My entry in the redistricting contest. I manage to create one new Democratic district and eliminate both Republicans, while making most of the vulnerable Democrats safer. Enjoy.
1. (Bishop) East Suffolk same as the current district.
Pop. 706,721. 84%W, 4% Bl, 2% Hisp Obama 52%, McCain 48%
Current District: Obama 52; McCain 48 (same breakdown)
Virtually identical to the existing district; in fact, the only one where I had to remove blocs due to expanded population.
2. (Israel) West Suffolk.
Pop 706,650 72%W, 10%Bl, 14% Hisp Obama 55%, McCain 45%
Current District: Obama 56; McCain 43 (down 1 point)
Adds some South Suffolk blocs; removes the Nassau blocs. More compact and contiguous than the old 2nd, and safe for Israel. I had wanted to push this and the 1st deeper into the current 3rd, but it could not be comfortably done.
3. ( Lowey, King. Advantage Lowey). East edge of Nassau; Oyster Bay and North Shore; Great Neck; Throgs Neck; Long Island Sound; Pelham; New Rochelle; Larchmont; Rye; Harrison; White Plains.
Pop 702,996 79% W, 4%Bl, 11% Hisp Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Current District: None
Here’s where I start to get creative. If we must lose one district, I want it to be the one held by “King Peter”in the current 3rd. However, way out on Long Island like that, contiguous to only a few districts, none of which can afford more Republicans, that’s hard to do. Plus, the upstate districts lost more population than Long Island, and if we started on the other end of the state and worked east, the districts would start to look really unfamiliar by the time we got to Westchester (see what I had to do with Hinchey’s district, for example. That one made it all the way to Westchester!)
The solution is to bring in Nita Lowey from Westchester across the Sound. Lowey is a suburban representative who ought to be a good fit for the Long Island suburbs. The new 3rd is about 1/3 Lowey’s old district, 1/3 of the old 3rd (the north shore is the most liberal part of King’s existing district), and 1/3 other parts of the North Shore, the Westchester shore, and the Bronx shore taken from the Ackerman and Crowley districts, all of which should be more friendly to Lowey than to King. Back in the 1980s, when Long Island was considered a conservative Republican stronghold, a solid North Shore district was comfortably occupied by Democrat Robert Mrazek. Also, this model of the 3rd does go as far west as the Throgs Neck Bridge–though only the north side of it.
4. (McCarthy) South Nassau, including Mineola, Freeport, Levittown, most of the south shore.
Pop 699,475 67% W, 15%Bl, 12% Hisp Obama 56%, McCain 43%
Current District: Obama 58; McCain 41 (down 2 points, still safe)
This one is measured to be about 2/3 within the existing 4th and 1/3 in the 3rd. It’s not in “King Peter”s residential zone, but it does have most of his base. It lops off part of the top of the old 4th to give the Weiner and Ackerman districts room to snake in. Slightly less Democratic, but still safe for McCarthy.
5. (Ackerman) North Queens: Elmhurst, Murray Hill, Littleneck and east into Nassau, then Southward into the current 3rd to Hicksville.
Pop 702,921 49% W, 5%Bl, 22% Asian, 22% Hisp Obama 59%, McCain 40%
Current District: Obama 63; McCain 36 (down 4 points. As it should be; 63 is overkill)
A little more snakelike and gerrymandered than the current 5th, but still recognizably and safely Ackerman’s.
6. (Meeks) Jamaica.
Pop 701,408 15% W, 51%Bl, 17% Hisp Obama 88%, McCain 12%
Current District: Obama 89; McCain 11 (down 1 point)
It would have been much easier to screw “King Peter” and protect McCarthy and Weiner if I had been allowed to tinker with this district. But it was VRA-protected and surrounded by lily-white communities, and so I left it pretty much as is. You’ll notice I did the same with all the other majority-minority districts, all of which look pretty much the same as the old versions. You’ll also notice these districts are the ones most likely to skirt the lower edge of the minimum population requirements. I didn’t want to have to stuff more Democrats into districts that regularly give 70%+ Democratic victories. Good thing disproportionate population increases reduced the need to expand them.
7. (Crowley) East Bronx, LaGuardia airport, Woodside, and east into Queens, short of Nassau
Pop 694,523 28% W, 16%Bl, 37% Hisp Obama 78%, McCain 21%
Current District: Obama 79; McCain 20 (down 1 point)
Messy, but safely Democratic.
8. (Nadler) West side of Manhattan (Upper West, Chelsea, Greenwich, Financial District) plus west Staten Island, made contiguous by the unbroken Jersey shore and by the Staten Island Ferry route.
Pop 694,080 72% W, 7 %Bl, 12% Hisp Obama 72%, McCain 27%
Current District: Obama 74; McCain 26 (down 2 points that are needed elsewhere)
I’ve wanted for a long time to dilute GOP influence in Staten Island by dividing it. Nadler’s west side district is blue enough to absorb it easily, and it’s no more awkward than the existing district that goes into Brooklyn.
9. (Weiner) Centered in Weiner’s native Forest Hills; snakes southwest to Lindenwood, Georgetown, Gravesend, Breezy Point; and east to Utopia, Oakland Gardens, Glen Oaks and Central Nassau.
Pop 702,016 67% W, 3%Bl, 14% Hisp Obama 51%, McCain 49%
Current District: Obama 55; McCain 44 (down 4 points)
Of all districts in this entry, this one satisfies me the least. It takes the biggest and most dangerous hit. Surrounded by the VRA-protected 6th, 10th, and 12th , that gave Obama 70% or better, I had to struggle to get Weiner to a 51% district. There were some South Brooklyn districts that went for McCAIN 90%, and most of them went into the new 9th, the cost of keeping four majority-minority districts in the area and making the 13th safer. It’s a bummer. The possible saving grace is that the conservatives here are divided between orthodox Jews and racist Archie Bunker prototypes, and it’s hard to imagine both groups voting for a single candidate locally. Also, Weiner is popular enough to survive and thrive here; still, there are few excuses for forcing a district this marginal into New York City. If other entries make both this and the 13th more blue-leaning, I’ll be impressed.
10. (Towns) East NY; Bedford-Stuyvesant. Mostly unchanged from the existing Towns district.
Pop 693,765 18% W, 58%Bl, 17% Hisp Obama 90%, McCain 10%
Current District: Obama 91; McCain 9 (down 1 point)
11. (Clarke) Crown Heights, Flatbush. Mostly unchanged from the existing Clarke district.
Pop 694,130 21% W, 60%Bl, 12% Hisp Obama 91%, McCain 9%
Current District: Obama 91; McCain 9 (unchanged)
12. (Velasquez) Lower east side; Williamsburg; Bushwick, Park Slope; West coast of Brooklyn. Virtually no different from the old 12th. In fact, I had a hard time moving even one bloc without going beneath the 46% Hispanic threshold.
Pop 705,533 24% W, 9%Bl, 17% Asian, 47% Hisp Obama 86%, McCain 14%
Current District: Obama 86; McCain 13 (almost unchanged)
13. (McMahon) East Staten Island; Bensonhurst; Coney Island; Sunset Park; Sheepshead Bay.
Pop 706,767 65% W, 6%Bl, 14% Asian, 12% Hisp Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Current District: Obama 49; McCain 51 (UP three badly needed points, converting a McCain district to Obama)
I thought I was going to easily make the 13th more Democratic by dividing Staten Island with the 8th. I learned that a lot of the GOP leanings of the 13th came from the Brooklyn part of the district and that a lot of the neighboring parts of the old 8th and 9th had been put there to safely disperse Republicans in safe Dem districts. I needed to reach as far as I did from South Brooklyn and fill the population to the limit to get there, but the proposed 13th now has a Democratic lean.
I was almost sorry to have a Staten Island Democrat to protect. I had started out watning to bisect SI into the 8th and 14th.
14. (Maloney) East Manhattan from Stuyvesant Town to Yorkville; Roosevelt Island; Astoria. Not much different from the existing 14th.
Pop 698,199 65% W, 6%Bl, 11% Asian, 15% Hisp Obama 78%, McCain 21%
Current District: Obama 78; McCain 21 (unchanged)
15. (Rangel). Upper Manhattan. Harlen, Spanish Harlem, Wash. Hts, Southern edge of the Bronx at Port Morris. Virtually no different from the old 15th.
Pop 694,620 16% W, 30%Bl, 49% Hisp Obama 93%, McCain 6%
Current District: Obama 93; McCain 6 (unchanged)
16. (Serrano) South Bronx. Almost unchanged from the old 16th, and very compact.
Pop 695,862 3% W, 31%Bl, 63% Hisp Obama 95%, McCain 5%
Current District: Obama 95; McCain 5 (unchanged. I wonder who here voted for McCain?)
17. (Engel) North Bronx; Yonkers; Mt. Vernon; west edge of Westchester to Tarrytown; south Rockland County.
Pop 695,193 42% W, 29%Bl, 21% Hisp Obama 71%, McCain 28%
Current District: Obama 72; McCain 28 (almost unchanged)
A little bluer due to packing in more Democrats from southern Westchester. North border follows the existing 17th exactly.
18. (Massa) Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allagheny, Steuben, Chemung, Tioga, Broome, Schuyler, southwest part of Ontario.
Pop 706,906 93% W, 2%Bl, 2% Hisp Obama 48%, McCain 51%
Current District: Obama 48; McCain 51 (unchanged)
I called the Southern Tier district the 18th for continuity’s sake. It might as well be called the 28th and go at the end; however, as the 18th, the only incumbent Democrats whose district numbers are changed are Lowey, Massa and Slaughter.
This is the only district in this redistricting plan that went for McCain (48-51); with the addition of Jamestown on the west and Binghamton on the east, it ought to be a little less red than before. Without the Monroe County suburbs, though, it’s a wash. Well, at least I did not make it WORSE, even while I completely eliminated the GOP-heavy district next door.
19. (Hall) Southeast Dutchess, Putnam, East Westchester (North Salem, Chappaqua, Brewster).
Pop 700,295 76% W, 8%Bl, 11% Hisp Obama 55%, McCain 44%
Current District: Obama 51; McCain 48 (UP 4 needed points)
More compact and Democratic than the old 22nd, this one should make the potentially vulnerable Hall safe. I was tempted to make the district more Westchester-centric, but Hall resides in the part of Dutchess that had to be included.
20. (Murphy) Upper Dutchess, Columbia Rensselaer, Warren, Washington, Saratoga, Essex
Pop 695,099 91% W, 4%Bl, 2% Hisp Obama 54%, McCain 45%
Current District: Obama 51; McCain 48 (UP 3 needed points)
This was the easiest to make Dem friendly of all the marginal newly Dem districts upstate. Poughkeepsie and the Albany suburbs of Rensselaer had been artificially removed to make the district Republican. Put them back, and the natural things to lop off are the Catskill tail at the bottom of the old 20th. The district is more compact and contiguous, and more Democratic. What could be better?
21. (Tonko) Montgomery, Albany, Schoharie,Greene, Delaware, Sullivan, parts of Ulster, Orange and Herkimer.
Pop 701,290 84% W, 7%Bl, 6% Hisp Obama 56%, McCain 42%
Current District: Obama 58; McCain 40 (down 2 unneeded points)
The price of shoring up the 20th and 23rd was to make the Tonko district slightly less safe by adding in a lot of conservative rural territory. But it’s still handily blue.
22. (Hinchey) Scarsdale, Peekskill, parts of Rockland, Orange and Ulster.
Pop 702,909 77% W, 7%Bl, 11% Hisp Obama 57%, McCain 42%
Current District: Obama 59; McCain 39 (down 2 unneeded points)
This one changed a lot. This Borscht Belt district traditionally had Binghamton and Ithaca on the west and stretched to Poughkeepsie with as little in between as they could get away with. I put Binghamton and Ithaca in other districts that needed more Democrats, and compensated by extending a tail of the 22nd deep into Westchester, between the 17th and the 19th. The extent to north Ulster is due to Hinchey’s home base, near Woodstock.
23. (Owens) Clinton, Franklin, Essex, Schenectady, Fulton, Hamilton, St Lawrence, Lewis, Jefferson, most of Oswego, West part of Saratoga.
Pop 707,028 92% W, 3%Bl, 2% Hisp Obama 52%, McCain 46%
Current District: Obama 52; McCain 47 (up 1/2)
Made just a little more Dem friendly. The primary change was the addition of Schenectady and the removal of some conservative western land.
24. (Arcuri) Central New York State: Oneida, Cortland, Madison, Otsego, Chenango, Tompkins, Schuyler, Yates, North-central part of Ontario, southwest part of Herkimer
Pop 699,841 92% W, 3%Bl, 2% Hisp Obama 51%, McCain 47%
Current District: Obama 51; McCain 48 (up 1 point, just like the 23rd.)
This district is made marginally safer for Arcuri, mainly due to the addition of Ithaca.
25. (Maffei) Onondanga (Syracuse), Cayuga, Seneca, Eastern part of Wayne and Ontario
Pop 701,716 87% W, 7%Bl, 2% Hisp Obama 57%, McCain 41%
Current District: Obama 56; McCain 43 (up 2 points)
Slightly more safe for Maffei. The main change was taking the district away from Monroe County and adding some rural blocs. you’d think that would make it more Republican, but no.
26. (Slaughter) Rochester and suburbs, plus Livingston County and West edge of Wayne.
Pop 703,921 78% W, 13%Bl, 5% Hisp Obama 58%, McCain 40%
Current District: Obama 69; McCain 30 (looks like a big dip, until you consider that we’re eliminating the pro-GOP 26th and making two good Dem districts)
Slaughter represented an area like this in the 1990s, and shouldn’t have any trouble keeping this one. The current 28th was one of the big mistakes of the 2001 redistricting, protecting a Republican incumbent at the expense of a safe blue district. See District 28, below, for more. With Lee an insignificant minority party Freshman and the redistricting controlled by Democrats, hopefully they won’t make that mistake again. Slaughter still has a 58% Dem district to work in here.
27. (Higgins, Lee. Strong advantage to Higgins) Entirely within Erie County; includes all of Erie except for the Northwestern part, most of which is in the current 28th. Eliminates Chautauqua County.
Pop 695,556 83% W, 11%Bl, 3% Hisp Obama 56%, McCain 43%
Current District: Obama 54; McCain 44 (up 2 points)
Lee could challenge Higgins here or try to move to the new 28th. Either way, he’d have a hard time holding on. This district is more partisanly Dem than the one Higgins now wins in.
28. (no incumbent) Northwest Erie/Tonawanda; all of Niagra, Genesee, Wyoming counties; NW Monroe.
Pop 694,502 87% W, 8%Bl, 2% Hisp Obama 52%, McCain 47%
Current District: Obama 69; McCain 30 (I’m counting the current 28th as “current” in both this district and Slaughter’s proposed 26th, for lack of an alternative. This district has most of the territory; the proposed 26th has the incumbent; and the goal was the total breakup of the existing 26th, which has no counterpart in this proposal).
This district attempts to eliminate the other GOP-held district in NY and replace it with one approximating the district held by John LaFalce through the 1990s. The new 26th, 27th and 28th try to recreate what the three districts would look like if in 2001 they had eliminated the district now held by Lee instead of the LaFalce district.
OVERALL RESULT: All 28 districts are swing or better, all definitely winnable by Democrats, and all start out with an incumbent Democrat. Big winners include McMahon, Murphy, Maffei, and the Democrat who runs in the new 28th. Owens and Arcuri are marginally better, and Massa is no worse off. Weiner is the only Democrat who is worse off enough to notice, and even he is still slightly blue leaning, in the middle of the city, where he’ll have a LOT of support. Both incumbent Republicans, meanwhile, are…yes, I think “toast” is the operative word.
What do you think?
NY-10 and 11 should be taking the heat off Weiner by absorbing southern Brooklyn in return for black areas. Getting Weiner to 60% is perfectly plausible and you don’t need 60% and 58% black districts.
I also think your improvements upstate don’t make the incumbents as safe as they could. I like what you did with Murphy’s district, but there are a lot that are very marginal and Massa is quite likely to struggle there.
To combine Lowey and King because Lowey would be a strong candidate to beat him. Still, I think Lowey’s district should be a bit more Democratic and I am worried about Massa. Even though he beat Randy Kuhl in a 51-48 McCain district, Massa may lose in a Republican year. I also would be a fan of exchanging the Borough Park precincts with the 11th for some heavily African American areas. For the 13th, I think splitting Staten Island was a good and creative idea but McMahon should have more of the northern part because it is more Democratic. For the part of the 13th in Brooklyn, there are alot of white Democrats in Red Hook, you could have moved part of the district up there.
Overall, good map
If you divide up Staten Island you radicalize an area that feels neglected. And the first area you lose is the swing mid-island that helped drive McMahon to victory in 2008. You also still have the conservative parts of Brooklyn. Not a problem in that McMahon was able to do well in them. But like the mid-island of Staten Island these area Reagan Democrat areas that are perhaps shakier particularly in a bad year than they seem.
You need to at the very least give McMahon more of the Staten Island North Shore and move the Obama vote up from the measelly 52.
One more thing. You’ll also decimate the local Democratic Party which holds 3 of the 4 assembly seats including and especially the excellent (though unfortunately endangered) Janele Hyer-Spencer.
Combining Lowey and King. Hadn’t thought of that one!
I think you overpacked Buffalo a bit and Staten Island does not need to be split to make its district pretty solidly Democratic. Some of the upstate and LI districts are a bit weak, but that tends to happen if you make them relatively more compact.