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FL-Sen: Rubio Opens Up Big Primary Lead

by: Crisitunity

Mon Feb 01, 2010 at 2:25 PM EST


Rasmussen (1/27, likely voters, 12/14 in parens)

Charlie Crist (R): 37 (43)
Marco Rubio (R): 49 (43)
Some other: 3 (5)
Not sure: 11 (9)
(MoE: ±5%)

Rasmussen (1/27, likely voters, 12/14 in parens)

Kendrick Meek (D): 33 (36)
Charlie Crist (R): 48 (42)
Some other: 10 (11)
Not sure: 9 (11)

Kendrick Meek (D): 32 (35)
Marco Rubio (R): 49 (49)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 13 (12)
(MoE: ±3%)

Wow, that's a steep trendline up for Marco Rubio and down for Charlie Crist in the Republican primary. This isn't the first time Rubio has led Crist (Quinnipiac gave Rubio a 47-44 lead last week, and Rasmussen had pegged the race at a tie last month), but, now down double digits, Crist has to be wondering what (if any) his options are. Cue even louder speculation about an indie bid or even a party switch -- especially in view of consistently underwhelming numbers from Kendrick Meek on the Dem side.

UPDATE: Now there are rumors floating around about a second poll giving Rubio a double-digit primary lead, 44-30. The poll was taken by Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio for "a group not involved in the Senate contest."

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-Sen
Crisitunity :: FL-Sen: Rubio Opens Up Big Primary Lead
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FL-Sen: Rubio Opens Up Big Primary Lead | 19 comments
When's the primary?
n/t
8/24
The filing deadline is 4/30.
[ Parent ]
any chance Meek can catch up?
or some other Democrat will enter the race (e.g. Betty Castor)? I really don't relish the thought of Senator Rubio.
Would they even want to run?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I love the smell of mid-afternoon cat fud.
Smells like... victory.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
why
is rubio doing better? Crist has a 56% job approval, so I guess it's because Rubio is telegenic?
Rubio v Crist
I'd like to see some Rubio vs Crist general numbers with Crist as a D.
Only R2K
has polled that permutation, and Crist (D) wins it 45-34. (Several months ago, so things may have changed since then.)
[ Parent ]
Meek's numbers sound like "Generic D"
I think Meek's numbers will grow as he becomes known statewide.
Crist
I assume Crist can't run as an indy after he loses the primary.  I personally hate the laws that don't allow a person to do this and I still don't like Lieberman.  I supported his right to run as an indy though.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

Florida has a sore-loser law
You can't run as an independent after losing the partisan primary.
[ Parent ]
So how bad is the FL economy?
Should I feel bad about Crist getting tea bagged or did the FL budget and economy turn to shit and that is what is bringing him down.

I ask because before, even while the numbers showed Crist obviously sweating over Rubio, he was still pounding Meek and a Rubio/Meek match-up was a toss-up.

I guess my question is, why is Crist going down in the GE polling while Rubio is going up in the GE polling.  I can see why the GOP primary numbers are shaking out but the GE numbers, I do not get.

It's a perfect storm...
Unemployment is high, tons of foreclosures, home values dropping like a rock, Obama's popularity is sinking, moderates are getting pounded by conservative rhetoric, Crist waffling on his support for Obama -- which makes him look like a typical politician,etc.

Nothing has gone right for Crist in nearly a year.  Of course he is dropping like a rock.  The Rubio-Meek numbers are simply a factor of Rubio become more known, and more importantly, the national environment turning against the Dems.

There's nothing mysterious going on.      

[ Parent ]
Here is the other FL GOP Primary Poll
Hadn't heard this reported elsewhere
But I just read that Crist was spotted having dinner with Joe Biden in Miami last week.

Isn't this how it started with Specter?

Male, 23, DC-At Large

Hadn't heard this reported elsewhere
But I just read that Crist was spotted having dinner with Joe Biden in Miami last week.

Isn't this how it started with Specter?

Male, 23, DC-At Large

Previously
I had been of the belief that Crist would run as an independent and probably win the race in a three way.  But with his popularity starting to sag and Rubio surging like he is, I'm starting to think that Crist is going to need the powerful Democratic base along with his following of moderates to win this election.  

I'm reversing course, I'm now calling for Crist to switch parties and become a Democrat, because it's the only way he's going to win.  And not surprisingly, it's the only way that Democrats pick up this seat as well.  

Just think, we might lose in Colorado, Delaware, and North Dakota, but if we could counterbalance that by taking BOTH of the Senate seats in Florida with a Crist switch, and by taking BOTH Senate seats in Ohio and Missouri, where arguably our slate of candidates Carnahan/Fisher/Brunner is superior to theirs Blunt/Portman, THAT would be a nice tradeoff.  If we were to hold Pennsylvania along with that, we'd be in almost complete lockdown of the swing states.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

Don't forget Arkansas
I think that's worse for us than Colorado.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
oh and Nevada
n/t

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
FL-Sen: Rubio Opens Up Big Primary Lead | 19 comments

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