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IA-Sen: Conlin (D) releases fundraising numbers (UPDATE: new Rasmussen poll)

by: desmoinesdem

Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 11:15 AM EST


Roxanne Conlin's campaign for U.S. Senate released partial fundraising numbers yesterday, and they are impressive:

Total cash raised (Nov. 2 - Dec. 31):
$603,575.44

Cash on hand:
$502,832.84

Total individual donors:  1,649 (1,395 Iowans/85% Iowans)
Online supporters signed up:  Over 31,000
Donations $100 and under: 1,332
Donations $250 and under: 1,433

desmoinesdem :: IA-Sen: Conlin (D) releases fundraising numbers (UPDATE: new Rasmussen poll)
All of Conlin's campaign contributions came from individual supporters, because she has pledged not to accept contributions from federal lobbyists or PACs. (I wouldn't have advised her to take that stance, because there are PACs and lobbyists fighting for good things as well as those working against the public interest.) In any event, she has shown that she can raise enough money to staff and run a statewide campaign. Conlin is about a third of the way through a 99-county tour she began earlier this month.

I haven't seen year-end fundraising numbers from Senator Chuck Grassley yet. At the end of the third quarter of 2009, he had more than $4.4 million cash on hand, so clearly he will still be way ahead in the money race. During the third quarter, when Grassley played a high-profile role in health care reform negotiations, he raised $864,622 total, of which $364,295 came from political action committees.

In other words, Conlin raised more from individual donors in two months than Grassley raised from individuals during the third quarter. That's a strong pace, and it suggests a lot of Iowans are motivated to take the fight to Grassley. Conlin has already raised nearly five times as much as Democrat Art Small spent during his entire 2004 campaign against Iowa's senior senator.

I don't have new fundraising numbers from the other Democrats running against Grassley. Bob Krause raised $7,430 during the third quarter, ending with $3,493 on hand. Tom Fiegen raised $3,781 during the third quarter, ending with $519 on hand. I like many of the statements I've heard from Krause and Fiegen, but they have yet to show that they will be able to run a statewide campaign, and therefore appear to be extreme underdogs leading up to the Democratic primary in June. Neither Krause nor Fiegen seems likely to drop out of this race, however. On the contrary, Fiegen called on Conlin to quit the race last month, saying Republican attacks on her would divert attention from Grassley and the "needs of working families." Yesterday Krause criticized one of Conlin's tax credit proposals.

Grassley will be very tough to beat. His approval rating has fallen but is still above 50 percent, and he has set a goal of raising $9 million for this race. Even if Democrats don't manage to defeat Grassley, giving him a spirited challenge is well worth the effort. Driving up turnout among Democrats whom Grassley has alienated can only help our candidates down-ticket.

UPDATE: Rasmussen conducted a one-day poll of this race on January 26. Grassley leads Conlin 59 to 31, Krause 59 to 26 and Fiegen 61 to 25 (margin of error 4.5 percent).

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I think a spirited campaign is the best that can be hoped
Conlin's numbers are good, but I still have concerns about her as a candidate and I think Grassley is still too popular to lose at this point. Fundraising is important, but it's not everything. (I also think it doesn't help that HCR has increasingly lost popularity - Grassley's reaction against it may not be the negative it was a couple of months ago).

Still, I do get your point. Even if Conlin doesn't win, she could help Culver and some of the other downticket Dems.


I see Conlin's main purposes as
to help other Dems, as you said, but also to be at the ready if Grassley makes a gaffe or is found to be secretly dating an Argentinian woman or tapping his foot in the Minneapolis airport bathroom.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
The gaffe idea is not out of the realm of possibility...
I think he's already made at least one with the "death panels" comment. That was the comment that really drove a lot of Dems away.  

[ Parent ]
I agree with the SSP rating for this race
Likely Republican for now. It's just nice to see Iowa Democrats not giving Grassley a total pass like they have the last few cycles. In 2004 I remember some people suggesting that we might be better off with no candidate in this race, so as not to inspire Republicans to turn out for Grassley.

[ Parent ]
Poor Art Small
Tom Miller or Fitzgerald could have run, the cowards LOL.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


[ Parent ]
The problem with that thinking is...
...2004 was a Presidential year, and both nationally and in Iowa it was a tossup going in.  Grassley having a serious opponent wasn't going to get anyone to vote who didn't vote anyway.

And the same basic principle applies this fall, with the Republicans surely hungry to win the Governorship after a record 12 straight years of Democratic rule, and the last several years with one-party Democratic rule with our side controlling both chambers of the legislature.  So Conlin's not going to turn out anyway new without a weird scenario where Culver is winning comfortably but Conlin is making it close--and that's a pro-Democratic wave scenario, NOT something we'll see this November.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
disagree
A lot of Iowa Democrats don't like Culver but like Conlin. She has the potential to get a bunch of activists involved in GOTV who wouldn't bother to volunteer for Culver's campaign. Also, if she helps drive up Democratic women's turnout, that will be very good for us down-ticket in the statehouse races.

[ Parent ]
I'm a bit skeptical of your points......
GOTV doesn't get you much, at most it moves up to maybe 3 points, and that only if the opposition's GOTV is awful (see Obama-McCain for that example, which won't be repeated in IA 2010).  Hey, I knock on doors myself, for everything from Obama to my local Delegate to the Virginia House (who lost :-().  And I have no doubt I've turned a few votes that way in the past couple Virginia cycles (which are EVERY year).  And I'll keep doing it, it's worthwhile.  But only in a razor-tight race does it make a difference between winning and losing.

And as much as I'd like to believe Conlin's candidacy drives up volunteer activity and the base Democratic female vote, I'm just not very persuaded of it.  I shared the same hope early on, but upon further thought, there are really not very many people who remember Conlin.  She hasn't been on a ballot in 28 years, that's a helluva long time.  Virtually no one under 50 has ever seen her name on a ballot or has any idea who she is......I turn 42 in February, and I was too young to vote for her the last time, as Branstad was running for his first reelection when I voted the first time at 18.  And the only time since then she was in the news was for drunk driving in the late 80s or in the 90s, can't remember exactly when.

On top of that, female voters, even base Democratic female voters, don't coalesce around female candidates very readily.  Even many liberal Democratic women completely ignore a candidate's gender in deciding for whom to vote.  I think there has to be some sort of particular personal attraction for women to coalesce around a female candidate, and I doubt Conlin has that attraction after such a long absence from politics.

I remember Conlin because I'm a political junkie, but honestly the more I think about it, the less a draw I think Conlin really is for women or other base Democrats.

All that said, I still think Conlin has the chops to hold Grassley under 60%.  But it could be only barely under 60, where he still winds up winning by a comfortable 59-41 margin.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
in an off-year election
I wouldn't be surprised if more than half the Iowa voters will be over 50.

If Culver were beloved by Iowa Democrats, we wouldn't be having this conversation, because his campaign would be energizing the GOTV effort. But that's not happening.

I think the best thing about having a high-profile candidate against Grassley is the potential to increase the straight-ticket D voting. Federal races are at the top of the ballot. An extra 5 or 10 percent marking straight D would be huge for our Iowa House and Senate candidates. In 2008 we lost some close races because of the drop-off between Obama and the down-ticket candidates. When someone marks the straight-ticket line, drop-off is no longer an issue.

Holding the Iowa legislature is imperative, especially if Culver isn't able to beat Branstad.


[ Parent ]
Agree, gotta hold the legislature. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]

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