Google Ads


Site Stats

OK-Gov: More Comfy Leads For Fallin

by: James L.

Mon Jan 11, 2010 at 2:59 PM EST


SoonerPoll.com (1/2-5, likely voters):

Drew Edmondson (D): 39
Mary Fallin (R): 51

Jari Askins (D): 36
Mary Fallin (R): 52
(MoE: ±3.9%)

Primaries:

Drew Edmondson (D): 46
Jari Askins (D): 36
(MoE: ±5.4%)

Randy Brogdon (R): 16
Mary Fallin (R): 68
(MoE: ±6%)

These numbers are pretty close to the general picture we've seen so far: a Fallin internal from June had similar spreads, while PPP had Fallin up by spreads of 10 and 16 points. The interesting thing, though, is that Askins and Edmondson remain pretty well-liked; in fact, Edmondson's favorable rating (51-31) is very close to Fallin's (54-29). Askins is at a pretty decent 43-28. It almost makes you wonder if one of these two leading Democrats might consider running for re-election instead.

RaceTracker Wiki: OK-Gov
James L. :: OK-Gov: More Comfy Leads For Fallin
Tags: , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

OK-Gov: More Comfy Leads For Fallin | 18 comments
no surprise
no surprise here as I think we all know that we're going to lose this one. We'll have our pickups (California/ RI / Connecticut/ Vermont) and they'll have theirs (Oklahoma/ Kansas/ Wyoming)  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
I agree
re-alignment with little or no net gain in partisanship among governors.

R's get KS, WY (barring Freudenthal run), OK, TN, IA, MI, & PA.

D's get HI, CA, RI, CT, VT, MN, AZ & FL.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
I am not comfortable losing PA and MI
Even if we get CA and FL for them. Those two are real valuable on the redistricting table.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
GOvernor
I actually see Culver pulling out a victory come election day. Sure hes unpopular now but given some campaigning on his part and some ads I think he'll pull it out. I have the same opinion of Michigan. Once we get a credible candidate in the race Im sure that Dem will end up winning as well. Pennsylvania on the other hand I can't see us winning. I don't believe we have a credible candidate able to take down the GOp contenders and most likely we'll end up loseing PE.      

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
RI isn't a guaranteed Dem pickup
it's just a 99% guaranteed Republican loss.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
The poll is better than I thought it would be
I know that Oklahoma is about as toxic to the Democrats as any state, so it's impressive that both Democrats are (a) have good approval ratings and (b) are not being blown out by Fallin.

 

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Yeah honestly
These numbers aren't bad at all, and they tell me that perhaps, if the national environment improves a bit, that Edmondson (who I assume will win the nomination) might have a shot at pulling off a monster upset.  Still a long way to go here and Fallin is definitely the favorite, but to only be down 10-12 points here isn't bad at all.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
I agree, the poll is good news
though still we will likely lose.

A good candidate can go from 40 to 45% during a campaign, and a major gaffe from the Rep can get another 5%.  Not likely but possible.

[ Parent ]
One of the two candidates
should run for re-election.  Dems desperately need to keep their bench - which is actually not as terrible in OK as you might think - intact for better election years.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
I wouldn't be surprised to see a Republican sweep of the statewide offices this year
The state has shifted so far to the right over the past few years, and most of the current officeholders only barely squeaked into office. In fact, only two elected in 2006 are not retiring or running for Governor -- the Insurance and Labor Commissioners.
[ Parent ]
Mary Fallin's seat
Could one of them drop down to a run for Mary Fallin's now-open OK-05, the Oklahoma City-based district? As far as I know, we don't even have a candidate, even though it's actually one of Oklahoma's bluest districts. A top-tier candidate could make this seat winnable against the gaggle of mostly lower-tier Republicans.

Unfortunately, Askins is the weaker candidate (Edmondson's won like 5 times statewide, and Askins just rode Gov. Henry's coattails), but her base is in Lawton, which is not in OK-05. Still, I bet she's at least eligible to run.

So I guess if I had my pick of candidates, btw, I would actually go for neither of these two for the seat but Jim Roth, former two-term OKC county commissioner who was appointed to the Corporation Commission and lost narrowly to hold that statewide seat, 52-48%, while actually winning in OK-5. An openly-gay Congressman from Oklahoma would probably make a lot of wingnuts' heads explode.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Who knows the sexuality of Corporation Commission members?
He'd lose 10 points as soon as it was announced, even in OKC.
[ Parent ]
Um, everyone in Oklahoma knew....
It made national news that Oklahoma had their first openly-gay statewide official when he was appointed. He'd previously won two terms on the OKC commission as a gay man.

Being gay doesn't hurt Democratic candidates--when you're regularly called socialist/communist, baby-killing, atheist, librul terrorists, then gay doesn't seem so bad, now does it?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
The poll isnt too bleak for us
but I fully expect Fallin to be the next Gov of OK.  If anything, I can root for her because we need more women governors.  There's my silver lining and Im going to stick with it.

Maybe she'll sign Rep. Kern's bill to ban divorce in the state of OK.  Pick your poison from a google research to read about it.

Whoa
I thought for awhile there Edmonson was considered the front runner?

Yeah, I know it's OK but I thought he was polling well early on.

What happened to this state?

The bottom
fell out basically. Basically the state has realigned with the rest of the south. Sad...Oklahoma was still friendly to Democrats on the local level until reason.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
The conservative Democrat farmers

and farmer's wives are dying away.  Their kids work in Tulsa and OKC and live in megachurch suburbia/exurbia.  And vote Republican because they are upholding true rural American Christian values.
[ Parent ]
OK-Gov: More Comfy Leads For Fallin | 18 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox