Cegelis

How about Christine Cegelis?

I'm proud to work for Gary Peters, because Joe Knollenberg is out of touch.

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by: JordanOOO @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 02:48:50 AM UTC

She won't run.

According to that Tribune article.

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by: James L. @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 02:51:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rahm Emmanuel is dead to me

And why would Duckworth run again? She ended up with a cushy political patronage job at taxpayer expense, and perhaps that may have been all she wanted in the first place. Bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

I hope she does good work in her current position, and forgets about electoral politics. Pity about Cegelis. One can't blame her, either.

Roskam's young. Maybe he'll beat Congressman Young's record for House longevity. Our best hope will be that he can be lured out to run for Senate against a Democrat who can beat him, and lose his seat that way, in some future cycle.

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  

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by: Christopher Walker @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 11:30:49 AM UTC

Cegelis is dead to me

Her primary campaign was pitiful. Her whole campaign was pity me, the big bad DCCC doesn't want me as the candidate boo hoo. Then her unwillingness to endorse Duckworth right after was even worse.

All of my family lives in this district so I know a little bit about the district. My aunt whose lived in the district for the last 30 years explained the difficulty of getting a Democratic Congress person in the district. What she told me is that the district is sigificantly less conservative now than it was when she moved their, and while it still leans GOP the right type of Democrat could get elected. The problem is, the infrastrcture of the district is still all GOP giving them a decided advantage in terms of grassroots organizing so they still have to build from the ground up in that respect. That, and the fact that Roskam outspent her were the reasons Duckworth lost.

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by: safi @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 18:24:45 PM UTC

I agree safi

Even Cegelis supporters admit her campaign was woefully disorganized and self pity is never a winning strategy. What gets me is almost a year and a half later they're still doing it. Just a week ago one of her supporters wanted to rehash the whole sad story with me.

An example of how poor our infrastructure is out here is Bloomingdale township. We have precinct committeemen in 8 of 300+ precincts. We're working every weekend recruiting new ones but we have a long way to go. On the plus side I canvassed up there for Duckworth last fall and had a very positive response. And now it's even better. People are fed up with Repubs in DuPage County and it shows.

 

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by: markg8 @ Mon Jul 09, 2007 at 21:23:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

wacky theory...

but if i were in duckworth's shoes, i *might* be thinking that:

A) the district leans R, and the "waves", such as what happened in 2006, tend not to happen on consecutive cycles in the same districts

B) I would need to stay in the new job a little longer than 6 months before starting to campaign again.  otherwise, i'd open myself to significant criticism about taking a tax payer salary just to support campaigning

C) name ID wasn't the problem--it was demographics of the district

D) If Obama ends up as pres or vp, then there's an opening for  statewide, in which the demographics are far more dem friendly

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There are certainly valid counterpoints to be made to some of these ideas that I think she might be considering.  In the big picture, however, this is possible.  Obama originally lost in a House primary challenge, then went on to get the Senate primary nod. 

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by: Blue Strong @ Tue Jul 10, 2007 at 00:05:47 AM UTC

I think she really likes that job

She's getting a lot done and is getting her name in the news doing it. Besides a Dem president might make her VA administrator or if Obama is elected Blago might appoint her to his Senate seat.

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by: markg8 @ Tue Jul 10, 2007 at 00:27:16 AM UTC

not the obvious choice

if Obama is elected Blago might appoint her to his Senate seat.

The Illinois House delegation includes ten Democrats who might be more reasonable choices.

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  

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by: Christopher Walker @ Tue Jul 10, 2007 at 11:37:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Duckworth would be a great choice

She raised $4.2 million in her first race. For a house seat for cryin out loud.

Besides what makes you think Blago would pick one of Madigan's flunkies Christopher? 

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by: markg8 @ Tue Jul 10, 2007 at 13:57:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think by Illinois

House delegation they meant Congress people.

If Obama did become president I think smart money would be on Jesse Jackson Jr. getting the appointment. I also wouldn't rule out Blago appointing himself.

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by: safi @ Tue Jul 10, 2007 at 19:23:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think he'd pick Lisa Madigan

to keep her from running against him in the 2010 primary.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Jul 11, 2007 at 22:50:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Senate seat possibilities

* Lisa Madigan
* Pat Quinn
* Glenn Poshard
* Jesse White
* Jesse Jackson, Jr.
* Luis Gutierrez
* Dan Hynes
* Alexi Giannoulias
* Jerry Costello
* Melissa Bean

Lots of people are ahead of Duckworth on the list.

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by: Carl Nyberg @ Tue Jul 10, 2007 at 21:26:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK I can see...

...Blago nominating Madigan if he thought he could get some cooperation from her dad and her out of the governor's race forever. I'd like to see Quinn or maybe White move up but
besides Bean who isn't blue enough for you, me, Blago or Illinois who on your list raised as much as $4.2 million on their own in their first race or any race besides Duckworth? She's a national star and it's not just because of her story. Both she and her husband Brian could sell universal healthcare, sane foreign policy and gun control to doctors, Illinois Republicans, and hunters respectively. If she gets that seat she has has it as long as she wants. And Brian's got a bright future in Washington if he wants it too. 

 

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by: markg8 @ Wed Jul 11, 2007 at 01:59:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

well then

If money was all it took to win races then she would have had an outright primary win and won herself a seat in congress last fall, right?

While I'm sure Duckworth is a good person with good intentions (she is a Dem after all) she got a lot of money and hype from the DCCC, she was their preferred face for a challenger nationwide. SHe was getting aid from Rahm Emanuel that no other candidate got. There's where a lot of her money came from. I mean if you want to talk money, Lampson got well over $3 million then DeLay dropped out.

All I'm saying is she raised money because she had some good friends which gave her a good advantage. If it was because she was an Iraq Veteran then Patrick Murphy would have won by a large margin and we'd also have Rep. David Harris.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Wed Jul 11, 2007 at 09:12:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

actually,

Emmanuel wasn't even the one who recruited her. She was "discovered", and asked to run by Sen. Durbin. Emmanuel seized on her perfect profile, (wounded female veteran of the Iraq war, a very appelaing profile becuase it itself appeals to many different Demographics across the spectrum). She raised a lot of money, but had to spend a huge sum of it to fight a primary challenger from a two candidate who had grassroots suppor t but no ability to raise money on her own, you have to have both money and grassroots to win, or at least money and savviness. Roskam raised a shitload of money too, and he didn't have a divisive primary, and the district naturally leans Republican by a significant margin. Duckworth made a lot of common rookie campaign mistakes. She let Roskam direct the debate, and he skillfully did so, pushing the issue away from Iraq and onto illegal immigration and other topics where he had the upper ground. She was forced to spend money debating him on those issues, which he stil won, and she was incapable of hitting him hard enough on iraq to make up for that. She still did better than Kerry, pulling in a razor thin race against the young, savvy State. Sen. Roskam, a prominent political figure, losing 51-49.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Jul 11, 2007 at 20:24:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

From Opensecrets.org

Duckworth raised: $4,563,409 From Individuals:$3,443,597 (81%)
Roskam raised:  $3,443,597 From Individuals:$1,913,064 (56%)

From SSP: 

NRCC IEs for Roskam $3.36M 
DCCC for Duckworth $3.17M

As you can see Roskam also got aid from the NRCC no other candidate got either. This district is bordered on one side by Emanual's and Hastert's on another. It's never elected a Dem in it's history and in DuPage the Repubs have a powerful machine - including the elecion commission - every bit as entrenched as the Dem machine in Cook.

As it was Duckworth raised over a million more on her own than Roskam who had the primary field cleared for him. Rick Carney, one of his aborted primary opponents was bought off with the chairman of the election commission job.

Duckworth spent a lot of money on building the grassroots  organization that doesn't exist here in DuPage to compete with the Repub machine. Roskam was able to outspend her on TV commercials by a wide margin.

The DCCC tv money was misspent on dumb commercials attacking Roskam for supporting guns in schools and banning Dr. Suess and Little House on the Prairie. Why they didn't spend it tieing Roskam to the Repub Culture of Corruption and run that Iraq ad Tammy had in the can I don't know.
 

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by: markg8 @ Wed Jul 11, 2007 at 22:35:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Carl I'd disagree with

A couple names on that list. I definitely agree with you about Madigan and Quinn, but I think Poshard is out of politics for good. White will have his 75th birthday a few days after he's inaugurated. Gutierrez is certainly a possibility although I think him and Jackson are similar in a lot of ways but Jackson would be a stronger candidate. Hymes is definitely a strong possibility, Alexi's proably too green but he's definitely got a bright future. Costello and Bean have no chance for very different reasons. The base would, and rightfully so, throw a fit if Costello was the nominee and Emmanuel won't let him appoint Bean because that seat would almost definitely become GOP if they did.

So, here's a list of people I'd put ahead of Duckworth:
Madigan, Quinn, Jackson, Gutierrez, Hynes, maybe Alexi and Blago himself

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by: safi @ Wed Jul 11, 2007 at 04:28:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]