Rokita is not

so well-known even to political geeks like me. Any information about his political views? I suupose - conservative (as almost all Republican candidates from Indiana are), but "which conservative"? Lugar's type is one thing, Hostettler's or Pence's style - quite another.

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by: smoltchanov @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 08:53:19 AM UTC

No it

scares me because he has always stated he is a moderate. So if he can get through the primary he would be a strong candidate. He would do better among independents than Hostettler would, and honestly if he runs as a moderate Dick Lugar type republican than he may get some of the angry liberal vote, although he may have trouble getting the tea baggers out to vote. However he may have to change his views if he wants to win the primary. There is one gaffe that Rokita did, which was when asked why African Americans tend to vote for democrats he said well now I do not get those statistics there, who is the master and slave in that relationship? Not funny at all if you ask me, however I think it means there is the possibility he could put his foot in his mouth, you never know.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 12:30:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He also played a huge role in getting our draconian Voter ID law passed.

So between those two things, he should be pretty much dead to the black population - not that they vote in GOP primaries in appreciable numbers anyway. There was also his strangely timed "gaffe" a couple of months ago when he said that he was in favor of nonpartisan redistricting, which pissed off a lot of Republicans who want to screw Baron Hill, and which could easily come back to haunt him in a primary.  

I get the sense that Rokita is weak and unknown enough that if he succeeded in getting through the primary (unlikely, but Hostettler and Stutzman will split the crazy vote, so it's still possible) and knocking off Bayh (even less likely), he'd probably be a one-term Senator. If Bayh loses to any of the guys in the race right now (or to Rokita), it'll be primarily about what Bayh did wrong rather than what the GOP did right, kinda like Peterson/Ballard for Indy Mayor back in 2007. (Peterson, incidentally, was once Bayh's chief of staff, which is where he got his smug contempt for the people who elected him from.)

I strongly dislike Rokita because of the voter ID thing, but he's at least less objectionable than Pence, mostly because he's got a mushy base and is much more prone to alienating everyone whenever he opens his mouth.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 12:54:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks!

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by: smoltchanov @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 13:55:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

IN

This could end up being a huge problem if he runs and it's a tight race.  Bayh never needs help from the committees so if we need to spend money to save him that is going to kill us elsewhere.

29/D/Male/NY-01

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by: Tekzilla @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 13:58:43 PM UTC

He has plenty money

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 14:05:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The man has $13 million in his account

He squirreled away money for a 2008 presidential run that never materialized. Even if Rokita runs, there is no way in hell Bayh will be outspent.

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by: NCDem @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 14:11:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think

that Reid is proving that it doesn't matter how much money you have in the bank, you can still get beat. I think that if a republican ran a good campaign they could unseat Bayh. However it would be an uphill battle for sure.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 14:21:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Again

Chalk and cheese. Reid's troubles are all about his personal ratings.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 14:22:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bayh

is pretty popular in Indiana right? He looks like a good fit for the state and he and Lugar have a good working relationship with each other.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 14:22:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He was...

I don't know if he "is" still popular.  Ben Nelson just dropped big time in his approval ratings, and so has other moderate Dems.  I don't know if Bayh's popularity has taken a plunge recently.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 14:27:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not

Ben Nelson is not a moderate Democrat.  He has the most extremely "conservative" rating of any Senate Democrat.  In some ways, Ben Nelson is a member of a small party consisting of himself and the two Maine ladies.

Combining moderate and Democrat makes it sound like Nelson is in the middle of the party.  Far from it.  He;s actually to the right of center for both the Senate as a whole and the US population as a whole.

If we lose in 2010 and 2012, Ben Nelson will have played a larger role in the debacle than any other Democratic legislator.  We needed bold action for regular people not more half-baked corporate sell outs.

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 15:16:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nelson IS moderate

by general political standards, but not by standards of both major political parties. The reason - complete absence of really centrist political party in US. The more i observe American politics - the more left-wing becomes Democratic party and it's activists (can anyone here to imagine that 30-40 years ago there was such Democratic politicians as Larry McDonald and such Republican as jacob Javits, and they were not alone (though a rarity even there)?) and more right-wing - Republican and it's activists. The political polarization is at highest level in, probably. 80-100 years, while 35-40% of Americans, calling themselves "moderates", are not especially welcome in both parties and doesn't have their own...

Nelson and "Maine ladies" are perfect moderates, but first seems to be a "very conservative" by Democratic standards, while "ladies" - "ultraliberal", almost "communist" - by prevailing Republican standards.

If that tendency will continue - sooner or later a big centrist pary will appear in US - just like in many European countries. And "Ben Nelsons", "Olympia Snowes" and "Susan Collinses" of that future will have their proper place in that party ))))

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by: smoltchanov @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 16:55:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nelson is a moderate Democrat

Just like Snowe and Collins are moderate Republicans.  The Democratic party is a center-left party, and just because you are not a center-left yourself doesn't mean you can't be a moderate.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 18:59:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We use English here

"Moderate" is relative to the entire spectrum.

Snowe is not a "far left Republican" or Collins a "left wing Republican".

Nelson is a moderate Democrat.  He is on the right end of the party spectrum, but he is a moderate regardless of his party label.

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by: tommypaine @ Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 01:43:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly

But we must make adjustment for very different point of views of those, who gives "estimates". For some left-wingers in Democratic party even Pelosi and Barney Frank are "conservatives", while for some right-wing Republicans even John McCain and Lindsey Graham are "almost socialists"))))

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by: smoltchanov @ Fri Jan 29, 2010 at 07:40:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was hanging

in the Democrats AIM chatroom, first time in my life someone called Boxer a "corporate puppet."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Sat Jan 30, 2010 at 06:23:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And that's

very liberal Barbara Boxer, who is anything, but "puppet"))))

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by: smoltchanov @ Sat Jan 30, 2010 at 17:12:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I heard

someone call Chris Mathews a far right wing loon.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Sun Jan 31, 2010 at 16:08:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

True

I haven't seen his approval rating recently, it's likely to have a taken a hit lately. Just look at Kay Hagan's 29/42 in NC, a state about as red as Indiana. Rokita would have to run a pretty tight campaign to make this competitive, Bayh's a good campaigner and an excellent fundraiser. It'll be a tough climb for the GOP, even in an anti-incumbant, republican wave election.

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by: Ireland @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 16:30:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bayh has been around for a couple decades

Hagan is newly elected. No way he has dropped anything like that.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 16:39:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He is, but ...

By all indications, Evan is popular, but I think it's a popularity that is POTENTIALLY paper-thin.  He's a centrist and a careful politician, and those things have served him well.  He hasn't had a serious challenger since the first time he ran for governor.

His problem is that no one really is passionate about supporting him.  Pence would have had passionate support from conservatives.  Hostettler will have passionate support from the lunatic fringe.  But no one, left or right, really has any strong feelings about Evan Bayh.  For example, I'll vote for him, I might even do campaign work for him if it looks like a potentially close election, but I'm not going to get excited about it at all.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 14:36:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is the way I feel as well

I have never been a huge Bayh fan, and honestly I wish he was more like his dad.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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by: hoosierdem @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 14:55:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, but

unfortunately his dad was from a different era, where pretty liberal senators could be elected from pretty conservative states as long as they took care of home -- Birth Bayh, George McGovern, Frank Church, etc -- and it's not suprising that they all lost in 1980.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Thu Jan 28, 2010 at 16:52:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]