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DE-Sen: Beau Says No; SSP Moves Race to Lean R

by: James L.

Mon Jan 25, 2010 at 10:53 AM EST


Tears for fears:

Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (D) will not run for Senate this year, a serious setback to Democratic hopes of retaining a seat that was long held by Biden's father, Vice President Joseph Biden.

"I have a duty to fulfill as Attorney General - and the immediate need to focus on a case of great consequence. And that is what I must do. Therefore I cannot and will not run for the United States Senate in 2010. I will run for re-election as Attorney General," Beau Biden said in a statement released Monday morning. [...]

It's not clear yet who would seek the Democratic nomination if party officials cannot convince Kaufman to do so. One possibility is Chris Coons, the elected executive of New Castle County, which includes Wilmington.

In the polling we've seen of this race so far, Beau Biden was the only Democrat who began the race in a clearly competitive position with Castle. For instance, an October poll by Research 2000 had Beau trailing Castle by a single point, whereas Castle led Coons by 12, ex-Lt. Gov. John Carney by 8, and incumbent Ted Kaufman by 14.

With Democrats now behind the 8-ball in this state, SSP is changing our rating of this race from Tossup to Lean Republican.

RaceTracker: DE-Sen
James L. :: DE-Sen: Beau Says No; SSP Moves Race to Lean R
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DE-Sen: Beau Says No; SSP Moves Race to Lean R | 65 comments
Kaufman not running
Thanks Beau and Joe
Nice job screwing things up for us.  Picked a caretaker instead of a strong candidate, like Carney, who could have scared Castle off.
exactly
This really makes me mad.
[ Parent ]
It's pie in the sky hoping
but Joe should be replaced on the 2012 ticket.

What an absolute disgrace, and all the more reason appointments should never occur in back rooms filled with cowards.

[ Parent ]
Whoa
Why should Biden be replaced? Because his son decided not to run for the Senate seat?

Did Beau Biden ever officially say he was running for Senate or did he simply say he'd consider it?

If he said he'd consider it and that's it, then I see no big deal.

Did he wait too long? Maybe. I guess we should have mandatory time frames for candidates to announce now.

Castle is not an easy opponent, and Beau might have realized that with the political climate the way it is, his chances of taking down Castle would be very difficult.

[ Parent ]
Seems like our best hope is to move Carney up
But the ball has been dropped here, definitely. Ridiculous.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
What are the chances Carney would move up?
He is nearly assured of going into Congress for the open DE AL house seat, so giving up a sure bit for a 50/50 chance at bit may be hard to swallow, especially since the DE Democratic establishment blew him off on his desire to be appointed to the seat. One the other hand, the major advantage is that if he did run DE Democrats would be grateful and he would be the overwheling favorite against Beau Biden for the nomination in 2014 if Castle retired.
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't do it
We may end up needing the house seat more than the senate seat.
[ Parent ]
With the noted polling
Carney's chances may be less than 50-50. I suspect President Obama would have to promise him a job if he lost.

I notice that Gov Markell isn't polled. I wonder if it's too soon for him to run for Senate?

[ Parent ]
Markell shouldn't be polled but his Lt. Governor Matt Denn
Denn could run but I doubt it. The DE Dems likely will have to stick with Chris Coons.
[ Parent ]
Probably not very good
But I don't see many better options here.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I think this can be attributed directly
to the Massachusetts result.  
probably
but I think Beau would have won in Delaware. He would have taken nothing for granted and run a strong campaign.
[ Parent ]
The Bidens need to be done with politics like I think Coakley should be done
I will now be actively saying that I want Obama to replace Joe in 2012 and I will never support for Beau for a single office ever again.  Im not from DE so its not like I get much of a say, from my perch in MN, I hope he loses every race he ever attempts again in his life.

This is just flat out bullshit!  We couldve installed Carney in the Senate from the get go and had a very solid incumbent who Castle wouldnt have bothered to run against.  But instead the Bidens decide to completely fuck us over.  Like I really have zero respect for the Biden anymore, they play politics the exact way that I hate; they are in this for the job security, the legacy, and the titles, not for any higher purpose of actually wanting to work towards policy goals.

Hell, to me, they are a giant step below Coakley.  Coakley listened to the wrong advisers and just ran a crap race, the Bidens have purposefully and selfishly screwed over the entire country, so that Joe's effing barely 30 year old son can be a Senator for life.

Hey biiiiitch, why not just run in 2010 and if you lose, run in 2016 when Castle surely retires.  It's not like we'll forget your name.

And sorry to tie Brunner into this but this is EXACTLY why I love her, she isnt backing down and isnt being calculating her politics, she wants to be US Senator and that is that.  We need a lot more people politicians who just go for it and stop being whimps.  Look around, you have Berry and Snyder bailing, the TN twins and now all sorts of GOPers are jumping out of the wood work to run for office.  UGH!  Run for office because you want to, not because you think you'll win this time around.

The Bidens are dead to me.  And what is most annoying, Beau will be Senator in 2016 and I'll have to look to him for 40 effing years as a Senator, UGH!  BOOOO!!!!!

Seat is up for a full term in 2014
I don't think Castle is as unbeatable as is being suggested.
[ Parent ]
crap, you are right
Up in 2014, mid-term election through Obama's hopefully 2nd term, with the 2nd mid-term generally being bleaker than the 1st.

Granted, these are not normal circumstances, there hasnt been an economic depression like this since the 1930's which does take precedence over all the usual stuff.

[ Parent ]
Biden
I think Biden knows he can win in 2014 and 2010 is just a 50-50 chance. With a future 30 years in the Senate I think waiting the extra 4 to guarantee a win is a good idea.

By then Castle will be super old and will have the Senator line on his resume checked off. I think he just wants the trifecta, Governor, Congresman and Senator.

[ Parent ]
Hyperbole Andrew
There is some truth to your statements about Beau but why should Biden be replaced as Veep?  He was the only candidate who had a real plan for Iraq.  He actually says what he thinks whether you agree with him or no, bur of course Obama won't let him do much because he might say something that upsets the media.  I doubt Obama even lets him in the foreign policy decisions because Obama doesn't want to be look like a lightweight on those subjects in comparison to Biden, which he is.  

If any of the debates were actual debates in the Presidential race and Richardsom, Dodd or Biden had been given even close to equal time as the big three you would have seen that Edwards and Obama in particular couldn't hold a candle to the second tier when it came to foreign policy.  So who should be replaced?  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

[ Parent ]
Who cares about the 08 election
That asshole and his douchebag son just cost us a Senate seat.  What they did was downright treasonous to the Democratic Party as this was all orchestrated so that we could give the VP's son a shot at his dad's old senate seat, not so that we could give the seat away to the GOP, which was pretty much all they ended up orchestrated.  'Hey everyone, let's appoint an interim Senator so that we can let Castle have a free shot at this in 2010 and so that we can have a GOP Senator from DE' is pretty much the exact conversation they couldve had because that is the result that they are giving us.

Ugh, I want to move to DE simply so I can run against Beau for when he gets that open shot at the Senate seat.  The only tv ads Id run is, vote for someone with the balls to actually for the US Senate when it would count, not when I know Im a shoe in and dont actually have to work for it!

[ Parent ]
I remember
few here thought Castle would run and were genuinely surprised when he did.  
[ Parent ]
I remember
few here thought Castle would run and were genuinely surprised when he did.  
[ Parent ]
One detail you are leaving out....
If Biden had just been appointed to the seat, it would be looked upon negatively, as if by birthright, he was entitled to a senate seat.  

The best scenario is the one that was SUPPOSE to play out.  That said, your anger at Beau not running is justified, notwithstanding.    

[ Parent ]
Well I never wanted Beau to be appointed
and Im still glad he wasnt, even with this hot mess.  I wanted him to work for his senate seat like any other politician should have to.  He's apparently just a wuss and wanted to waltz into the US Senate than actually having to fight it out.
[ Parent ]
Warner
Can you imagine Warner on the ticket in 2012?

1. Obama considered him for 2008 but he had only 1 term as Governor. Now he will have been both a Governor and a Senator.
2. He gives Obama a good chance to continue the Obama legacy in 2016. Biden isn't running. Clinton will be told old. Who do we want Bayh?
3. He'll help Obama in Virginia and North Carolina.
4. He'd be another progressive in the room to trump Rahm.

I like the idea.  

[ Parent ]
Is he more progressive than Biden
in your opinion? I think Biden's more liberal, and I tend to regard "liberal" and "progressive" as different words for the same thing, but some people disagree. So please elaborate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
It's like we are cursed..
Maybe Summer 2009 was the judgement and 2010 will be the apocalypse? (j/k)

But our whole agenda is being brought down by piss poor leadership from the White House all thru Congress. So sad...

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

Well,
Republicans were cursed in 2006-2008. It's, probably, Democratic turn now..
[ Parent ]
Precisely
Everybody here needs to take a chill pill and try to maintain some perspective.

Let's face it: 2010 is going to suck. As David astutely pointed out, midterms always suck. The president's party losing seats in his first midterm election cycle is one of the most consistently observed trends in American politics. (Yes, it happens on rare occasions that this doesn't happen, but 2010 pretty obviously is not going to be one of those years). The question is, to what degree will 2010 suck? As it stands right now, that degree will be... well, hard. It will suck really hard. Massachusetts was a huge blow for the Democrats and is already playing out in candidate recruitment for both parties. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see it also reflected in fundraising numbers for next quarter.

HOWEVER, November is over nine months down the road. Most experts are foreseeing a gradual uptick in all the important economic indicators. For better or worse, healthcare is going to be pretty much off the table, and the discourse will turn to the area where Democrats have practically always won the debate - job creation. Being in the establishment as they are, this likely won't be enough to save their hides completely, but it ought to be enough to shore up a number of seats that otherwise seem endangered at this point, as the Republicans never have been and never will be the party of economic populism. Simply put, the key to saving ourselves right now is providing good governance - and just as importantly, putting forth the right messaging so as to present Democratic priorities in the proper light.

More broadly, we have got to recognize that the pendulum always swings back. The American public at large are quite evidently not fans of unified government, especially at a time when their pocketbooks are hurting. We went two consecutive election cycles without losing a single senate seat... the trend was bound to reverse itself. I view 2010 less as 1994 than 1996 - the year Republicans started ceding back the gains they made the previous cycle. Admittedly, we're on track to lose a heck of a lot more seats than they did in '96, but the idea is the same. Our current majority is way overextended, and is rooted in the fact that we've somehow been able to maintain majorities in the congressional delegations of such absurdly conservative states as Mississippi, Arkansas, and Tennessee. To the extent that Republicans will (and have already) made inroads in the Blue States, this is attributable to the short term political environment and (relatedly) a disparity in candidate quality. Scott Brown, Mike Castle, and Pat Toomey all have 'ONE TERM' stamped on their foreheads (gone, respectively, in 2012, 2014, and 2016), just like Bobby Bright, Tom Perriello, and Walt Minnick are over in the House.  It will be downright painful to listen to the MSM spin about the Republican renaissance, but their victories will be pyrrhic, and we all know it.

So let's just calm down, do the best we can this year, support President Obama any way we can, and prepare to wage holy war on their obstructionist asses in 2012.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Perhaps I'm repeating myself
(barring some terrorist incident/other foreign event)

it all depends on the unemployment rate at around Labor Day.

If it's below the current rate (9.7%), things won't get worse.

If it's below the rate at the inauguration (8.5%), any losses we have will be limited.

[ Parent ]
Good luck getting that job's bill through
http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITI...

People already think the stimulus package was a waste, and I saw polling somewhere on CNN or MSNBC that I cant find now showing a 54%-42 disapproval rating of it or something like that.  How on earth are we going to get through more spending bills to jump start this economy when the electorate doesnt even realize the big one is actually doing them some good.

[ Parent ]
It was a no win situation
If there was no stimulus package, the American people would have complained that the Obama administration "didn't care".

If the stimulus package was watered down more than what some had proposed, we would have diminishing returns.

The Republicans have done a great job of spinning this stimulus bill as government waste.  Guess what?  Many are unemployed, can't find jobs, are losing their homes, and they are willing to buy into this idea.


40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
There's really no way around that
We couldn't pass a stimulus without watering it down, so we had to deal with people like Snowe and Collins and Lieberman who are clearly seeking to destroy Democrats.

So, you know what, we were screwed from day one.  

[ Parent ]
Right
We are being punished for trying to fix what went wrong BEFORE Obama was sworn into office.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
By a country
that wants us to fix it cheaply and without more government intervention.

It's to the point where I just don't care what happens to this country anymore. Let the Republicans destroy it.  

[ Parent ]
I hestitate to sound like John McCain
But that, my friend, is exactly it.
[ Parent ]
Ugh
I have a nasty stomach virus...that didn't help things out.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
The stimulus is still less than half spent
ref http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/...

Patience....

And a loosening of lending standards could help too, though of course, that has its own risks.

[ Parent ]
True, but this doesn't negate...
the fact that piss poor sucky leadership dug us farther into a shit-hole than we had to be in. We've already shed most of our vulnerable right flank in the 1990s, so our exposure was in the center. But Obama, Reid and whichever dolt runs the WH political operation, decided to waste crucial time going after folks who had 0 interest in helping them AND allowed the crazed fringe to define the most essential element of Democratic agenda (HCR) AND the administration and Senate leadership responded to this deranged demonization which such mixed messaging, you'd think they were bi-polar. How do you botch up so many advantages in less than 1 yr, if you weren't cursed in the first place?

The GOP was pretty much a do nothing Congressional party but their leadership was efficient enough to sustain negligble lossess from 1996 until their calamity in 2006 and 2008. By that time, they'd done so much damage, it would take is decades to clean it up. Now our own docile can't-walk-and-fart at the same time leadership is on the verge of throwing the election back to the discredited rag tag bunch we fired barely 2 yrs ago?

Ordinarily, we should lose net 10 seats in the House and maybe net 2 in the Senate. Now we may well lose the former and are on track to have at best 55 Senate seats. Political trends are predictable, but self destructive political leadership is unforgiveable.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

[ Parent ]
The media helped a lot with this
can't blame them for mistakenly believing the American people were, you know, adults.  
[ Parent ]
::sigh:: You know you have lost all optimism in the Democratic Party
when you read someone say we still have 9 months to turn this around and all I read was 9 months to this fuck up even harder.

Thank god there is a gubernatorial election here in MN so that I still have something to keep me hopeful and active.

[ Parent ]
And here is what scares me...
I listen to guys like Bill Nelson in Florida and others.  And here is their central message.

"The Democratic Party is a bunch of lefty commies.  But not me.  I'm Good. It's those other guys.  I'm not with them.  Honest!"

That is a recipe for another 1994.  Things are bad and they could get worse.  Our problem more than anything else is lack of leadership and just pure cowardice.  It is going to be tough to convince voters we are not weak and ineffective if our response is to be weak and ineffective.

There is plenty of time for us to turn things around.  But it starts with us acting like we are the majority party.  Nothing wrong with losing if you pick yourself up and get right back into the fight.  There is something wrong with living in fear of losing and drowning in existential angst.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Fuck this, Im doing a shot
It's not even noon but this was NOT what I wanted to wake up to.  Seriously, just ridiculous.
OK
Who supported the appointment because they didn't want it just handing to Beau? He had to work for it! Sigh.
Hahahahaha, that was me!
And I still stand by that statement.  I was wrong in assuming Beau would actually want to work for the Senate seat, however.
[ Parent ]
You weren't the only one

[ Parent ]
Playing politics...
will cost us Massachusetts and now Delaware.  If Massachusetts had left the law the way it was (or changed it so the appointed replacement simply had to be the same party) we wouldn't have lost Mass.

If Minner had appointed Carney in Delaware he would have had a much better shot against Castle.  

Carney should stay in the house race.  He'll win, and eventually make it to the Senate.  Both Castle and Carper are not "young", with Castle likely being a one-termer.

My comment is that
Beau Biden is a [derogatory word for genitalia deleted]. This is bullshit, pure cowardice.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
he wants the seat
he just doesn't want to work for it.  in four years, when the seat is up for re-election and castle has retired, biden will run again.
[ Parent ]
I'll donate to John Carney to challenge him...
I assume the attorney general in Delaware will still have important work to do in 2016.
[ Parent ]
me too
after this, I don't want Biden to ever hold this seat
[ Parent ]
Oh I will too
Carney would certainly get some bucks if he ran against Beau in the primary.
[ Parent ]
I'm not going to say he is a coward...yet
but I do believe that his decision-making process was that of arrogance, conceit, and self-centeredness.  He knew that every Democrat was awaiting his decision, and yet he dragged his feet until now and laid this bomb on us.  That makes little sense to me except to conclude that he felt he was above the Democratic party.  

I don't believe Beau is a coward...yet.  He did go to Iraq for a year, and although it might have been a plush job, its still Iraq and he would be a prime candidate for the opposition to hurt.  The only reason I add "yet" is because he may have been calculating the electoral benefits of having an Iraq deployment on his resume.  He's killed any such benefits by his stupid logic.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
I'm saying he's a political coward
I don't mean to denigrate his military service.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Agreed!
Come on, he's Beau Biden, he'd be a forever remembered name and with Castle probably just doing one term, Beau could run and lose and wait only 4 years.  I mean come on, run and give it an effing shot!  You never know, you may win and sometimes its worth the shot of not being an elected official for a whole 4 freaking years.  It's not like we wont appreciate your strong run and highly want you to run in 2014, but now, Im hoping for Carney to run and make Beau settle for the House, and then wait for Carper hopefully later on so that Carney can eb Senior.

The Bidens just fucked us all over in the biggest way possible.  Just, ugh...   Cowards!  Come on, do it for it the party!  

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the clarification
n/t

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Some days I feel like my party is a bunch of cowards and whores.
And then there are some days when I know they are a bunch of cowards and whores.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
Good one

[ Parent ]
That made me laugh.
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
The only problem I have with Beau Biden
Is that he didn't announce his decision until now.  Had he given his decision in September, I wouldn't have been upset (I wouldn't have liked it then, but we would be in better shape of determining our candidate).  Beau Biden is not an idiot, and he should have known that his decision to run was important to everyone and the Democrats in general.

The only thing that could have been worse is if he announced his candidacy last Fall and then pulled a "I want to remain committed to my Attorney General's office" number.

I'll get over it, eventually, but I'll stay only lukewarm to any of Beau's further attempts to obtain this seat.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Well he was in Iraq in September
so there was that  
[ Parent ]
Yep
n/t

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Lt. Governor Matt Denn (D) also won't run for Senate
This must be how Democrats felt from 2005 through summer 2008
Every day, I log onto the internet and find a barrage of bad news for the Democrats. It feels good to be alive!

Charlie Cook moved this to 'Safe Republican'. That seems a little harsh to me, but none of the remaining Democrats look like they can compete with Mike Castle.

typo
summer 2009
[ Parent ]
Yeah, even with the Dem bench pretty anemic, I'd only rate this Lean-to-Likely GOP


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
DE-Sen: Beau Says No; SSP Moves Race to Lean R | 65 comments

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