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KS-02: Kelly (D) Drops Out

by: James L.

Thu Dec 31, 2009 at 12:24 PM EST


More bad news:

State Sen. Laura Kelly (D) just announced she will be withdrawing from the race to face Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-Kan.). She becomes the fifth formidable recruit to bow out in recent weeks.

"I have been forced to make a decision between honoring the pledge I made to the people in my Senate district and my firm conviction that the people of the 2nd congressional district deserve a truly independent voice in Congress," Kelly said in a statement.

It's not yet clear whether any Dem contenders of note will step up to run in Kelly's place. The Topeka Capital-Journal notes that state Sen. Tom Holland had been considering a bid until Kelly launched her campaign; perhaps he may be interested in giving the race a second look.

RaceTracker Wiki: KS-02
James L. :: KS-02: Kelly (D) Drops Out
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KS-02: Kelly (D) Drops Out | 45 comments
"Formidable"
Nice try making out some of these drop outs are a big deal - none of them were going to get close anyway let alone actually win.
2 things
50 state strategy

we won that seat in 2006 and that woman is insane...  The great white hope etc.  She's a mini bachman.  So a well funded candidate could at least draw some RNCC resources.

[ Parent ]
50 state strategy
Brings all the Blue Dogs people complain about. And I seriously doubt many if any of these were likely to get DSCC funds let alone necessitate GOP defense spending.
[ Parent ]
KS-02 is not a lost cause
It's not nearly as far right as some of the Southern seats people complain about, and I really do believe Jenkins can be beat with the right candidate.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Jenkins can lose
The district has a far right base, but the Democratic base in Atchison, Leavenworth, Topeka, Lawrence, and Pittsburg (home of Eugene V. Debs) is still alive and kicking.  The district is highly polarized, however, and any democratic win is going to be pretty razor thin.
We can win this one, but it won't ever be easy to defend.  

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
They're still bad news
One way to mitigate losses is to try to draw away GOP fire, which is what people like Kelly and McDonald could have accomplished. These drop-outs are also bad because they reinforce a narrative that 2010 is going to be a tough year for Democrats.
[ Parent ]
Don't need this
To tell me that.
[ Parent ]
You're playing checkers, not chess.

[ Parent ]
Here's what Im curious about
How often do the national campaign committees spend to defend their own seats because the other party has a good challenger, and are not countered by spending from the opposing campaign committee?

Because even if we draw some NRCC fire away from our vulnerables, I have a feeling the DCCC will spend there as well, which only makes the whole thing even out.

[ Parent ]
The DCCC spent quite a bit of cash in 2008
on guys like Hill (IN-09), Rodriguez (TX-23), Murtha (PA-12), Maffei (NY-25), Mitchell (AZ-05), and Giffords (AZ-08) while the NRCC didn't spend a dime in any of those races... hell, even David Scott (GA-13) got $100K in DCCC help, all because his Republican challenger had raised a few million dollars and was starting to put a scare into him. By running credible challengers in these districts, the NRCC was able to draw away some fire that could have been spent defeating someone like, say, Henry Brown.
[ Parent ]
Assumption: DCCC cash >> NRCC cash
Based on that assumption, it's best to spread Republican efforts as widely as possible, to keep them from focusing their efforts.

ref http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Currently, the DCCC has a 3:1 money advantage.

For Civil War buffs, it's like  what Grant did to Lee, opening battles on as many fronts as possible. Fortunately, in our case, it's money that spreads Rs thin, not cannon fodder.

[ Parent ]
Grant and Lee
First, Grant and the Union troops absorbed a series of "defeats" similar to what deterred previous advances in 1861-63 and kept on coming. Cold Harbor, in particular, would have sent many Union generals back towards DC.  The Wilderness was similar to other defeats.  Grant's character combined with numerical superiority made a difference.

Second, the role of the 180,000 black troops raised by the Union was surprisingly important.  After the worst hour of the war at Cold Harbor (10,000 casualties), Union troops were understandably reluctant to assault entrenched Confederate positions.  Black troops were so gung ho that they were reliable assault forces.

Third, as alluded to above, Sherman was a major psychological weapon against the south.  For the first time in the war, Lee's Army of Northern Virginia suffered serious losses due to desertion in the winter of 1864-65.  He went from about 60,000 troops to something more like 42,000 and the war was essentially over.

Fresh troops means voter registration.  Shame on cutting ACORN loose.  Lincoln, Grant, and Sherman would never do that.

The equivalent of Sherman slicing through Georgia and the Carolinas is California.  Democratic seats with the possible exception of McNerney are safe and there are a lot of targets.  The big three for Republican House seats are Texas, California, and Florida.  Do a Sherman style blitz and watch resources flow back or give up any chance of reclaiming the House.  Great for morale, too (the captures of Atlanta, Savannah, Charleston, and Columbia were huge and Atlanta helped Lincoln win re-election).

[ Parent ]
Georgia was largely undefended
because the Union attacked on all fronts. And leaving Georgia undefended was a choice made by the confederate general on the scene, who wanted to attack other areas.

Psychologically, it is difficult to go after deep R red seats. Candidates in those seats would be like the "gung ho" shock troops to which you allude.

If Republicans choose to not defend their house members in California, (sorta like Hood did with Georgia 150 years ago) then by all means, go after those seats.

But forcing Republicans to make such a choice means deploying all of our resources in all possible districts. That's the only way IMO to take advantage of the greater resources of the DCCC.

[ Parent ]
I'll have you know
I'm playing a highly advanced and very technical game of checkers! :)
[ Parent ]
Heh
The kind of chess that Spock would play in Enterprise rumpus room?

Happy New Year.

[ Parent ]
That would be it
You too.
[ Parent ]
But Kelly was one of the DCCC's best recruits
"Everything is fine, there are no American soldiers in Baghdad, praise Allah"

http://www.welovetheiraqiinfor...

[ Parent ]
Funny
Not. Listen the Dems have a lot of problems and are very likely to lose many seats but unless a throng of incumbents start to retire and/or people like Hamos, Seals, Lentz and Carney suddenly call it quits I seriously don't think it is a big deal whatever the media says. Also remember plenty Dems dropped out during the last two cycles and the party still went on to pick up those seats. And I can think of several Repubs dropping out this cycle for whatever reason.
[ Parent ]
I would welcome Dan Seals dropping out!!!!!

[ Parent ]
I second that


19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Thirded.
And Happy New Year!

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I can't stand Lynn Jenkins
The things she says are so nasty, but then again thats like most republicans. I think that maybe we should recruit Jim Slattery to run.
Slattery won't run
Slattery moved back to Kansas to take that run because he had just a huge dislike for Roberts (from their time in the house).  He told his whole staff that this was his only run and would go back to lobbying if he lost.

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
Yet Another
Things like this are going to add up to use losing a lot of seats and having any real opportunities to gain in any surprises.

29/D/Male/NY-01
Spreading the field is all well and good
But outside of the open seats I really find it hard to justify even the possibility of gains anywhere surprise or not.
[ Parent ]
$$$
It spreads out GOP dollars and makes it harder for them to win more swing seats.  We need to have as many viable candidates as possible run in as many seats as possible.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
Kelly
THis is surely bad news since we need strong Dem challengers in red territory to draw GOP resources.

Off topic but there is a new NH Senate poll out showing Ayotte leading Hodes 43% to 36%.

http://americanresearchgroup.c...  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

WTF
why are there so many right wing pollsters polling and none of the good ones besides PPP polling.  ARG/Zogby/Rasmussen all suck yet they seem to do the majorty of the polling.
[ Parent ]
Not a bad place to be for Hodes
IMO.
[ Parent ]
Isn't ARG...
somewhat decent when it comes to polling New Hampshire, and craptastic when it polls anywhere else?
[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure about that
If you look back to NH-Sen 2008, you'll see some pretty ridic gyrations -- 52-41 Sununu in Dec 2007 (the only poll at the time showing Sununu ahead) compared to 47-33 Shaheen in March 2008. And, indeed, check out the earlier 2007 ARG polls -- they had Shaheen leading by as much as 57-29.

I think ARG just stinks in general, NH or elsewhere.

[ Parent ]
I really love
their poll from early October showing Obama up 8 on McCain in West Virginia. (although to be fair right before the election they showed M+11)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
This poll is actually a lot better than the one ARG did in September
where the margin was technically the same (Ayotte by 7), but the internals show that Hodes is about even with the Independents (instead of losing them by 2:1 margin), but has a lot more Democrats undecided this time.

Of course it also ARG...

[ Parent ]
Tom Holland
Tom was a great fundraiser (during his tenure as a state rep and his state senate run) and a big believer in field.  He touched nearly every door in his district.  He really worked his tail off for that seat.
Laura Kelly didn't really have that reputation.
That being said Tom Holland didn't even when a majority of the vote in the KS-St-03 and won, in part, because of a last minute mailer by Blue Stem PAC (Sebilius) accusing his opponent (Roger Pine) of supporting child molesters because he voted against a crime bill that had increased sentences for sexual predators (but was mostly about releasing some non-violent drug offenders).

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
Super way to start 2010
Gah!! Great...so now the strongest congressional candidate we have in Kansas (fundraising powerhouse state Rep. Raj Goyle) is in the toughest district, KS-04.  Okay, technically, KS-01 is the toughest, but at R+30, I'm not even counting it as a possibility.

Btw, naysayers, KS-02 & KS-03 ARE winnable, especially because Jenkins, who was supposed to be a moderate (and got only 53% in the general, even as a moderate), has turned out to be Michelle Bachmann with a fake tan and worse political instincts. And these districts aren't conservative enough to necessitate a Bobby Bright-style Blue Dog. Boyda was a fairly solid D vote, and Dennis Moore had a very progressive record, especially considering he repped a district that's officially R+4 or so.

On the bright side: if Republicans do capture all four seats, it'll be tough for Republicans to give them additional protection with redistricting. Actually, that's not much of a bright side, is it?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

The thing is
Boyda may not have been perfect but if Dems couldn't hold it in 2008 I don't see anybody winning it in 2010 or beyond when Jenkins has such a moderate reputation.
[ Parent ]
I doubt
she still has that reputation anymore.  Or, she wouldn't, after a decent campaign.  2010, outside of some areas (border south/Appalachia) won't be a horrible year.  Just you see.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Boyda was a safe liberal vote
Even when she probably shouldn't have been. That can work if you really work the media and the district is suited to it, but KS-02 doesn't strike me as one of those.

Plus she refused DCCC support, which was definitely a dumb move. She forgot that you can only run an insurgent campaign when you aren't the incumbent.

[ Parent ]
Boyda a liberal
I don't know what planet you are on, but Boyda was one of the more conservative members of the house.  If memory serves she had a 66% progressive punch rating and her DW read is 0.218  0.751  0.026  0.083 0.467  -246.52863 1362 85  0.834.  This is a little bit to the left of her district, but would put her in the most conservative 1/3 of the caucus.
KS-02 is polarized, there are two large universities and two large military bases.  Perot had his second best CD level showing here in 1992 (there is a fairly large block of anti-incumbent vote no matter what), and Pittsburgh is an old socialist town.
What Boyda was, was a bad candidate.  She didn't communicate well with her constituency, she had a middling position on issues of choice (that the rhetorically pro-choice Jenkins beat her over the head with), she demagogued on immigration and made her re-election campaign all about "bringing home the bacon".  She refused to do one iota of negative campaigning and kept telling the DCCC to get lost.
She was a third-tier amateur candidate that got lucky and barely squeaked by against a nasty, tainted opponent in 2006 and it showed when she ran again.
Again, some people just aren't congressional material.

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
*cough* Mahoney *cough*


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Jenkins the moderate
Jenkins' moderate reputation has flown out the window. She's voted with Republicans overwhelmingly to try to solidfy her increasingly-crazy-eyed base, and has made a number of gaffes (of which Great White Hope is only the most famous).

And actually, Democrats seem to do slightly better in off-year elections in Kansas, generally speaking. Moore first won in 1998, Sebelius in 2002 & 2006, Boyda in '06. Lower turnout means only the most civic-minded vote, upping the percentage of those most likely to vote for the best candidate regardless of their political affiliation.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Still an R+6 seat
She doesn't have to be particularly moderate to hold that.
[ Parent ]
R+6 isn't everything
The R+6 rating is a handy guide to comparing districts, but it's not as accurate when looking at particular districts. History is instructive.

Getting all generic about it, Ryun lost to Boyda because he went from being perceived as plain conservative to ultra-conservative. Jenkins won because she was perceived as a moderate conservative (Jenkins is pro-choice, by the way, in a state where abortion is an incredibly flammable issue...and if you don't believe me, ask the widow of Dr. George Tiller...and GLBT folks should remember Topeka is the proud home of Fred Phelps).

So given the choice between two moderates, Kansans seem to prefer the right-of-center ones. Unless they start to like the Democrat (ie-Sebelius or Dennis Moore). The point is, KS-02 has some liberal spots: Lawrence, Pittsburg, Atchison. Conservative ones: all the most rural and least exurban parts, basically. And swingy ones: Topeka and Leavenworth, possibly Miami County and others in 2010. Turn out the liberals, persuade many moderates and keep the conservatives from turning out in massive droves against you, and a KS Dem is in da House; tough, but in no way, shape, or form unwinnable. Especially against Jenkins.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
It's Not Over In The KS-02
I've been reading the blogs on the news that Laura Kelley has dropped out of the KS 2nd Congressional race. While many believe that a Democrat can't win, I believe that a Democrat can't win if there isn't one running. That's why I am entering the race. Can we win it, yes we can, but there is a lot of work to do in the months ahead. Join me, work hard, play hard, and go for the win.
hudspeth2010@yahoo.com
KS 02
As a former staffer for Cong. Slattery and friend of Nancy Boyda, I know this district is difficult, but a Democrat can win this seat.  Jenkins is not that well thought of, especially by moderate Republicans who now see Jenkins as having moved way to the right on every issue.  A Deomocrat who knows how to campaign and raise some money may surprise the national prognosticators.  But, it will also depend on what happens these next few months with the health care legislation, jobs/economy and possibly the "terror" issue.  These issues may prove decisive on how Democrats in swing districts, and possible swing districts, perform.  If these issues have a positive effect, Democrats may do much better than people are giving them credit for here in January 2010.
KS-02: Kelly (D) Drops Out | 45 comments

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