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DE-Sen: Denn and Kaufman Out, Coons "Seriously Considering" Race, Carney Won't Switch

by: James L.

Mon Jan 25, 2010 at 3:39 PM EST


Though the Delaware Senate race is not lost yet for Democrats, the main issue right now is finding a replacement candidate to fill the hole left by the guy who most considered likely to run (until recent weeks), Beau Biden.

Incumbent Sen. Ted Kaufman says he won't seek a full term, and Lt. Gov. Matt Denn, a rising star in the local party, has decided to stay put (he's been in that office for only a year).

The biggest fish left in the pond appears to be New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, who says he's he's seriously considering it:

One early name mentioned as a possible Democratic challenger to Castle is New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, who represents a majority of the state's population. Coons told POLITICO Monday he is "seriously considering" a bid.

"I've received several calls from community leaders and friends encouraging me to run for the open seat for United States Senate," he said. "I am seriously considering running for the open seat. I need some time to meet with my family and those close to me. I expect to make a decision in the next few days."

Coons trailed Castle by 51-39 in the latest poll of this race, but he'd at least stand a fighting chance if he could mount a competent campaign. Remember, for all Castle's strength, he is still a pretty old guy in the sunset of his electoral career -- Coons, in his '40s, will at least have that contrast in his favor.

UPDATE: Ex-Lt. Gov. John Carney, currently running for Castle's open seat in the House, won't switch races, either.

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James L. :: DE-Sen: Denn and Kaufman Out, Coons "Seriously Considering" Race, Carney Won't Switch
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DE-Sen: Denn and Kaufman Out, Coons "Seriously Considering" Race, Carney Won't Switch | 45 comments
As much as Beau would have an early strength due to name rec
I'd say his being already known (and also being closely linked to someone as "inside" as the VP himself) might have kept him from growing too much.

So that's the silver lining.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

DE
You are kidding yourself if you think there is any silver lining to this.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
You do realize...
...the meaning of "silver lining" right? A small sliver of good in an otherwise-crappy situation.  

I'd say another silver living is that there's no "Biden seat" backlash--so no "People's Seat" malarkey like Scott Brown pulled in Mass.

Also...Tek, ever considered anti-depressants?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
You know, that is a very legit silver lining
But I spose Id want to see numbers reflecting that prior him having dropped out.
[ Parent ]
There is plenty else to contrast with
Namely his voting record. Leans is a fair rating.
51-39 is not bad
considering that Coons probably had much lower name recognition than Castle. In a D+7 state, he should have a lot of room to grow.
Probably a little generous
Since R2k do seem to be producing polls slightly more favorable to Dems. But I'd say a 15 point race isn't impossible.
[ Parent ]
Does
Coons have a chance of winning? Anyone know if Coons is popular and well-known in New Castle county? Also curious if he has alot of support on the ground among independents and party faithfuls. And does Castle have any weaknesses besides his age? SOrry for the amount of question but I honestly know little to nothing about Delaware politics.    

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
Castle's weakness
He isn't as moderate as people think. Primarily since he hasn't had a real race in years.
[ Parent ]
Hopefully
Castle will run a bad campaign.  
[ Parent ]
Hopefully
but Im not hoping on that at all.  He's been around the block, Im sure.
[ Parent ]
He certainly won't out-campaign Coons
Like Brown did Coakley.
[ Parent ]
Coons does have a shot
Full disclosure: I did mail for this guy in 2008 when he first ran for re-election, although I have had no affiliation with him or his campaign since then.  New Castle Co. covers about half of the state's population, including Castle's base of traditional supporters in the Wilmington suburbs.  He did not have any GOP opposition last year, but he won his primary by about a 2-1 margin.  The big thing he can run on is that he inherited a mess - the previous New Castle County CEO Tom Gordon was federally indicted for abusing his office for political purposes, and he also left the county in some serious financial trouble - and has been credited for righting the ship in tough times.  He also has a good resume - he received his master's in ethics from Harvard Divinity School and was County Council President before becoming Exec.  Another plus is that he won't have to give up his current seat to run.

The problems he'll face is not only lack of name ID, but that he had to make some unpopular fiscal decisions, namely in raising taxes and cutting a lot of county services (he clashed with some of the unions over this, not sure if that would hurt him in a Senate bid).  Also, in this kind of year he will get very little support downstate in Kent and Sussex Counties, and while there's not many voters down there, it means he has to play on Castle's turf.  Not to mention, while he is also a younger guy, he's nowhere near as telegenic as Biden.

Bottom line: Coons can do it, but he has his work cut out for him.  We also run a very real "inside job" risk in Delaware, where the local leaders may try to dissuade someone from running so that Beau can have the seat all to himself in 2014 when Castle either retires or fossilizes.  I would not put that past some of the folks who run the state party down there.

[ Parent ]
Little Support from Kent & Sussex?
Can you please explain why in this kind of year he will get very little support in Kent & Sussex?  Beau Biden won  AG because of the turnout in Sussex. If Coons comes downstate he will be welcomed. The lower counties are the frontier for Dems. They have to do well downstate to win in a competitive statewide race. By well, I mean lose by a small enough margin to go upstate and carry the victory. Castle should not be underestimated, he is well liked by indies, d's and most low information voters. The only groups that don't like him are hardcore Republicans who think he isn't really a Republican and hardcore Democrats who think hes too far to the right. Castle supported Stem Cell research and ENDA to include gays & lesbians. He is a moderate and the ONLY Republican the party could drum up to make this race interesting.  
[ Parent ]
Kent and Sussex
are heavily rural and very traditionally conservative.  I did mail for a bunch of state leg folks down there and I saw that lower Delaware is a lot like the Eastern Shore in Maryland - very white, lower-education/income, very rural.  Those voters typically go GOP but are usually outnumbered by the population tilt in New Castle.  Hence why the state assembly for so many decades was in GOP control, as these voters only recently began opening up to voting Democratic on the local level (and most of those Dems that won are pro-life).  In a year like 2010 they likely will revert to their old GOP ways.  The best chance any Dem has downstate is in Kent County where Dover has been blueing, but numbers-wise that's not enough.  Coons' best chance is to knock Castle out in New Castle County.
[ Parent ]
I had talk about Coons with a friend who knows
Delaware politics better then i do. His words: "not bad, but bland as yougurt (plain variety)"))))
[ Parent ]
Few options
Lately, Delaware has been filling federal offices with former Governors.  Except for Tom Carper who is already a Senator, Mike Castle at 70 is the youngest former Governor.  The two other Democrats who are still alive are the unpopular Ruth Minner (75)and somebody named Sherman Tribbett who is in his upper 80s.

Neither Beau nor Kaufman is running.  After Coons, what?  The Mayor of Wilmington?

Wilmington is a no
Jim Baker has been there for a long time and doesn't seem interested in leaving (he's in his 60's as well IIRC).  Wilmington is also somewhat unpopular in the state due to its bad crime and urban decay, which would make a bad comparison to Castle's well-praised Governorship.

If Coons doesn't run we have a thinner list.  We could go with New Castle Co. Council President Paul Clark, or any number of state legislators, but that would be a huge jump for them to make and we'd definitely be in a hole.  Former Wilmington City Council President Ted Blunt made some noise about a statewide run last year but no word since.

[ Parent ]
This will be tough, but not impossible
Mike Castle has all the markings of a "halo" candidate. He has literally never had to run a competitive race, or at least for over 20 years. I don't know what his state legislature districts were like, but he was pretty much ushered into the Governor's office as Pierre du Pont's handpicked successor. Then, he made a putrid bargain with Tom Carper to become a Representative while Carper became Governor, and Carper pretty much prevented anyone from challenging him. The halo's going to wear off in a tough race.
Carper is the key
If Carper comes out in full force for the Dem and denounces Castle than we've got a race.  Carper is the Godfather of Delaware Democratic politics (much more so than Joe Biden ever was) and has been the reason why so many Democrats have backed Castle (he's also kept any real Dem from ever challenging Castle).  If he sends a clear message to the base to ditch Castle, we have an opening.  If Carper backs Castle or stays out of the race our chances are very thin.
[ Parent ]
Carney not switching Races
Hope Coons goes for it...
I definitely think this is a winnable race even without Beau running. Coons looks like he has a good resume and already represents a good chunk of the state. Castle has not had a competitive race in a long time and at 70, one has to wonder if he has the fire in his belly. No doubt, the Democrat begins this race as the underdog.

Part of me really wishes Beau would have run because he has a huge fundraising base, but I don't think this decision means he'll never be in the Senate. The rumors last year were that Sen. Carper might not run for a third term in 2012. That would be a great opportunity for him to go to Washington.

Beau Biden
Won't support him for anything ever.  Or his dad in 2016.

What a disgrace.

What's wrong with Beau?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
They set the stage for him to run
appointing a placeholder for him, then he got scared because a bad candidate in Massachusetts managed to mess up.  We could have had a candidate months ago if he would have stepped up sooner (I understand he was overseas, then took a break after he got back) but his lack of an entrance was holding up any potential candidate.  Now Castle has 1?  2 million dollars banked?  Much harder of a race now than it had to be.  
[ Parent ]
He's got a tough case to handle
And he can always run in 2012 if Carper retires, or 2014 against Castle. He's only 40.
[ Parent ]
he should stick to his AG job
i can't get over the fact that a placeholder was appointed so that he could have a free shot at the nomination, but when it got tough, it decided to pass.  that's cowardice.  and worse, it reflects a sense of entitlement - why should he be given a free shot at all?  why couldn't he have just waited until carper retired?  If it weren't for that sense of entitlement, carney would probably have been appointed and the seat probably would be safe.  thanks for nothing, beau.  i would support any candidate who runs against biden in a primary.
[ Parent ]
Link, please...
... to any press report stating specifically that Kaufman was picked as a placeholder for Beau. I'm not talking about speculative inside-the-beltway chatter, which we have seen in abundance on this topic - I mean serious, sourced reporting.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
And more importantly...
... how seriously has Beau publicly been weighing the race over the past year? It seems like he was pretty noncommittal from the start, even before the Castle entry and the broader downturn in Democratic fortunes?

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Re: Publicly
He was in Iraq for most of the year last year. He also has 2 fairly high profile cases to take care of. One for a cop killer and the other for a child predator.  It was also felt that the AG office was slipping in his absence and he didn't hire the right people to carry on without him there. No article for that, just Dover rumor.
[ Parent ]
well, it's clear that Kaufman was only going to serve 2 years
Kaufman's statement when he was appointed:

"I also want to make clear that I am very comfortable with retiring after 2 years. I don't think Delaware's appointed Senator should spend the next two years running for office. I will do this job to the fullest of my ability, and spend my days focused on one thing and one thing only: serving Delaware."

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

If Minner was going to appoint someone to serve 2 years instead of indefinitely, there must be some reason.  She could have had either a political motivation or a non-political motivation (i.e. she thinks it's better for the state of Delaware or democracy or something).  The latter is almost laughably implausible, so it must be a political motivation.  What would that political motivation be?  It doesn't help the Democratic party since it's better to have an incumbent running in 2010 than an open seat.  The pick of Kaufman only makes sense if the seat was being held for someone. Who could that someone be?  Beau Biden!  And who would be an ideal seat-warmer?  Kaufman, a loyal, former aide of Joe Biden, who wouldn't be tempted to run against Beau.  Kaufman's pick is totally inexplicable unless he was chosen as a place-holder for Biden.  If you think he wasn't, the burden of proof is definitely on you to explain why.

[ Parent ]
besides, they're not going to say out in the open
that Kaufman is a placeholder for biden (that would look unseemly), but c'mon, read between the lines.

Kaufman is seen as a caretaker pick -- almost certain to serve for two years and then make way for Biden's son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, to be the Democratic nominee when a special election is held in 2010 for the remaining four years of Joe Biden's term.

Let's not be naive. Everyone knew what was going on at the time.

[ Parent ]
I understand the behind-the-scenes machinations that went on
I only question the extent to which Beau Biden was personally involved in them.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
And I'd support any Dem in a primary and any Republican in a general over him
We don't need spineless cowards in politics.
[ Parent ]
Without the spineless cowards, we'd probably have no politicians left
n/t

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
What are the chances of Castle running in 2014?
He will be 74 and not everyone one has Harry Byrd's lifespan.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
I'd say good
74 is not that old for the Senate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
What about after 2014?
80 is pushing it.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
We'll cross that bridge if we come to it n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Look at what happened to Bill Roth in 2000
he lost to Carper largely because Delawareans thought he was too old.  I really wouldn't be surprised if he stepped down in 2014, given how close he was to retiring.  This race is merely doing his party a favor and fulfilling a lifetime dream of his of becoming Senator.
[ Parent ]
Why should this seat be more competitive than Castle's House races?
An At-large congressional seat and Senatorial seat have the same constituents and serve similar functions. I can't imagine there being any substantial number of voters who would think "Yeah, this guy's a great Representative, but I don't think I'd want him as my Senator". Castle has cruised to re-election even in bad cycles (e.g. by a 23 point margin in 2008 even when Obama/Biden carried the state by a similar margin themselves). You might claim "Well, that was only because the Dems never put up serious candidates" but why should it be any different this time, now that their "star" candidate has declined? The only difference is that a Senate seat is more valuable than a House seat, giving prospective challengers a somewhat stronger incentive (and, I guess, Castle's seeming reluctance to run may mean he won't fight quite as hard). Still, I find it highly unlikely that those factors alone can reverse a 23 point deficit in a much more Republican leaning year (without Obama/Biden at the top of the ticket either, though I'm not sure that would really make a huge difference in this race).
Tom Carper could make the difference
Castle has always been able to run behind Sen. Carper to appear bipartisan
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen does his thing
Castle 56
Coons 27

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Reminds me of this...

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/...


That's not surprising
Coons is surely an underdog in this race, and PPP had similar numbers a few months back for a Coons-Castle House matchup.
[ Parent ]
Nope
Clearly the underdog. But not impossible. Castle isn't likely to be too sprightly a campaigner.
[ Parent ]
DE-Sen: Denn and Kaufman Out, Coons "Seriously Considering" Race, Carney Won't Switch | 45 comments

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