Public Policy Polling (1/11-12, registered voters, no trend lines):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 42
Danny Tarkanian (R): 50
Undecided: 8
Harry Reid (D-inc): 41
Sue Lowden (R): 51
Undecided: 8
Shelly Berkley (D): 39
Danny Tarkanian (R): 47
Undecided: 14
Shelly Berkley (D): 38
Sue Lowden (R): 46
Undecided: 17
Oscar Goodman (D): 41
Danny Tarkanian (R): 41
Undecided: 18
Oscar Goodman (D): 42
Sue Lowden (R): 40
Undecided: 18
Ross Miller (D): 34
Danny Tarkanian (R): 45
Undecided: 22
Ross Miller (D): 34
Sue Lowden (R): 44
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Pretty ugly stuff, all around. For the Harry Reid match-ups, PPP is basically on the same page as Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon. We've thought long and hard about this decision, but the choice, in the end, is unavoidable: this race is no longer a tossup. Much like Chris Dodd, Reid has been spending a significant amount of money on his re-election already, and he has no positive results to show for it. Voters know Harry Reid, and they just don't like him: his job performance rating is at a disastrous 36-58.
In our conversations with DC Democrats, they have always stressed that Harry Reid has one big advantage over his Republican opponents: he'll have an enormous amount of money at his disposal to nuke his competition. While it's true that Reid will have all the resources he needs (and then some), money won't buy him love, and the usual "But the Republicans are worse!" argument (while also true) will be more likely to fall on deaf ears in races like this one where Reid is vulnerable to voter ire over Senatorial process. I also expect that, once the GOP primary is settled out, enough resources will flow to the Republican nominee so that he or she will be able to make their case against Reid. This race started off bad, and the trend is only getting worse -- gaffes like Reid's leaked "Negro" comment the other day only serve as exclamation points on how much difficulty the Majority Leader is facing. SSP is moving our rating of this race from Tossup to Lean Republican.
Also disturbing is the fact that Reid's would-be Democratic successors, 1st CD Rep. Shelly Berkley, Secretary of State Ross Miller, and Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman (who is actually now an Independent, but whatever), are also in tough races against Lowden and Tarkanian.
At this point, though, I would have to take any of the above options over Reid. The silver lining here is that Berkley and Miller are, amazingly enough, somehow just as (or more!) unknown than Lowden and Tarkanian. Berkley and Miller are met with 46% and 66% "Not Sure" opinion ratings, respectively, while Lowden gets 49% and Tarkanian 43%. On the flip side, a Reid retirement could also lead to the candidacy of 2nd CD Rep. Dean Heller, who could prove to be the most formidable opponent the GOP could run.
RaceTracker Wiki: NV-Sen |
