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AR-Sen: Boozman Considering Lincoln Challenge

by: James L.

Fri Jan 22, 2010 at 3:38 PM EST


Huge news:

For Rep. John Boozman (R-AR), consideration of a bid against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) is anything but idle.

Boozman has begun calling other GOP candidates in the race to gauge whether they would stay in the contest if he made a late entry, according to a top aide. And some have already assured him they would leave the race if he does take the plunge.

Several candidates have told Boozman they would bow out and run instead for his House seat, the state's most conservative district, based around Fayetteville and Ft. Smith in the northwest corner of the state.

And it appears the GOP establishment would be behind him as well. Boozman is expecting a call from NRSC Chairman John Cornyn this weekend and will meet with Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell on Monday morning.

Boozman is probably the #2 name for Republicans in Arkansas, right behind Huckabee. His candidacy would be a clear cut above the current field -- and it's likely that some of those second-tier Senate candidates would step aside to accomodate him. In particular, the Hotline mentions a possible exit route for state Sen. Gilbert Baker, who at this point can probably be called the leading GOP candidate in the primary: he could step down the ladder and run for Vic Snyder's seat instead. (However, Gilbert would face a primary from Rove acolyte and ex-US Attorney Tim Griffin.)

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen

James L. :: AR-Sen: Boozman Considering Lincoln Challenge
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Could be a blessing
Lincoln maybe more likely to get out then for someone stronger.

Honestly
I'm surprised he took this long

Could Halter beat Boozman?
I have little doubt (althoug I take nothing for granted anymore)that he could beat Baker or someone like that but Boozman is about as top tier as they come. Would Boozmans district be in play? Does anyone know of any electable dems in his district? I think if the rethugs get a well known establishment canidate like Boozman in this enviroment we will be toast, unless we can get Bebbe or mabey Wesley Clark. I really do not want to have to write another race off like I did with ND.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Boozman's District is the most conservative in the State according to Cook
It has a PVI of R + 16

This is safe GOP Category.

Halter isn't going to run with Boozman in the Race I believe. Halter should run for Snyders District.


[ Parent ]
What about Clark for Senate?
He could raise a ton of money and he is a good fit for the state. I know he seems interested in Snyders old seat but it allmost seems foolish to waste Clark on a congressional race that Halter could win for us as well.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
If Lincoln and Halter opt-out we still have a few choices
We hold all the elected statewide offices so I suppose the AG, SoS, Treasurer, or Auditor could run.  I know nothing else about any of these people however, except that they were all easily elected in 2006 (with the auditor running without any GOP opposition).

As for AR-3: this district has been in GOP hands since 1966.  It's not going to change anytime soon.  In 1974 this one Democrat got pretty close to winning it, some dude named Bill Clinton.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Does anyone have the numbers...
of how Halter did in his Lt. Gov. race in AR-03?

[ Parent ]
Quick calculation, Holt won it 52-48.


[ Parent ]
Why not rethink all for AR-Sen race? Why not M Beebe for senate?
And Halter (or other) for governor?

Nice, but I doubt it
Beebe has a sure second term as Governor, a senate race would be much harder.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Beebe just announced for Reelection
I doubt he'll change his mind.

http://www.arkansasbusiness.co...


[ Parent ]
I think M Beebe can be the Blumenthal from Arkansas

That is for think seriously if democratic stablishment wish make more safe this Arkansas senate seat.

[ Parent ]
If Beebe wants to be a Senator
he can just run for re-election, finish out his second term, then run for the Senate in 2016 against whatever Republican wins this year. With a crap environment like this, I don't see why he would drop a sure thing for a 50/50 shot.

[ Parent ]
Well, it's not like 2016 will be a great year for an Arkansas Democrat, either, though.
It will, afterall, be a presidential year, and Arkansas will probably go Republican.  And that includes if Hillary is on the ticket.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Plus, Beebe will have much stronger coattails as a gubernatorial candidate for Lincoln, Halter, Clark or whomever ends up running for the Senate seat. (not to mention Vic Snyder's seat)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
With Beebe in the senate race dems lose not this traction

Would be interesting know a poll Beebe vs Baker or someother but I think he can crush all potential republicans, including Boozman. If he crush all for governor I should crush too the same people for senate.

And Halter for governor, or Clark seem so good options.

Some people think in the help of Beebe from the gubernatorial race, but I think he can help more as candidate for senate.

Why think only in mid level candidates for replace Lincoln? Beebe can be a mix between Hoeven and Blumenthal for Arkansas senate race.


[ Parent ]
But as we all know...
Not every governor wants to be a senator. Beebe could very well be one of those people. In fact if he took on Lincoln in a primary i bet hed win. Although i dont know how he goes at her...left or right. But hed probably win nonetheless. Even if its just on an outsider/anti-Washington platform.  

[ Parent ]
He could be more conservative than Licoln
You never know.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Dear Lord is that even possible these days?
Lincoln these past two years have been a obstructonis and has tacked right.

[ Parent ]
Sure it's possible
Lincoln did vote for the Senate health bill, eventually.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
M Beebe 50/50 for senate? sure?

I think he should have so high advantage in the poll. Safe for governor and 50/50 for senate with the same potential adversaries?

[ Parent ]
Senatus on Twitter just Retweeted that "WI-SEN: Better than 50/50 chance that ex-WI Gov Tommy Thompson runs for Senate, per source"
Hopefully PPP's right and his approval rating is really in the red.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Wrong place, whoops!


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Crossposted at the Thread about Berry's Retirement
Boozman will run. The MA Senate Election pushed him towards running.

This is a Piece from a NY Times Article.

Representative John Boozman, Republican of Arkansas, said the results in Massachusetts had pushed him toward challenging Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, a vulnerable Democrat. "If the people of Massachusetts are upset, you can imagine how the people of Arkansas feel," Mr. Boozman said in a telephone interview Sunday night.



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