IL-Gov: Quinn Leads Brady and Dillard in First Post-Primary Poll

Victory Research (2/4-7, likely voters)

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 42

Bill Brady (R): 31

Rich Whitney (G): 4

Undecided: 23

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 41

Kirk Dillard (R): 35

Rich Whitney (G): 3

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Here’s the first post-primary poll of the Illinois governor’s race, and it shows Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn in OK shape for re-election, suggesting that he may not have taken on quite as much water during the heated Democratic primary as might be feared. The poll is from Victory Research, a firm I’ve never heard of before; they claim this is an “independent” poll, although, interestingly, they’ve done work for both Quinn and Republican state Sen. Kirk Dillard in the past.

As you probably know, the GOP primary has yet to be decided, and probably won’t be for several months, which is why they poll two GOPers despite the primary being two weeks old. State Sen. Bill Brady has a 406-vote edge for now, and Quinn should root for Brady to prevail, based on the disparity between Brady and Dillard’s performances. The difference between Dillard and Brady, if you delve into the crosstabs, is entirely explicable by how the more moderate Dillard performs in the Chicago suburbs (where he’s from, as opposed to the socially conservative, Downstate Brady). Dillard wins with over 50% in the collar counties, while Quinn and Brady are in a dead heat in the collar counties (while, of course, Quinn cleans up in vote-heavy Cook County).

RaceTracker Wiki: IL-Gov

23 thoughts on “IL-Gov: Quinn Leads Brady and Dillard in First Post-Primary Poll”

  1. Looking into the crosstabs, Quinn isn’t where he needs to be with white voters even against Brady. It’s time for the DGA to step in and define Brady, NOW.  

  2. Also, seems to me the Repubs caught a break with IL’s primary election being held so ridiculously early in the year.

    Even if the loser between Brady/Dillard decides to demand a recount, it still likely will be settled in the spring.

    And that still makes it a typical length of time for them for a general election campaigning period that most states have holding their primaries in spring & summer.

    And gives the winner a good long time for intra-party fence-mending with the loser.

    But Quinn hopefully will make use of this time to help rehabilitate his image in a positive way while he’s waiting for an opponent. Too bad this poll didn’t have a favorable/unfavorable question.

  3. Polling against Brady, the likely candidate, better than Abercrombie in Hawaii or Brown in California.

    The results of republican primary are ridiculous. The weakness of the winner is evident.

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