Reid's

toast. I hate to say it, but a pile of crap can run against Reid and win, as long as that pile is a Republican.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Mon Jan 11, 2010 at 23:48:19 PM UTC

No, a pile of crap Dem would beat him too

Anyone can beat Reid.  Someone just needs to.

As for Rory, jesus, give it up.  You can't win.  Goodman needs to be drafted to run as a Dem... and if Harry retires, we will win Nevada.  If the Reid's are allowed to be left alone, we'll be crushed.

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by: tommypaine @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 01:35:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Totally toast

He should announce his retirement and fade away. He can proclaim a big win on healthcare as his legacy if he wants.

I mean, it's not like he hasn't had a full career.  

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by: andgarden @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 06:32:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Reid

Needs to retire.  No way around it.  If he stays is, Sue Lowden is probably the next senator from Nevada, either that, or one of the other Repubs if they pull an upset in the primary.  

If there was ever a time for Shelley Berkley to get into the race, it's now.  She's our strongest candidate, and would likely hold the seat against the Repub challengers, who really aren't all that impressive.  I've heard rumors that she might be waiting on Ensign in 2012, but chances are he's going to retire then anyway because re-election would be futile.  Hell, if she won't go, Dina Titus might as well jump in.  She's got a tough re-election coming up anyway, so why not try to make the big jump now while the opportunity is there.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Mon Jan 11, 2010 at 23:56:37 PM UTC

Yeah, Reid's done

He and Blanche Lincoln retiring would be the most politically-astute acts possible.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 00:11:54 AM UTC

Someone educate me

Is Oscar Goodman a good mayor?  I don't know a thing about him, but since he's a Democrat I thought he may have some redeeming qualities.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 00:27:19 AM UTC

Yes, for Vegas

The guy was practically built to be mayor of Vegas. I described him thusly in a previous thread:

In my opinion, he's a showy, ballsy, truth-telling, pragmatically progressive, drunken, super-charismatic hot mess headliner of a politician. He's like the Dos Equis' "Most Interesting Man In the World" mixed with your local "Chamber of Commerce" guy supercharged by Las Vegas and with an appropriately shady mob background to boot.

The downsides are that he's a loose cannon (although voters expect that of him and seem pretty forgiving of his gaffes), he could run into trouble in the Legislature as an indie, and his "mouthpiece for the mob" background.

I think one thing we can all agree on is that this would easily become among the most interesting races of the entire cycle if he does run. Oh--and he dropped his Democratic affiliation in preparation for an indie run, so if he does run, it'll almost certainly be as an independent, not a Democrat. (though I agree he'd probably drop-kick Rory Reid in a primary)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 01:33:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Goodman isn't a Democrat anymore

He's an Independent

http://www.kxnt.com/Mayor-Good...

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

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by: xcave @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 00:36:56 AM UTC

Goodman is thinking he needs to run as an Ind to win

because the Reid's are too powerful.  He just has to smell the coffee.  No one wants Rory Reid to be the nominee, not even Harry if rumors are true.

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by: tommypaine @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 01:37:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

How about Goodman run for Senator instead?

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

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by: Taget @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 00:50:42 AM UTC

mmm Rory Reid worse than John Cherry

I think if a Reid must retire, the first Reid in retire must be Rory Reid.

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by: abgin @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 01:20:35 AM UTC

Eh

NV Senate seat > NV Governors seat, unless you are from NV of course.

Both Reid's suck, one is getting his ass kicked in the gubernatorial for really no reason (why does he suck so hard in the polls?) and the other still uses the word negro.  ::sigh::

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by: Andrew @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 02:00:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I know

If i doubt about Harry Reid is because I have not evidence of another democrat can obtain better results.

In the case of Rory Reid, in same poll is O Goodman, a democrat until few weeks, and i think they are democrats what can improve O Goodman results in the polls.

Who can run and win Harry Reid's senate seat? Maybe Frankie Sue Del Papa? Bob Miller? Shelley Berkley?

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by: abgin @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 11:07:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

if Reid were to retire, who would / could

run instead?  Could Shelley Berkley win?

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by: bennytoothpick @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 02:32:23 AM UTC

Bingo, the toothpick finds the problem......

I think the political media in this instance have been pretty sharp to point out that there's no one out there who clearly does better than Harry this November.  Democrats there don't have anyone akin to Dick Blumenthal.  And I think it was a Politico piece that astutely pointed out that if Reid retires, bigger name Republicans like possibly Dean Heller will jump in, making it that much harder for whoever is the Democrat......do you really think bigger-name state GOPers will stand down for freakin' Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian and Sharron Angle for an open United States Senate seat?

On our side, the biggest names are Congressional Democrats, and even without BEING Harry Reid they potentially carries THAT as baggage in an anti-Washington environment that exclusively punishes Democrats.

Harry at least brings massive money to the table and the hope that maybe, just maybe, the Republican nominee will run a poor campaign.  If it's Lowden, she has the additional baggage of supporting waste in Yucca Mountain, which is kinda like outlawing tobacco in North Carolina.  It's still not enough to get Reid over the hump, even with that baggage Lowden still would have to campaign badly.  And she can always flip-flop on Yucca, politicians get away with that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 02:58:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Where's Bob Miller?

Former NV Gov, never served in Congress...

Alternatively, I wonder if any of the Texas Hold 'em crew in Vegas have any sort of political experience.

If Barry Greenstein could establish residency in NV, I think he could do well, with his "Robin Hood" of poker credentials.

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by: tietack @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 03:15:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree

That our bench is not too strong in NV. But I'd rather take my chances with someone other than Reid. Of course, if it meant going up against Dean Heller... ugh.

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by: DavidNYC @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 04:42:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The bench is Nevada is plenty adequate

and that would be demonstrated if anyone had the huevos to risk Reid's wrath by merely polling Berkley, Titus, Derby or several others, then we would know how much he underperforms.

Right now the only thing we have is the plainly obvious fact that Oscar Goodman polls far better than Rory Reid.

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by: tommypaine @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 04:51:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's a wonder why there's no

bigger name Republican getting in. I mean, the writing is clearly on the wall for Reid.

All pols are risk averse--except apparently the ones who are clearly going to lose reelection.

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by: andgarden @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 06:35:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dean Heller NOT getting in is the best indication we have

that Reid might still win this thing.  After all, if he were a sure loser, you can bet that Heller would be in already.

Reid is evidently a formidable opponent even when he polls in the 40s.

I'd love to see a poll of Dean Heller vs Catherine Cortez Mastos though.  As the AG, she's the closest to a Blumenthal that we might have.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 08:12:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not actually true, Nevada pols have a weird relationship......

Reid, Ensign, and the House delegation have a weird non-aggression pact.  In fact, Ensign family members and allies have given money THIS cycle to Reid, and Reid if you haven't noticed has been studiously silent on Ensign's troubles.

I don't know the origins of it, but there is an unofficial agreement among these people to leave each other alone.

Indeed, the only "break" in that agreement came in Heller's recent comments critical of Ensign for his scandal hurting the state.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 11:27:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Eh

I sense Heller is waiting for Ensign's open seat. Why waste him on beating a Democrat who will probably lose anyway when you can snatch their best chance for a pickup away.  

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by: DTOzone @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 15:33:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Odd thinking if true

If I was him I would rather not be on the same ballot as Obama but then again it depends on economic recovery by 2012.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 17:13:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Catherine Cortez Mastos is the (Democratic) Attorney General

As I just said above, I'd like to see her in a poll.  I think she probably fits the state better than Shelley Berkley, and I don't want Dina Titus to leave that House seat open this cycle.  I'd rather see Titus run for Ensign's seat in 2012.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

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by: texas dem @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 08:14:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Politico (I know, they could be way off on this) says that Mastos is damaged...

...from accusations of politically trumped up charges against Krolicki, the GOP Lieutenant Governor.  Since the trial judge recently dismissed the charges against Krolicki, it makes Mastos look particularly bad.

Now, where I'm not sure if Politico is right or wrong is whether this is fatally damaging to her.  I haven't read Jon Ralston's take, and he's the best authority in the state on Nevada politics.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 11:29:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There Appear to Be Lots of Democractic Women

How about polling the Controller, Treasurer and AG? All are elected statewide and all are Democrats. Of course there's Speaker Buckley. And there are the congresswomen, though perhaps it's not the best time to bring on vacancies in the House.

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by: armand @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 15:12:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Berkley runs

We won't have any trouble holding NV-1.  It's D+10 and voted 64% for Obama in 2008.  Even Kerry got 57% here.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 16:30:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

alternatives to Reid

Democrats in Nevada actually do have a bench. The difference to other states (like CT) is that it is relatively new and somewhat untestet as most only won office in 2006.

possible alternatives to Reid:

Rep. Shelley Berkley: we wouldn't lose her seat would she run, but she hasn't had a competitive race in a few cycles.

AG Catherine Cortez Masto: won with the biggest margin of any state officer in 2006. problem: her indictment of LG Krolicki has recently failed in court.

Treasurer Kate Marshall: the only Democrat from heavily Republican northern Nevada. As she's from Reno she can more easily compete in Washoe County (Reno).

SoS Ross Miller: son of fmr. Governor Bob Miller, young, won in 2006 against Danny Tarkanian who is currently running for the Republican nomination in the Senate race.

Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley: she has recently decided against running for Governor and is taking a break from elective office to raise her son. Doubtful that she would want to go to DC.

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by: Sven @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 16:47:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dems Need To Accept Reality

They are LOSING this one if Reid stays aboard. I don't know who they could replace him with, but anybody but Reid is the ideal choice right now.

If they don't understand that, then let me say this. I know Reid is a former boxer and that should count in a fight, but being a boxer is totally useless when your opponent is using a submachine gun.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 12:26:07 PM UTC

Reid Guilty of Doing His Job

Let's look at recent history: Dodd and Daschle.

Dodd committed a cardinal sin by moving his family out of Connecticut and basically running a kamikaze presidential campaign. It was my assumption in '08 that he wasn't running for re-election. In fact, I believe he filed campaign paperwork with the FEC at the outset of his presidential campaign that he was not running for re-election in '10 (see "Factual Discussion" here):

http://saos.nictusa.com/aodocs...

Daschle was an obstructionist who got caught up in the Washington lifestyle to the degree that he signed papers attesting to his permanent residency in Washington (see here):

http://www.nationalreview.com/...

Reid isn't guilty of either of these or anything like it. I think the progressives in the blogosphere want him out regardless because he's not "their man." And conservatives don't like him because he's from a swing state. My point is that Reid will weather the storm against token competition. He's fought close elections in '74 and '86, and this situation is nothing new to him. Let's start supporting Reid instead of knocking him down. He needs all the help he can get at this point.

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by: Zeitgeist9000 @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 17:03:21 PM UTC

The trouble is

that there is something in the air that isn't respectful of incumbency.  Maybe even a kind of Zeitgeist.  ;-)

It first came up with Joe Lieberman and Chris Dodd for me.  Now the list seems to be extending- Charlie Rangel and state Senator Onorato in NYC, on the Democratic side.  Harry Reid isn't safe, either, and Colorado Democrats have let go of Bill Ritter.  A whole bunch of Californian state politicians have flamed out too recently.

It's not just Democrats, either.  There seems to be talk in Florida of people feeling the whole state political system as it is to be somehow obsolete and of a time that has passed.  Then we have the teabaggery and the strange point-lacking nature of the Perry-Hutchison argument.

I've come to the thought that it's a loss of perceived relevance and letting go of politicians and politics that have fallen behind some horizon(s) in time.  Which is an unkind ratchet, but it's what progress demands.  

I think the cutoff in practice for Democrats is now around 1985, which means the ethnic and farmer and union championing elected Democrats of the Seventies and early Eighties are now fallen behind the time horizon.  Reid is one of them.  A sense of this might also be what motivated Dorgan to retire.  The generational culture/political division of 1968 inside the Party is still a problem (the people on the far side are the conservative Democrats) but one that is resolving by the dying out of the conservative Democrats.  The division that lies at 1993-94, which is also a generational, cultural, and political one, is getting approached.

Republicans have a similar problem.  They're looking at a cultural Seventies and early Eighties (the teabaggers are their anarchic DFH class) breaking out inside their Party.  With an awful lot of pain about the cultural line at 1968 they spent 40 years defining and whose crossing they internally proscribed absolutely.  A lot of them (voters and politicians) are going to stay on the far side until they die out.  (And fading in numbers they are).  Hence these weird 'prayer meetings' and C Street stuff and all that which points back to 1950-1965 in the country.  And all the Reagan nostalgia and imitation on the other side inside the GOP.  Romney is about the only moderately respectable candidate who can straddle those, Palin the other major one who does (with, er, a bit less respectability).

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by: Baystater @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 18:51:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree you

I agree with you about a generational shift in politics.

The populist red state/swing state Dems of the '70s and the '80s are going by the wayside... The progressive energy in the Democratic caucus has shifted further to the left; the Blue Dogs' influence, for example, has much much diminished in the 111th Congress. Dorgan, Conrad, Baucus, Harkin, Johnson, Bingaman and Reid are all hold-overs from that era. And you're also right, that shifts are happening within the Republican Party, where the Taxed Enough Already folks are putting a major dent in the electoral base of Republican Party candidates for major offices across the country.

I think that the demons from '68 were finally exorcised in last year's primary between Clinton and Obama: that's why the Blue Dogs have little to no influence anymore.

The Republicans have yet to have a civil war as we did last year. You mention the Perry/Hutchison primary in TX. I really don't know what to make out of this race. The commentators are saying Perry has the edge and that his track record in TX will ultimately redeem him in the TEA Partiers' eyes in the March primary and in the GOP prez primary in '12. But with the exception of Hoeven, he's the longest-serving incumbent governor in the country. So his incumbency flies in the face of your anti-incumbency argument which I think is valid but not exactly wholly applicable!

The truth of the matter is that things are complicated right now. I'll know more after the Perry/Hutchison primary because the margin by which the other wins or loses will give me a heads-up as to what the mood is. If it's flat "anti-incumbent," then Perry loses big, and I'll understand why it's important for Reid to hit the highway and for another statewide officeholder in NV on the Dem side to step up. If Perry wins big, I'd have to say all bets are off. Reid will have to study whomever his opponent turns out to be and start hammering them the morning after they win the nomination.

As far as the Republicans who won '93-'94, I would call them your "Joe Scarborough"-type Republicans and they're not feeling the whole TEA Party movement. So you're right there, too, about that division for their side. For our side, the division in the House is the Watergate and Reagan-era Dems who basically are going to have to give up their committee chairs in the next two cycles or so to save the majority: Waxman, Conyers, Rangel, and, until recently, Dingell all fit in this group.

If I were Republican, I'd go with Romney--but the South won't let them do that, and if Romney does get the nomination, Obama will be adding some Southern states to his electoral victory column.

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by: Zeitgeist9000 @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 20:08:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree with most of that

but I don't think the Republican base has the integrity, as such, to not vote for Romney over whatever Democrat.  Defeating liberals and Leftists is more important to them than who they have to vote for to do it.

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by: Baystater @ Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 23:09:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Harry Reid

Harry Reid won't lose to Danny Tarkanian, too much scandal surrounding that guy and a last name will only carry you so far.  If Reid can somehow exploit the radical views of an Angle or the incompetence of a Tarkanian then he will be fine.  Lowden is the one who worries me out of that top group.

What circus that would be.  Gibbons/Rory Reid/Goodman.  If I were a Nevada Dem I would back Goodman regardless of who the other nominees were.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

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by: ModerateIADem @ Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 18:14:27 PM UTC