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MA-Sen: Who Should Take on Scott Brown in 2012?

by: James L.

Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 7:50 PM EST


InsiderAdvantage for the Politico (1/17, likely voters):

Martha Coakley (D): 43
Scott Brown (R): 52
Joe Kennedy (I) 2
(MoE: ±4%)

You know, we've picked these polls apart enough already, so how about we all take a page from trowaman and ask: If Scott Brown takes this race tomorrow, who should Democrats run against him in 2012? Not that we're predicting that he'll win, but it's never too early to think through the hypotheticals. Tell us who you think should run in the comments.
James L. :: MA-Sen: Who Should Take on Scott Brown in 2012?
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MA-Sen: Who Should Take on Scott Brown in 2012? | 84 comments
NH 2008
Honestly this whole election reminds me of the NH primary in 2008. Obama came out of nowhere after a win in Iowa and the closet poll had Hillary DOWN by only 5 or 3 points. I think while this race will be extremely close all this Brown enthusiasm is being over played.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
I hope so
I would love to live in Mass some day and I do not want a teabagging Senator.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
me too :)
me too :) !  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Mass is a great state to live in
and all the better if you plan on moving there Jan 2013 or later. :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I love Massachusetts too.
Except maybe for the cold.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Well
I really don't know if this is the best exercise. If Brown wins, let's play that game late tomorrow night. If Coakley wins, we will all feel stupid playing the hypothetical game.

That title for a website that gets a lot of media attention is somewhat dangerous. It just feeds into the media's perception of Democrats giving up.

And to answer your question "who should take on Brown in 2012?" A solid Democrat who wants to take his state senate seat.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

Capuano!
As someone who supported Coakley in the primary I would support Capuano 110% if he ran against Brown in 2012. But I agree let's not talk about this. Let's instead talk about any news coming out of Mass like turnout projections by those on the ground and how the opinions of voters of Mass are viewing this race.

I also want to know more about news of out of state GOPers and teabaggers pretending to be Brown voters as I've heard a lot about this.  

Also, I don't remember where I saw this but I saw a video of a woman harasing Coakley supporters on line to see Obama and all the lady kept saying was "Obama and Coakley are Nazis' while she was holding up a Brown sign

ANy thughts?  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
What I've noticed is that
the fewer Republicans there are in an area, the more marginalized they are, the crazier they tend to get. I remember over the summer at a Barney Frank town hall in Dartmouth, some wingnut held up a sign comparing Obama to Hitler. It's bad enough before you stop to think that Barney Frank is Jewish and any idiot can probably guess how Jews feel about Hitler comparisons.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sorry,
but I absolutely can't just take the idea of MA Sen. Brown.

So for the next 36 hours I'm sticking my fingers in my ears and going la-la-la-la I can't hear you.
After that I'll be in denial and depression for a couple days.
After that I'll say anyone but Coakley. No second chances here.

Phonebank!
If that's possible?  
[ Parent ]
I think a really strong candidate should run regardless
Coakley has proven that she's not exactly a very capable politician.

I would say someone like John Tierney, but he's starting to get up there in age and his district is one of the least safe of the MA delegation (he recaptured it in '98).

I would love the thought of Barney Frank as senator, if only as a big middle finger to all his critics in the libertarian and conservative factions of the country.

'96 actually
Tierney will be 61 in 2012, which is kind of gray area as far as senate runs go. Frank is definitely way too old though, plus he's already pretty powerful in the House.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
My Congressman, My Senator.
I would love to see John go for Senate. However, as stupid as this sounds, his opponent has been very aggresive in campaigning against him, which makes me mildly worried.

I'm a man, but what makes me so upset is that Massachusetts props up these female candidates that just suck - when there are so many capable ladies in state politics that could be fantastic candidates.

Martha Coakley is done. Whether she wins or loses, her luster is long since gone...Martha's win will undoubtedly mean an ambitious pol challenges her in 2012, which she right deserves since she wasted all this money.

...a Martha loss means good bye...she will be done as AG. This isn't me being dramatic, but she is finished. MA Democrats are not so forgiving, and there is a deep enough bench for us to not have a flawed candidate run for AG.

[ Parent ]
Wow
I think you might want to reword that, that's pretty offensive.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I didnt find it very harsh
She really effing blew it.  And if I lived in MA, Id vote for someone else in the Dem primary.  People really care about elections, blown races do make us a bit bitter.
[ Parent ]
Hey i'm from PA
I konow what bitter means, i'm currently clinging to my gun at this time lol.

(That was just a joke, not a shot at the President).

[ Parent ]
I meant the part about "female candidates that just suck"
There are a lot of sucky candidates in Massachusetts (and everywhere) and it's in somewhat poor taste to suggest that the female candidates just suck when suckiness among politicians is gender-blind.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
John Tierney
Would be superb. I like Capuano, but he didn't exactly set the world on fire. So if we are staying with the established senior politicians in the state, I'd say go Tierney. His record couldn't be better.
[ Parent ]
Jim McGovern or Niki Tsongas

Tsongas had Coakley's problem in 07


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
LOL
Def not Niki Tsongas.
[ Parent ]
Not Martha Coakley
A guaranteed winner.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Alan Khazei
The best candidate in the primary field, and a self-funder who won't be tainted by the shenanigans in Washington.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
With the exception of Stephen Pacgulica
Any candidate except Coakley would of kicked ass, pure and simple. Shit we shouldn't even be worrying about this seat, we should all be talking about some other election like IL-Sen or CO-Sen instead because of Martha's inept campaign were forced to worry again.

There's a thread just started on the predictions of the race. After that and despite Martha winninf or not James or David should start another thread: Who ran the worst campaign: Martha Coakley or Creigh Deeds?

[ Parent ]
Coakley, without a doubt
Deeds took what was at best a tossup and turned it into a rout. Coakley took a sure thing and has turned it into an upset for the other side.
[ Parent ]
Coakley didn't do that
The credit for what happened belongs to Scott Brown.  This no-name wingnut ran a phenomenal campaign.  

Coakley until the last 10 days did what any Democrat assumed, that the primary was the only race that mattered.  In the last 10 days, she was awful.

Did any Democrat really believe that Scott Brown had a chance on January 1?

[ Parent ]
She didn't run a single ad until Jan. 7
Total joke. And the Mass. blogs and local blogs were saying all December she was inviting trouble.
[ Parent ]
Meant local media

[ Parent ]
He was actually tied with Brown in the one pre-primary poll that Suffolk U did
so I don't know that he would have done much better.
[ Parent ]
Actually, I think that with Khazei, we wouldn't be in this mess
Khazei wouldn't have had the problem of complacency, and would have worked hard from the start. And considering how blue the fundamentals are in Massachusetts, any half-decent campaigner would thump Brown.
[ Parent ]
Name Recognition
Beware polls where one or more candidates are not widely known. They have a tendency to be really inaccurate or at least highly mutable.

Capuano would have no trouble rallying the base and would not have thought he could afford to take December off.

He'd be my man for 2012 in the event that we needed someone to run against a U.S. Senator Scott Brown. (Do not make me f**king type those words again, Bay State voters. They make me nauseous.)

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Seriously!
I know this question has been asked more times than I can count, but what kind of politician thinks they can take a month off and still have the race in the bag?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Answer
basically any Democrat in Massachusetts.  Hardly nobody really believed that this would be a race.  I certainly didn't.  You've got to tip your cap to Scott Brown on the race he ran.
[ Parent ]
True
whoever wins tomorrow, this is going to be a race that is going to get a novel written about it.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
And it ought to
as I said, this is the biggest upset in political history, bar none.  

Even more so than the Wellstone win in 1990, which was rated as Safe Republican by CQ Weekly until the last week.

[ Parent ]
False
What we got was someone who won a primary on name recognition and being the only woman in a four-person race against three men.

A Capuano, who was only heretofore known in his geographically small House district, or Khazei, who was possibly less well known than Scott Brown before Ted Kennedy passed away, would not have thought his campaign could go dark for a month.

 

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
The popular Democratic Attorney General of Massachusetts
like I've said, did anyone SERIOUSLY think this race would ever be competitive?

[ Parent ]
No and that was the problem
The GOP got very very lucky here.  They had an excellent campaigner who was seen as a certain loser, which brought some real complacency and overconfidence.

Had the GOP nominated a "better" candidate such as Cellucci or Weld, Coakley would have had to campaign a bit and probably would be on her way to victory.

It was precisely because a sacrificial lamb was nominated in Brown that we ended up in this situation.

[ Parent ]
Well
Governor Michael Dukakis thought he could at the time when he ran for President in 1988. After winning the nomination, he want back to his day job for a bit.
[ Parent ]
Different state
But you would think they would learn from Ned Lamont's 2006 vacation.
[ Parent ]
Can't say
Well find out if he wins the Dem nomination for Governor.
[ Parent ]
Doug Flutie.
Like Rocky he even has his own statue.  Course there is the small matter of him previously endorsing Scott Brown.  By 2012 can we say it's a "youthful indiscretion"?

But seriously I'd go with Joe Kennedy.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

this is my issue w coakley/brown
for 24 of my 25 years on this earth i have lived in massachusetts and consider myself the fairly standard new englander of my age bracket and this is how i am interpreting what will happen tomorrow

i did not vote for coakley in the primary, and even should she win tomorrow, im fairly certain that it will be the last time i check her name. i voted for my current congress man, mike capuano as i felt that he would have fit it teddy shoes much better than ms coakley. in the primaries i felt capuano would be a great senator, i thought coakley would be a decent one

clearly, a lot has changed since december. coakley assumed that she would simply walk right into the seat and there for laid back and did nothing as a young, telegenic conservative came out of nowhere to, for all intents and purposes, be favored to win this seat and she has the gaul to be flaberghasted at what is happening around her. should brown win tomorrow it wont be because he ran a groundbreaking campaign, itll be because coakley dropped the ball. coakley had the arogance to assume that she was the self annointed sucessor to teddy, and in doing so, she lost the image that would have secured her election.

however, with all of that said, i am still voting for her tomorrow. the vote that i cast will have nation wide implications. it will effect people from cambridge to casper, wy and how people cannot take into account the greater good when they enter the ballot box boggles my mind. i know the lesser of two evils isnt exactly  the way to get out the vote, but this time it is. scott brown would be a horrid representative for the people of massachusetts. hell, hes not that great of a fit for wrentham (his senate district), and while i think martha would be a good senator, im voting for someone else in the 2012 primary. there are better fits for the commonwealth out there, but between coakley and brown, u bet ur ass im taking coakley

25. gay jewish male. amherst, ma

I couldn't of agree more
Capuano would of been a fantastic Senator. He's a solid progressie and a bit of a firebrand. If he would of won we be talking about some other race and not this. If Brown does win tommorrow which I think he won't hopefully Mije will run again. Scott will be crushed.
[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure
I'm willing to bet that Capuano would have taken this race for granted until early January too.  The difference is that he probably would have run a good campaign in the last two weeks, and beaten Brown by about 10%.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
That's the difference, he would of been a better campaigner and wouldn't of been inept and come off as dumb as Coakley has.
[ Parent ]
Coakley
also has a problem with controlling what she said. I was surprised that Coakley's comment about no terrorists in Afghanistan didn't make its way into an attack ad.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
That's where the dumb part comes in
Also although not as big as what you said she referred Boston Red Sox Curt Schilling as a Yankee. Big no no in Boston.
[ Parent ]
When I first heard that
I honestly thought that she was trying to attack Schilling and trying to paint him as not being from Boston.  It didn't occur to me immediately that she knew nothing about baseball.
[ Parent ]
Yep and i'm sure that
Didn't go over well at all with the Red Sox faithful. To be honest Smith, the woman dosen't seem to know that much at all. I think she'll win but I sure as hell won't celebrate because we would be replacing a legend like Teddy Kennedy with a inept milquetoast Dem in Martha Coakley. Sorry for the harsh words here but quite frankly, I don't give a damn. Part of me wants her to win because of Ted and because of HCR. The other half wants me to let her go down in flames as punishment for being inept, a poor campaigner and taking the race for granted againist a teabagger.
[ Parent ]
As far as Schilling goes
he's a right-wing evangelical.  I doubt I could really embrace him even if I was a die-hard Red Sox fan.  He's a first class asshole.

As far as Coakley, well all I really care is that she's a rubber stamp for Obama.  Nobody will replace Ted Kennedy, and Coakley is not going to do much.  But Scott Brown, well he would be an appropriate senator for Alabama, not for MA.  This guy is a teabagging wingnut, and is dangerous.  And I'm pretty sure that he's what we're gonna get, like it or not.

What an embarrassment.

[ Parent ]
I don't think Brown will win
But your right about everything else. This is an embarassment pure and simple and all the Coakley supporters here who thought she was better than Capuano, well what you think now? JimMartin4senate?

As for Coakley voting record, i'm pretty sure she attach herself to the President if she wins, she better if she wants to redeem herself.

And your right, no one will EVER replace Teddy Kennedy, the man is a icon to the state like Robert Byrd is to West Virginia. No one whatever it's Coakley, Capuano, Kahzei etc could fill his shoes.

Right now I can bet the man is literally rolling over in his grave. Sorry this came down to this Ted, I really am.

[ Parent ]
I hope he doesn't
I agree, this election literally makes me sick. I've been following politics for over twenty-five years and if she loses I will be royally pissed. The elections of '04, '00, and '94 were no walk in the park but this will really hurt. Why did the party fall asleep at the wheel for this?
[ Parent ]
It makes all of us sick
It makes me puke thinking about it and i've been following politics far less than you have. To answer your question about falling asleep behind the wheel. Easy. We thought we had it in the bag and Coakley took a month off from campaigning. 'Nuff said.
[ Parent ]
Brightside?
If there is a brightside to this at all, it's that maybe this will shake some of the complacency that has set in amongst the Democrats. It probably won't stop the blame game and circular firing side that usually takes place after something like this. Probably not much of a brightside at all? Go Martha!!
[ Parent ]
Yep that's all we can say at this point.
Go Martha.
[ Parent ]
Even she wasn't THAT dumb
She said Schilling was a Yankee fan, not a Yankee. OK, that is only negligibly less stupid...

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Regardless
She said in some way Curt Schilling was a Yankee whatever player or fan. That dosen't go over well with Sox Nation. Pan your from NY, you should know how intense the rivalry is between the Yankees and Red Sox, unless your a Mets fan in which case I terribly feel sorry for you. Same if you were a Rangers, Knicks or Islanders fan lol.
[ Parent ]
I'm a Yankees fan
And I definitely know how idiotic that statement was. I'm just being accurate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
It was very idiotic
And even though i'm not a Mass resident, I know people up there take their beloved Sox very seriously kind of how it's like here in Pittsburgh with the Steelers.
[ Parent ]
Capuano was also more than just a liberal.
He was someone with working class appeal who could connect with culturally conservative working class voters the way Edward Kennedy was able to in his electoral routs.

In Capuano's case that's the difference between being the Mayor of Sommerville and being the District Attorney for Middlesex County.  And once the advantages of name recognition and money that Coakley had in the primary evaporated her lack of the skill set of a seasoned politician came home to roost.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
I wish
the primary was a free for all in that case. Martha Coakley would of suffered a Terry McAulliffe like implosion and we might of gotten a better candidate out of it as well.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
If ever there was an argument
For a competitive primary anywhere then this is it.
[ Parent ]
Joe Kennedy
The real one.  
BEN AFFLECK
They want to prop up a good-looking empty suit? Fine. We'll give 'em a better looking, even emptier suit!

Hey, he IS from Massachusetts... and as we learned from State of Play, he can walk and talk like a real life congresscritter.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

And go to jail like a real Congresscritter...
Sorry for the spoiler of the movie. Hey Ben as always talked like he has political ambitions so who knows if Al Franken can do it so can Ben Afleck can as well but I rather see Capuano run.  
[ Parent ]
Man, my first prediction on Swing State
and I have to hope I'm wrong

Brown   49
Coakley 48

I have to go with Nate Silver and his 75 percent chance of a Brown win.  

Oops sorry, please ignore. Wrong thread.

[ Parent ]
Well
the finger pointing in Washington. This article's an interesting read, besides mentioning the snub at the Red Sox, the going dark for a month, there are some things Coakley did to screw herself over

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Chickenshit unnamed sources
Taking shots at the president. Sorry, Corzine - crappy governor, Deeds and Coakley - crappy candidates.
[ Parent ]
Couldn't agree More
One thing I hate when I read news artcles is when I read quotes from people who refused to reveal who they are. I can't say how many political stories i've read from unnamed WH Aides, Congressional Aides and political stratgists. And yes taking a swipe at the President is wrong at this juncture. Like you said Corzine was a bad Governor and Deeds and Coakley were awful candidates. Obama can't help that, man's not Jesus and neither is Bill Clinton or Howard Dean and etc.
[ Parent ]
Come on people!
Today we rally! Tomorrow we look at the results and plan for 2012.

FWIW
Commenters over at Blue Mass Group seem in general to be reporting very heavy early turnout.

http://www.bluemassgroup.com/d...

Male, 23, DC-At Large

Barney Frank, period.
As I said in the other thread, he wrote in his memoir his dream exit from politics would be getting chosen to be in Obama's cabinet and capstone his career by being the first out person in the cabinet.

Hopefully he'll say that Obama is not taking any chances on us gays and that he should run in 2012, serve a term and go down in history as the first out person to be elected to the US Senate.

And Ive been hesitant to phone bank for Coakley, I dunno, Ive just been too miffed and she doesnt deserve my minutes.  Ive also gotten quite lazy when it comes to electoral politics away from my computer.  If this is really close and she loses, I'll be absolutely ticked at myself for not at least doing a call sheet or something.  Phone bank for Coakley everyone!  Do it for Teddy!

Per Norah O'Donnell, turnout is low in Coakley "strongholds," very high in Brown's


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
What are they calling "strongholds"?
From the anecdotal accounts I've read, turnout is reported to be unusually high pretty much everywhere.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
O'Donnell now says MA Dems believe Coakley's down 10
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...

On TV this morning, she specifically citied "inside Boston" having low turnout and "outside Boston" having high.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
That's not what the Globe is reporting
http://twitter.com/bostonupdate

"More than 55,000 ballots cast before noon in Boston"

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
I've heard the opposite
my friend in Tewksbury (which McCain won by 55 votes) said no one was voting this morning.

A friend in Somerville said turnout was "astronomical"

[ Parent ]
The article I posted at the bottom of the predictions thread
(which I'm too lazy to repost) also mentioned high turnout in Boston.

http://wbztv.com/local/scott.b...

It also mentions 60% turnout in Barnstable on Cape Cod. While that area overall should go for Brown I would imagine Barnstable (the town where Hyannis is located) would be pro-Kennedy.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
ahahaha
I said I was too lazy to repost it and then without thinking I did. perhaps a sign that this election is driving me off the deep end.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It's over

[ Parent ]
Counterpoint: It's 2:42 Eastern
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
^Win comment.
I admit things look bleak, but if polls were more important than or even as important as the results, Hillary would have been dead after New Hampshire. Let's worry but not panic.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
MA-Sen: Who Should Take on Scott Brown in 2012? | 84 comments

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