MA-Sen: Coakley Lead Down to 2 in Rasmussen

Rasmussen (1/11, likely voters, 1/4 in parentheses):

Martha Coakley (D): 49 (50)

Scott Brown (R): 47 (41)

Joe Kennedy (L): 3 (NA)

Not sure: 2 (7)

(MoE: ±3%)

Rasmussen finds a tightening Senate race, with a two-point lead for Democratic AG Martha Coakley over Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, as undecideds seem to have broken in his favor over the last week (where Coakley had a nine-point lead). Barack Obama still has a 57% approval in this poll, so Coakley’s continuing to have trouble sealing the deal with Democrats and D-leaning indies.

Taegan Goddard is also teasing news of the latest DSCC internal poll; the one from last week had a 14-point edge, but allegedly the most recent one taken this week has a 5-point lead for Coakley instead. So, the increased DSCC and DNC involvement that we discussed earlier in the digest isn’t being done out of an abundance of caution, but out of real concern over a narrowing gap.

RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Sen

86 thoughts on “MA-Sen: Coakley Lead Down to 2 in Rasmussen”

  1. If we lose this seat and can’t get healthcare and many other things through Congress because of the filibusters, then we are going to have a really tough time in a lot of other elections this year. The base is not excited at all, or at least doesn’t seem to care about the ramifications of staying home. Regardless of how well Coakley has run her campaign, this is an issue of turnout and people should still be motivated enough to vote for her knowing what will happen if Brown wins.  If this effect is happening in a state like Massachusetts, I am really worried about November.

  2. I’m on the other side of the country, so I don’t know the ads that are supposedly running v. Brown.  

  3. Is all I have to say, we will see what happens next week, I suspect that unless they release a new poll like the day before election day that says Coakley is leading by a wider margin that 2, I will see ras as an unreliable pollster.  Not that I currently do find them reliable.

  4. a special election. Anything can happen. We can all agree that the people who hate Obama are going to be out in force and the Dem turnout will be dramatically less. This isn’t a race between Coakley and Brown anymore. This is a race to determine if health care reform is stopped or not. Which is why the US Chamber of Commerce and other conservative groups are getting involved. I wonder if the NRSC is going to involved soon.

    If we lose this seat, the media isn’t going to stop talking about it for weeks and we’re going to be all very sad.

  5. …Rasmussen has finally struck. I fully anticipate PPP to show a five point Brown edge within the next few days.

  6. But honstly brown is one of the better republicans. I honestly believe he’s a true independent. He’d be closer to Collins or Snow than palin or beck. He’s pro-choice, kinda pro-gay and after HCR, he could be a 60th vote on a few things. He would remember, be up for re-election in 2014, and ma wouldn’t tolerate strong conservatism.

    It’s still unlikely but a senator brown would not be the end of the world.

  7. that Rasmussen doesn’t have him in the lead; they’d be the most likely pollster to.

    At least the Democratic machine has finally been jolted awake during this.

    Though if Coakley ends up losing she’ll be crucified on the steps of the state legislature.

  8. Martha Coakley should be winning this election with 60% of the vote. How the hell is she having problems with Democrats? Is it more an issue with the campaign she has (or hasn’t by some accounts) been running, or does it have to do with the electorate?

    I’m vaguely reminded of the 2007 special House election between Niki Tsongas and Jim Ogonowski where the Dem won by much less than should have. I can handle a 52-46 Coakley win over Brown, but I can’t handle a loss.

    Massachusetts is probably the most Democratic state aside from Rhode Island. The entire Congressional delegation, 90% of the state legislature and all the statewide offices are Democratic. It can’t be understated how much sentimental value this Senate seat holds for Democrats. This shouldn’t be close.

  9.   Seriously not everyone can screw up a campaign that really should be a gimme. I think if she looses she should write a book, “How to choke away an election in one of the most blue states in the country.”  

  10. “Red invades blue”

    That makes me think of the Redcoats occupying colonial era Massachusetts and attacking the minutemen, who of course wore blue uniforms. And even if that’s reading too much into it, I still think that saying his campaign is “invading” his state due to its blue tendencies is a little weird considering he is trying to get people to like him! I hope we don’t lose the seat to someone like this…

  11. A video clip of Scott Brown’s debate performance is currently the fifth most viewed video IN THE WORLD today on youtube.

    …how?..wha?…seriously!?

    Look, at this stage he deserves to win the bloody election.

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