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NY-Sen-B: Gillibrand Leads Ford in Primary

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jan 15, 2010 at 3:35 PM EST


Marist (pdf): (1/13-14, registered voters, 11/16-17 in parentheses)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 43
Harold Ford Jr. (D): 24
Undecided: 33
(MoE: ±5%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 45 (45)
George Pataki (R): 42 (47)
Undecided: 13 (8)

Harold Ford Jr. (D): 36
George Pataki (R): 42
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±3.5%)

With the once-fanciful idea of Tennessee's Harold Ford Jr. running for the Senate in New York seeming a little closer to reality with each week, Marist decided to poll the question. (This comes despite various Democratic bigwigs trying to warn Ford off -- this time, it was fellow centrist Martin Frost's turn.) Marist finds that Kirsten Gillibrand has a large edge over Ford in the Democratic primary, although with a substantial number of unknowns, suggesting that Gillibrand doesn't have things locked down and that people don't really know what to make of Ford yet (if they've even heard of him, which I suspect most New Yorkers haven't).

In the general, they find that Gillibrand has improved her position against Republican ex-Gov. George Pataki slightly over the last few months, while Ford loses by 6 (although, again, that may have to do with Ford not being well-known). Also, there's very low likelihood of Pataki running; while he hasn't ruled it out, his actions lately have pointed more toward a dark horse run for the Presidency. In fact, another Republican is tired of waiting, and went ahead and declared his candidacy: Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman. Given the GOP's recruitment woes in this race, he may be the best they can put forward.

What I'd like to see, though (and I'm a little disappointed Marist didn't poll on the question) is how Ford would fare as an independent candidate a general election matchup against Gillibrand. To me, this seems like the only way he seems like he'd ever actually get anywhere in New York, by trying, a la Joe Lieberman 2006, to grab the center and most of the right with a marginal Republican having little effect in a general election. Closed primaries in New York prevent him from taking advantage of GOPers and right-leaning indies, but the general election doesn't have that problem. Taegan Goddard, in particular, has been wondering out loud about this angle, and he's saying today that Ford didn't completely shoot down the idea (albeit in a statement saying he would be a Democrat but loaded with weasel words):

I'm a proud Democrat, and I think I'm going to remain that. I think Democrats are looking for a stand-up, independent guy to represent them in this race... So, in that sense, I would run as an independent.

RaceTracker Wiki: NY-Sen-B

Crisitunity :: NY-Sen-B: Gillibrand Leads Ford in Primary
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Ford can wait until September to run as an Indy!
Due to New York's unique election laws Ford doesn't need to decide now to run as an Independent. New York allows minor parties to cross endorse. He can run in the Democrat primary while at the same time run on a third party line.

Jacob Javitz did this in 1980 after he lost to D'Amato in the Republican primary. He stayed in and ran in the general as a Liberal.

If Ford wants to run in the general as an Independent he doesn't need to make that decision until after he loses the primary.

This is what Lieberman did in CT.


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Would be rather expensive...
...getting your own ballot line requires a lot of signatures and is a rather expensive process.  Especially for someone like Harold Ford who isn't likely to have too many young volunteers wasing the burden.

So I don't think he'd go that route unless he could somehow get the Indpendence Party nod which is it's own little freakshow of fiefdoms where anything is possible.

Pro-tip for Harold: Give the Independence Party huge amounts of money.  Worked for Bloomy!

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
Pataki
Why are people still polling Pataki?  I thought he already closed the door.

I'll be honest, I'm a Harold Ford fan. (waits for the boos) I still this run is run is misguided and flat out a waste of his time and energy.  I think it will be good to see Gillibrand answer questions and since no ACTUAL New York Democrat did, I guess Harold felt the need to do this.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


Did Pataki close the door?
I know Guilliani did and wonder if you're confusing them, but Pataki may have as well.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
didn't know there was such a thing
but even a Harold Ford fan can agree that his NYT interview contained one of the all-time worst answers to an easy question:

Q. Jets or Giants?

A. I had breakfast about every morning when I am in town, or I should say, several mornings, at the Regency. I see my friends the Tisches. Steve Tisch is my close personal friend. I have been to more Giants games. I spent the holidays, I had lunch over the holidays with Woody Johnson. We met for the first time. I am happy for his team.



[ Parent ]
Bahahahahaha!
That is just hysterically bad.

[ Parent ]
Boooo!
Hisssss!

:)

We agree this run is misguided, though!

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
GIllibrand leading
good to see Gillibrand pulling out a lead over Pataki, whose more than likely not going to run. If she's leading Pataki then she has a chance to pull a CLinton/Schumer/Spitzer blowout against a sacrificial lamb    

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

I don't see that happening
    She's still not that popular, or should I say not that well known. Plus you have the fact that the national environment for Democrats which sucks.

[ Parent ]
Why the hell didn't ford just stay in Tennessee?
He could have made a run at the senate again in 2012,  

facepalm

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


Cause
Corker's safer than Alexander.

[ Parent ]
I don't understand it
He refused to call the RNC campaign ad from his '06 race "racist," but in moving out of TN he tacitly acknowledges he could never win statewide because of racism.

Unreal.

He should have run again for his old congressional seat, and waited for Alexander or Corker to retire.

The way things are going with the TEA Party folks, Corker--along with his moderate beliefs--could be primaried in 2012.

You never know.

Ford's ambition is getting the better of him.


[ Parent ]
Wall Street isn't in TN
I'm not big on class warfare really, but we know Harold wanted to make a lot of money and he's a bright guy/smooth talker.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


A Ford run will be the best thing for Gillibrand...
Why? Cos she will beat the living be-jesus out of him and better secure her position as a senator. The guy is way out of his league and clearly is a tool for some aggrieved group of NY money bags...whatever!

I never once believed Gillibrand was vulnerable to any primary or GOP opponent b/c she has the money, muscle and is strategically well-positioned (upstater, female, young fresh face, generally toes the party line) to win. If she could have been taken down, it would have been right after she was appointed, but that ship has long sailed. She truly is the luckiest Dem Senator running in 2010.

Whether Ford be a "red-neck limousine liberal" or just plain dumb, he has managed to do for Gillibrand in 1 wk, what she could not accomplish in 1 yr.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


We're overlooking one super-key stat...
Gillibrand has a 24/51 approval. That's worse than Paterson.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Remember
Marist uses a excellent, good, fair, or poor system. Only 18% put her at poor.

[ Parent ]
You don't add "fair" to the unfavorable number
At least, not in my book.  

[ Parent ]
Thanks, but
This sort of thing should normally go in the open thread, which is only one post down, anyway.

[ Parent ]
Poll reality check
There is no way in hell Kirsten Gillibrand gets defeated by a Republican in New York this November. The fact that polls say she might is a good reason to distrust all polls that say incumbent Democrats are doing worse than you would expect. Normally-Democratic voters who tell pollsters they will vote Republican are bluffing, but they will vote Democratic on Election Day.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

Oh, there's certainly a way in hell she gets defeated if she's got an approval below 30%


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Ford standing next to a Confederate flag
Liz Feld declines on run, clearing GOP field for Bruce Blakeman
Gillibrand needs a stronger media profile.
A lot of people don't know who she is besides being that woman appointed by Patterson.

She needs to do more to get herself on the news shows in the way Chuck Schumer always is.  She needs to get a higher profile now because unless she defines herself she risks having herself defined for her once an opponent emerges.

Luckily so far she has no viable opponent unless Pataki decides to put down his hash pipe and stop daydreaming he has any shot in hell of being President.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...


If Blakeman's the GOP nominee, I'd probably place this in Lean Dem for now
She NEEDS to get that approval up (how she does this I'm not sure), especially if Harold Ford's gonna spend the next months beating her up. Blakeman's not a great nominee, but he's no tea-bagger either; he's basically a right-of-center, Long Island, Al D'Amato-type.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]

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