race
But he'd have to give up his RNC chair...so all the other races we'd win would make up for it!

[ Parent ]
doubtful about Steele
if a million dollars after taxes if not a lot money these days ... imagine Steele trying to live off a Senator's salary. The horrors!  

[ Parent ]
Please
Don't ruin my dream

[ Parent ]
read further
cilliza says it's not true.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
She's been an inch from retiring
for a couple of years now.  I've heard she's a wonderful person but supposedly she's been having increasing trouble keeping up with stuff.

I don't think she'd announce now- that would be terrible timing.  But she's on a lot of peoples' lists of prospective retirements for a while.


[ Parent ]
I could see why
This one would not be surprising, especially if her injury is really that bad. She's 73 with a bad ankle injury. Does she really want to make a 6 year commitment? I know I wouldn't want to if I were her. Plus, I want to stay happy with the thought of Steele running and resigning as RNC Chair.  

[ Parent ]
LOL
I bet you do! Besides Steal, what type of bench do you guys have in MD? I know it is a left leaning state, but Mass was a left leaning state as well.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
There isn't one
The Republican bench in MD is, I kid you not, the two guys who ran for MD-01 last year (Andy Harris and E.J. Pipkin).  Harris is running against Kratovil again, so he's out; Pipkin was last seen getting thrashed by Mikulski six years ago.

Beyond that, there's the retread Ehrlich, Steele (who doesn't even live there anymore), and 84-year-old Congressman Roscoe Bartlett.  There are also a bunch of State Senators and State Reps, but they never run for higher office because gerrymandering gives them safe legislature seats, while they'd be guaranteed to lose against, probably, Chris Van Hollen in the Senate race.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...


[ Parent ]
Why would CVH go for the Senate?
He's already in line to be Speaker of the House when Nancy retires.

What about Rep. John Sarbanes, AG Doug Gansler or LG Anthony Brown?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)


[ Parent ]
Sarbanes and Brown would be my guesses
Dutch Ruppersberger might make a run for the next open seat (he was considered a potential contender in 2006), but he's pretty conservative for a Maryland Dem, so I don't think he'd fare well in a primary.

[ Parent ]
Also Kweisi Mfume could make another try at it


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
CVH can't be Speaker
He was born in Pakistan, and I believe since the Speaker is in line for the Presidency they have to be born in the U.S. Although I could be wrong about that though.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Uh
the only line of succession official who has to meet the exact same qualifications as the President is the Vice President.

Aside, Van Hollen might just be a natural born citizen since his parents were Americans.

But it would be a good way to trip up idiots to put up pics of Obama and Van Hollen and see how many of them think that Obama was the one born in Pakistan.


[ Parent ]
"Natural-born citizen"
It's not that they have to be born in the U.S. -- they have to be natural-born citizens. CVH's parents were in the Foreign Service (actually, Wikipedia says his mother was in the CIA, which is kind of bad-ass), so even if he wasn't born in a military hospital, he'd (most likely) be a natural-born citizen by virtue of both his parents being American citizens. The courts have never explicitly ruled on this, so I could be wrong, but this very argument came up about McCain, who was born in the Canal Zone in Panama while his father served there in the Navy.

[ Parent ]
You are mistaken
That rule only applies to Vice Presidents via the 12th amendment. Nothing in there or in U.S. Code - 3 USC 19 says that Speaker of the House has to be born in the United States. He would just have to be skipped over in the line of succession. If what you are saying were accurate, then it would also have to apply to Cabinet secretaries. And, obviously, we have had foreign born Cabinet secretaries in the past, Henry Kissinger being the most famous.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
There are more recent examples
Elaine Chao and Mel Martinez both served in the Bush administration, despite being born in Taiwan and Cuba, respectively.

[ Parent ]
Albright, too.
She was born in what is now the Czech Republic.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
the Speaker of the House
doesn't even have to be a member of the House of Representatives if enough people vote for her/him.


[ Parent ]
I am mistaken


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
There's a regional split that happens
Baltimore-area pols versus DC-area pols (and as a secondary effect, Prince George's County pols versus Montgomery County pols; both are affluent suburbs of DC, but PG Co. is basically home of the African-American upper-middle class). You saw some of this come out with Jack Johnson (PG Co executive) making noise during the Sarbanes/Steele campaign; I've felt for a while that Brown was the natural successor to Mikulski thanks to a prominent state-level post and good geography (as a former PGC-area legislator), although I no longer live in the area and don't know if anything damaging came out during his divorce. He's got a good profile for a state-level campaign and plausibly could beat CVH in a primary, if it came to that, on the back of strength as an African-American with tight ties to the state-level establishment. Brown vs. Ehrlich would be a brawl, given the geographic split and Ehrlich's strength in the (white) Baltimore suburbs.

[ Parent ]
Fmr Gov Bob Ehrlich
He'd probably be their best shot. It was speculated he may run for Governor but if this seat opens, I'd say he'd jump in. I haven't heard of any body else, the GOP don't have much of a bench.

[ Parent ]
I think he'd consider it
He said people have asked him to run against her, but he won't. I think he will run for gov, but if she retires, he will see what he has a better chance of winning. If not, some state legislator.  

[ Parent ]
No reason for Dems to hurry on AZ-Sen
With the primary not until August, there's plenty of time to wait and see whether Hayworth actually gets traction.  And the presumptive Dem candidate, Jim Pederson, has statewide name recognition and can dump tens of millions of his own money into the race at a moment's notice.  Dems really are better served waiting and seeing here.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

Wait, I thought
The presumptive nominee was Rodney Glassman, a young Tuscon city councilman who also has millions to burn if necessary?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
That's the case right now
Although Glassman's millions are, I think, a rumor (even though the rumor came from an AZ Democratic Party leader).  None of the bloggers down in Tucson has any idea about Glassman being a multi-millionaire, nor do I quite understand how the guy could have amassed millions while being a realtor and running a small children's charity.

Pederson and Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon are the big dogs who've been sniffing around various races looking for an opening.  Gordon has the problem that he's endorsed McCain, plus he's pretty clearly running for AZ-03 now (something that frankly surprised me), so that leaves Pederson as the alternative if we need a heavier hitter than Glassman.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...


[ Parent ]
Cook moves IN-SEN to Lean D
Cites Dems not able to come up with a candidate.

WHAT A LOAD OF  . . . . !!!!!

Leaves FL-25 at Safe and now moves IN-SEN beyond Toss Up, proof is in the pudding,me thinks.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


I think it's the old adage of you
cannot beat someone with no one.  

[ Parent ]
I
believe Cook moved it to leans R, is that what you meant?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
NV-Sen The TeaBag party of NV
I'm just having trouble believing this will be a big help in Nov. for Reid as it's being made out to be in the blogs.

Whoever will vote that ballot line rather than for the Repub nominee against the truly despised Harry Reid probably would have voted for some fringe right-wing candidate anyway. (or for none-of-the-above).

And whoever the R candidate is, he/she can likely pander a little  bit and bring many of those votes back home.


Why don't we even have a placeholder in OK-5?
Granted, it's Oklahoma, but OK-5 is the most liberal district in the state...which, yes, is not saying much. But still, we've know this would be an open seat for awhile, and we can't even get an OKC commissioner or state Rep. or something?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

AG Drew Edmondson ought to run
[ Parent ]
TN-08
So I went and checked out Roy Herron's website.  When you check out his Accomplishments page on what he's done as a state legislator, there's a common theme of fighting for the little guy and the working class, so I definitely sense a populist streak in Herron.

And on his Issues page, as many have been saying what the Democrats' message needs to be for 2010, his top priority is jobs, jobs, jobs.  Also good to see, as something I've been saying for a while, when it comes to the environment, Herron uses the argument of being good stewards to the Earth by protecting our environment, and uses that theme to support growing green jobs in Tennessee.

I think this is an excellent way of framing the debate, and Herron can probably make serious inroads with social conservatives, having graduated from divinity school and having written the book God and Politics: How Can a Christian Be in Politics?

I'm suddenly a lot more confident in Herron's chances of winning the seat, and of how he'll act in Congress.


BTW, did you guys see this?
TN-08 fundraising

From February 1, 2010:

State Senator and Congressional candidate Roy Herron today reported more than $680,000 for his campaign raised in less than a month, breaking all 8th Congressional District fundraising records. Herron also reported more than $655,000 cash on hand for the 4th quarter ending December 31, 2009.

Though...

Herron received contributions from more than 660 donors, including himself. He personally put $250,000 into the campaign, which is reflected as a loan on the federal report.

Still, that's pretty damn impressive, even without his loan to himself.


[ Parent ]
obviously
it's a troofer conspiracy: Shami is secretly working for the Republicans and will sell the secrets of this hair-grower to Rick Perry in exchange for his dropping out. Medina will soak up the teabagger votes. Then Texas will secede and they'll bring back the gold standard, or something, and Alex Jones will be the press secretary for the United State of Texlandia. The end!

Alex Sink, NY-Sen, "trutherism"
How do we explain politicians who run extremely well state-wide for positions like Attorney General and then are lousy campaigners for higher-profile positions like U.S. Senator and Governor? I really would like some commentary on this. It may even be worth a diary to discuss this separately, if there's enough interest.

Mortimer Zuckerman is way too right-wing to win a Democratic primary statewide in New York. When you bring up Bloomberg, first of all, he ran on the Republican line; secondly, his opponent, Mark Green, ran a very bad campaign. I would be shocked if Senator Gillibrand runs a poor campaign, given her extremely hard-working track record in her former Congressional district. Then again, I just got through talking about Alex Sink. This is Gillibrand's first campaign for Senate, so it's not completely certain how she'll do.

Finally, about 9/11 "truthers": I think there are plenty of legitimate questions that haven't been answered, mostly relating to the fate of career employee whistle-blowers, who were ignored if not fired, and the higher-up political appointees, who ignored the warnings and got promoted or/and decorated after the calamity. But that said, I do think that in most cases other than Congressman Ron Paul of Texas (a majority of whose constituents don't seem to mind any kind of fringe stuff from him), any whiff of "trutherism" is likely to be political death for a candidate, and that, on this site, is the important point.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


Sink is
CFO in Florida in a race not getting much coverage ... certainly less than the Senate race with the Crist/Rubio drama. Anyway, she is probably doing the baseline Democratic levels. Her numbers should go up as the race gets closer but she may be at a disadvantage this year.  

[ Parent ]
I think gomer is right.
Running for CFO or Attorney General or Lieutenant Governor is different from running for Governor or U.S. Senator because of the difference in attention and importance.  It's harder to run for the Senate or for Governor because you have more attention thrust upon you.  Not to mention, you typically have a higher tier opponent.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
RI-01
what if Bill Lynch and Gio Cicione won their primaries? Battle of the party chairs! (unlikely though)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Is Baron Hill a magician?
According to Tamyra D'Ippolito he has the 4,500 signatures?
http://www.facebook.com/permal...

I doubt it
Unless Hill knew something that nobody else did. Which is also doubtful.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Yeah...
Somehow, from reading her other wall posts, I get the feeling that Tamyra isn't the most reliable source for political news...

[ Parent ]
She could be using it as an excuse for backing out


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Well.. it's possible..
There are two methods you'd use.  Hopefully concurrently.

First assuming you have instituional support.  You call up the head of every county committee in the state.  You fax them the signature form and you have them gather signatures purely from names of those who are on the county committee and who they know are solid people who will sign quick no questions ask.  They of course also go down to the city and town committees to see what signatures the can gather quickly.  You'd go to labor unions as well.

Second you hit shopping centers and supermarkets in areas with strong Democratic registration.  For each district hire 10 to 20 people from temp agencies (will cost you say 12.50 an hour) to work for 8 hours.  There are cheaper options than a temp agency but we're looking for the highest calibre and most reliable readily available paid worker possible.  Of course if you've got volunteers use them.  If each of them working in pairs can get 10 signatures an hour.  You've got 800 to 1600 additional signatures per CD.  You may only get a third of them being valid.  But assuming you also have the first method getting guaranteed solid signatures you should be on pretty good ground.

Anyway assuming I had a budget somewhere around 2k and I needed 4500 signatures in a day or two.  That is what I'd do.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
It
would be something trying to keep that secret though, someone would have blabbed. Not to mention that there is a bad snow storm right now, some southern IN areas are looking at 12 inches, which is not usual for the area.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen does his thing...
WA-Sen

Murray 48, Widener 33
Murray 49, Didler 34
Murray 50, Benton 38
Rossi 48, Murray 46

CA-Sen

Boxer 46, Fiorina 42
Boxer 47, DeVore 42
Boxer 45, Campbell 41

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Question
If Washingtonians love Dino Rossi so much, how come they never elect him to anything?  I see these incredible poll numbers every time he runs, and every time he comes up short.  Is it that they like him in January, but don't like him in November?

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
He's come close
He almost won in 2004, when he did NOT have these numbers. In 2004, if the election had been a week later, many people say he would have won. He erased a double-digit gap in the polls in the last weeks of the race to lead on election night, only to lose after the re-count. In 2008, he led, but McCain's weakness and Obama's strength along with the environment knocked him down.  

[ Parent ]
Cough
Cough, Mike Sodrel, cough.

Sorry, but you don't think losing two big prominent races will hurt him if he decides to take the plunge against Washington's heavyweight Senator who, and I think you'd have to agree, is definitely more popular than Gregoire?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
I
am not from Washington, but I think the reason he lost in 2008 was because it was a democratic leaning year.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Murray still looks like Safe Dem to me; Boxer's potentially veering from Likely to Lean Dem
I suspect Boxer's up by more like 8% rather than 4%, but still, she's no safe bet. The one thing she can probably take some solace in is that the national GOP seems to prefer Fiorina over Campbell, and I suspect Fiorina will win the nod and I also suspect Fiorina's about 5% less competitive than Campbell. DeVore's gonna need a mixture of Jim DeMint and tea-baggy help, but unfortunately for him, a lot of conservatives seem to be liking Fiorina too, and I think Fiorina's gonna get a solid chunk of Whitman voters too.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
If Californian voters choose a woman who
makes bizarre analogies to demon sheep, then by their own Three Strikes law, this is their second strike (the first being Prop 8).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I live
in California. If Campbell wins the primary, GOP chances of beating Boxer go up dramatically. Campbell is squarely in the center, neither too liberal or too conservative. Fiorina may bring millions into the race, but no way in hell we're going to choose the fired CEO of HP over our very liberal junior senator. Plus I don't think California can vote for two gazillionare CEO's in one election cycle.

Though this thought struck me today, maybe Boxer will retire instead of go through another tough reelection. She loves the senate unlike Evan Bayh, but she is in her 70's and might decide to pack it up and retire. Unlike Indiana, Boxer retiring wouldn't doom our chances of holding her seat, it might improve our chances since the only reason why Charlie Cook and the GOP think they can capture this seat is because Boxer is really polarizing at times. Plus it would allow Loretta Sanchez to move up, she maybe a blue dog but she opposed the Iraq War and came out in support of the Public option.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]
I agree
I'm already prepared to see "Barbara Boxer to retire" headline here at SSP (of course not a good thing, but still). Campbell will give her a real race, Fiorina will be lucky to come within at least an 8-point margin.

Boxer has ALWAYS campaigned negative against EVERY candidate she's faced (even if we all knew she didn't have to). Martha Coakley should take notes from her on how to campaign.


16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.


[ Parent ]
Boxer is a fighter, she wont be retiring because she got spooked
From here wikipedia page "She had decided to retire in 2004 but says she decided to run to "fight for the right to dissent" against conservatives like Tom DeLay."

She isnt involved in politics because she loves being a politician, she's there because she likes fighting the good fight and I doubt she'd bow out now.


[ Parent ]
Chillax, everyone
We're gonna vote in Gov. Moonbeam again, make pot legal (just got the signatures!), and return Barbara Boxer to the Senate. Then Ted Olson is gonna bitchslap Scalia and get Kennedy to take our side on Prop 8, and then we can get married and live happily ever after.

We're still California, baby, we're just broke.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Indeed.
Even with all the tough times we're facing, I still love California.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Frank Lautenberg taken to area hospital after fall
U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg was taken by ambulance tonight from his Cliffside Park home after suffering a fall, his spokesman said.

The 86-year-old Democrat was conscious when he was taken to the hospital "as a precautionary measure," said the spokesman, Caley Grey.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.s...

Sounds like he will be OK but news like this is why I feel politicians really need to really consider retiring at a certain age.  

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


He should have left in 2008
Has the New Jersey assembly changed the policy regarding picking a new Senator yet? I don't want to go there, but someone has to.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
No
And the dems don't have a veto proof mayority

[ Parent ]
Same goes for Byrd
He got heavily applauded when he showed up to vote for HCR to stop the filibuster and well, coming to the floor to vote shouldnt be an applause-worthy event when you are a US Senator.

[ Parent ]
IN-Sen: Did Tamyra D'Ippolito just say she has the sigs?
http://www.facebook.com/permal...
Thats what it sounds like
Let's see how long before the Jill Long Thompson write-in campaign starts!

Btw
Bayh, thanks for nothing, bye bye. Just read Politico where not only Redstate is trying to wreck some havoc, but also Firedoglake is too. At this rate I'm going to have to rip out the picture on my AP Government binder that's a Time Magazine cover with the GOP elephant with the title "Endangered Species".  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
It also looks like she can't spell "you're"
Great.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Does she have enough VALID sigs?
When trying to get a candidate or referendom on the ballot groups normally try to get well over the the amount of needed signatures because a large number are normally invaled. People not registered, wrong district or just plain made up names.

BTW forget the write in campaign, while far from ideal if someone wants to run they have until June to collect the needed signatures to get on the ballot as an Independent.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan


[ Parent ]
The question after that is...
...can you get on the ballot regardless if you have a zillion dollars for lawyers like in New York?

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Exactly
I think people underestimate just how hard it can be to collect thousands (or even hundreds) of signatures without big errors coming up.

I'll be very surprised if she pulls it off.


[ Parent ]
True
Even with the far-righr and left forming an unholy alliance to get her on the ballot.

[ Parent ]
CA-Sen: Rasmussen at it again
Right now on my local Fox affiliate, they're reporting yet another Rasmussen poll just released that shows Barbara Boxer (D) is ahead of Carly Fiorina (R) only by a 46%-42% margin.  Here are the margins.

Boxer (D) 46%
Fiorina (R) 42%

Boxer (D) 47%
DeVore (R) 42%

Boxer (D) 45%
Campbell (R) 41%

Now, see, this would be more believable had the margin been greater in the Boxer-DeVore matchup.  Something just doesn't smell right when DeVore and Fiorina get the EXACT same percentage of the vote.  It just doesn't.


Ah-hah!
And here's the evidence for that.  Both Field and PPIC don't have DeVore breaking the 40% barrier.  And even with the Fiorina matchup, Rasmussen's the only pollster that shows even Fiorina higher than 40%.

So color me skeptical on Rasmussen's numbers, especially when both Field and PPIC are quite respected when it comes to polling Californians.


[ Parent ]
It's kind of suspicious that Campbell doesn't do better than the others
Campbell has consistently outpolled Fiorina and DeVore in general election match-ups in just about every poll.

[ Parent ]
Those numbers

are just about identical to the current partisan baselines in California.  The state splits about 48% D, 40-41% R, with the rest usually leaning/voting D.

[ Parent ]
I really think
that Tamara is orly tatz sister. Please excuse my misspelling of both names.

http://dailycaller.com/2010/02...  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


CA-44
http://www.hedrickforcongress....

Found this interesting, among informed voters, Hedrick is up 41-38.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


Brown and Whitman
are tied 43 to 43.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  


Note that Brown clobbers Poizner by 12%
Whitman must be getting 20%+ Dems.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I hope
this is just a temporary bounce from Whitman's moneybombing of the state, hopefully she'll fall back down to earth soon.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Don't worry
Democrats are going on the attack today against Whitman.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


[ Parent ]

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