Rick Perry (R-inc): 39
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 28
Debra Medina (R): 24
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.8%)
(Medina supporters only: who is your second choice?)
Rick Perry (R-inc): 43
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R): 39
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±9.7%)
Bill White (D): 49
Farouk Shami (D): 19
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±4.9%)
I don't think anyone was expecting this: PPP takes a look at the primary races in the Texas governor's race, and finds Debra Medina, the Paulist candidate who was something of a nobody before the debates, making a huge impact in the race. Not only is her presence almost certainly going to force a runoff now -- with Rick Perry unlikely to top 50% -- but it's now at least conceivable that she and not Kay Bailey Hutchison could be the one who makes it to the runoff with Perry. There must be a major freakout going on at KBH HQ today; this is all a bit reminiscent of what must have happened last month with the Martha Coakley camp, when the nice lady who'd been coasting for a while finally looked in the rear view mirror and realized that object was closer than it appeared.
What I find baffling, though, is how Medina supporters will split if she doesn't make it into the runoff. You'd think that Medina's right-wing followers would all pile into the Perry camp, given a choice between Perry's anti-Washington posturing and KBH's decades of insiderness. Nope: it's almost an even split, with a narrow edge to Perry... suggesting that Medina is tapping into a lot of generalized anti-Perry sentiment too, or maybe just that the voters have a really superficial understanding of the differences between the candidates. (Of course, now maybe the more interesting question we should be asking is: how would KBH supporters split if she didn't make it into the runoff?)
Finally, there's the little matter of the Democratic primary. Houston mayor Bill White isn't currently making it over the 50% mark against hair product magnate Farouk Shami, but he's almost there, with a sizable number of undecideds left to break.
