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MA-Sen: Post-Mortem Roundup

by: James L.

Wed Jan 20, 2010 at 6:13 PM EST


When it comes to writing about elections after the fact, I'm not a big post-mortem guy -- I feel it can sometimes be a little disingenuous to diagnose a race with absolute certainty a day or two after, in many cases, you were hedging your bets as to the final outcome. That said, though, there are an endless supply of post-mortems out there on Martha Coakley's mind-numbingly bad result last night, and some of them actually have some worthwhile observations to offer. Let's round up a few of these pundit attempts to leave their mark on the CW:

DemFromCT also has a pundit roundup. If data, rather than chatter, is your drug, the WVWV exit poll is now available, as is Rasmussen's not-surprisingly dead-on election night poll.
James L. :: MA-Sen: Post-Mortem Roundup
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MA-Sen: Post-Mortem Roundup | 29 comments
I disagree that Scott Brown
who is among the most unqualified individuals to serve in the US Senate, will be a moderate Republican.  My guess, he's a solid conservative, and either runs for President or pines for the VP, and doesn't run for reelection.  Or he sees his victory as a conservative mandate, and assumes that MA has turned red and thus thinks he can win reelection as a wingnut.  Either way, MA will have a Democrat in 2013, even if Romney's (little) coattails help him in 2012.

Maybe
Scott Brown will be the next Gordon Smith. Remember, we barely beat Smith in 2008 even though Obama won Oregon by double digits, Merkley and the DSCC were constantly attacking him over the airwaves. And yes Gordon Smith was basically a rank and file Republican, but he did have the courage to work with Ted Kennedy on the Matthew Shepard Hate Crimes act, which I respect him for. Brown's a politician, if he loves the fact that Reid and Obama will court his vote, he'll find some liberal issue to work on with the Democrats so he can be reelected in 2012.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Smith was the former Prez in the Oregon Senate
Brown is a guy who accomplished nothing in the legislature.  Secondly Smith would have never behaved in the immature way that Brown did in disputing that Obama's parents were married when he was born.  

Basically Scott Brown is a complete jerk and a teabagger. I have less than zero respect for the man.  He'll likely make more inflammatory comments and run for President.  

[ Parent ]
Plus Smith you got to remember
Unlike Brown, Smith was a bit of a moderate. He was slimy but a moderate to an extent. Scott Brown isn't.
[ Parent ]
Yeah i'm inclined to go with Smith on that one
My look on Scott Brown that he won't be the next Olympia Snowe but the next Jim DeMint. The guy is a rock hard conservative and plays to the hand of the teabaggers like wht he said about Obama's parents. He won't care about being a moderate because him like Joe Cao in the House won't matter if they vote like a liberal, moderate or conservative they'll get beat no matter what. So he might as well vote his coinsidence and disregard what his voters think. Plus with MA nevering electing a GOPer to the Senate since Edward Brooke they won't mind Scott Brown in for two years.
[ Parent ]
I guess
you guys are right. I was running under the assumption that since Brown was elected in what the most liberal state in the country, he would become a Republican in the mold of the Maine twins if he has any chance of winning in 2012. Well, at least he'll do a ton of damage to the Obama agenda before Mike Capuano (or someone not named Martha Coakley) throws him out.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
"Well, at least he'll do a ton of damage to the Obama agenda before Mike Capuano (or someone not named Martha Coakley) throws him out."
Wait, why would you want him to do a ton of damage to Obama's agenda? To make him out to be the true teabagger he is and not a moderate like Snowe or something else? I don't follow.
[ Parent ]
Worded
that wrong. I meant that he'll do a ton of a damage to the Obama agenda before he's ejected in 2012. (No I don't wish the president's agenda gets torpedoed by teabaggers.)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
I thought it was a typo
Thanks for pointing it out.
[ Parent ]
Most unqualified? Please clarify.
I don't know much about Brown's qualifications, but there sure have been some very undistinguished U.S. Senators. So for Brown to be among the most unqualified in history would really be a signal accomplishment.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I don't think he's unqualfied
I don't like him but he's not unqualfied. He's not some nobody, he is (or now was) a State Senator. I mean before Kay Hagan got elected to the Senate in '08 she was a State Senator does that make her unqualfied as well?
[ Parent ]
no, still is
technically he's still a state senator until he replaces Kirk.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I haven't been following closely
1) Is Kirk still a member of the Senate? IIRC, his term was set to officially expire on Jan 19th.

2) Have they yet scheduled Brown's swearing in?

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
according to wiki kirk is still a senator
and no, I don't think so.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Well
Kay Hagan was in the N.C. State Senate for about twice as long as Scott Brown was in the Massachusetts State Senate. Not necessarily saying that fact makes a substantive difference, just pointing it out.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
And I thank you for pointing it out
But still the face remains that Brown was a State Senator, an elected offical. It's not like before getting elected to the U.S. Senate he was working at Burger King or Minards. So I think he's qualfied regardless of how much time he spent on Beacon Hill.
[ Parent ]
In principle I agree
However, I think there are other pre-requisites to holding higher office - i.e., a clear command of the issues relevant to the position the candidate is seeking. Sarah Palin, for example, was governor of Alaska, which should "qualify" her to be on a presidential ticket, yet she (obviously) displayed minimal grasp over many of the areas that she, in her would-be capacity as vice president, would likely need familiarity with (i.e., glaringly, FOREIGN POLICY & THE ECONOMY). I've heard comparisons drawn (from admittedly highly biased quarters) between Palin and Brown, vis a vis Brown's apparent lack of understanding over a range of national - rather than state - issues. Having not watched any of the debates myself, I don't know whether that's fair or not.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
I like Kay
Kay was definitely qualified.

If you want to look at other NC US Senators, I would introduce you to John Edwards.  I voted for the douchebag in 1998 because Faircloth was a joke, but Edwards wasn't qualified for the job.  I feel more about that every day...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Well
now John Edwards can't poke his head out in public anymore since he admitted he fathered his mistress' child...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
How was Edwards unqualified at that time?
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
different stuff
He was personal injury lawyer, having served not one day in an elected position.  In addition, he had admitted to have not voted during some elections because he was either uninterested to learning about the candidates or that he simply had no time.  The lack of resume didn't bother me as much as his lack of interest.  I found him at the time very unfocused.

When I heard him say that many years ago, I was just turned off and didn't want him to win.  I voted for D.G. Martin in the primary.  I did vote for Edwards in the general election.  I'd prefer an inexperienced, unqualified senator over an idiot (Faircloth).

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Not for the first time don't agree with Jensen
Top of the list - blame Obama. But he uses his own poll to support that finding of just 44% approval. There topline numbers are excellent but for some reason they always underscore when it comes to the president. What is the evidence for that? Well, Rasmussen's election day poll pegged Obama approval at 53% and PPP's final polls of VA and NJ had very similar margins below what would eventually be reported in the exit polls. Clearly, disgruntlement with the administration played a large part but to almost completely brush-off the poor campaign is dead wrong in my view.
So Conspiracy
Are you saying that Jensen is blaming the whole loss on Obama when in part (atleast 85 percent) should be blamed on the poor campaign of Martha Coakley? is that what your trying to say. Because if it is i'm in agreement.
[ Parent ]
Read his takeaway of what it means
"This was a repudiation of Barack Obama."

"Republicans win when they nominate mainstream candidates."

"Voters hate both parties right now and that's to the GOP's advantage."

"Things could turn around for the Democrats between now and November but it's hard to dispute the notion that this could be 1994 all over again."

Their polls are top notch but the analysis often leaves a lot to be desired.

[ Parent ]
MA
I think Brown will likely continue his rightward march.  Palin/Brown seems like a likely ticket at this point.

29/D/Male/NY-01
as a Dem I wish
However I seriously doubt Palin will get the nommination. However I think Brown could run, he would get beat in 12 in Mass so what does he have to loose?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
This is more policy based
 But it should be an interesting read on how Obama can be popular again.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Mark Penn's article is infuriating.
I hope Obama knows better than to take Mark Penn's advice.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
I think he should take his advice
After all it worked for Hillary...oh wait. Nevermind.
[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Post-Mortem Roundup | 29 comments

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