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Online Pollster YouGov Releases a Bazillion Senate Polls

by: DavidNYC

Wed Jan 27, 2010 at 10:14 AM EST


YouGovPolimetrix just released a metric ton of senate polls. Be very, very warned, though: YouGov polls on the Internet. We've generally derided this methodology in the past (take a look at Zogby's absurd "Interactive" polls), so consider this strictly for fun.

Arkansas

Lincoln (D-inc) 37%, Baker (R) 37%
Lincoln (D-inc) 39%, Hendren (R) 37%
Lincoln (D-inc) 38%, Coleman (R) 34%
Lincoln (D-inc) 37%, Cox (R) 36%

Colorado

Bennet (D-inc) 35%, Norton (R) 38%
Romanoff (D) 33%, Norton (R) 39%

Connecticut

Blumenthal (D) 47%, McMahon (R) 35%
Blumenthal (D) 47%, Simmons (R) 34%

Delaware

Biden (D) 37%, Castle (R) 49%

Florida

Meek (D) 34%, Crist (R) 36%
Meek (D) 33%, Rubio (R) 40%

Louisiana

Melancon (D) 32%, Vitter (R) 52%

Missouri

Carnahan (D) 43%, Blunt (R) 39%
Carnahan (D) 40%, Purgason (R) 34%

Nevada

41% Reid (D-inc), 42% Lowden (R)
43% Reid (D-inc), 41% Tarkanian (R)

North Dakota

29% Pomeroy (D), 56% Hoeven (R)
30% Heitkamp (D), 58% Hoeven (R)

Ohio

31% Fisher (D), 37% Portman (R)
31% Brunner (D), 39% Portman (R)

Pennsylvania

39% Specter (D-inc), 40% Toomey (R)
33% Sestak (D), 37% Toomey (R)
DavidNYC :: Online Pollster YouGov Releases a Bazillion Senate Polls
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Online Pollster YouGov Releases a Bazillion Senate Polls | 10 comments
Are these polls online?
Are these polls just like Zogby's internet interactive polls meaning they are pretty much meaningless?
Hahaha
I love how these polls have no consistent bias. They show absurdly pro-Democratic results like Meek within the margin of error against Crist and Reid leading Tarkanian, yet they also show absurdly pro-Republican results like Blumenthal only leading by 12-13 and Portman leading Brunner by 8. The interesting thing is that I'm fairly sure some of YouGov's 2008 polls were actually fairly accurate.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
I don't think
That Portman leading Brunner by high single digits is in the realm of "absurd".
[ Parent ]
Ok, maybe not as bad as the other ones
but I feel like most other recent polls have shown a somewhat closer race, and with fewer undecideds for that matter.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
As a UK resident ...
I wouldn't dismiss yougov completely. They have a good track record in the UK and are one of our most respective and prolific pollsters (although here they use much larger sample sizes, at 2000). Although the internet panel approach to polling seems counter-intuitive, if the sampling is correct it can be effective. Of course they may not yet have got to grips with the nuances of US polling.

In the UK they have stood out because traditional telephone pollsters have a record of over-estimating the Labour vote. In any case I'd say they are much more credible than Zogby.

Respected not respective!

[ Parent ]
I don't thinkthat's an accurate read of the situation today
YouGov certainly do have a good UK reputation, but they're really no better and no worse than any of the other majors, bar the clearly implausible Angus Reid.

These days the Labour vote is overestimated less and less, by pollsters making various adjustments to pick up 'shy Tories' and reweight samples. There's even an argument (as yet lacking empirical evidence) that with Labour's current unpopularity, our numbers may actually be underestimated by a point or two.

But yeah, much better than Zogby.

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen poll in Delaware
taken Jan 25, 2010 after Beau Biden opted to not run

Castle (R) 56%
Coons (D) 27%

Thanks Joe, Thanks Beau
Hacks.
[ Parent ]
Is this the Biden Poll??
Somebody tell me, PUHLEEZE, that this is NOT the poll Beau Biden saw that made him drop his metaphorical tail and run like a delta dog at an Iditerod reunion!
Online Pollster YouGov Releases a Bazillion Senate Polls | 10 comments

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