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Illinois Primary Preview

by: DavidNYC

Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 7:27 PM EST


The 2010 primary season kicks off on Tuesday in Illinois. In 2008, the state moved its presidential primary to the new super-early "Super Tuesday," and also moved its regular primaries, which used to be in March, up as well. They haven't been moved back for the midterm elections, so Illinois gets play New Hampshire and host the "first-in-the-nation" primaries this year. (For a complete, sortable calendar of 2010 primaries, click here.) Below is a roundup of some of the key races to watch for:

  • IL-Sen (D): Democrats have a three-way race to nominate a successor to Barack Obama (well, technically, to Roland Burris's mausoleum). State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias leads in the polls, but his numbers are only in the 30s. It's possible that a late surge by former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman (or, somewhat less likely, Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson) could up-end this race. Giannoulias is getting pounded for his family's involvement in a failed bank - a particularly toxic piece of baggage in this environment. A recent Rasmussen poll had him up 31-23 over Hoffman (Jackson was back at 13), so an upset is within the realm of possibility.

  • IL-Sen (R): The Republican contest is, sadly, much less interesting. "Moderate" Rep. Mark Kirk compiled a voting record over the years which ought to enrage any full-blooded teabagger, but he successfully pirouetted to his right during the primary. This seems to have kept real estate developer and wingnut Patrick Hughes from gaining any traction - polls show Kirk cruising. The real question at this point is whether Kirk's rightward shift will come back to haunt him in the general.

  • IL-Gov (D): Last summer, when state Comptroller Dan Hynes decided to challenge incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn in the primary, it seemed like a weird choice. Quinn had just ascended to office in the wake of Rod Blagojevich's impeachment and seemed pretty popular. And as the year chugged along, polls kept showing Quinn with healthy leads. But Hynes turned the volume way up over the last couple of months, going sharply negative on Quinn on a range of issues, including crime. Now polls have the race a tossup, though Hynes is almost certainly peaking at the right time and could very well knock off a sitting governor. That'll be one hell of a long lame-duck period. Ouch.

  • IL-Gov (R): The GOP nomination is truly up for grabs - at least four guys probably have a legit shot at the nod (take a look at the crazy Pollster.com graph). Former state AG Jim Ryan was the early favorite, but he seemed to be relying heavily on name recognition. That's given former state GOP chair Andy McKenna a chance to raise his profile via a massive TV ad campaign, and it looks like he may have the late mo'. Kirk Dillard and Billy Brady probably have a chance to sneak through as well.

  • IL-08 (R): Six different Republicans are vying to challenge Dem Rep. Melissa Bean. Despite the seemingly favorable environment for GOPers, no one of any stature wound up getting into this race, probably because of how handily Bean dispatched well-funded opponents in both 2006 and 2008. With any luck, this won't be a race to watch come November.

  • IL-10 (D): Mark Kirk's swingy suburban Chicago district is the only open seat in Illinois this cycle (so far), and it's attracted a lot of interest on both sides. Marketing consultant Dan Seals, the Dem nominee in 2006 and 2008, has the edge in name rec, but he lost to Kirk twice, in back-to-back strong Dem cycles. Rep. Julie Hamos might therefore have an opening, if 10th District Dems want to give a new face a shot. In a possible sign of Seals fatigue, Hamos has outraised him 2-to-1 (a mil to about half a mil). Still, the only released poll of this race was a Seals internal which gave him a 50-point lead. Don't scoff: He won his last primary, against the well-funded Jay Footlik, by about 60 points.

  • IL-10 (R): The race to be the next Mark Kirk has come down to state Rep. Beth Coulson, businessman Bob Dold and another businessman, Dick Green. (I love that super-vague epithet, "businessman.") Coulson's moderate profile seemed to make her a good fit to inherit Kirk's mantle, but Dold has raised a lot of money and seems to be exciting conservatives. Green has also spent a lot, but it's mostly been his own campaign cash. There haven't been any polls of this race, so to me the question is whether Coulson will get Scozzafava'ed, or will Green and Dold split the winger vote and let her escape? We'll see soon enough.

  • IL-11 (R): Iraq veteran Adam Kinzinger was annointed by the establishment early on as the favorite to take on freshmen Dem Rep. Debbie Halvorson, and that predictably means outsider conservatives have been gunning for him. Still, his opponents in the primary are a joke - Kinzinger's raised some $400K, his nearest competitor, $1K. I'll be curious about his final tally at the polls, though, just to see how warmly (or coldly) the teabaggers really do feel about him.

  • IL-14 (R): The Republicans are hard at work smashing each other on the head in the battle to take on Dem Rep. Bill Foster. Foster, as you'll recall, snatched this seat in a special election two years ago. It was held by none other than former Republican Speaker of the House Denny Haster, whose son Ethan is one of two contenders trying to win this district back for the GOP. The other is state Sen. Randy Hultgren, who is more or less running as "not-Hastert" (several other candidates dropped out in favor of Hultgren so that the anti-Hastert vote would not get split). The campaign has turned extremely nasty: Hultgren was recently forced to launch an apologetic robocall after he sent out a mailer accusing Hastert of supporting human trafficking. Dems are hoping for a repeat of 2008, where a vicious GOP primary ultimately helped Foster at the polls. (This year, though, there's a lot more time for wounds to heal before the general.)

There are, of course, plenty of other primaries at all levels taking place in Illinois on Tuesday. If you know of any other interesting races, please let us know in comments.

DavidNYC :: Illinois Primary Preview
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IL-10
I feel as though the worst possible permutation for us is Seals vs Coulson - if that is the matchup, I think the R's have a great shot at a retention.  

If Coulson goes down, or if Hamos wins, their odds drop quite a bit, and the D's have a better shot at a pickup.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


Coulson's weakness seems to be fundraising
She's only raised $200k for the primary. IL-10, being in the Chicago media market, is an expensive district to run in. I don't know that her moderate profile is enough to win, especially if she's up against Julie Hamos, who has already blown past $1 million.

[ Parent ]
Agree completely
Probably - Coulson vs Seals is the only Republican chance in November. Though, as some people noted here, Coulson isn't a good fundraiser...

[ Parent ]
Cook County Board President...
is another race I'm watching, at least on the Democratic side. Cook County with Chicago and its suburbs - at 5 million residents - is the second largest county only to Los Angeles; 43% of Illinois lives in it.

There are 4 candidates; the incumbent Todd Stroger is thoroughly despised all around, with an approval rating last seen in the tweens - he came into office under questionable circumstances - his father won the Democratic primary and then passed away suddenly; Todd was appointed onto the ballot by party leaders. He also pushed through a highly unpopular sales tax increase, which leaves the sales tax in suburban Cook at 10% and at 10.25% in the city; he's also vetoed at least twice attempts to repeal the sales tax hike.

Dorothy Brown is the Cook County Circuit Court Clerk (alliteration much?) who's come under fire recently for various practices she instituted in her office. Toni Preckwinkle is the alderman from the 4th ward (Hyde Park, Kenwood) of Chicago and a close ally of President Obama who sometimes spars with Mayor Daley. Stronger, Brown, and Preckwinkle are all African-American; there is one white candidate, Terrence O'Brien, who was Chairman of the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District (the what?), that apparently has jurisdiction over 98% of county residents.

Stroger's been lagging in the polls consistently, while Brown was doing well and Preckwinkle has been surging. I'm guessing Preckwinkle will win, trailed closely behind by Brown, with O'Brien third and Stroger a distant fourth.

It'll be interesting to see how the sizable black vote in the Democratic primary breaks down. Anecdotally, at least in majority-black West Evanston, literally every yard on the block I walked down had a Dorothy Brown sign.

A lot of 'lakefront liberals' are supporting Preckwinkle, and I think she'll do well in the high-income Democratic areas of the county like the North Shore as well as her base in the 4th ward - she has that Obama-esque post-racial appeal going for her. Terry O'Brien, seems to me extraordinarily stiff and uncharismatic, but his tenure on the MWRD hasn't been controversial and he should do well on the Southwest and Northwest Sides - areas with many working-class whites. I'm guessing Stroger and Brown will split the votes on the South and West sides.

The only questionable areas, it seems to me, is how the more Republican-leaning Northwest Suburbs will vote. Illinois has an open primary, so it's not inconceivable that Republicans will cross over to vote out Stroger.


How are the candidates on the issues?
Roughly, who is the most progressive of the four?

[ Parent ]
Preckwinkle
This has been simple answers to simple questions.

[ Parent ]
I'm not registered to vote in IL
but as a Hyde Park resident (albeit not a constituent) I am personally rooting for her :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Majority-black areas
Outside the Garfield Red Line stop a week ago (aka one of the blackest parts of the city), there were a TON of Stroger signs. I doubt residents of the neighborhood planted them there to show their support, but I am afraid that low-info voters will see those signs and vote based on name recognition alone. sigh.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Some clarification on the Cook County Pres race
Todd Stroger's father, County Board President John Stroger, suffered a stroke one week before the 2006 Democratic Primary.  However, he did not die for a couple of years (although he never recovered or was seen in public again).  After John Stroger narrowly won the primary (thanks to sympathy votes from the African-American community and a lot of BS about him coming back to work within a few weeks) the electorate was strung along about how sick he was until the deadline for a third-party candidacy has passed.  It was only then that was announced that Stroger would be resigning form the November ticket, with Todd thrust into his place on the ballot.

I had the dubious honor of sitting behind Todd Stroger in a county office for nearly two years in the early 1990s.  I can say without reservation that Todd Stroger makes George W. Bush seem like Albert Einstein.  Enough said.

The controversy involving Dorothy Brown entails a "Jeans Fund," where Court Clerk workers pay in to be allowed to wear jeans to work on Fridays (there has been no accounting of the money).

Terry O'Brien is the President of the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District, the 4th-largest taxing body in Illinois (behind the state government, City of Chicago and Cook County).  The MWRD treats waste-water (it was founded over a century ago when the Chicago River's flow was reversed, allowing the city to get fresh drinking water from Lake Michigan while dumping its waste-water down toward the Mississippi River) and works to protect our water from pollution and flooding.  O'Brien is generally considered to be an old-style Irish pol who thought that by running against three black candidates he could waltz to victory like it was still 1960.

Toni Preckwinkle is President Obama's alderman.  To O'Brien's chagrin, she has won solid support among white lakefront and suburban voters.  She is the only one of the four candidates who has basicly refrained from negative advertising.  She should easily win on Tuesday, which will make the race for the Republican nomination a moot point.  No Republican has won this office since 1966, although in protest to the way Todd Stroger was placed on the ballot, voters nearly elected Republican County Comm. Tony Peraica, who only lost was just over 90,000 votes (compared to the more than 900,000-vote margin Attorney General Lisa Madigan had over her hapless Republican opponent among Cook County voters).

By the way, I am proud to support Ald. Toni Preckwinkle for Cook County Board President.


[ Parent ]
How's Hamos on the issues?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Pretty good.
She's a protege of Jan Schakowsky; I don't know if that's a good or bad thing for you but it's a good thing for me. I worked my butt off to get Seals elected in 2006 and 2008; I was disappointed with both election results, but the second time the campaign made a ton of mistakes that they shouldn't have. That's why I voted for Hamos; although Seals has raised $500K so far (enough to compete with any of the GOP candidates), I don't trust this seat to fall in our hands if he's the nominee. We'll have a lot less worrying if Hamos is the nominee IMO.  

[ Parent ]
That's an excellent thing for me.
Electing another progressive would be a great thing.  It's nice to know there is evidence of one here.  And things for the inside view of the Seals campaign.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Comptroller
I am hoping that Raja guy wins it. I looked up all of the candidates and I liked him the best. I am not sure who I like for LG, any ideas?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Yeah I voted for him.
definitely has the best credentials of all the candidates and was endorsed by some papers.  

[ Parent ]
Does Illinois have runoffs?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Nope. Plurality wins.
Best example I can think of the 2002 Dem Gubernatorial Primary, when Rod Blagojevich scraped together 37% against Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and the one and only Roland Burris.

[ Parent ]
That's disgusting.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Or the 1992 U.S. Senate Primary
Where incumbent Alan Dixon was unseated, as follows:

Carol Mosely-Braun 38%
Alan Dixon 35%
Albert Hofeld 18%


[ Parent ]
and we all know how that turned out


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah.
We ended up with Roland Burris in that seat. :)

[ Parent ]
Apart from weird local stuff
Like NYC citywide races, the only states which have runoffs are southern states.

[ Parent ]
Thanks.
For once, the South has a good idea (even if the reported historical reasons for it were in very bad faith).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
And South Dakota of all places
Anyone know why they decided to adopt it?

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Interested about Giannoulias and Hynes successors

And I see low information about the races for state Treasurer and state Comptroller in Illinois.


Raja Krishnamoorthi
is running for comptroller against some woman, I believe. I hear Krishnamoorthi has a good shot. He was policy director for Obama's senate campaign and has some other experience in state politics.

22, male, VA-10

[ Parent ]
All three Dems running for IL Comptroller...
...are men.  In addition to Raja Krishnamoorthi, the other candidates are State Rep. David Miller (an African-American dentist from Chicago's southern suburbs) and Clint Krislov (who has unsuccessfully sought elected office a number of times in the past).

[ Parent ]
What's with the "so far" comment in the IL-10 write-up?
Obviously no one else is going to retire. The filing deadline has passed.

People bail after filing deadlines
All the time, including in Illinois. In fact, that's how Bill Lipinski scummily engineered the installation of his son Dan without a primary. It also happened again in 2006, albeit in very understandable circumstances, when Lane Evans, who was battling Parkinson's, retired after the primary.

So that's twice in Illinois in recent cycles that people have bailed after the filing deadline.


[ Parent ]
Does this happen regularly at the lower levels?
Or is it just these two recent Congressional cases?

[ Parent ]
yes
last cycle, no GOP candidates filed to run in five Democratic-held Congressional districts; the party filled all but one in this matter.

[ Parent ]
In 2008 the Republican nominee in IL-11 bailed soon after the primary
New Lennox Mayor Tim Baldermann left and the GOP chose Marty Ozinga to replace him.  So it's happened in each of the last three cycles for unrelated reasons.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Fair enough
I retract my snark

[ Parent ]
In Illinois, the party can appoint a replacement candidate if the nominee withdraws post-primary
It has led to the election of at least two Congressmen in recent years. Bill Lipinski pulled out in August of 2004, essentially handing the seat to his son Dan Lipinski. And in 2006, Lane Evans pulled out a month after the primary, I think because his Parkinson's got to the point where he was unable to perform his duties. That led to his longtime aide Phil Hare being nominated and winning.

[ Parent ]
This is what I love about SSP
People from Virginia (IIRC) knowing about Illinois election laws and examples of the effects of said laws.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I love SSP
because I don't have to hide the fact that I'm political junkie.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
A candidate gets two shots.
Seals came up short both times. Let's pray for Hamos to pull an upset.

Try telling that to Mike Sodrel


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Or Ted Strickland
That said, I'm in Team Hamos.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Well, there is a major difference this year, though.
The seat is open instead of with an ostenible moderate incumbent.  I think that should count for something.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
nope Tyler
Seals is the better bet and yes i volunteered for him in 2008. Hamos's bas is New Trier and yet the New Trier Dems endorsed Seals. Hamos is a fundraising machine but post primary either of them will be.

Coulson wins the primary we have a race on our hands. Dold is looking better for the GOP but i think he is just too conservative for the district. Green - not gonna win.  

2010 Race Tracker Wiki


[ Parent ]
Bob Dold or Dick Green
The only really bad scenario is Coulson winning.  If either Dold or Green wins the primary and the general at least we can be amused by their names...

For fun
checked out Coulson's website, Boy she really is taking a page out of Mark Kirk's "run to the right" playbook, though her two GOP opponents dont seem that poised to win anyways. I dont care if its Hamos or Seals, as long as it isn't Coulson.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
Does Bob Dold
call himself "Bob Dold"?

[ Parent ]
I quickly looked over some of the other statewide offices
Lt. Governor:
On the Democratic side, State Senator Art Turner received the endorsement of both of the major Chicago papers. There are a lot of other candidates with the biggest probably being State Senator Terry Link.
For the Republicans, the Tribune endorsed State Senator Matt Murphy while the Sun Times picked Carbondale mayor Brad Cole. This primary also has a lot of other "some guy" type candidates.

Comptroller:
The front runner for the Democratic nod is Raja Krishnamoorthi who is also in the running for hardest to pronounce candidate name this cycle. He has the endorsement of both the Chicago papers. He faces ex-candidate Clint Krislov.
The Republicans have a blast from the recent past in Judy Baar Topinka, she was the state's treasurer, ran for governor in 2006, and then took a turn as the head of the state Republican party. Two other guys, Bill Kelly and Jim Dodge are also running.

Treasurer:
Ex-state rep. and current Giannoulias chief of staff, Robin Kelly looks to have a solid edge over aviation security consult Justin Olbermann for the Democratic nod.
State Senator Dan Rutherford is the only Republican running and based on his website, http://www.danrutherford.org/ I'm thinking Robin Kelly will probably be the next Treasurer.


dems for comptroller and treasurer can win the election?

I see so strong republican candidates.

[ Parent ]
Agree for comptroller disagree for treasurer
Topinka is definitely a strong candidate for comptroller, but the the State Senator the GOP has for treasurer has pictures of Karl Rove and Sarah Palin on his campaign site homepage. I just don't think that will work that well in a state like Illinois. Then again, I have no idea what the fundraising numbers are looking like, so maybe he has loads of money which would help.  

[ Parent ]
He has way more
money than either Dem.  Also appears to self-fund.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
ohh now i see
Thanks for the info, no wonder the primary field against him is empty.  

[ Parent ]
WTF
Brad Cole used to be a democrat. When did he switch parties?
As for the LG candidates, I remember someone saying that both of the state senators on the dem side are known for being corrupt, don't know for sure though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
6 Repubs against Bean is a lot
but I heard that two more Republicans may be entering the race in IA-03. That would make seven GOPers trying to beat Leonard Boswell. I've never heard of these two guys, but apparently they were circulating nominating petitions at the off-year caucuses on January 23.

I assume Brad Zaun and Jim Gibbons will dominate the GOP primary in IA-03, but with so many candidates in the race it's possible no one would get 35 percent, which would force the nomination to be decided at a district convention. Then we see who was better at getting supporters elected as convention delegates.


This'll show the strength of the Teabaggers
NY-23 wasn't a normal test, as the attention of the country was focused on it for a month, allowing Hoffman the oxygen to rise, whilst MA-Sen wasn't really about the influence of Teabaggers, it was about Democrats losing the blue-collar vote and suffering on enthusiasm.

The Illinois ones are more interesting, because they're more local. Therefore the answers to the following questions will have a lot of input as to how the 2010 campaign plays out:

IL-Sen: Does Kirk get 70%? I assume nobody's filed to run as an independent to his right, but if they have and Kirk's victory isn't as comprehensive as it should be, then that's a lot of votes gone to the lunatic fringe. Even if not, it's possible around a quarter of the refuseniks might abstain in the general, which can only help.

IL-Gov: If Ryan wins, that shows Teabaggers don't have a constituency without intensive mobilisation. I'm not sure who has the teabaggers support here - surely McKenna is too establishment? - but unless somebody wins with 40% there's not much we'll be able to say with certainty. So I'm backing Andrzejewski, purely to see what puns SSP comes up with for the name.

IL-10: If Coulson wins convincingly, it'll show even more than IL-Gov that just because you've built it, that doesn't mean they'll come and teabag it. You have to encourage them first.

IL-11: Here, on the other hand, we'll just see how the teabaggers feel about the military. What do you reckon the odds are they'll call him a communist by November?

IL-14: Where do teabaggers come down on this one? It'll tell you a lot about how ethical issues will play out.


If some of you can stifle your gag reflex
A really good place to go to find out whom the wingnuts are backing is Red State. They are really pushing Andrzejewski hard right now, so it will be interesting to see how that and support of other like minds translates into support. (I don't think the guy was showing up on any polls of Republican primary voters, although he has the support of Lech Walesa, oddly enough).

On the other hand, that's how I could tell Pat Hughes wasn't going to do well against Kirk. Erickson gave him a tepid endorsement last month, but has done virtually nothing to push his candidacy since then.  


[ Parent ]
He also met with Jim Demint
and the head of the far out right did not endorse him. This is from a guy who has endorsed Rubio, Toomey, and Devore. So that combined with his pitiful fund raising numbers was when I knew he stood zero chance of pulling the upset.  

[ Parent ]
Kirk Dillard
has suspended his campaign after his father died.

Raja Krishnamoorthi's campaign to be comptroller should be interesting too.

22, male, VA-10


Weather
Here on the South Side it's around 30 (which is warm for this time of year...) with intermittent but light snow. Should be no turnout issues in this neck of the woods.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Very low turnout from what I understand
Where are all the Teabaggers?

[ Parent ]

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