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TX-Gov: Perry in Runoff Territory, White Strong in New Polls

by: James L.

Fri Feb 12, 2010 at 5:56 PM EST


Take these polls with a grain of salt, considering that they were taken before Debra Medina was nailed for expressing 9/11 truther-esque sentiments in an interview with Glenn Beck. If Perry can scoop up enough votes from her hide, he could avoid a runoff, but that's a big if.

Here's the Texas-sized round-up:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/8-10, likely voters):

Rick Perry (R-inc): 42
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 30
Debra Medina (R): 17
Undecided: 11

Rick Perry (R-inc): 43
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 33
Undecided: 24

Rick Perry (R-inc): 44
Debra Medina (R): 23
Undecided: 33

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 38
Debra Medina (R): 30
Undecided: 32
(MoE: ±4.9%)

General election match-ups:

Bill White (D): 42
Rick Perry (R-inc): 46
Undecided: 12

Bill White (D): 41
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 47
Undecided: 12

Bill White (D): 43
Debra Medina (R): 44
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4%)

Hamilton Campaigns (D) and Public Opinion Strategies (R) for the Texas Credit Union League (1/3-4 & 6, likely voters):

Bill White (D): 51
Farouk Shami (D): 19
Felix Alvarado (D): 7
Undecided: 16

Rick Perry (R-inc): 49
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 27
Debra Medina (R): 19
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.9%)

University of Texas/Texas Tribune (2/1-7, likely voters):

Bill White (D): 50
Farouk Shami (D): 11
Someone Else: 9
Undecided: 30
(MoE: ±6%)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 45
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 21
Debra Medina (R): 19
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±5.1%)

General election match-ups:

Bill White (D): 35
Rick Perry (R-inc): 44
Someone Else: 8
Undecided: 12

Bill White (D): 34
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 43
Someone Else: 9
Undecided: 14

Bill White (D): 36
Debra Medina (R): 36
Someone Else: 8
Undecided: 21

Farouk Shami (D): 25
Rick Perry (R-inc): 49
Someone Else: 15
Undecided: 14

Farouk Shami (D): 23
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 49
Someone Else: 15
Undecided: 14

Farouk Shami (D): 24
Debra Medina (R): 40
Someone Else: 14
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±3.5%)

And, in the (increasingly unlikely) event of a special Senate election, U-T took a crack at that one, too:

John Sharp (D): 29
David Dewhurst (R): 15
Michael Williams (R): 3
Florence Shapiro (R): 2
Elizabeth Ames Jones (R):  2
Roger Williams (R): 1
Craig James (R): 1
Undecided: 47
(MoE: ±3.5%)
James L. :: TX-Gov: Perry in Runoff Territory, White Strong in New Polls
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Sharp
that doesn't actually look too bad for Sharpe....the Republicans total up to less than him.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

I'd guess the undecideds lean Republican
Since there's only one Democrat but a bunch of Republicans, a lot of voters who intend to vote for the Republican probably haven't decided which one to support in the primary yet.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Too bad it won't happen.

[ Parent ]
Mark my words - Michael Williams will be a US Senator one day
He's practically the Texas (not to mention African-American) version of Mike Huckabee - beloved among social conservatives, but likable and telegenic enough to reach out to moderates. He's also the choice of Jim DeMint and Newt Gingrich for this seat.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

I'm a Texan and mark my words...
there is NO WAY IN HELL Texas GOP voters will nominate Michael Williams to an open U.S. Senate seat.

Their bench is WAY TOO deep and there are lots of ambitious pols for federal office because, in the words of the infamous Rod Blagojevich, "a Senate seat is a fucking valuable thing. You can't just give it to anyone."  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


[ Parent ]
RE: R2K General Election Poll
Is 18% for Hispanics accurate for a general election? I see that exit polls say 20 percent for the 2008 election and that extra few points could make a big difference.

18% is probably accurate
Although I could definitely see that number increase as more and more immigrants become citizens (and their children turn 18, as that is probably an even bigger factor here).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Looking good
I've heard White hasn't spent a dime yet and he is polling 42-46 against Perry in the Reasearch 2000 poll!  Nice!  Even though a Hutchinson victory in the primary is looking nearly non-existent it is good to see her polling <50% against White.

Dallas Morning News, Houston Chronicle back Hutchison
All good news for Perry
Cements his image as scourge of the establishment and an "outsider." Also, plays into his message of "liberal media elite" and Hutchison is "one of them."

This primary is over, I'm more interested to know who is winning the TX-18 primary of Councilman Jarvis Johnson vs. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee and who will be the Dem nominee for Lt. Gov. AG will be Kinky (ugh) and Land Commissioner will be . . . one of the two guys who filed. The only question in the gov primary is if White and Perry will have run offs.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Media elite
If the Dallas Morning News & Houston Chronicle are now pillars of the media elite, well, I dare say we've rather lowered our standards.

But seriously, Gov. Goodhair is running for a fourth (4th!) term as governor as an outsider? Really? Really?!?   ...sigh.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Also!
Media elite alert! Hutchison also won the endorsement of the radical leftist elitists at the Lubbock Avalance-Journal, the Beaumont Enterprise, the Marshall News Messenger and the Wichita Falls Times Record News.

Man I hate Rick Perry.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
We call him "Governor 39%" for a very good reason.
And not just because that was what he won in 06, but ever since he has been constantly trumpeting that he has a mandate, when 61% of voters did not vote for him. Reminds me a little bit of his former "boss"...

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
And he has no more surplus to worry about.
http://www.dallasnews.com/shar...

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Point taken, but I actually think Medina's woes may be helping Hutchison
I'd like to see some more post-Glenn Beck polling on this, because my suspicion is this: those Medina supporters who are anti-Perry (and, in that PPP poll, listed Hutchison as their #2), will flood to Hutchison following the 9/11 comments. The Medina crowd who had Perry as their #2, on the other hand, are probably the secession-supporting, tea-party, birther types who won't necessarily flee Medina after her 9/11 crap. In addition, I actually think the newspaper endorsements probably help Hutchison with the more traditional, rank-and-file GOP crowd in Texas.

My current predictions here...

Perry - 49%
Hutchison - 39%
Medina - 12%

If such goes down and Perry's forced into a run-off, he'll only be able to take so much solace in his edging out Hutchison by ten points; the media will pounce on the guy for not managing to win his party's nod outright, not to mention question his ability to win in a general. For her part, Hutchison would have a full six week period to get her act together and figure out some strategy to keep Perry from the finish line. Still, I suspect Perry could better win-over those who stuck with Medina 'til the bitter end.

I think a Perry/Hutchison run-off would look something like...

Perry - 56%
Hutchison - 44%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]

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