Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40
Curtis Coleman (R): 39
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41
Conrad Reynolds (R): 38
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43
Kim Hendren (R): 38
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41
Tom Cox (R): 38
(MoE: ±4%)
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 52
Bill Halter (D): 34
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 63
Bob Johnson (D): 22
(MoE: ±6%)
Mason-Dixon takes a first look at the Arkansas Senate race (on behalf of the Arkansas News Bureau), and while the results are still pretty ugly, they're not as bad as some other pollsters have seen it -- to the extent that there's actually a path to victory for Lincoln. Not that it's really in her control: she just needs to hope that the GOP manages to nominate one of the seven dwarves populating the GOP field, instead of the somewhat more appealing state Sen. Gilbert Baker (who leads her by 4)... or more ominously, that Rep. John Boozman doesn't decide to get into the race, at which point the game would likely be over. Mason-Dixon also find her currently surviving potential Democratic primary challenges (from the left from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter or from the right from state Sen. President Bob Johnson -- both of which have been rumored, but nothing tangible has happened yet).
With Lincoln's stock palpably sinking, there have been persistent rumors that the DSCC is telling Lincoln behind-the-scenes that she might want to consider getting out of the way, Chris Dodd-style. Unfortunately, there's no Richard Blumenthal waiting in the wings in the Wonder State, making this rumor seem unlikely -- although there was a whiff of a rumor of a Wesley Clark run in her place (or a run by Rep. Mike Ross, which would probably generate much less netroots enthusiasm than a Clark run -- although that could create a New Mexico-2008 type scenario where every House seat in the state is open). Lincoln herself acted this morning to bat down these rumors, saying she's under no pressure to retire and doesn't plan to do so, despite consistently polling in the 40% range.
