Google Ads


Site Stats

VA-SD37: Results Open Thread (Update: Dems Win)

by: James L.

Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 8:17 PM EST


9:45PM: There's more action in California, if you're in the need for another liveblog fix. Californianintexas has what you crave.
9:10PM: Democrats now control the Virginia Senate by 22-18. Holding control of that chamber will be crucial in order to get any veto leverage over whatever terrible redistricting map the House of Delegates attempts to produce after the census.
9:02PM: Democrat Dave Marsden has won by 317 votes. Nice.
8:49PM: Hunt (R) would have to win 67% of the outstanding votes in order to pull off a win here. Doesn't look likely.
8:46PM: 38 precincts in, and Marsden is ahead by 368.
8:36PM: 37 precincts in, and Marsden is up by 406.
8:31PM: 36 precincts now in, and Marsden is up by just under 300 votes. Come on baby, hold together...
8:27PM: 32 of 40 precincts in, and things got a lot tighter: Marsden leads by 376 votes (2%).
8:21PM: 28 precincts now in, and Marsden (D) leads by 847 votes or 5.5%.

There's a special election of note tonight in Virginia, where the open seat left vacant by new Republican AG Ken Cuccinelli is being decided. Strangely enough in times like these, Democratic Del. Dave Marsden is actually in the lead, beating former Fairfax Co. School Board member Steve Hunt by about 5 points with 23 of 40 precincts reporting. I haven't looked at where the votes are coming from, but if Democrats can reassert some strength in NoVA with a win here, that will be a real shot in the arm for the dispirited Virginia Democratic Party.

Results: VA SBoE
James L. :: VA-SD37: Results Open Thread (Update: Dems Win)
Tags: , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
VA-SD37: Results Open Thread (Update: Dems Win) | 71 comments
Fingers crossed.
Marsden still up 52.7-27.2 with 28 of 40 in.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
NLS says
Marsden overperforming in R areas and underperforming in D areas.  Did his Republican Lite Creigh Deeds impersonation work?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Do you know anything about his campaign?
Or are you just speculating that he ran a Deeds-like race?
[ Parent ]
I read that
probably on NLS or Blue Virginia and took it at face value.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Also
It'd be weird for me to make up something so obscure from wholecloth.  Just sayin'.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
From NLS
....Republicans even nominated an incredibly weak candidate in Steve Hunt.  But Dave Marsden has not been able to take advantage- running a bi-polar campaign that agrees this is a base turnout election, but then airs TV ads talking about his expertise in budget cuts and holding the line on taxes.


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
You can't trust NLS, guys. Seriously, don't trust NLS.
Ben Tribbett, whose site that is, is a childish and petty young guy who holds a lot of personal grudges stemming from his personal political dealings in NoVA, and one is against Marsden, going back years.  And he lets that cloud his analysis.  In fact he wrote Marsden's obituary days ago in this race, and called the race for Hunt tonight as soon as the polls closed at 7:00.

Ben's had it coming for a long time to have his childishness thrown back in his face, and this was it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
But you gotta admit

it's one of the most entertaining political blogs out there.  

Ben lets the other side post nasty remarks and taunts and putdowns too.  That makes for, er, a unique tone.  Oh, and he apologizes when he goes overboard, at least sufficiently often.

I think he admitted to having some kind of medically acknowledged condition at some point, some mild form of bipolar disorder or similar iirc.

[ Parent ]
Absolutely, he knows how to blog......
Ben knows how to blog in a way that draws and keeps an audience, and that's damn hard to do--especially for a state-level blog.  I've tried to swear off his site more than once in the recent past, but failed.  The key is that he really does have inside information that he occasionally posts, and he really is a superb number-cruncher and knows voting behavior right down to the precinct level in Fairfax County and elsewhere.  The other state-level blogs I read are much more "on message," which makes for a more Democratic-friendly environment but also gets boring without insider tidbits or any uniquely strong analysis of politics.

I didn't know he had bipolar or some similar thing, that can explain a lot, and perhaps it explains why other Virginia bloggers lay off him and don't call him out.  Still, he needs to be more forthcoming about it if that causes his erratic behavior on the blog, and further he needs to control it better since the written word always allows for more pause and thought than verbal or in-person interaction.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Marsden ran a pretty centrist campaign
although from what I heard, his campaign got better in the last couple weeks of the campaign.
[ Parent ]
As expected...
... easily won the other seat up tonight.

BTW Not Larry Sabato called the race for the Hunt right at poll closing but has now retracted his call.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Should have said
as expected the Republican easily won the other senate seat up for election.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Ignore NLS
He's had a grudge against Marsden for years. It's pretty pathetic, really.

The bumpiness starts now -- four of the remaining precincts were won by Cuccinelli in 2007, while three were won by Oleszek.

NLS is a very strange blogger.
His obsessive desire to see Gerry Connolly in prison is what tipped me off that he may be a few fries short of a happy meal.
[ Parent ]
Tightening
51-49 with 32 of 40 in.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Map of results
Map of results here. Can also see similar maps from past elections, like November's AG race with Cuccinelli (occupying this seat at the time).
thx for the maps
Alas i think Marsden will fall just short - <250 votes :(

I could very easily be wrong though - hope so

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

[ Parent ]
More tightening
50.7-49.3 with 4 precincts left.  Anyone know what's left?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
from ag race
1 strong repub
1 weak repub
2 weak dem

2010 Race Tracker Wiki
[ Parent ]
no
2 strong repub
1 weak repub
1 weak dem

2010 Race Tracker Wiki
[ Parent ]
I think Marsden's won
Left are Burke (56-44 Dem in '07, and Marsden's home turf), Orange (52-48 Republican in '07), and Virginia Run (62-38 Republican in '07). I don't think that's enough for the Republican to overcome Marsden's current lead.
[ Parent ]
From your lips
to God's ear.  This would be a welcome dose of good news.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
dude
hope u r right

2010 Race Tracker Wiki
[ Parent ]
yeah, there are only 3 precincts left
if they are average-sized precincts, that means that there are approx 1700 votes outstanding.  Marsden is up 400.  That means Hunt would have to win the outstanding votes 1050 to 650 (61.7% to 38.3%)to tie.
[ Parent ]
And the three outstanding?

One is
in Marsden home turf of Burke.

One is in deep red West.

One looks like it may be swingy, east of Burke.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Up by rougly 400
Three more precincts left, one just came in and Marsden gains roughly 100 votes.
Marsden just added
another 100 in the Burke district.  Hasn't been posted on the SOS yet.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Orange precinct in
Marsden only lost it by 38 votes. That leaves one precinct. He's won.
[ Parent ]
isnt there two left? n/t
[ Parent ]
Not with Orange in.
It's not on SOS site yet.  But there's only one left with Orange in.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
In the remaining precinct in 2007 (Virginia Run #915)
Cuccinelli won by 220 votes (584 to 364).
[ Parent ]
Turnout will not be that heavy
Looks like a win for the good guys.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Virginia Run
That's deep crimson, isn't it? What percentage does Hunt need for this?  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
Ganja break?


34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Sure, why not.


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
yeh
they must be picking it too :)

2010 Race Tracker Wiki
[ Parent ]
WE WIN WE WIN WE WIN n/t
Campaigns matter

You hear that Martha?
Do you hear it?  Conspiracy says CAMPAIGNS MATTER!

Come on Marsden!!! Fly up and show Martha how it's done!!!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Indeed
And I'll take a 317 vote win next Tuesday night too thank you very much.
[ Parent ]
317 votes
Not so comfortable, but a win is a win--as long as it's a win. Unless someone made a transcription error somewhere, I think this is probably the end of the store.

D+1 in the VA Senate.

We were expected to lose here
NLS called a loss as soon as the polls closed.  This is very exciting.  Don't ho hum it dude.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Like I said in a previous thread
NLS is unhinged when it comes to Dave Marsden. He's had a ridiculous grudge against the guy for years. He has the same ridiculous grudge against Gerry Connolly.
[ Parent ]
Previous Results
What were the results of the previous election in this district?  
[ Parent ]
In 2007
The Republican won by 92 votes.

https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virg...

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Thank You
Local elections are always very interesting
[ Parent ]
So, this is a landslide. n/t

:D
[ Parent ]
The differnce was the absentee ballots
Marsden won the absentees 800-395

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Dems have done so
well lately with early voting and absentees.  Hope Martha Coakley does as well with it...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I'm encouraged
That she has Hillary's NH primary GOTV team. But this goes to show you can win in abad environment. Unfortunately doig poorly where byou should be winning easily due to a poor campaign drags everyone down and makes that environment worse. Like retirements leading to more retirements and making control maybe look vulnerable. Self-fulfilling prophecy/vicious circle.
[ Parent ]
I need a new keyboard

[ Parent ]
And HOW! I had to read it 3 times! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Well, I was right about one thing
I didn't expect the margin of victory to exceed 51%. I didn't think Marsden would win, however, so that was a welcome surprise.

Now comes defending Marsden's House of Delegates seat, which will be tough, but doable. It's slightly more Democratic than SD-37, so it will just require finding the right candidate.

What's the PVI
of this senate seat and the delegate seat?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Recent statewide performance
SD-37:

57-43 McDonnell
55-45 Bolling
54-46 Cuccinelli (yes, he underperformed in his own district)
55-44 Obama
54-45 Webb
55-43 Kaine
52-48 Bush (2004)

HD-41:

55-45 McDonnell
51-49 Bolling
52-48 Cuccinelli
57-42 Obama
55-44 Webb
57-41 Kaine
50-49 Bush (2004)

[ Parent ]
As expected
Creigh Deeds performance doesn't mean squat.
[ Parent ]
Not sure you can really say that.
It seems the results didn't match up with any of the previous statewide candidates.  Both parties' candidates underperformed their more successful candidates.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Has Virginia ever had split control in
a redistricting before?

Is there a procedure for deadlock other than a court drawn map?

Unsure
But there's a bad Republican gerrymander as it exists now. It turned out that they spread themselves too thin in some places. That, and the blue zone in NoVa expanded considerably in the intervening decade.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03
[ Parent ]
Yup
That's what happens when you make assumptions about "55/45" districts.  
[ Parent ]
Going back to when Holton was Governor...
...I believe that was the first time since Reconstruction that non-Democrats had a hand in Redistricting (Holton was Virginia's first GOP Governor since Reconstruction). In 1980, Virginia had a Democratic Legislature and a GOP Governor. In 1990, Wilder was Governor and the Democrats controlled both houses. In 2000, the GOP controlled both houses and the Governor's Mansion. This will be the first time in my political memory that different parties controlled chambers of the State House during Redistricting.

 

[ Parent ]
And so now
In a couple of hours we head off to the oc for the special election results down there:
http://www.ocvote.com/live/72n...

2010 Race Tracker Wiki
Can you give a quick run down of the race
Who's running, who's favored etc. Thanks.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Here ya go.
The candidates are Republican Chris Norby, Democrat John MacMurray, and Green Jane Rands. The combined Republican vote in the special primary was 69%, so it is pretty much Norby's to lose.

District details can be found at the Race Tracker. I will begin tracking the results when the polls close in 45 minutes at the diary I posted.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
How reliable is the Senate majority?
Are there any Democrats that would fuck us over in redistricting?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Well that's a hard question to answer......
There are definitely some conservative Democrats in the state Senate.  And 22-18 isn't a big margin.

But redistricting tends to be a very partisan issue, and not an ideological one, so it's hard to see conservative Democrats defecting on any kind of conservative "principle."  After all redistricting in operation is transparently for partisan gain, and if you're a conservative Democrat, you still gain a personal benefit from more Democrats, even liberal ones, being elected, and you only lose clout personally from more Republicans, even moderate ones, being elected.  So if you're going to side with the Republicans, you might as well switch parties beforehand.  And there's no incentive right now for any conservative state Senate Democrat to switch parties, since indeed staying a Democrat and dangling out the hope of the occasional vote with Republicans maximizes any conservative Democrat's personal influence.

And it's hard to see what other considerations could cause a state Senator to join Republicans in redistricting.

McDonnell has made noises, taking a page from Obama's "bipartisanship," about pushing for a "fair" redistricting, but with divided government (which thank God Virginia still has thanks to Marsden's win yesterday), we'll get something akin to that anyway.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I should have edited my subject line......
I called it a "hard question to answer" as I was still thinking out loud, but the substance of my comment really answered it:  NO, it's NOT likely any state Senate Democrat would fuck us over in redistricting.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I find myself doing that all the time

[ Parent ]
Besides looking at conservatives...
...are there any other Democrats with mis-placed emphasis on fairness or communities of interest or some other bullshit that would lead them to vote for a map that would harm Democrats.  Think Feingold and his "I'm voting to confirm Ashcroft because Bush deserves to have his Cabinet.)

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
The short answer still is "NO"......
Again, drawing the map isn't like anything else in politics, it's partisan by nature, and even in following objective "principles" like geographic compactness or putting together people of "common interests," you're not going to see a Democrat vote for a map opposed by the state Senate Democratic caucus.  You can meet all the objective criteria and fuck Democrats, you can meet all the objective criteria and fuck Republicans, and you can meet all the objective criteria and be fair.  So the bottom line is going to be defending one's own party.

And if you dissent on redistricting of all things, that probably portends a party switch anyway.  And no one is likely to switch parties.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
VA-SD37: Results Open Thread (Update: Dems Win) | 71 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox